Posted on 07/15/2016 8:13:13 PM PDT by dayglored
All that nagware hasn't worked
When Windows 10 launched, Microsoft claimed it would have the new operating system on a billion devices by mid-2018. That isn't going to happen, however, Redmond has now admitted.
For the past year, Microsoft has offered the new OS as a free upgrade for both desktop and mobile users (provided the phone can handle it in the latter case), and has been pushing it for Internet of Things makers. However, so far the OS is only on 350 million monthly active devices, and Redmond says it needs more time to hit ten figures.
"We're pleased with our progress to date, but due to the focusing of our phone hardware business, it will take longer than FY18 [the year to July 2018] for us to reach our goal of one billion monthly active devices," a spokeswoman told The Reg.
"In the year ahead, we are excited about usage growth coming from commercial deployments and new devices – and increasing customer delight with Windows."
The admission shows that the persistent nagware on PCs for users of Windows 7 and 8.1 hasn't worked, despite Microsoft attempting some fairly underhanded tactics to get people to upgrade, and may have soured some on the OS.
Enterprises, which were thought to be big believers in the new operating system, have also been unimpressed. Sure, there are pilot programs running in many companies, but IT managers have shown little willingness to do a mass upgrade when earlier operating systems are still working well.
The other failure point is with Microsoft's mobile strategy, or lack of one these days. Windows Phone sales are cratering, it's not a popular OS with vendors, and although Microsoft says it is still developing the platform, their OS is short on apps and customers.
Microsoft can expect an upsurge in Windows 10 installations from PC users toward the end of the month, when the free upgrade offer ends. But with PC sales disappointing, mobile users a dying breed, and enterprise not biting yet, it's clear Microsoft will need longer than two years to hit the billion mark. 2020 perhaps?
As of now it isn’t the best mobile OS, IMO, but it is on a path to be the best mobile OS in 2017-18.
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I don’t know how you get that. iPhone and Android is it. There’d have to be some nuclear warhead exchange for those to be replaced by anything, even Windows.
What was your first job in 1980?
Where the “Windows 10 subscription” stuff comes from:
Let’s do the Google thing.
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=windows+10+subscription
It’s half and half on the results.
The ones who say “NO!” are pointing strictly at the Enterprise version and denying any slippery slope.
The ones who say “YES!” are saying yes, it’s just on the Enterprise version now, BUT you KNOW how Microsoft is, then “SLIPPERY SLOPE!”.
I’ve got contingencies for either outcome.
If they leave Windows 10 Home users alone, then I don’t have to do anything.
If they decide to foist a $7 per user/machine/core/cupcake or whatever monthly charge on me, I’m switching over to Linux Mint and trying to escape contracts taken out on my life by my wife who only knows MS Office 2003-2010 and doesn’t recognize OpenOffice or LibreOffice as valid software.
Windows for Mobile? Well, "best" is a term about quality, not deployment or acceptance. A lot of people believe (with reason) that Unix/Linux is the "best" operating system, and it owns the majority of the server market. Yet it's less than 1% of desktops -- it's a complete failure in that market, when taken by that measure.
If in your opinion Windows for Mobile is the "best" mobile OS, that's fine, opinions vary and everybody's got one.
But the chance of Windows Mobile getting serious market traction in the presence of iOS and Android is about the same as Linux "taking over the desktop" while Windows is around. Not holding my breath.
"This is the year of the Linux desktop" has become a standing joke among Linux fans. Not about quality, just percentage uptake.
"This is the year of Windows Mobile" has just about achieved similar status. And again, not about quality, just percentage uptake.
Being the best doesn’t always equate to being the most popular. No doubt that Android and iOS are firmly entrenched, especially Android. It isn’t obvious to many yet, but Apple is in a very precarious position with the absence of innovation to sustain the magic. Microsoft and OEM partners are focusing on mobile solutions for the enterprise and professional class users, a la the Surface product line. As of now I don’t see Microsoft making phones for the consumer market, but OEMs partners, such as Acer, probably will.
In 1980 I worked as an entry-level programmer at a Sperry-Univac (Unisys) manufacturing plant.
No, you don't, not as of now. But, it's not from a lack of trying.
Indeed, best does not always equate to most popular.
I think Windows Mobile can be successful in the enterprise and the professional class (a la Surface). The consumer market is a different story however; I don’t see Microsoft ever making a consumer phone, so it will be up to OEM partners, such as Acer, to make the push there.
That’s true, they did try and, unfortunately, had to write off over $7 billion.
Being the best doesn’t always equate to being the most popular.
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In private enterprise, that’s exactly what it means. Market share is the lifeblood of a product, until that product is surpassed by another product that pioneers an entirely new paradigm.
You no doubt remember the VCR format war. Who won? When that format winner finally succumbed to oblivion, was it the other format that took its place? No, it was a radically different technology that did.
Until interfaces for mobile products change in a similar radical fashion, iOS and Android are it. Android in particular, since it is based on open source code.
Surface, until it does something entirely novel, has no future.
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As of now I don’t see Microsoft making phones for the consumer market, but OEMs partners, such as Acer, probably will.
