It's not a crazy thoery, it's simple math. You might think you are voting for Cruz to be the nominee, but you are really, at best, voting to have an open convention, and hoping that Cruz wins that convention.
Here is the link to the FiveThirtyEight site which is run by Nate Silver, the best elections statistician in the business.
Early on he built models for how well each candidate had to do to win the nomination. The models played to the candidates stregths, for instance Trump would have to win New York, New Jersey and do well in the mid-west states. Rubio needed to win Florida and it's big cache of delegates.
Here's a link to the performance against models graph
. What you see is that Cruz has only won 52% of what he should have to gain the nomination. Trump has won 95%, which means he's also not on track to win outright, so at this point the odds on favorite scenarios is (amazingly) the open convention.
The problem for Cruz is that there aren't enough contests left to win all the delegates he needs.
Cruz has 463 delegates of the needed 1237. He needs 774.
Here are all the contests remaining:
| APRIL 1 | North Dakota | 28 |
| APRIL 5 | Wisconsin | 42 |
| APRIL 9 | Colorado | 37 |
| APRIL 16 | Wyoming | 29 |
| APRIL 19 | New York | 95 |
| APRIL 26 | Connecticut | 28 |
| Delaware | 16 | |
| Maryland | 38 | |
| Pennsylvania | 71 | |
| Rhode Island | 19 | |
| MAY 3 | Indiana | 57 |
| MAY 10 | Nebraska | 36 |
| West | Virginia | 34 |
| MAY 17 | Oregon | 28 |
| MAY 24 | Washington | 44 |
| JUNE 7 | California | 172 |
| Montana | 27 | |
| New Jersey | 51 | |
| New Mexico | 24 | |
| South Dakota | 29 | |
| TOTAL | 905 |
The only way Ted could do this would be to win almost every state, and win many of them by 100% because they are not winner take all.
That's not gong to happen.
After New York, if not sooner, Ted will join Kasich in needing more delegates to win the nomination than are available in the remaining contests and, as the pundits say, it will become a mathematical impossibility for him to win the nomination on the first ballot.
(BTW: most elections are called when the votes needed for the guy behind to catch back up become so large that it is insurmountable. That's happened to Ted.)
Ted's a smart guy. He went to Yale, I'm sure he's done the math. Ted is playing to deny Trump and force the open convention.
You are being played by Ted if you don't understand that and think he's still trying to win the nomination conventionally, with the majority of delegates.
Cheers!
Ironic isn't, the "outsider" is actively working to help the GOPe.
I've always voted for the candidate who is the strongest advocate of limiting government. Whether that candidate has a chance of winning or not.
And that means I've voted third party in the general election several times.
If my primary ballot comes down to Trump versus Cruz, it's simply no contest that the limit government test gives Cruz my vote, and let the convention chips fall where they may.