Ted Cruz supporters at this point are voting for the GOP Establishment to Choose the nominee.

self / opinion ^ | 4/1/2016 | Jack Black

[Jack Black]

There are only two choices remaining for how the GOP Nomination process goes.

• One, probably the less likely option, is that Trump secures enough delegates in the rest of the contests to put him over the top and he is nominated on the first ballot in Cleveland.

• The second is that the GOP Establishment, led by Mitt Romney, Carl Rove and others succeed in making it an open convention and choosing the nominee there.

There is no possibility of either Cruz or Kasich winning the nomination by delegate votes on the first ballot, so both of them are working to prevent Trump from reaching that threshold, and then hoping they are the choice of the open convention that results.

It's hard to handicap who walks out of Cleveland with the crown if we go in with Trump short of 1237 delegates.

What we do know is that the party is being extra-crafty to put party loyalists into as many of those delegate slots as possible. Some of those faux-Trump delegates may well support Cruz, but it's more likely that many are Romney era or even older GOP establishment types.

Do you know your county GOP chair? Those are the type of people who will be deciding the nominee in an open convention.

I think Cruz's chances of winning the nomination on a second or subsequent ballot are pretty poor. He's not loved by the GOP establishment, in fact some say he's liked less than Trump. Having pulled off a great political coup, with the open convention, you can be sure that the powers that be will not settle for Cruz.

This will be the golden opportunity to seat someone they really like.

My guess is Paul Ryan is that guy.

My serious question to Cruz supporters (and Kasich too if there are any here) is: do you prefer having the GOP Establishment pick the nominee to Trump?

And, secondly, if you will stipulate for the sake of discussion that Cruz is unlikely to be the guy, who do you want the GOP Establishment to choose?

[InterceptPoint]

So 43% of the delegates ARE required to vote for their candidate after the first round. I have not heard that. Source?

I really don't recall. Rush possibly or Mark Levin. You are smart to question it. It sounds right but I can't guarantee it. In any case the GOPe is going to have to get a large chunk of delegates to change their mind if they are going to push anybody but Cruz or Trump down our throats.

[Durbin]

It was the name of my dog that passed away and I don’t know how to change it. And it really doesn’t matter to me at this point what my screen name is. LOL

[Belteshazzar]

“They cannot get past Trump’s lack of ideology, his past, his personality.”

This is actually a very accurate summary of what ails the GOP primary this year. Cruz is an imperfect candidate and Trump is an unknown candidate.

Kasich is just the northern version of JEB! He is not part of my calculus.

I am one who just can’t get past the very things you cite. Trump, it seems to me, is like the Affordable Care Act as Nancy Pelosi assured us: “We’ll have to pass it to see what is in it.” We would have to elect him to see what he is. I am not comfortable with that, and not optimistic..

That said, would I vote for Trump to stop Hillary? Yes, of course, to do otherwise is just stupid. What we would get with Hillary is not in doubt ... Obama’s third term. But I would vote for Trump in the general with many, many doubts. I don’t like him. I don’t trust him. I think he will be an easy target for Hillary’s goons. He is an even less able debater than she. I do not see him winning the general.

So, Trumpsters, get angry with me, if you must. But your anger won’t do much good. People with whom you do not already agree will not be persuaded by anger. They will only be persuaded by well-reasoned rational argument. And the only one who can do that is Trump himself. Trump must define his ideology. He must explain his past. And he must show himself to be of the right demeanor to be president. Failing that, I see no good outcome with Trump as the nominee.

[jjotto]

I am not aware of any state rules that permit first-ballot abstaining by committed delegates. Do you have a source?

The first ballot will be a roll call of states, with a state delegation spokesman announcing the vote as determined by state rules.

[TigerClaws]

Cruz is delusional to think he won’t be cast aside at the convention.

He may have also been threatened.

1. Ted’s health insurance is via his wife’s job at Goldman Sachs. She’s the money maker in the family.

2. He needs donations. The establishment could primary Ted and knock him out of a job.

3. They might have details on the cheating scandal to hold over him.

[VerySadAmerican]

The DNC can challenge him fifty times based on his lack of meeting the qualifications.

Cruz doesn’t even qualify to be on the ballot at the republican convention. He hasn’t won 8 states, right?

[Just mythoughts]

It was the name of my dog that passed away and I don’t know how to change it. And it really doesn’t matter to me at this point what my screen name is. LOL

Thank you for explaining.. I will try and remember when I see the name.

[JustSurrounded]

Boy, what a mess. Frankly, I hadn't been paying too much attention to Kasich. I suppose I really should read up on him and his positions a bit.

