Posted on 05/01/2015 8:34:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Interest in the Apple Watch is "tepid," says UBS analyst Steven Milunovich.
Milunovich is lowering his estimates for Apple Watch sales in fiscal year 2016 based on "global search activity."
He is predicting Apple sells 31 million Apple Watches, down from a previous estimate of 41 million.
Apple's fiscal year starts in October. So, calendar Q4 is fiscal Q1 for Apple.
Here's Milunovich explaining his thinking:
Our latest Apple Watch Monitor continues to find lackluster interest as measured by global search activity. Watch supply has been limited, but our change is based on demand.
We look for 11mn Watches to be shipped in F15 and are cutting our F16 estimate from 40mn to 31mn for two reasons: (1) search interest has deviated lower relative to an index of 30 consumer electronics introductions and the first iPad and iPhone releases—the week of launch, the Watch is about 20% of iPad and iPhone interest; and (2) we now think about 7% rather than 10% of the expected iPhone 5/6 average installed base of 430mn in F16E is likely to buy a Watch.
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I’m no Apple fanboi by a long shot, but 31 million at a few hundred bucks a pop is a LOT of money.
It’s not a necessity. People are buying it almost solely because Apply made this. If some generic technology company had made this, it likely would only sell a few million units at best, possibly not even a million.
And that is what has been observed. Apple did not really do anything new here.
Most are onto the fact that this first iteration of the Watch is to be skipped. Right now it’s simply a toy that has the Apple Logo. The real payoff will future versions that actually make the product a benefit beyond the iPhone.
They should have called it the “iSwatch” (except for the inevitable lawsuit).
Smartwatches make no sense for what some of these guys are charging.
99 dollars to 150 (200 tops), are the only legitimate price they should go for.
Apple never intended the Apple Watch to be a high-volume item, because frankly, even Apple can’t quite figure out the market for this device yet. As such, don’t expect strong sales figures even in China.
gee.. are they going to claim another part failure so they can continue the perception of supply shortage?
who could’ve guessed the casio from the 80s would be a dud with the fashion crowd. it’s just like google glass.
for hundreds of years, artisans had designed watches. not just the inner workings, but the overall look and appeal. there is no limit to the number of designs. yet the fanbois think a large rectangular glob with a thick plastic band is going to compete?!
Apple is going to have to create this market, and I think they have the ability to do so successfully. And the truth is, that can only benefit the market as a whole, and other manufacturers will benefit.
One thing I see that manufacturers of this and similar products are doing, is that they are really emphasizing the Exercise aspect of it. With the West getting fatter and lazier, I don't know if that will be enough to get people to buy it.
Yeah, but that’s not how you gauge these things. You have to look at opportunity cost. If they would have made more money just investing their R&D and marketing into a new iphone or ipod or ipad, then they are losing revenue.
First is marketing. Create a buzz and then don’t deliver the numbers to fill the want.
Second Apple had to scrap a $hitload of them due to a defective piece that fails in short order.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/04/29/apple-watch-component-defective/26593575/
One day they say Apple sold more then predicted and sold out and then the next day they are saying sales are anemic. It is sad to have so much jealousy for such a great company. I feel the same for Walmart and McDonalds who can’t do a thing right in the minds of liberals and press.
Today the oceans had tides, the wind blew, the sun will rise and set and an analyst is wrong again.
the glorified watch is like the McRib from McD’s. They know they have a winner there so they intentionally withhold the burger a majority of the year.
“People are buying it almost solely because Apple made this.”
Not just because _Apple_ made it, but because some company created a “walled garden” ecosystem good enough that many millions of people have bought into, at significant personal cost, and that ecosystem means anything new added to their collection seamlessly integrates with & complements the other investments. That’s an achievement - and sales pitch - few have pulled off; the Android ecosystem is heading that way with their own “wearables” (https://android.com/wear/) but there’s so much fragmentation no particular “watch” is gaining significant traction (in close parallel, Android phones make almost no profit). Contrast that with the iPhone which, as a single product with few variations, dominates half the smartphone market - and the Watch single-handedly complements that “half the market”.
Insofar as “people are buying it almost solely because Apple made this”, well yeah: half the smartphone market is iPhones, and this complements the iPhone. Nobody else has such a huge market share with such a clear complement to their device.
Twelve billion dollars _minimum_ revenue in just one year. One product, first model, revenue exceeding entire major industries.
Not by Apple standards
They sold 65 million Iphone 6 first quarter 2015
Samsung sold almost 90 million
Out of roughly 350 million smart phones sold worldwide in that period
Pretty incredible isn’t it
The issue I see is your phone is already now sort of your watch
And Dick Tracy was long ago
But what do I know
Apple sure pegged the very first smart phones
Watches are also a piece of jewelry and a statement of personal style. There are appropriate watches for certain occasions. Most people wouldn’t wear an iwatch to a job interview or black-tie event.
The thing is pretty bulky too - I can easily see scratching the display as it brushes against everyday stuff.
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