The Problem Factory: Where Apple problems get manufactured

Macworld.com ^ | Dec 27, 2014 4:00 AM | The Macalope

[Swordmaker]

We’re close to the end of yet another year, but take heart! Some silly pundits made progress this year! Take Business Insider’s Jay Yarow, for example, who no longer believes market share is a problem for Apple. No, he just believes the perception of market share is a problem for Apple. OK, it’s pretty minimal progress but still...

“Apple Executives Apparently Think The Data Used To Measure Smartphone Market Share Is Garbage” (indirect link and a tip o’ the antlers to Steve Boothe)

Actually, what Apple says is “off the mark,” but you can’t write a Business Insider headline without BLAZZLEFROZZLE.

Since Apple started selling the iPhone, things have been pretty great for the company.

Actually, things have been pretty great since they started selling the iPod back in 2001. But go ahead, caller.

But there’s been one small nagging data point that’s not so great for Apple...

The nit-witted nay-sayer index?

...smartphone market share.

Oh, well, the Macalope was directionally correct. Because that’s the only group that obsesses over market share.

Market share doesn’t matter, for the most part.

At least Yarow has come to accept this fact, after years of reality intervention therapy. His boss, Henry Blodget, however, not so much. Blodget still believes that any day now, like crabs migrating across an island, driven by a complicated biological imperative, developers will summarily throw out Xcode and suddenly start coding in Java. Because to Blodget, market share means money. Only in this case it actually doesn’t mean money so they’d really just be doing it out of mass insanity.

As a result, developers have not bailed. They’ve done the opposite. They’re building for iOS first, and Android second, despite the market share disparity.

Still!

Still! I work at Business Insider and Apple doom is our business model so... here we are.

Pity Yarow who, despite knowing that market share is meaningless, has to come up with increasingly convoluted arguments for why it matters. The Macalope’s had crazy bosses before, who insisted things were one way despite all evidence to the contrary, so he can sympathize.

“Hey, Macalope. This thing that’s more expensive? We need a presentation showing that it’s actually cheaper.”

“Uhhh...”

“By 9:00 AM tomorrow.”

Aaaand that’s why he does this now. And has that twitch.

But did you know you can just create problems for people by talking about them? It’s true. In Business Insider world, anyway.

This market share thing remains a thorn in Apple’s side.

Whyyyyy?

People just don’t think the iPhone business can continue to succeed if its market share remains stalled.

People! They think this! It is a thing that people think! Who are these “people” of whom Yarow speaks? Well, his boss, mostly. But is his boss really “people”? There’s actually some evidence he’s a form of jerky-based lifeform. Some of it turkey, some of it teriyaki, but all of it jerky.

They view it as a long-term threat, despite Apple’s continued iPhone sales growth.

So very many indefinite pronouns believe this about Apple.

Having established this “fact,” Yarow will now helpfully find a solution for Apple as if the problem were actually market share and not his employment situation.

It seems like the only way for Apple to fix this market share “problem” is to lower prices to sell more phones...

“You don’t have a zombie virus working your way up your arm, but some people think you do, so we should cut your arm off to solve the ‘problem.’”

Now, who exactly has the “problem”? Is it Apple, or is it the serial jerky meats like Yarow’s boss who don’t understand market dynamics? Presumably educating Henry Blodget is off the table.

Buried in a Walt Mossberg column on Apple and Google is this tiny nugget, with our emphasis added: “In my conversations with Apple executives, they vehemently insist that market share isn’t—and won’t be—their goal, and even go so far as to say that most public market-share numbers are somehow off the mark, though they decline to explain how.”

Yarow notes that Apple’s the only company that regularly reports its smartphone sales. Market share numbers, therefore, have to be based on estimates of shipments of its competitors’ phones, which often go unsold (cough—Samsung—cough). Also, if we’re talking about what developers might be more interested in, installed base is probably more important and Apple’s devices retain their value longer.

The best thing for Apple to do, though, is to keep doing what it’s been doing.

It turns out what’s most important for Business Insider is writing a piece about an Apple problem. Even if that problem is one they made up.

[tacticalogic]

It's considered one of the greatest ads in history for a variety of reasons.

