Posted on 02/03/2016 4:13:22 AM PST by usafa92
On the third day of the UMass Lowell/7News Tracking Poll of New Hampshire Primary Voters, Donald Trump continues to lead the Republican field by a wide margin even after a disappointing second place finish in Iowa on Monday night. Trump's lead over his nearest rival is 24 points -- he stays steady at 38%, followed by Sen. Ted Cruz at 14% (no change) and Sen. Marco Rubio at 12% (+2% change). Three former governors, Jeb Bush of Texas at 9% (no change), John Kasich of Ohio at 7% (-2%) and Chris Christie at 6% (+1% change).
With six days remaining until Granite State voters head to the polls, Trump and Sanders have commanding leads. On the Republican side, Sen. Marco Rubio appears the most likely to offer a challenge to Trump after outperforming expectations by the greatest margin in Iowa's Republican Caucus Monday night. Rubio has gained slowly, but steadily, increasing two points each day since the poll's release on Feb. 1. It remains to be seen whether Rubio will continue to rise after a strong showing in Iowa. He needs big gains in order to get close to Trump's steady 38%.
(Excerpt) Read more at uml.edu ...
that's why i'll ever understand so many posts hoping for Cruz to fall to third by Trump people.
Makes no sense.
“Trump is a vulgarian. “
No, no, no! Trump’s not a vulgarian! That’s Mr. Spock!
Seriously - take your nose out of the air. Your brain will work better that way.
“Rubio can just go away.”...
Agreed. I hear there is an overload of used cars left to sell in Florida, perhaps he can scam the folks down there.
“Rubio is a real threat.”...........
Being the GOP and the medias favorite will do that.
You know, as someone who favors Trump at this point, I think if he is going to run on the notion of bringing operational competence, excellence, and meaning to government that we can be proud of, then he needs to show it in his campaign. That means gathering the necessary campaign advisers, listening to them, and doing things like “get out the message of the day” kind of stuff and less ad hoc stand-up winging.
While Trump may think he is re-writing the campaign book, Iowa shows that much of what is already written better be paid attention to.
The polls to watch at this point at in Florida.. if Rubio starts to surge in Florida... all bets are off and this will be an epic struggle all the way to the convention.
SC is the race to watch. GOPe is going on all in to push Rubio there. If Trump wins SC he will build momentum. If not look out for Rubio.
The Iowa BounceThis tracking poll was conducted from Sunday-Tuesday of this week. Because of that, only one of three days of data occurred after Iowa. Today provides a preliminary assessment of the Iowa bounce, which appears to be +2 net for Rubio and +4 net for Clinton. However, we hasten to add that these changes are well within the margin of error and might simply be an artifact of random sampling error. A more complete picture of the Iowa bounce will appear in tomorrow's release and the first completely post-Iowa poll will be released on Friday, Feb. 6.
Looking good for The Donald!
I am going to vote for him in my primary but will take Cruz if that’s how the general election shakes out. I do also think that Trump needs to back up the talk game with a committed ground game, however.
Trump is just as far ahead in South Carolina as he is in New Hampshire.
South Carolina
Trump 36
Cruz 20
Rubio 14
Nothing that happens in NH is going to change the fact that Trump is going to win South Carolina.
Florida is Rubio’s home state though... and if he comes in 2nd in NH and gets a boost and pulls ahead of Cruz in South Carolina... he could surge big in his home state of Florida... and if Rubio wins the winner take all state of Florida... all bets are off.
Iowa’s caucus system is fraught with dishonesty, corruption and intimidation as Canuck Cruz and Clinton demonstrated.
It does NOT represent a secret ballot system.
The caucus system is akin to having political speeches & announcements at a normal polling booth...or Black Panthers “patrolling” the voting booths.
If Iowa uses the normal polling booth during the general election and not allow political speeches during the voting process, why not during the primary.
“Meanwhile, “sophisticated†New Englanders will still go for the potty-mouth carnival barker who offers them the simple solution of a man on the white horse.”
Rubio’s got too much ground to cover. More likely Trump holds on and wins fairly big.
Florida is not until after the SEC primaries. A big showing in SC will give Rubio momentum going it those important primaries. The other thing about Florida is that we know Rubio here. We know his history unlike the late Iowa deciders who could project whatever they wanted onto the magic Cuban.