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No doubt Microsoft will keep a very tiny share of the market for awhile, like Sculley’s Apple desktops and IBM’s OS/2 Warp. But Microsoft missed the boat, and unlike the browser wars of the mid-90s, there’s no amount of money that can make that boat turn back around.
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In 1980 I worked as an entry-level programmer at a Sperry-Univac (Unisys) manufacturing plant.
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Business programmer or raw-meater?
So then you extrapolate from there that MS will certainly roll it out to the home user population, only not as an option, but as a requirement. Right.
“So then you extrapolate from there that MS will certainly roll it out to the home user population, only not as an option, but as a requirement. Right.”
Exactly! How else can they make money on Windows 10? ;-)
So then you extrapolate from there that MS will certainly roll it out to the home user population, only not as an option, but as a requirement. Right.
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No, I didn’t extrapolate anything. Don’t read things that aren’t there, please.
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In 1980 I worked as an entry-level programmer at a Sperry-Univac (Unisys) manufacturing plant.
Business programmer or raw-meater?
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Well, are you going to answer?
Sure you did. The only mention online by MS of subscription fees is as an Enterprise option. Nothing about home users. Yet you claim it's a done deal. Why?
Sure you did. The only mention online by MS of subscription fees is as an Enterprise option. Nothing about home users. Yet you claim it’s a done deal. Why?
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Here’s the post again for your review:
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Where the “Windows 10 subscription” stuff comes from:
Let’s do the Google thing.
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=windows+10+subscription
It’s half and half on the results.
The ones who say “NO!” are pointing strictly at the Enterprise version and denying any slippery slope.
The ones who say “YES!” are saying yes, it’s just on the Enterprise version now, BUT you KNOW how Microsoft is, then “SLIPPERY SLOPE!”.
I’ve got contingencies for either outcome.
If they leave Windows 10 Home users alone, then I don’t have to do anything.
If they decide to foist a $7 per user/machine/core/cupcake or whatever monthly charge on me, I’m switching over to Linux Mint and trying to escape contracts taken out on my life by my wife who only knows MS Office 2003-2010 and doesn’t recognize OpenOffice or LibreOffice as valid software.
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I have extrapolated absolutely nothing. I have not claimed anything was a done deal.
Reading comprehension is a very valuable, yet rare, skill it seems. Try it, you may like it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~As time permits. Both, mostly manufacturing, accounting and HR.
In 1980 I worked as an entry-level programmer at a Sperry-Univac (Unisys) manufacturing plant.
Business programmer or raw-meater?
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Well, are you going to answer?
Being the best doesn’t always equate to being the most popular.The irony of vinyl, cassette tape, and VHS is that today nearly everyone simply streams or downloads music and video from the cloud. I understand your point, however I think that the Surface has done something novel: it established the 2-in-1 category and is a growing (in a shrinking PC market) billion dollar business for Microsoft.
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In private enterprise, that’s exactly what it means. Market share is the lifeblood of a product, until that product is surpassed by another product that pioneers an entirely new paradigm.
You no doubt remember the VCR format war. Who won? When that format winner finally succumbed to oblivion, was it the other format that took its place? No, it was a radically different technology that did.
Until interfaces for mobile products change in a similar radical fashion, iOS and Android are it. Android in particular, since it is based on open source code.
Surface, until it does something entirely novel, has no future.
As of now I don’t see Microsoft making phones for the consumer market, but OEMs partners, such as Acer, probably will.Success is never a sure thing. By this time next year we should know if Microsoft's newest strategy for Windows Mobile has merit.
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No doubt Microsoft will keep a very tiny share of the market for awhile, like Sculley’s Apple desktops and IBM’s OS/2 Warp. But Microsoft missed the boat, and unlike the browser wars of the mid-90s, there’s no amount of money that can make that boat turn back around.
Both, mostly manufacturing, accounting and HR.
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That’s not raw-meater fare, bud. That’s business programming.
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The irony of vinyl, cassette tape, and VHS is that today nearly everyone simply streams or downloads music and video from the cloud.
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That’s my exact point. Today, most people can’t even name the winner or its opponent in the VCR format war.
For a fictional example, let’s make the mobile market competition between EasyOS, CheapOS, and TilesOS.
EasyOS and CheapOS are the first 2 OSes out the door, and claim over 90% market share between the 2 (let’s say around 40% for EasyOS and 53% for CheapOS - much like the early market share for VCR formats).
TileOS market share is less than 10%.
Now, how can TileOS break out of the market share basement? Only if the technology radically changes and they are on top of the wave of change, OR a major price point movement.
The prices are bottoming out because costs for mobile technology are slashed pretty low. So that’s a no go.
If mobile technology went to, say, surgical implants or some other direct neural interface and TileOS pioneered it, TileOS becomes the new leader. Otherwise, TileOS eventually meets dustbin of history, to be socked away in a museum alongside an EasyOS device and a CheapOS device, while everybody laughs at them being displayed in their neural streams via NerveOS.
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I understand your point, however I think that the Surface has done something novel: it established the 2-in-1 category and is a growing (in a shrinking PC market) billion dollar business for Microsoft.