You might even call it "definitive".

[SamAdams76]

It's a misnomer that IBM "went down".

While IBM was pushed out of the spotlight by upstarts like Microsoft, Google and Apple, it continues to be a very strong company and a good "blue chip" investment.

IBM had close to $100 billion in revenue last year and will be around for quite a while.

[SamAdams76]

It's humorous to see the Apple haters pop up in these threads, predicting their imminent demise, while they (Apple) continue to roll up immense profits by bringing superior products to market that millions of people are willing to pay a premium for (hence high margins to Apple).

The market share argument is ludicrous. It's like saying that gourmet burger joints are doomed to go out of business because McDonalds sells far more burgers at a lower cost.

[DigitalVideoDude]

Long live “IBM i”!!

[adorno]

"Sure, I lose a little on each unit. But I make it up in VOLUME!"

That's a good joke, and pretty much a losing proposition for most companies.

But, the tech industry is quite a different animal, and oftentimes, market share is very important.

An established market share that is much higher than the competition, no matter how profitable that competition is, can be a better long-term strategy. Android has a much larger installed user base, and, devices aren't being very profitable for Google and the makers. But, market share is very important for the after-market sales of products and services and software that can be used by that large installed base. Apple is very successful now, but, mostly as a result of the premium prices that people have to pay to own Apple's iPhone. The after market services for Apple are also profitable, but, that after-market revenue could disappear very quickly if iPhones were to take a tumble and lose the loyal following which keeps Apple in the stratosphere. Apple is playing with fire by continuing to count on its loyal base to keep upgrading to the newest minimally improved iPhone. While it's currently doing great, market share could take them to even higher places. But, huge market share is not possible for devices which are more costly than the competition. There are only so many people who want to pay premium prices for any device, not just Apple's.

Microsoft doesn't make any money from the sales of Windows machines, other than their own, and the money they do get from Windows licenses, is not enough to justify continuing to keep Windows alive. So, the strategy for Microsoft is to make their money with the after-market sales of software and services. That strategy is about market share. Apple's strategy is about making most of their money up-front from higher prices on their devices.

For now, Apple's strategy to make as much as they can while they can from higher prices, is seen as a great business strategy. It's working now, but, it won't last forever, and Apple will, undoubtedly, come down to Earth when people begin realizing that, there really is no need to pay premium prices for products which, other than looking good and perhaps of high quality, aren't really that much better than comparable devices selling for a lot less.

It's not a matter of "if", but of "when" Apple has to start selling their devices at lower prices, then, market share will start to matter a lot.

[minnesota_bound]

I use a LG G3 android phone. Prior one was a Samsung galaxy S4. I pay $30 a month with T-Mobile and bought my phones on Ebay. I use Windows for my PC.

However I own Apple stock and I have a table with the amount of shares I have and various stock prices in one column with how much the stock is worth in a second column.
It is my wish list. I hope it goes back up to the $700 it was before the 7 to 1 stock split. May not happen but it is nice to look at that table and dream of riches. : )

BTW Microsoft stock is bound to go up when Windows 10 comes out sometime next year. I will look at it when Microsoft nails down a release date.

Apple I think makes their money with deals with the cell phone vendors and wireless companies. They get money on the phone and from the other companies. Android vendors do not have that kind of deal.

[Swordmaker]

You know very little about the demise of IBM. I owned stock in the company starting back in 1958. If Apple doesn’t get its head out of its keyster, it will follow its predecessors into the wastebasket of history.

Last time I looked, IBM is still around. It has not "demised" or died. It's current Market Cap is 160.6 Billion dollars. . . half of what Microsoft's Market cap, which is a bit more than half of Apple's Market cap. Where's the "demise?"

Apple has far more diversity in their product mix than either IBM or Microsoft ever had, and has far better forward prospects than either company has. Except for the iPod, every one of their products is growing sales. So, exactly what "keyster" (sic) is Apple's head in?

[Swordmaker]

“Smug sells, until it doesn’t.”

Hear, Hear!

Strange. I was thinking that "Smug" is the province of people who post comments such as “Smug sells, until it doesn’t.”

