Posted on 03/30/2016 4:47:20 PM PDT by sargon
In my humble opinion, the Republican party has effectively and totally destroyed itself with its relentless character assassination vendetta against its own frontrunner, Donald Trump.
There will be no recovering from this. Here are the only possible scenarios I can see, as we finish the primary season and move into the GOP convention:
Scenario #1: The only scenario that has the potential to expand the GOP demographic base permanently and beat Hillary is for Donald Trump to win the nomination and face Hillary in the general election, either with a clear majority or a near majority of delegates.
Scenario #2: Ted Cruz wins the GOP nomination fair and square, without jumping into bed with the GOPe. In that case, his narrow demographic base probably dooms him, but at least voter enthusiasm is preserved. Unfortunately, this scenario has already been obviated by the fact that the GOPe is demonizing Trump nonstop, infuriating his voters, and Ted Cruz has adopted the Establishment tactics wholeheartedly, which alienates Donald Trump voters who otherwise might be willing to support Ted Cruz.
Scenario #3: Ted Cruz wins the nomination with the help of the GOPe, either by getting a majority of delegates or by leapfrogging the frontrunner at the convention. This scenario still results in a candidate with a vary narrow base who likely can't overcome the demographic realities which accrue to the benefit of the Democrat party. Furthermore, this scenario also results in furious Trump voters who believe in their hearts that the nomination was stolen as a result of the constant character assassination directed at Donald trump.
Scenario #4: The convention is contested and someone other than Trump or Cruz is nominated. In this case, voters from both of the leading candidates are furious with the party, and enough of them stay home for Hillary to win easily.
So that is my analysis.
It looks very much to me like the "Anybody But Trump" movement is beginning to succeed. Unfortunately, that "anybody" is going to be Hillary Clinton, unless she's indicted, in which case any of the above scenarios could still, theoretically at least, result in a GOP victory.
Barring that, however, the only scenarios that could succeed are scenarios number 1 & 2.
And, as I have already noted, scenario #2 has already been destroyed by the GOPe, with Ted Cruz acting in full complicity.
Thus, conservatives' best hope is scenario #1, just like it has been for the last few months. It is the only scenario still possible that preserves voter enthusiasm, expands the GOP tent, and wipes out Hillary in the general election.
Since scenario #1 is itself becoming less likely now, IMHO, and due to the causes I've outlined, this leaves me with the inescapable conclusion that the GOPe has already screwed the pooch. The GOP will not win the White House in 2016 absent Trump at the top of the ticket. It could have won with Cruz possibly, but only in the case where Cruz remained an anti-Establishment candidate, and didn't adopt the Establishment tactics being used against Donald Trump. It's already too late for that, of course.
I'm convinced that the GOP will be content to remain in marginal power by controlling the House and perhaps still the Senate. That will allow them (with Hillary in the White House) to preserve the system as it is, where both parties scratch each other's backs, put up token opposition on various issues, and everybody just keeps enriching themselves at the expense of the People.
For doing what they have done, the GOP deserves to die a painful and lingering death. I, for one, am done with the Party, and will never register as a Republican again: not even to vote in their closed primaries. I'll stick with being a registered independent.
It saddens me very much to write these words, because, only a few short months ago, we had 2 candidates with the potential to lead a desperately-needed Revolution in American politics and culture.
But, alas, I believe it is not to be. The GOPe has overplayed their hand to the point where they have destroyed the party's chances for every possible scenario, except for the one case that appeared like it would happen: Donald Trump winning the nomination.
Now, Donald Trump bears some responsibility for this, as does Ted Cruz, for different reasons.
But the real villain in this tragic sequence of events is the GOPe: Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush, Lindsay Graham, John McCain, Bob Dole, the National Review, and all of their elitist ilk.
Yes, folks, I'm still hopeful that somehow something positive will come from the criminal and treasonous Establishment proceedings that we all have been watching before our very eyes. But I doubt it.
It looks like the Revolution will have to wait for at least another four years. That's good enough for the Establishment. As long as they can always delay the inevitable, the inevitable becomes impossible.
