Posted on 02/03/2016 5:41:00 AM PST by rickmichaels
If NASA really faked the moon landing in 1969, about 411,000 people would have worked together to keep that information from the public, and the whole thing would have been exposed about four years later, according to an Oxford researcher who has found a mathematical way to examine the viability of conspiracy theories.
David Robert Grimes is a physicist and cancer researcher, but he also writes science pieces for the Irish Times and the Guardian. As a science writer, heâs used to being contacted by people who adhere to science-based conspiracy theories, which generally involve accusing the scientific community at large of colluding on fake data for nefarious purposes, Oxford University said in a release about Grimesâ new paper, published in PLOS this week.
To help demonstrate the viability (or lack thereof) of several well-known conspiracy theories, Grimes wrote an equation to show just how hard it would be to keep large-scale conspiracies â if they were true â a secret.
âFor a conspiracy of even a few thousand actors, intrinsic failure would arise within decades. For hundreds of thousands, such failure would be assured within less than half a decade,â Grimes concluded. In other words: bad news for a lot of the Internetâs most persistent conspiracies.
For instance, more than 440,000 people would have to be working together to fool the public if climate change deniers are correct. Grimesâ equation calculated that such a conspiracy would have been exposed â either by an internal whistleblower or, accidentally â three years and nine months after it began.
(Excerpt) Read more at news.nationalpost.com ...
“Science” is supposed to change when presented with contradictory data.
One secret held by thousands for several years was the development of the atomic bomb during WWII.
Another secret held by dozens for almost fifty years was the cracking of the Enigma code by Turing etal for British Intelligence during WWII.
Will “science” change their view—don’t hold your breath.
6 people (if my memory serves correctly) knew about Watergate, and they couldn’t even keep that one secret.
I know, personally, thanks to education and several decades of experience that what they are doing with their computer "models" is completely invalid. The output of these so-called simulations is really just pure fantasy scripted and tweaked and tuned to provide whatever result the people with the $ backing them want to see. It is not that the results are invalid because they've "adjusted" the numbers to get the results they want. No, actually it is worse. The results are invalid because they can never be valid in the way they are sold - the entire modeling approach is not and never will be predictive. It does not matter what numbers they put in, or what they get out, there will never be any more than a pure random chance that the results turn out to be correct. In other words, spend millions on models or throw darts at a board, both have the same chance of being correct.
“440,000 people would have to be working together “
I guess they never heard of “bias”.
On the flip side, how are the “deniers” managing to work together when the brilliant “scientists” can’t seem to pull it off?
If NASA faked the moon landing, by now they would have faked something better. ;-)
I have always suggested that at least 50% of government workers are too lazy, or too low in the food chain to care about a conspiracy.
I think that 49% are too stupid to care about a conspiracy.
The remaining 0.99% are smart and ambitious. They are the ones busying stealing from us.
The final .01% are the true believers. Is that enough to cover up and conspire the stuff that is going on?
I DO believe that a cabal of very rich people control most of the industry in the world. I think they can control the politicians. It is not a conspiracy. It is what the “Royal” class used to do up until the early 1900s. Industry and Finances have taken over that elite class. There is nothing new with that “conspiracy.”
And it is right out in the open.
Like the claim that the Catholic church changed the Bible. Yet forgot to add something so simple and basic as just one prayer to an angel or early martyr in Heaven.
Actually, none of them “say” anything. You have to be able to vocalize something in order to “say” anything.
Scientists may say something.
Editors, even Headline Editors, write things. Unless you are speaking with them directly.
Just because the truth is exposed doesn’t mean that the conspiracy will be undone. Consider BO’s fake birth certificate, TWA 800, muslim participation in the OKC bombing, etc. The US government routinely lies, denies truth, and does it with media complicity. Look, if the Allies in WWII could convince Hilter that the invasion would not happen at Normandy, what deceptions can be brought on American citizens?
The Catholic Church did not “change” the bible, but the Catholic Church did define what was in their bible.
If you think about it, if you are operating a “world wide” organization you need to have everyone on the same page. You need to get together and come up with a standard set of operating rules.
When you take the “religion” out of the “bible process”, it makes perfect sense that some stuff had to be left on the editing floor.
Fixed it back.
the AGW ‘conspiracy’ isn’t a conspiracy per se, it is more a groupthink situation. the story is telling, and loses credibility by the ‘conspiracies’ it picks to illustrate it’s point, and which it ignores. perhaps the biggest is the JFK, which isn’t even mentioned.
The National Reconnaissance Office that controls the nations spy satellites was kept a pretty good secret for about 40 years. There were rumors of the existence of military spy satellites, but not so much of a giant civilian government organization that managed them.
Evil government, “Tomorrow you will spray this deadly poison chemtrail over Springfield.”
Pilot, “My family reunion is in Springfield tomorrow.”
EG, “Just do it.”
P, “Yes sir.”
Would that be the same “science” that pushes AGW?
I remember back in 1968-69 when SCIENCE AND MECHANICS magazine had a series on how all the Russian man into space shots were all faked. I never took that magazine’s “science” seriously after that.
Simple solution: Rassling On The Moon.
That's the kid who runs and collects the bat after the batter tosses it away after hitting the baseball. Batboys ARE real! You need to apologize to granny. (GRIN)
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