[Swordmaker]

An established market share that is much higher than the competition, no matter how profitable that competition is, can be a better long-term strategy. Android has a much larger installed user base, and, devices aren't being very profitable for Google and the makers. But, market share is very important for the after-market sales of products and services and software that can be used by that large installed base. Apple is very successful now, but, mostly as a result of the premium prices that people have to pay to own Apple's iPhone. The after market services for Apple are also profitable, but, that after-market revenue could disappear very quickly if iPhones were to take a tumble and lose the loyal following which keeps Apple in the stratosphere. Apple is playing with fire by continuing to count on its loyal base to keep upgrading to the newest minimally improved iPhone. While it's currently doing great, market share could take them to even higher places. But, huge market share is not possible for devices which are more costly than the competition. There are only so many people who want to pay premium prices for any device, not just Apple's.

Your analysis is totally wrong when it comes to Apple. . . because the after market products for Android simply is NOT there. There is a thriving after market for iPhones and iPads, but show me the after market for Android phones and tablets. You won't find it. There is too much fragmentation in that market for anyone to make money servicing any particular model of Android phone for aftermarket accessories.

On the other hand, the standardizations in iOS devices has allowed the aftermarket to easily focus on iPhones and iPads for after market accessories. Just walking in the Mall the other day there were kiosks for iPhone and iPad 3rd party accessories . . . cases, screen protectors, etc., that covered 90% of the two or three kiosks specializing in mobile accessories. . . and only 10% of the space reserved for Android accessories and then only for the top selling models from Samsung and perhaps LG. It just is NOT happening. Again, Look around at a Consumer Electronics store and count the number of products that have docking connectors built in for iPhone and iPads. Then see if you can even FIND one for Android phones. Crickets. . . they don't have them because there are so many different locations on the devices where the connectors can be located, the manufacturers cannot build a universal docking station!

Software? Too many models of Android for the developers to try and optimize their apps for. . . too many screen sizes, too many resolutions in those screen sizes.

Android Fragmentation in the Wild at the beginning of 2014 — Over 2000 different models
and it's worse at the end of the year.

At the end of the last quarter, only THREE out of over 300 manufacturers of Android phones posted any profits at all. . . and the number three, Xiaomi, posted a profit of only $7 million dollars. Now we learn that number three could only do that because they paid NO ROYALTIES OR LICENSES for any of the technology in their phones to anyone, Nokia, Sony, Apple, Microsoft, Samsung, Qualcomm, and any of the other 225 other patent holders that everyone else is paying IP licensing for the underlying technology to make their phones!!! They've earned a cease and desist order and had their products banned from sale in India for infringement until the case reaches trial. Oops.

So, adorno, are those over 225 manufacturers of Android phones going to make up their sales loses by their immense volume as they ship money out the door with every Android phone they sell?

Microsoft doesn't make any money from the sales of Windows machines, other than their own, and the money they do get from Windows licenses, is not enough to justify continuing to keep Windows alive. So, the strategy for Microsoft is to make their money with the after-market sales of software and services. That strategy is about market share. Apple's strategy is about making most of their money up-front from higher prices on their devices.

That is one of the funniest things you've said in a long time. Microsoft doesn't make any money from the sales of Windows machines. Have you checked the price of an OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) license for a SINGLE installation of Windows Professional lately? Fry's had them on sale for retail this weekend. $104.00. Of course, a manufacturer such as Dell can purchase them at a discount, say for $52 per unit, but to say that Microsoft makes NO MONEY from the sale of each Windows computer shows just how naive you are!

Microsoft also makes money on continued licensing for businesses of that OS and any MS software the business uses. . . usually a PER SEAT license that is renewable yearly. You keep demonstrating you don't have a clue about the economics of how these companies make their money. Yet you pontificate on what Apple should be doing. SHEESH!

You continually spout about something you have never used. . . stating it's about "people paying high prices for looking good," when you don't understand a thing about what gives Apple its imprimatur. You think it's about user VANITY. You don't have a clue. You state that Apple survives by customers rebutting. . . but there are now OVER ONE BILLION iOS devices in use in the world. . . and they cannot have ALL been bought or be being used by a core of Apple users, just upgrading. . . over and over again. No, they are being bought by EX-Android phone users, EX-Windows PC users, and new buyers. . . people who CHOOSE to buy, not because they want to "look good."

