Posted on 04/17/2015 9:27:26 PM PDT by Swordmaker
Apple Watch. Seems like Apple has a hit on its corporate hands. Or a preorder hit. The company sold a million Apple Watches in the first 24 hours—just in the U.S.—according to one piece of analysis. That would make it the most successful new product category launch in Apple's history—so what do you do if you've been talking smack about it for months?
If you're Roger Kay, you stuff a straw man full of nonsensical numbers that will allow you to declare the device a failure no matter what. It's a neat trick so long as no one applies a gram of logic to what you're saying. Unfortunately for Mr. Kay's latest column at Forbes—Apple Watch Wager—I have plenty of logic lying around.
Mr. Kay's story starts off on Friday, when he reported that an informal poll of Silicon Valley tech execs found none of them intended to buy an Apple Watch. That led him to, "suspect that the watch will underperform from a sales perspective."
I suspect he is wrong.
Mr. Kay added:
The top press all got free demo watches, and they’re mostly positive about it, saying they have 'discovered' what makes the watch so special. But methinks the lady doth protest too much. If they had to pay for it, they would not likely have run out and bought one. And methinks the lady doth project too much.
The quote above was originally published on April 10th, the same day Apple Watch preorders went on sale and customers could make appointments to see them in Apple Stores. Here we are on Monday, April 13th, and Apple Watch is, as noted above, a smash hit. The debut device reached at least a million sales around the world in the first day. As HuffPo noted, it took 74 days for the iPhone to reach that number, and it took 28 days for iPad to do the same.
That puts quite the damper on the doom and gloom crowd's conviction that Apple Watch would finally be Apple's megaflop, its long overdue comeuppance after so many years of success.
Mr. Kay was challenged on his predictions of failure by readers who asked him to put his own predictions on the line, which he did on Monday. It's how he did so that has me tilting my knapsack off. From Mr. Kay's piece:
Rather than throw my hocus pocus on top of everybody else’s (after all, who actually knows something as intangible as likely demand for a product in a new(ish) category?), I took a look at the ranges that some other people have laid out and used them to set a 'stretch' goal for Apple: 50 million units in the first year. That’s pretty much the high end of today’s forecasts with a few million more units added on.
Here are the numbers he used:
In a Fortune survey done on March 2, 2015, financial analysts offered a range of predictions from
8 million to 41 million for the Apple Watch’s first-year sales
How to Shape Your Apple Watch Predictions to Suit Your Goals
Let's start with the fact that 50 million units isn't "pretty much the high end of today’s forecasts with a few million more units added on." It's a full 21.95 percent above the highest of the high end. It's also more than double the average of the analysts estimates he cited—122.5 percent of the average, for those keeping score at home.
And if Apple does this—sells more than 20 percent above the most enthusiastic predictions, and more than twice the consensus—then, and only then, will Mr. Kay magnanimously admit that he was wrong. From Mr. Kay:
Here’s what I’m going to do if Apple does manage to sell 50 million watches by April 24, 2016, a year from the starting ship date: I’ll get a T-shirt made that says, 'I ♥ Tim Cook' on the front and 'You were right. I was wrong' on the back. In large letters. Credit Ryan Wood, a personal trainer at my health club, for the actual wording. I will wear this shirt and have pictures taken, front and back, which I will post to Facebook’s Instagram with proper notification to my various distribution lists and social media along with a reminder of what this is all about for those who dump their own memory cache periodically to make room for the next crazy thing.
How generous!
I wrote a piece looking at the mental gymnastics required to be a member of the Church Apple Doom, but this takes the cake. Mr. Kay is setting the bar for Apple Watch success in fantasy land and couching that as reasonable so that no matter how well it does, he will still be able to label it a failure.
The funny thing is that I also have a bet running on Apple Watch with my friend Rocco Pendola. About a year ago I bet him that Apple would sell 40 million Apple Watches in the first full year of availability. I'm going to lose that bet. I was thinking in iPhone terms, not a new product category, and I was thinking about it as a fan of watches. I made a terrible bet, and I'm OK with that.
If Apple sells 2 million units in the first year, it would be a huge success compared to any other piece of wearable computing on the planet. Those kinds of numbers would make the device a blowout hit by any yardstick other than "Apple." At 5-10 million units, Apple will have a runaway success by any sane standard. Apple Watch sales above that will simply be stunning.
But don't look to Roger Kay to acknowledge such success.
Then every day you didn't really need it, you paid a dollar for nothing.
This is what it would cost to add a Samsung Gear S Smartwatch to a Cell plan.
Currently, the only phones compatible with the Gear S are the Samsung Galaxy S III, Galaxy S 4, Galaxy S 4 mini, Galaxy S 5, Galaxy S5 Sport, and the Galaxy Note II, 3, and 4.
Sprint customers can purchase the Gear S for $0 down, and 24 monthly payments of $16 ($384 total), but will also have to pay an additional $10 per month on its Family Share Pack plan. However, Sprint is waiving the monthly fee through December 2015 if you sign up for a 20GB or higher Family Share Pack plan. However, the Gear S will use Sprint's 3G network, and not its LTE network.
On AT&T, the Gear S will cost $199 with a two-year agreement, plus an additional $10 per month on a Mobile Share Plan.
Though T-Mobile, the Gear S will cost $0 initially, then $14.58 per month (a total retail price of $349). T-Mobile is also offering a special rate plan for $5 a month for unlimited talk, texting, music streaming and up to 500MB of LTE data.
With the waived monthly fee, Sprint's plan will end up costing $504 over two years, compared to $439 for AT&T and $469 for T-Mobile.