TexasFreeper2009 wrote: “Florida is Rubio’s home state though... and if he comes in 2nd in NH and gets a boost and pulls ahead of Cruz in South Carolina... he could surge big in his home state of Florida... and if Rubio wins the winner take all state of Florida... all bets are off.”
It would give Rubio cards to play for sure. I wouldn’t be surprised to start hearing bottom of the ticket contemplations based on how well he has held his own in the debates and process thus far.
I haven’t given Rubio a fair shake in my mind to this point. How many others like me have just looked the other way because of warnings to do so? It isn’t like he has a storied career that is going to work against him. He is, after all, just a freshman Senator like Cruz. So it it more about what Rubio will become than what Rubio is. That contemplation is what hinders Cruz a bit in my opinion.
I think we have to hope Bush stays in at least til Florida to keep some votes from Rubio. Bush has too much ego to let Rubio take Florida, imo.
I don’t think we can assume that.
No one candidate will assimilate all of Bush’s votes, or Kasich, or Christie.
Add in how hard Bush went after Rubio and there may be some loyalty resistance.
I really think Rubio will surpass Cruz here.
I am going to go out on a limb and say that Trump will win, but the margin is going to be so low as to be a “loss.”
Trump has fans. I do not think it will translate into votes.
Just a feeling after seeing him not perform as well as many expected in Iowa (for example, not having people on the ground to speak for him in each precinct.)
[Excerpt]
2008: When serving as U.S. attorney for New Jersey, Christie embraced and kissed Mohammed Qatanani, imam of the Islamic Center of Passaic County, and praised him as "a man of great goodwill." He did this after Qatanani had publicly ranted against Jews and in support of funding Hamas, a U.S. government-designated terror organization, and on the eve of his deportation hearing for not hiding an Israeli conviction for membership in Hamas.
In addition, Christie designated a top aide, Assistant U.S. Attorney Charles McKenna, to testify as a character witness for Qatanani.
2010: After Derek Fenton burned three pages of a Koran at a 9/11 memorial ceremony, his employer, New Jersey Transit, got Christie's approval to fire him. Protecting Islam at the expense of the constitutional right to free speech, Christie endorsed Fenton's termination: "That kind of intolerance is something I think is unacceptable. So I don't have any problem with him being fired." The American Civil Liberties Union successfully represented Fenton to get his job back.
2011: Christie appointed an Islamist, Sohail Mohammed, to the New Jersey state superior court. Mohammed's record includes serving as general counsel to the American Muslim Union (which has stated that a "Zionist Commando Orchestrated The 9-11 Terrorist Attacks"), acting as spokesman for Muslim prisoners who went on a hunger strike after being jailed during Ramadan, defending Palestinian Islamic Jihad operative Sami Al-Arian (his indictment, Mohammed said, was "nothing but a witch-hunt"), and helping Qatanani's legal defense.
Mohammed established himself not just as the Islamists' lawyer but as one of them. When members of New Jersey's Senate Judiciary Committee asked Mohammed appropriately tough questions about his enthusiasm for Islam's archaic law code, the Shari'a, Christie ridiculed the lawmakers: "Shari'a law has nothing to do with this [appointment of Mohammed] at all. It's crazy. It's crazy.
. . . So, this Shari'a law business is crap. It's just crazy. And I'm tired of dealing with the crazies. I mean, you know, it's just unnecessary to be accusing this guy of things just because of his religious background." For this outburst, unsurprisingly, the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) thanked and applauded Christie.
2012: The revelation that the New York Police Department had conducted surveillance of Islamists in the New Jersey towns of Newark and New Brunswick prompted not gratitude but outrage from Christie, who termed the action arrogant and paranoid while mocking NYPD Commissioner Raymond Kelly as "all knowing, all seeing."
In short, Christie has hugged a terrorist-organization member, abridged free-speech rights, scorned concern over Islamization, and opposed law-enforcement counter terrorism efforts.
Read more at: http://www.nationalreview.com/article/297322/chris-christies-islam-problem-daniel-pipes-steve-emerson
Jeb! is bringing out the big guns - Mama Barbara will be in NH campaigning for him on Thurs (he said earlier on Fox). Too bad a 90-year old woman has to fly from TX to NH to campaign for her son whose poll numbers are so far down.
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