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Apple beat them to the punch by at least 2 years with the original iPad. Not that I care about Apple products, since I own none of them.
Before that there were oddball little tablet convertibles, like Fujitsu had back in the 1990s. And who can forget the PDA craze? Microsoft had some market share in the latter, but PalmOS was it back then, because of - you guessed it - the interface.
You are correct that Microsoft will enjoy growth in the tablet sector, but that entire sector is experiencing growth - a rising tide that lifts all the boats, not just Microsoft’s.
In other words, neither of the things you mention are truly novel.
I predict the fate of IBM for Microsoft in the next 10 years. Sad, really.
Both, mostly manufacturing, accounting and HR.It got pretty raw when 2-foot high printed core-dumps (Univac octal code) landed on my desk. My first assignment was to convert hundreds of DoD COBOL programs to the newly minted ANSI COBOL standard. Besides the differences in syntax, the compilers produced different output, so I had to delve into machine code a lot.
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That’s not raw-meater fare, bud. That’s business programming.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~The next UI phase looks to be augmented/virtual reality (AR, VR) and voice. Voice isn't new but it hasn't worked that well until recently; Cortana, Google Now, and Siri are improving. The race is on and Microsoft is in a good spot to capitalize.
The irony of vinyl, cassette tape, and VHS is that today nearly everyone simply streams or downloads music and video from the cloud.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
That’s my exact point. Today, most people can’t even name the winner or its opponent in the VCR format war.
For a fictional example, let’s make the mobile market competition between EasyOS, CheapOS, and TilesOS.
EasyOS and CheapOS are the first 2 OSes out the door, and claim over 90% market share between the 2 (let’s say around 40% for EasyOS and 53% for CheapOS - much like the early market share for VCR formats).
TileOS market share is less than 10%.
Now, how can TileOS break out of the market share basement? Only if the technology radically changes and they are on top of the wave of change, OR a major price point movement.
The prices are bottoming out because costs for mobile technology are slashed pretty low. So that’s a no go.
If mobile technology went to, say, surgical implants or some other direct neural interface and TileOS pioneered it, TileOS becomes the new leader. Otherwise, TileOS eventually meets dustbin of history, to be socked away in a museum alongside an EasyOS device and a CheapOS device, while everybody laughs at them being displayed in their neural streams via NerveOS.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Two points: iPad YoY sales has been declining, and it is a great portable consumption device but good for only very light productivity work, mostly due to the limitations of iOS. The Surface and OEM 2-in-1s are very good for consumption and work.
I understand your point, however I think that the Surface has done something novel: it established the 2-in-1 category and is a growing (in a shrinking PC market) billion dollar business for Microsoft.
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Apple beat them to the punch by at least 2 years with the original iPad. Not that I care about Apple products, since I own none of them.
Before that there were oddball little tablet convertibles, like Fujitsu had back in the 1990s. And who can forget the PDA craze? Microsoft had some market share in the latter, but PalmOS was it back then, because of - you guessed it - the interface.
You are correct that Microsoft will enjoy growth in the tablet sector, but that entire sector is experiencing growth - a rising tide that lifts all the boats, not just Microsoft’s.
In other words, neither of the things you mention are truly novel.
I predict the fate of IBM for Microsoft in the next 10 years. Sad, really.
It got pretty raw when 2-foot high printed core-dumps (Univac octal code) landed on my desk. My first assignment was to convert hundreds of DoD COBOL programs to the newly minted ANSI COBOL standard. Besides the differences in syntax, the compilers produced different output, so I had to delve into machine code a lot.
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Nasty. I never delved into compilers myself, closest I ever got to being a raw meat dude was 370 Assembler in school. Left a bad taste in my mouth and a fear of rubber rooms.
Ever since then, it’s been strictly RPG III and its descendants on IBM midranges. Been trying to learn the nuances of MS SQL Server, but my old brain is not as nimble as it used to be.
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The next UI phase looks to be augmented/virtual reality (AR, VR) and voice. Voice isn’t new but it hasn’t worked that well until recently; Cortana, Google Now, and Siri are improving. The race is on and Microsoft is in a good spot to capitalize.
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Once again, Android and iOS has a headstart there - witness Pokemon Go. If Microsoft can pull an API miracle out like it did with 3D graphics and hardware-accelerated audio back in the late 1990s, it’s in a good position. Otherwise, it’s more of the same.
I’ve seen voice-recognition over a decade get incrementally better, but it’s still not 100%. My wife, with her backwoods country accent, still can’t get Google Now to recognize about 30% of what she says. Haven’t tried Siri or Cortana. Online reviews seem to rank Cortana at the bottom of voice recognition accuracy compared with the other two.
The biggest asset that Microsoft has is what I hinted at with my wife: Office, in particular Outlook. There are numerous Office clones out there, mostly free, but none of them have a comparable equivalent to Outlook.
Behind the scenes, Outlook is a piece of junk, but users find it irreplaceable because it does everything they want and does it the way they want.
And it’s a pain to use Outlook on anything smaller than a laptop. Hence, Surface.
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