Posted on 08/06/2016 10:02:53 AM PDT by tcrlaf
An electoral college map released Thursday from the University of Virginia Center for Politics projected Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton winning the November election by a landslide.
UVA altered its map to reflect recent changes in the likely political leanings of certain states, but Clinton still easily came out on top.
Larry Sabato, director of the UVA Center for Politics, explained what made the map different from most polls that reflect the more fickle tendencies of the electorate. The UVA electoral map focused on "the electoral fundamentals and fixed elements of politics that predetermine most votes, especially partisanship, demographics, and strong forces shaping the political landscape."
Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump saw a brief bump in the polls after the party's convention in July, but that lead later slipped as Clinton regained ground after the Democrats' convention the following week
(Excerpt) Read more at finance.yahoo.com ...
From the article:
"It's essential to note that the love-hate feelings for Trump and Clinton are eye-popping, and this unusual factor may distort expectations," Sabato wrote. "Trump in particular is such an outlier or aberration that many standard election models by political scientists may not be able to project the election results as well as they usually do."
More proof we'll have to work hard to get Trump elected. My big fear is vote fraud. The RATS have it down to a science.
Bkmark for nov2016
Sabato from 8/13/2015:
Republicans 2016: What to Do With the Donald?
“Trump is an early season fling for many people, fun while it lasts but doomed to breakup somewhere along the path to the nomination. There have already been some signs this week that his polling may — may — have peaked. Moreover, we need to constantly remind ourselves that few people are paying very close attention to the race right now.
That’s not to say Trump won’t have consequences for the GOP. For example, somehow the party is going to have to reconcile Trump’s supporters with a more establishment nominee. Some candidates will be able to foster unity more easily than others — and this assumes Trump does not run as an independent in fall 2016.
The Summer of Trump is unlikely to turn into a Year of Trump, much less four years of President Trump. Current frontrunner? No question. The Republican nominee for president? Doubtful in the extreme.”
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/republicans-2016-what-to-do-with-the-donald/
rallies mean nothing in the long run....Sarah had big enthusiastic rallies too...
and remember, there is also a set up here for a rigged friggin win for the witch....afterall, she has to be seen as the leading candidate, 20 people at her rallies and all...
just vote people..
..vote..
..get everyone you know of the right mind to vote.
..no more "it doesn't make a differenc"..
..or "its too hard".
..or "they're all the same"..
. or "I'm a Christian and can't vote for Trump"
or "I'm an idiot and can't vote for Trump"....
just get the vote out.....
Larry predicted in 2004 that GW Bush would loose and hit every single TV and radio show peddling his DNC lies.
He was confronted that he worked worked for the DNC
at the time.
Again, Larry was Caught Hiding The Fact He Secretly worked on Jim Webb Campaign but again HIT every single TV and Radio Show promoting himself As a independent Pollster pushing Webb was in a blowout while it's a one point race.
He was caught red handed thatvtime.
He is Documented CON MAN .
Believe nothing from him or Yahoo left wing news run by a 2012 Obama bundler .
Not so sure. Many D’s do not want corrupt Hilliary. Will consider voting for Trump. Here is current ongoing newspaper poll from one of the most liberal counties in America, immediately adjacent to San fransicko ( you may vote very easily right now at www.smdailyjournal.com):
We asked: Which American president of the 20th century would you like to bring back to run in this election?
Poll Results
Opinion Graph Votes
Ronald Reagan
43%
John F. Kennedy
26%
Franklin Delano Roosevelt
17%
Dwight D. Eisenhower
14%
The partisan Sabato and this bogus study (as well as the imminent flurry of other fake polls reflecting The Hag's supposed large lead) are a collusive psyop designed to condition the electorate mice into swallowing another Hillary pellet.
Now here's Sabato's disclaimer after Trump wins (from the "No sh**, Sherlock" File):
Sabato: "Trump in particular is such an outlier or aberration that many standard election models by political scientists may not be able to project the election results as well as they usually do."
Well if you give OH, FL and PA to Hillary, then yah, she wins.
Duh.
This analysis is really stupid because the chances she wins all 3 of those states is about zero.
Larry is A pathological liar and hard core DNC propagandist .
Which makes folks like me ask if the corruption in polli will precede an intended computerized corruption in the voter terminals since paper is now conviently not to be found anymore?
Larry is not the sharpest knife in the drawer
http://radio.foxnews.com/2015/03/24/dr-larry-sabato-ranks-2016-gop-presidential-hopefuls/
“As far as candidates who he thinks have a real shot at getting nominated, Dr. Sabato says Scott Walker is “impressive,” and points out that Marco Rubio has a “raw ability” that make them his two top pics under Jeb Bush. “
I think we make a big mistake by looking at these rallies as an indicator.
I agree with you to an extent. I don’t see enthusiasm for Hillary at either her rallies, on the backs of cars, in yards, or in general. However, I don’t think that will make much difference on election day. The rats have a built in advantage of guaranteed voters and it’s been very effective for them. In fact, one can almost say they have taken old school Tammany Hall politics and used that plan throughout large cities in the U.S.
This is a very unique election, but I fear too many are putting too much confidence in the novelty of our candidate. Trump has a persona and message that may well gain him votes that polls won’t capture - even from traditional democrats. He also has a persona that may lose him votes in ways that polls won’t capture among the squishy middle and traditional republicrats.
Based on the swing state focus at this point by both campaigns they believe it is going to be close and they view this as a traditional election. If that is the case - the advantage is hers - warts and all. Trump is going to have to perform well for the duration.
Every election we hear about the apathetic who don’t vote that would likely agree with us. While I believe they do exist, I won’t believe it until I see it with my own eyes. Trump got a whole bunch of primary votes and clearly there was great enthusiasm for him, but was it enough to overcome the Tammany Hall machine she has in her pocket and the lying media?
I caught the sarcasm, and I agree.
Not only do I suspect the methodology of the polls and the agenda behind it, I also think it might work against Hilldabeast.
The left depends on a motivated underclass that might not be as inspired by a aging white female candidate as they were for the first minority president. In fact, they might be more motivated by a vocal, colorful and bluntly honest Trump, who is an outsider to all sides and seems to honestly speek his mind, even if it sometimes causes him trouble.
off topic, but Hillary looks terrible nowadays.,
Yes, I know she’s 68 years old, what do you expect, etc.
Yes, I know liberals would howl if you say anything, because you aren’t supposed to take note of a woman’s appearance and all that.
But you wonder about her health and vigor, if you can put it that way.
Trump is about the same age as Hillary and Bill, but he looks to be in much better health, and much more energetic, than Hillary is.
I think there’s a reason why Hillary has her campaign events only on certain days, never on consecutive days.
“Currently one election betting site has HC at 1/4 and DJT at 11/4.”
That’s not a bad bet.
If you bet $1000 on Trump and when he wins, you would win $2,750.00
You could bet $10,000 and when Trump wins, you would win $27,500.
“Currently one election betting site has HC at 1/4 and DJT at 11/4.”
That’s not a bad bet.
If you bet $1000 on Trump and when he wins, you would win $2,750.00
You could bet $10,000 and when Trump wins, you would win $27,500.
People have "embraced the suck."
you cannot rig an election if everyone belies your opponent has an overwhelming lead on you.
expectations must see the race as ‘close’ so you can rig it, allowing your guy to win by a slim margin
no one screams about a close race when it was expected. everyone will go nutz if they believe Trump was up by 20% but lost by 3%
At this point, I wonder about how they're planning to manage the fraud at the precinct level.
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