The hatred that I feel for the GOPe burns within me with a passion that will never die. Indeed, it only waxes stronger with each Machiavellian shenanigan they pull. It will be on full display at the GOP convention as well, of course.
I can't help but feel a profound sense of loss in looking at the state of affairs that we have arrived at.
No matter what happens at the convention, there will be large masses of GOP voters who will feel totally betrayed by the party leadership, and this will carry all the way through to the general election cycle.
All is lost, IMHO, and I say that as a realist, not a pessimist.
That pooch got screwed a long time ago.
here is the scenario and timing.
We finish the primaries . Trump get 1150 , Cruz gets a couple hundred less.
In the two or three weeks before the convention, Trump and Cruz realize that they MUST get together or risk the GOPe running the convention.
It also works , because Trump would obviously be on top of the ticket. Age and delegates.
I wonder, what the possible scenario will be when Cruz is exposed fully for his transgressions. It IS a strong possibility and if it goes that way, this entire thing changes.
Well maybe not entirely, you still have all the dirty rat GOPe who will throw in for Kasich or Rubio or Ryan.
Ted put his chips in the wrong pile. He’d of had strong support if he had stayed true to those who brought him to the dance. Even with chickies on the side, people would have gone to bat for him. Now? Not a chance, he represents the dirties of the dirty who are behind him and people are not stupid, much as you may believe they are.
It’s really just tragic all the way around.
one more thing , the Trump/Cruz scenario only works if Cruz keeps Trump under 1237 and cruz wins enough delegates for Trump to respect Cruz.
“Cruz COULD NEVER win the general”
Yes, that is what I said. The way Trump and Cruz have conducted themselves have left them unelectable in November.
Stock up on guns, ammo, food and water. Hillary is your next President.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X2UAuFArbOY
Lol, that’s hilarious!
He looks like Kasich and sounds like Trump!
Reagan loathed bush in 1980.
But the party can unite and mop the floor with donks.
“Reagan loathed Bush. Remember, voodoo economics?”
Right, and that was a good team.
Maybe they’ll give it to Trump if he agrees to Bush being his running mate.
Now that’d be funny!
No it wouldn't.
“If the GOPe steals the nomination away from Trump the punishment isn’t just no Republican voters showing up in November, but that the Trumpinator will be baaaack, with an even larger and angrier voter base in 4 years. And he won’t be running Republican’t this time.”
That’d be great.
Mostly agree.
I still believe that Trump wins the presidency if nominated - there area LOT of rat voters that hate the hildebeast with a burning passion and will not vote for her - many would vote for Trump out of spite with the party.
Trump’s recent statements and actions are troubling, though - now is the time for him to stop the childishness and be a man and a president, if he can. He is under full scale attack by 3 party establishments and their enablers and hangers-on (consultants and lobbyists) - the uniparty DC establishment, the establishment left, and the establishment right. He has actually weathered it all fairly well, if he can only rise up now and show that he is the leader that many of us believed him to be.
If he can’t or won’t do this, this country is screwed. He will take himself and Cruz down, ensuring that erstwhile Leavenworth resident #45709234 will be the next president, and the current and following supreme court slots will be filled by radical leftists, homos and muzzies. Goodbye 1st and 2nd Amendments, religious freedom (unless you believe in genital mutilation), freedom of association and freedom of the press (well, to be fair, that last has already been pretty much shot). Hello 30 million non-English speakers given citizenship. France will look like a rock-ribbed conservative nation when she’s done with us.
“No it wouldn’t. “
C’mooooon, it’s a little funny....
No, not really.
Its funny. Trump is finding out how tough politics can be.
“No, not really.”
ok.
Trump/McCain.....??
Trump could take Mccain back to the academy and teach him how to win wars!
“Its funny. Trump is finding out how tough politics can be.”
I’ve never seen the whole political world line up against one guy before...
...so yeah it’s pretty tough.
I think it’s really important to not just go away if we’re thwarted (otherwise we make it too easy for these ax-files), but I also think it’s important to not vote for people we’d never vote for otherwise due to anger. Weigh them out, don’t just punish.
“But the party can unite and mop the floor with donks.”
Part of that unity is going to have to involve Trump.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.