Posted on 10/02/2015 8:51:07 AM PDT by conservativejoy
Despite the oversized field and non-traditional candidates, the battle for the Republican presidential nomination is starting to shape up in familiar ways. There will be a champion of the establishment wing taking on the champion of the party base to determine the nominee.
One interesting possibility is that this year’s finalists could both be young, articulate and Hispanic. There’s a long road ahead, but it is very reasonable to envision Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz as the last candidates standing.
Among establishment candidates, Rubio almost certainly has enough charisma and eloquence to overcome Jeb Bush’s claim of inevitability. And, other than Bush, it’s hard to find a serious contender among the establishment crowd. Some see Ohio Gov. John Kasich as a possibility, but there is little evidence he has any support beyond a small group of reporters.
As for the outsider field, that is currently dominated by three people who have never held office before: Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Carly Fiorina. It’s been very healthy for these outsiders to shake things up in the Grand Old Party. Without them, the establishment never would have figured out how unpopular the idea of a third Bush in the White House had become.
But I don’t believe any of the non-politicians will actually win the nomination. It’s quite possible that one or more of them will win a caucus or primary. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to have Carson emerge victorious in Iowa. But winning the nomination is a different matter entirely. Sooner or later, the lack of political experience will drag them down. It’s unfortunate that the process has evolved to the point where only professional politicians can win, but that’s the reality we face in 2016.
Of all the politicians left in the race, Cruz is the only one likely to have any appeal to supporters of Trump, Carson and Fiorina.
This could set up a truly fascinating opportunity for the Republican Party. For years, pundits have wondered how the Republicans could ever make inroads with minority voters. Democratic analysts have gleefully assumed that the growing number of Hispanic voters would automatically translate to a growing number of Democrats.
But that could all change very quickly. Imagine week after week, month after month, debate after debate filled with stories about two Hispanic men competing for the Republican presidential nomination. All of a sudden, it’s easy to imagine more Hispanic voters taking part in the Republican primaries. And every single story would highlight the reality that regardless of who wins, the GOP would become the first major political party to nominate a Hispanic presidential candidate.
One senior Republican insider believes that “the logic of a Ted-Marco final would be challenging for Democrats.” He believes that “it would present Hispanic voters with a clear choice between lip service about immigration reform after years of failure or the profound and the very real symbolism of two immensely different but talented Republican Hispanics poised to lead the nation.”
Obviously, there’s still a long way to go. But the possibility of a Cruz-Rubio finale for the Republican nomination is one of the more likely — and interesting — possibilities.
I think Rubio’s pro-amnesty views will sink him.
This article assumes the implosion of Trump, which I am not sure will happen.
I agree that Cruz is the most solid person in the race and will undoubtedly endure to the end.
Yes, that’s what we need .. charisma and eloquence .. forget brains .. and the ability to see what mass immigration will do to this country.
Trump/Cruz .. or America is just about done for.
Sen. Cruz: The Real Story of What Is Happening in Washington
“Trump/Cruz .. or America is just about done for.”
I think trump/Cruz is wht will shake out. I am a Yuge!! Cruz supporter, but I think without Trump to run interference he will be eaten alive by the GOPe.
Of all the politicians left in the race, Cruz is the only one likely to have any appeal to supporters of Trump, Carson and Fiorina.
After todays job report, I think Trump will be the last man standing.
Yup.
Interesting points...I can see this going down to Cruz-Rubio. But its only Oct....loooong way to go. This is the best election cycle ever!
True, Rubio’s silence makes him as deplorable as squirrel head Paul’s unadvised remarks made him. Both are cowards.
For many reasons TRUMP/CRUZ would likely produce the most progress moving the country towards the right direction. If disciplined, Trump and his celebrity could broaden the base and blunt the media, with Cruz the constitutional and govt mechanic behind the scenes working towards succession. Bush was Reagan’s biggest mistake. Trump may be much smarter than people think. I am convinced Trump and Cruz are playing off an agreed upon strategery.
I agree.
Then you’re left with Cruz.
You’e also left with...
Democrats voting in our primaries selecting a more Leftist person than Cruz
Moderate Republicans who think the Tea Party members are terrorists
Conservatives who think Cruz is just right
What comes of that? A Cruz nomination...?
This is a dream of fantasy for Cruz supporters.
He will never get the nomination.
For many reasons TRUMP/CRUZ would likely produce the most progress moving the country towards the right direction. If disciplined, Trump and his celebrity could broaden the base and blunt the media, with Cruz the constitutional and govt mechanic behind the scenes working towards succession. Bush was Reagan’s biggest mistake. Trump may be much smarter than people think. I am convinced Trump and Cruz are playing off an agreed upon strategery.
You are so right. I have never seen an election with this much energy. It is going to be a barn burner in the closing days.
I hope that by debate time there will be fewer candidates on the stage. It is time to focus on the serious contenders without all the background noise.
Rubberio killed any chance I would vote for him when he schemed with Schumer against the citizens.
NO AMNESTY CANDIDATES!
I don’t know how much faith we should put in Scott. He was wrong last time.
Rubio has views that are not consistent with that of most conservatives. He’s kinda sweet and boyish looking but eloquent? Not so much.
Trump’s momentum has not slowed down that I can see. He draws huge crowds. Are they there because he’s a celebrity? I don’t think so. He was always a celebrity but he couldn’t have filled up a phone booth before he ran. He is enormously eloquent in an odd way. His speeches are not orchestrated or rehearsed sounding, but they are spellbinding.
I’m for Cruz. Some people here say he’s not attractive and does not have charisma. I can only assume they are for another candidate and afraid of him because he has immense charisma and is very attractive. He’s not a pretty boy but in a solidly masculine way he’s extremely good looking.
Rasmussen does not own this polling firm anymore.
Sold it.
Rasmussen does not own this polling firm anymore.
Sold it.
So true and funny:
Some see Ohio Gov. John Kasich as a possibility, but there is little evidence he has any support beyond a small group of reporters.
I can see this scenario but I will never vote Rubio in the primary. Cruz is my #1 and only one else on my list is Trump.
No poll is mentioned in the article which was an opinion piece by Scott Rasmussen.
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