Trump
Trump takes Iowa by 10% or more.
Trump
I’m calling it for Trump on the republican side and in a slight surprise Sanders on the socialist slate.
Trump, by one touchdown - 6 points.
Trump by 7% margin
Cruz 30%
Trump 28%
Rubio 17%
Carson 6%
Huckabee 5%
Rand 4%
Bush 3%
Fiorina 3%
Santorum 2%
Christie 1%
Kasich 1%
Trump or Rubio. I’m praying for Trump.
Iowa is not a “winner take all” state, as I understand it. Instead, delegates will be awarded proportionate to percentage. The Big Three—Cruz, Rubio, and Trump—all will likely be in the 15%-35% range, perhaps all in the 20s. In what order, though, is hard to say. If any of them finishes out of the top three, or drops below 15% or goes above 35%, that will be significant. In any case, we should get some weeding out of the lowest finishers.
Trump by 10%.
Faux and other MSM keep pushing the meme of unpredictability, trying to keep up sub candidates hopes and increase viewer ratings I guess!
Dem - Hillary (I think she learned from 2008 and is bussing in outsiders / using Caucus shenanigans to ensure a victory. This is this the Clinton's after all....)
Trump, Hillary.
Trump by 7%.
If the caucuses are below 150-160,000 then I predict Cruz wins something like 28% to Trump’s 26 0r 27%.
If it goes over 160,000 then I predict Trump wins it, and the higher it goes, the higher his margin...perhaps up to 30% for him and 28% for Cruz.
We shall see...and I may be completely out to lunch. But that’s how I feel and what I predict.
But I'll wait for the official results.
Yeah, I'm no fun at parties either.
Frankly this is a hard one...
the money should be on Trump, however...
Going on 2008 when Iowa went for Huckabee (as Tennessee did also) and 2012 when Iowa chose Santorum (again as TN did too), they may go this time for a Conservative...
but we are 8 and 4 years on...
in 2012 Huckabee didn’t run but Iowa was still Conservative and looking for one with a proven record..and much the same voters were available..so Santorum who wasn’t running in 2008 was now the obvious choice...
The Romney types very rejected both times by Iowa...not that Trump is a full blown liberal like Romney..
Now in 2016, many of the older voters who voted for Huckabee and/or Santorum) are dead or unable to make it to the caucus (you have to actually show up)
How many remaining will syphon off their vote to Huckabee or Santorum again instead off Cruz who has made himself persona-non-grata to some of the Conservatives ???
With all the new voters accompanying their parents and grandparents to the caucus, how many will break up the family in the same room, and go with Trump ???
How many college age and high schoolers will for the sake of peace in the home where they are just squatting, go with the parental unit pick ???
Its anyones guess who will win tonight but I’m sure there are a lot of teenagers who just might have too much homework to leave the house tonight..