It's also expected that Verizon will also offer the Gear S, though its plans have yet to be announced.
So far, sales of smartwatches have been slow, but perhaps the inclusion of an independent 3G connection will boost the popularity of this nascent category, enabling consumers to really leave their phones at home or in their pockets.
It’s for the fact that phones are getting big to the point that they’re notably inconvenient to dig out of pocket, purse or briefcase just to check the latest notification, time, or other trivial glance.
++++
Maybe that’s why I don’t want one. I can pretty much tell time intuitively plus I have clocks all around me. I don’t need or want a watch. I never check notifications.
Try watching a YouTube video or reading and posting to FR with your shiny new iWatch. Good luck with that.
If you like the Apple watch, then you’ll love the Apple iRing. It’s a ring that connects to your Apple Watch (that’s connected to your iPhone in your pocket) so that you will no longer be burdened to raise your cuff to see the Apple watch. Messages are displayed in the unprecedented unbelievable amazing retinal sapphire display. The iRing display is so advanced, that it can display an incredible FULL character at a time. iRoll technology allows you switch between apps by simply rolling the iRing around your finger. It has battery technology so advanced, that it can last your entire commute. The Apple iRing is designed by iJony Ive, to be the most beautiful and functional device ever created by Apple.
The Apple iRing will compete with the Android Cuff-Linkdroid and the Microsoft eButt-On electronic button.
LOL. I'm thinking you may be on to something. Better grab that Apple stock while it is still affordable.
you're sort of proving my point.
The TimmyC® find a queer app is sure to make it a success amongst the 2.5%.
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He’s got to best BoyAhoy , Grindr (what exactly are they grinding into what?) , Grindr Extra , Dandy , GayPark and HookApp... Maybe he’ll just add a big surcharge in the Apple Appstore on the competitors.
I agree completely.
My understanding of the current iWatch is that it requires an iPhone to function completely.
Is that not currect? Does the iWatch function as a phone all on its own?
The Apple Watch is inductively charged. A magnetic induction charger antenna is attached to the back of the watch to charge it at night. Just tossing it on a mat won't work because of orientation problems; the watch band would get in the way.
I don't have a clue but if you have not watched the TV Series Tera Nova maybe you could get a clue what it might be used for toward the end of the series.
I doubt you or I are their target user base.
Yes, it’s an extension of the phone - for those who use the phone a great deal.
Neither of those are listed functions of the Apple Watch. . . nor would they be something one would wish to do with one.
Several benefits that I can see:
Those are just the ones I have read about without going in to the thousands of apps that Apple is now talking about that will be available on April 24th when the Apple Watch will start being delivered.
Nice list but not stuff I do. But you are probably right about the use of Sirii. But what do you do when You say “Fullerton” to your iWatch and Siri hears “Fulton”? Editing will be a bear.
Hilarious.
However, for those older folks who eschew jewelry, Apple is going to be releasing the iLiver spot, which can be hidden on the back of the discriminating oldsters hand. . . It activates only when the senior citizen weakly raises their arm and squints at the appropriate location between the blue veins. Phone calls are directly routed to the senior's hearing aid, bypassing the need for microphone and speaker in the iLiver spot. As a bonus, the owner of the iLiver spot will have a reason for people thinking they are talking to themselves; they can just point to their ear and say "phone call!"
The sub-dermal placement of the iLiver spot makes this revolutionary technology completely waterproof and the senior owner of the iLiver spot can safely use the device in their walk-in bathtubs. Powered by electrical skin capacitance, the iLiver spot never needs recharging and comes with a short life time guarantee.
Also available in the Apple iTattoo version for younger Apple fans. Requires Apple Bluetooth ear bud required in lieu of hearing aid.
This would be the reason I would buy it. I drive a lot.
How? In that you have claimed something that none of the Apple iPhone or iPad users have NEVER heard before as common? The fact that someone like you is hearing such a weird rumor about Apple devices is creepy.
Who spreads such an odd claims that Apple devices "need to be fed?" Who makes up such crap?
I have NEVER, in almost 40 years of working with Apple users, ever heard an Apple user say, "I've got to go home to feed my Apple (insert Apple product here)."
That you would believe such a claim that Apple users would ever say such a thing, or believe such a thing, or that some non-Apple user would even spread such a claim, that IS what is creepy.
After maintaining the Apple Ping List on Freerepublic for over ten years, I thought I could not be surprised at anything the Apple haters could come up with, but i was wrong; you surprised me with your statement. . . not that I am counting you among the haters.
More Watch apps:
- “Geofence” tickets, like having your ticket code appear on the Watch as you approach the airline loading gate (or other e-ticket-requiring location), able to scan or proximity your boarding pass while your hands are full of luggage.
- Games. C’mon, you know this will be big once something as addictive as Angry Birds is invented for the new platform.
- There are medical applications coming that will blow your mind.
- Adaptive watch faces and context-dependent apps: depending on where you are, how fast you’re moving, and what your calendar notes, different expressions of time are more useful; nice to have those appear as appropriate. Nighttime, at home, not moving? you don’t need seconds or exact minutes, but good time to track your movement (I’ve nearly a year logged on my sleep app). Driving to work in the morning? show countdown & ETA. Lunch? time left. Party? crazy watch face. At fine dining? elegant style. To complicated? pick a random time display style. All without having to decide & set the face motif. Maybe you get the idea.
- Accurate & automatic time zones & DST. Traveling? kinda sucks when you don’t know quite where the time zone line is. DST? less I have to deal with it the better. Both cases, your time setting is accurate within milliseconds and feet.
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