[Swordmaker]

Apple I think makes their money with deals with the cell phone vendors and wireless companies. They get money on the phone and from the other companies. Android vendors do not have that kind of deal.

Android vendors have the same subsidy deals that Apple has with the cell phone vendors and wireless companies. The cell phone companies buy the phones from both Apple the Android makers and then resell them to their subscribers in a subsidized fashion. . . except it is actually a talk-now, pay later plan in which the subscriber makes a downpayment and then pays monthly in their phone plan for the phone, whichever make it is. The phone company subsidizes the phone cost in the plan costs. . . that's why everyone SHOULD upgrade as soon as you qualify to upgrade! You are paying for it in your plan price! If you don't upgrade, you are just GIVING the phone company your money for free.

[Up Yours Marxists]

Your statement was factually correct. Although your context wasn't.

I'm finding it rather comical people never change. They feel emboldened by their trendy technology. If you love their products so much, put your money where your mouth is and invest. Go ahead.

And no, I don't hate Apple. Me and the misses own iPhone 5's. They're simple and they work. We owned stock in the 80's, but sold in the 90's when they went off the rails, teaming up with IBM and producing absolute garbage for 5 years. And they seem to be doing it again. The new phones look just like other Korean phones that came out a few years back. Apple was known to be an innovator. Sorry, you can't innovate from behind.



You're seeing the beginning of the end of the honeymoon for Apple. If they don't get their act together and start offering products that are actually purposeful, simple, flexible, and ergonomic, instead of trendy, eclectic overpriced entertainment paperweights, they're going to decline as fast as they climbed. With Microsoft and Google offering more and more Android offerings, that trend in the market is set to dominate the landscape by 2020. Without Jobs, it appears there's no Apple. Pity.

[Swordmaker]

Up yours, you are falling for the Market Share fallacy. . . and the prediction fallacy. If you think Apple products are "trendy, eclectic overpriced entertainment paperweights" and not "purposeful, simple, flexible, and ergonomic" devices, then YOU are not paying attention to the Apple ecosystem of how everything works together, productively, and interactively. I don't think you have any other Apple products except your iPhone 5s, and as a result do not, and can not, see the forrest for the single tree you have.

Even your cut and paste graphs show a SINGLE COMPANY maintaining half the market. . . but you still fail to address the problem in the other half of the market: profits. Did you even READ what is factual about that severe issue for them? Yes, they are shipping, but not selling to end users for ANY profit at all, large numbers of Android cellular phones. That is not a sustainable businessmodel, much less an industry model, Up Yours Marxists! They can NEVER make it up on volume. It's a one way ticket to the bankruptcy court.

Apple, with its small share of the world market, took home 87% of the world wide profits. Samsung, the number two manufacturer, concentrated in Android phones, took home 23%, and Xiaomi, took 1% (while cheating on costs). Yes, I know that totals 111%, but that's because the other 222 manufacturers all LOST money and reported negative numbers as they poured money out the door in a futile competitive chase for market share by ever and ever spiraling downward phone pricing and BOGO offers.

Apple doesn't report units "shipped", Up Yours, instead reporting actual units "sold to end users". The other manufacturers don't even report "units shipped", but rather "dollar volume shipped" from which their numbers are extrapolated by analysis. . . and then derived by comparing to units received at retailers. Many of the numbers "shipped" are never sold to end users but languish in reseller inventories until they are returned for resale at discounts and counted again in more "shipments" or slated for destruction.

Your predictions are bogus. . . Developers are STILL developing apps for iOS first, and then developing less capable apps for Android. . . Maybe, if they see a market. But Android users want free apps. They don't want to pay for them. The market is in iOS. This Christmas Season, iPhone and iPad users bought FOUR times more merchandise online than did Android users. . . and in the long run, that's why you're wrong: Android users are CHEAP!

[Swordmaker]

Incidentally, Up Yours, the value and accuracy of your pretty charts from IDC should be obvious from the data they give for the market share for Windows Phone for 2014. 16.1% !!!

WOW! That’s impressive.

REALLY????

