What happened to the Washington Post being called the Washington Compost?
If it is still and always has been the Washington Compost, should their polls be trusted?
The problem is that ALL the pollsters are having trouble adapting to a world where people don’t automatically answer their phones, and phone technology has changed.
Following their bad performance in the 2014 midterms, Nate Silver wrote that pollsters are going to have to develop new methods.
I have no faith in any of them anymore. I can also see that our political system is worthless and no election will change much of anything.
We are no better than the Israelites, who after seeing the great works of God, turned their backs on Him and continued to go their own way. Like them, we are going to learn the hard way.
If you take into consideration the timing of the poll, demographic info, the sample size, the manner in which the questions are phrased, who's sponsored the poll, etc. its possible to glean some truth from anything.
ALL polls should be taken with a mountain of salt.
There is a reason that professionals ask to see the internals. How was the question asked? What methodology was used to determine margin of error? How and when was the poll conducted?
I’ve always said: “Give me control of the questions and the polling sample and I’ll have 60% of Americans voting for Hitler.”
This is Free Republic, where Scott Brown for President was once written, and Karl Rove was a magnificent Bastard. It’s where GWB was cheered, the Republican Congress was anticipated, and Obama was going to lose to Romney.
Which way does the wind blow?
Yes. I trust them as much as I trust the IRS to fairly evaluate applications by `non-profit organizations’ for exempt status.
As much as I trust: Fox news to handle a debate, Brian Williams’ war stories, Hillary’s excuses, etc.
E) None of the above.
There is only one poll that counts.
Not sure about CNN/ORC but I really am suspicious of Reuters and PPP.
One thing, at least one thing, to watch for is the mix of Republicans and Independents “leaning Republican” in the poll. That mix can make a huge change in the results. And many polls utilize Independents in both Republican and Democrat polling.
Personally I would like to see them poll “Republican Primary Voters” exclusively.
This is not a popularity contest in the conventional sense. We are trying to predict the winners and losers in the upcoming Primaries. Do Independents get to vote in the Republican Primary? I doubt it but I don’t really know. But if they don’t then what are they doing in the poll?
Opinion poll are like climate science. The results are what whoever is paying for it wants.
Polls are always right when they say my guy is winning. Otherwise they’re crap.
Polls are useless. One week Hillary has the Presidency locked up the next week she is on her way to jail..
Polls change quicker then the weather..
The internals are the key. Polling organizationstry to muddy the scene whether they combine leaners with a party or as Ind. Gallup surveys R D I every year as well asCon Mod Lib. Compare the polls internals with the Gallup. Gallup. Isn’t perfect, but can help the polls be compared to one another. The thing I see on the Orc polls is the excessive ( double digit) R crossover to vote for Hillary even though the gender gap is consistent. So it isn’t a matter of R womaN voting Hillary. Why the higher crossovers?
On the other hand, off-year elections and foreign polling seems terrible. They've underestimated the GOP turnout twice in off-year elections and missed the Israeli and English election (didn't they also miss the Scottish independence vote?)
I don't know anyone "rolling" with just one poll. I do know a lot of GOPe types spinning like crazy with every new poll coming out showing Trump kicking butt. I think overall you can conclude that nationally Trump is between 24 and 30% of GOP, and statewide he leads in almost every state (that I'm aware of): IA, NH, FL, NC, GA, AL, AZ, TX, SC---there was a new three-state poll that came out of PA, FL, and OH and I think Kasich was up on him in OH, but Trump was ahead in every other state.
The RCP average is usually correct.
Odd. Last week you were citing CNN when you (wrongly) claimed Trump had peaked and was on his way down. Except you had confused a national poll with an Iowa poll. Oops.
Now you don’t like CNN because you think the lefty journalists are somehow playing with the spreadsheets. When in fact CNN plays no part in the polling. ORC does all the number crunching. CNN simply pays for the poll.
These same polls show Hillary’s poll numbers dropping..big time.
Are they inaccurate on Hillary, as well?
What is good for CNN is good for the leftist movement. All media on the left are obsessed with trying to find the right formula to counter FOX News.
Friday night I was on wifi in McDonalds when CNN featured Trump from at least 8-10:30 pm EDT. He was on when I came in and was on when I left.
Trump is their new OJ to replace the Malaysian plane nobody cared about. Trump is getting eyeballs to CNN. Every person who walked into McDonalds (mostly Black Dems) stayed and watched Trump for a long period of time. Over 50 at the peak and over 30 when I left at 10:30pm. I go to this McDs often and have never seen more than 8 people stay beyond a typical fast food quick trip.
Trump is clearly capturing the eyeballs and support of these Black Dems who reason: I’m not a Republican. But Trump isn’t really a Republican either so I can support him.
I have frequent political conversations in mostly Black fast food places on the East and South sides of Atlanta. There is no love for Hilary. And Obama has become a deep disappointment because their employment and life has gotten worse under him.
Trump is benefitting from the Obama malaise.