[euram]

Cruz and Kasich are both tools, they know it, but they both don’t mind being used to manipulate the race for the establishment. Of the two, Kasich is the most likely real choice of the establishment, but Cruz, for all his talk of being an “outsider” is really an insider. They’ll pick Cruz over Trump, because they know that he’ll play ball with them, whereas they suspect that Trump would be less easily controlled.

[ground_fog]

the only solution if they take it from Trump is to completely crush the GOPe in November..and I’m prepared to help even by voting D. The stink in the GOP is so bad the only solution is to give the democrats everything and hopefully collapse the country. I will pray for Americas complete and utter collapse..I just hope it’s quick. maybe that will wake people up.

Cruz will not have earned the nomination..period. he is a neocon and agrees with the GOP he’s just an whole about it

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

So how about this scenario - Rubio has not released his delegates, so still controls them for the first ballot. Suppose Trump and Rubio were to strike a deal, with Trump offering Rubio VP for his support on the first ballot.

If Trump has 1066 delegates or more, but falls short of the 1237, Trump plus Rubio delegates puts Trump over the top. Their combined delegate strength would also put them in control of any rules changes at the convention, blocking establishment attempts to name their own choice.

[FreeReign]

In any case the GOPe is going to have to get a large chunk of delegates to change their mind if they are going to push anybody but Cruz or Trump down our throats.

At this point, I'm thinking that too.

I will need to get more info though.

[GGpaX4DumpedTea]

At which time, they’ll chuck Cruz aside like a cheap Trollope, and install their preferred candidate.

According to the National Enquirer, Cruz has a lot of experience with 'cheap Trollopes' :)

[MarMema]

I think it was the website for a contested convention the GOP just put up.
Something here or there that I read just in the last few hours.

[MarMema]

It differs state to state what the delegates can do. I think there was a good thread here this morning with the details. Or it is on the GOP contested convention website..

[MarMema]

I hope he just goes back to his life. He will be 70 this summer. He deserves to leave this crap behind and has the money to enjoy the last years.

[MarMema]

Number 3. Yep.

[Eric Pode of Croydon]

It really doesn't make any difference how, or if, Cruz gets the nomination.

What's important is that I don't hold my nose when voting. Not any more.

[jjotto]

I’m pretty sure the majority needed for the nomination is a majority of actual votes, not the majority of pledged delegates. If 20 delegates abstain or otherwise do not vote, that would reduce the number needed by 10. That’s why there are alternate delegates. They get to vote if the actual delegate doesn’t for some reason.

[Jack Black]

Nope, we’re voting for Cruz to be the nominee, but go ahead and console yourself with this bit of crazy theory.

It's not a crazy thoery, it's simple math. You might think you are voting for Cruz to be the nominee, but you are really, at best, voting to have an open convention, and hoping that Cruz wins that convention.

Here is the link to the FiveThirtyEight site which is run by Nate Silver, the best elections statistician in the business.

Early on he built models for how well each candidate had to do to win the nomination. The models played to the candidates stregths, for instance Trump would have to win New York, New Jersey and do well in the mid-west states. Rubio needed to win Florida and it's big cache of delegates.

Here's a link to the performance against models graph

. What you see is that Cruz has only won 52% of what he should have to gain the nomination. Trump has won 95%, which means he's also not on track to win outright, so at this point the odds on favorite scenarios is (amazingly) the open convention.

The problem for Cruz is that there aren't enough contests left to win all the delegates he needs.

Cruz has 463 delegates of the needed 1237. He needs 774.

Here are all the contests remaining:

APRIL 1	North Dakota	28
APRIL 5	Wisconsin	42
APRIL 9	Colorado	37
APRIL 16	Wyoming	29
APRIL 19	New York	95
APRIL 26	Connecticut	28
	Delaware	16
	Maryland	38
	Pennsylvania	71
	Rhode Island	19
MAY 3	Indiana	57
MAY 10	Nebraska	36
West	Virginia	34
MAY 17	Oregon	28
MAY 24	Washington	44
JUNE 7	California	172
	Montana	27
	New Jersey	51
	New Mexico	24
	South Dakota	29
TOTAL		905

The only way Ted could do this would be to win almost every state, and win many of them by 100% because they are not winner take all.

That's not gong to happen.

After New York, if not sooner, Ted will join Kasich in needing more delegates to win the nomination than are available in the remaining contests and, as the pundits say, it will become a mathematical impossibility for him to win the nomination on the first ballot.

(BTW: most elections are called when the votes needed for the guy behind to catch back up become so large that it is insurmountable. That's happened to Ted.)

Ted's a smart guy. He went to Yale, I'm sure he's done the math. Ted is playing to deny Trump and force the open convention.

You are being played by Ted if you don't understand that and think he's still trying to win the nomination conventionally, with the majority of delegates.

Cheers!