The reality was that ALL Windows Phones captured an whopping 2.5% of the phone market in 2014 down from 3.1% in 2013!

IDC missed Apple’s production of Macs this last quarter, too, by 23% too low, predicting a 7% drop in sales instead of the actual 18% market leading record gain!

So much for your IDC predictions!

[adorno]

Only in a world that has Apple fanatics going bonkers if anyone dares to utter a single negative word about Apple, would market-share not matter. Market share, in any industry, is of the utmost importance, and though Apple is doing quite well with a lesser market share, it won’t be doing so hot once the Apple fanatics begin realizing that, they’ve been paying too much for something that isn’t really that much better, if at all, than the competition.

You can write the same stupid comments, and copy and paste all you want, but, market share eventually wins, even if it takes a long time to show the benefits of that market share.

Android, right now, is not much in profits for Google, and the device makers are barely scraping by, and Samsung might have to quite the Android space, but, the vast majority of devices will still be coming in with “no Apple tech inside”, other than the components and processors which are virtually the same for all smartphones.

Apple, simply put, is a bubble,and that bubble will burst sometime in the future, perhaps not within the next 2 or 3 years, but, “soon”.

I predicted the Samsung “meltdown” a couple of years ago, and I’m predicting that the whole Android space will also drop dramatically in the next 3-5 years, and Apple will still be the most profitable, but, not with the same stratospheric numbers they’ve enjoyed for the past 7 years. They’ll be coming back down to Earth, and the smartphones market will have makers and OS developers working in more or less, equal grounds, with no one company being so dominant, and no OS being so dominant.

[adorno]

BTW, that "one billion iOS devices" in the field, has to be a pure pipe dream of yours.

Apple may have sold close to a billion iOS devices, but, that includes iPods (all versions and years), iPhones (all versions and years), iPads (all versions and years), BUT, that the number of devices sold for all of the last 12-13 years, including the iPods.

But you have to remember that, the number of devices sold, is not the same as the number of active installations. The number of active installations for iPhones and iPads, is less than 400 million, and the iPods will likely disappear from the tech landscape in the next 1-2 years. In fact, the number for the installed base of iOS devices, could be closer to 300 million. Remember that, the majority of iOS device sales is to the same loyal user-base. So, selling 100 million iOS devices doesn't mean the same as adding 100 million new iOS users.

Here's a snippet from an article written Oct 15, 2013:

On Sept. 23, Tim Cook announced that iOS 7 downloads had passed 200 million within an active device base of 350 million units. Fortune notes that this means that as of Monday, Oct. 14, 250 million were running iOS 7.

So, that points to an "active device base of 350 million, and by now, if one were to be generous to Apple, by now, they might be at about 400 million active iOS instances. But, considering that the majority of new sales are to the same loyal users of iOS, the active users would have to be less than 400 million.

But, nice try with your exaggeration in trying to defend Apple. Once the iPods ride into the sunset, the number of active instances of iOS, will drop by many millions.

So, why are the Apple fanatics so defensive, and why do they have to make up their own facts in order to defend the hive?

[Swordmaker]

BTW, that "one billion iOS devices" in the field, has to be a pure pipe dream of yours.

So I am a liar, or a terrible exaggerator, am I? As I once posted to another one of you trolls, it may have been you, I do not post things I am not prepared to back up. . . completely. You. . . are again hoist on your own petard.

"WWDC statshot: 800 million iOS devices sold, 75 billion apps downloaded" — June 2014

Apple has sold “well over 800 million” iOS devices since the launch of the first iPhone, according to Cook. This number includes over 100 million iPod touch units, over 200 million iPads and over 500 Million iPhones. iOS devices brought 130 million new customers to Apple during the last 12 months.

That number was based on the audited numbers as of the end of the second fiscal quarter of 2014. . . and Apple was selling approximately 50 million iOS devices between iPhones and iPads, not counting iPod Touches. . . by the time the end of 2014 rolls over, Apple will easily hit 1 billion iOS devices. In fact, it was reported that Apple would sell its 1 billionth iOS device sometime in the last quarter of 2014 (Apple 1st FY Quarter 2015).

