If This Is an ‘Economic Recovery’ — What Will the Next Recession Look Like?

nationalreview.com ^ | 07/10/2016 | George Will

[massmike]

America’s economy has now slouched into the eighth year of a recovery that demonstrates how much we have defined recovery down.The idea that essentially zero interest rates are, after seven and a half years, stimulating the economy “strains credulity,” says James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. But last month he and other members of the Federal Reserve Board understandably felt constrained to vote unanimously to continue today’s rates for an economy that created just 38,000 new jobs in May, and grew just 0.8 percent in the first quarter, after just 1.4 percent in the previous quarter.

The grim news is not that the economy continues to resist returning to normal. Rather, it is that this “current equilibrium” (Bullard’s phrase) is the new normal. If 2 percent growth is, as he says, “the most likely scenario” for the foreseeable future, the nation faces a second consecutive lost decade — one without a year of 3 percent growth.

With the recovery aging, Larry Summers, former treasury secretary, guesses that “the annual probability of recession is 25 to 30 percent.” When it arrives in a near-zero interest rate environment, the Fed’s monetary policy, normally its countercyclical weapon — it usually reduces rates at least four percentage points in a recession — will be unable to cushion the shock. Bullard says “labor market data is giving us different” — he means more encouraging — “signals than the GDP data.” But surely the fact that the official unemployment rate is down to 4.7 percent is less important than this: The workforce-participation rate has plunged, which has been only partly because of the population aging — Baby Boomers retiring. If labor participation were as high as when Barack Obama became president, the unemployment rate would be over 9 percent.

[Steely Tom]

Venezuela.

[mjp]

we will go from economic stagnation to utter absolute decline and decay and impoverishment

[Cowboy Bob]

George Will is now writing about Economics? I guess because no one cares any more what he thinks politically!

RINO loser!

[FlingWingFlyer]

Minorities, women and children hurt the most. But they don’t care, they’re going to vote for the Clintoon Crime Syndicate anyway.

[combat_boots]

Soros’ own words were/are “managed decline.”

[Popman]

If only those evil republicans passed all the Obama economic agenda, we won't be in this mess...

Seriously, Obama is the smartest guy ever to hold the White House as well having a very nice pant crease, which makes him far more qualified to understand the economy than say Friedman, Hayek, Laffer, Sowell, Williams...etc...

These guy's are just wrong...history had proven again and again how wrong they are...

These economist who Obama listens to are brilliant compared to that list: Krugman, Reich, Marx, Keynes...

/ S

[eyeamok]

Keep Pimping for Hillary Mr Will, and you will find out real soon. Go Trump!

[Popman]

George Will is now writing about Economics?

He does seem to have a grasp of the current situation...

Which sort of boggles the mind considering he is virulent anti - Trump..

He can't possibly think Hillary will turn the economy around...

[goodnesswins]

Little late to the party, Georgie

[TwelveOfTwenty]

The ‘real’ unemployment rate is still close to 10%

[Vendome]

Early stage Alzheimer’s.

Moments of cogent clarity and back to a blank slate...

[Kenny500c]

I am old enough to remember the classic cure for slow growth/recession/depression was a tax cut to stimulate the economy. An across-the-board tax cut, not the targeted (crony) type favored by the liberals.

Name me one Democrat advocating a true tax cut? They all want to increase the deficit.

[faithhopecharity]

North Korea, Venezuela, Communist Cuba, >
?

we have 100 million adult working age Americans unemployed and more working little part-time gigs trying to survive

thanks largely to Obama’s anti-America, anti-jobs, anti-business regime

weaken America before destroying it outright, soften it up by reducing the morale of its people and their productive capacity

[TribalPrincess2U]

https://p2alm.com/2013/03/24/george-soros-talks-about-how-a-managed-decline-of-the-us-dollar-is-necessary-and-desirable-in-order-to-bring-about-a-global-currency-what-more-needs-to-be-said/

[Joe Boucher]

8 years of this unAmerican marxist a-hole doing his best to muck things up.
Possibly more of the same under the hildabeast, it is all to be expected.
Keep electing these vermin there dumb asses.

[servantboy777]

I've been following the market indicies for a year or so...8 of 10 reports from GDP to Durable goods, from various manufacturing indexes to housing....look pretty crappy and moving more negative by the month. Many analyst throw up hands full of glitter every time a report comes out that looks anywhere near positive.

Analyst also give their projections on various reports and usually come in waaaaaay off. The bright side of their analysis...they often set really really wide consensus estimates so their projections fall somewhere between the hi and the low, typically closer to the low end.

Anyhow, sorry for the length. This market is being propped up by central banks, manipulations and deceptive gubbamint reports. After the election or shortly before, take care, the markets will likely begin a downward tick...bouncing along the way. I think we are already in the beginnings of the next recession and I also believe she’z gonna be a doozy this time round.

[<1/1,000,000th%]

This is the worst US depression since Jefferson was President.

[Georgia Girl 2]

We are supposed to be in the next recession by August. Not that we will be able to tell the difference.