Also, this referencing the Apple Financial Conference Call on October 21, 2014 in which Tim Cook and the CFO of Apple reported Apple's last Quarter of fiscal 2014 and the entire fiscal year, proves you are completely out in left field, again:

"Tim Cook was pleased to announce that in FY2014, Apple sold 250 million iOS devices. That means that since 2007, Apple has sold over 950 million iOS devices in total and is on track to sell it's billionth iOS device sometime in Q12015.—Source Seeking Alpha—Things Overlooked in Apple's Conference Call, by Ryan Jones, Oct. 22, 2014 8:33 AM

On Sept. 23, Tim Cook announced that iOS 7 downloads had passed 200 million within an active device base of 350 million units. Fortune notes that this means that as of Monday, Oct. 14, 250 million were running iOS 7.

Oh, WOW! You take a quotation from Tim Cook completely out of context. Tim Cook was talking about the iPhones and iPads capable of DOWNLOADING iOS 7. . . not about the entire iOS installed base. Again you don't know anything about what you are talking about. None of the iOS devices earlier than the iPhone 4 could install iOS 7. . . so he was NOT REFERRING TO THEM in his 350 million units. Good Grief, do you love to spout off about things you know nothing about, just to sound knowledgeable and think you are "smart." You aren't.

Remember that, the majority of iOS device sales is to the same loyal user-base.

Only in your warped mind. . . you don't sell one billion devices to repeat customers, adorno. . . nor do you start out in one country and sell repeat devices to those same customers in over 150 countries. Are you this much of an idiot that you believe the bilge you post?

Why are you so offensive? And why are you always so wrong????

[adorno]

You are a very terrible exaggerator, or somebody that just loves Apple to death.

Apple DOES NOT have anything even approaching the billion users mark. They may have sold close to a billion iOS devices, but, simple common sense says that, not all of them are still in use. People do upgrade their devices, and with Apple, people upgrade without even having a need to do so.

I’ve owned about 30 PC devices over the last 30 years, and I’ve only got 4 of them in use right now. If one were to count the number of Windows devices that people bought over the last 20-30 years, and then assumed that they were active installations, then, Windows would have an installed active user base of some 40-50 billion. But, people don’t keep the old technology around when they purchase upgraded equipment. That would be ludicrous. Your figures are very faulty and ridiculous.

I gave you a bit of logical interpretation of Apple’s own numbers, but you are so upset that I would even think about disputing your numbers, that you are failing to think rationally.

The same kind of thing occurs with the Android faithful, who constantly mention the number of activations of Android devices, without regarding that, perhaps not all of them can get added to the number of active installations. Sales of devices does not equate to having that number added to the current installed base. It doesn’t happen that way..

[adorno]

Here's a report (from 2013):

http://venturebeat.com/2013/02/06/800-million-android-smartphones-300-million-iphones-in-active-use-by-december-2013-study-says/

"By the end of this current year (2013), 1.4 billion smartphones will be in use: 798 million of them will run Android, 294 million will run Apple’s iOS, and 45 million will run Windows Phone, according to a new study by ABI Research."

Though the report is about a year old, there is absolutely no way that the figure for iPhones is going to surpass the "leader", that being Android, which had close to 800 billion.

iPads are losing sales, and the only thing that will continue selling in high numbers will be iPhones. But, iPhones won't get anywhere to 100 new users any time soon, and not even in the next 5 years. People are content enough with devices which do all they need from smartphones, with plenty of features and power to spare.

So, again, your 1 billion is about the number of iOS devices "sold", and not the number of active installations of the OS. People do retire their old devices, you know, and not all iOS devices sold in the last 13 years will still be around to keep the number at 1 billion active users.

[Swordmaker]

http://venturebeat.com/2013/02/06/800-million-android-smartphones-300-million-iphones-in-active-use-by-december-2013-study-says/

"By the end of this current year (2013), 1.4 billion smartphones will be in use: 798 million of them will run Android, 294 million will run Apple’s iOS, and 45 million will run Windows Phone, according to a new study by ABI Research."

Very funny, adorno. Let's see, 798 million Androids plus 294 million iPhones, and 45 million windows phones (LOL, they had to revise that downward to 35 million after returns!) . . . that totals 1.137 Billion smartphones by the end of 2013. By their own figures, they have 263 million smartphones missing!

Who made those, adorno?

The Phone Fairy??? White Box Elves?

Not too accurate, don't you think? Are they just bad at math, or counting?

First of all, adorno, iPhones are NOT the only iOS devices out there, even though they are woefully undercounting them. Your report is counting iPhones, ignoring iPads, iPod touches, and AppleTV. . . millions of devices.

Secondly, here's another reason for the discrepancies. . . Apple is the only manufacturer to actually report REAL numbers of devices sold through to end users. The rest merely report, if they report at all, volume of product shipped into the market, not sold. In fact, as was revealed in court documents in the Apple v. Samsung lawsuit two years ago, SAMSUNG LIED about their numbers of their Galaxy Tab tablet shipped by a factor of SEVEN:

"The original Galaxy Tab arrived in 2010, and Samsung sold 262,000 units in the US, after claiming they had shipped over 2 million units. From the fourth quarter of 2010 through the middle of 2012, Samsung sold 1.4 million Galaxy Tab and Galaxy Tab 10.1 tablets, generating $644 million in revenue. — Source: Macgasm.com, August 10, 2012 (Before you attack the source as Apple centric, there is multiple sourcing on this including the Court documents.)

If Samsung lied about this flagship product, how much did they lie about their shipments of other products? Since Samsung and other Android manufacturers are not traded on the US Stock Exchanges, they are not required to submit audited Financial statements to the US Securities and Exchange Commission proving what their management and officers claim in their public statements or reports. Apple is.

How much are the other manufacturers similarly exaggerating their shipment figures?

Thirdly, better than 40% of the so-called Android market is attributed to un-named "white-box" manufacturers who do not report "shipments" at all. . . nor are their devices ever "activated" by Google or any other activation service, or connect to an official store to be counted. They are essentially TOYS. Many of them are merely "imputed" to exist, have been created to inflate the number of Android devices by the organizations who are paid to "count these devices. Nobody seems to be able to find these un-named white box Android devices.

Finally, these figures are SO FAR OFF THE MARK, they are ridiculous! At the middle of 2012—in June 2012, to be specific—Apple had submitted to the Securities and Exchange Commission of the United States Government reports showing Apple had manufactured, sold, and activated total of over 410 MILLION iOS devices. That was SIXTEEN MONTHS before this idiotic guesstimate was published which was apparently pulled from some ANAL-lyst's or journalist's nether orifice! He certainly did not bother to do due diligence in his research.

Look at this evidence, just four months after that idiotic article you cut and pasted which was dated February 6, 2013:

• Apple has now sold 600 million iOS devices —Source: Engadget.com, June 10, 2013.

Do you think Apple made and sold an astonishing 300 Million iOS devices in JUST FOUR MONTHS, adorno???? Apple is good, but not THAT good.

Oh, look, here's another, just THREE MONTHS LATER than the last one:

• Cook: More than 700 million iOS devices sold. —Source: Macworld, September 10, 2013

Oh, and in the final calendar quarter of 2013, Apple's audited financial reports showed that:

• Apple sold 88 million iOS devices, counting 6 million iPod Touches, 5 million AppleTVs, 51 million iPhones, and 26 million iPads. . . bringing the total to almost 800 million iOS devices by the end of calendar 2013 — Apple Investor Relations, Quarterly and Annual Reports.

Those reports sure do shoot down your post, don't they?

Then, we have:

• Tim Cook announcing the sale of more than 250 million iOS devices at the last audited Financial Report for the 2014 Fiscal year ended September 27, 2014 — Apple Investor Relations, Quarterly and Annual Reports.

And that was just before we had the 2014 holiday season which every metric shows has been an:

• Apple Mobile device Christmas with 51% of all mobile devices being activated worldwide are iOS devices! — Source: Yahoo: Flurry.

Apple has easily topped One Billion iOS devices.

And no, the rate of iOS device retirement and failure is not enough to reduce that number by much. People DON'T throw iOS devices in drawers to languish, when they can sell them for hundreds of dollars on eBay or hand them down to family members because they are still useful.

You keep your softshoe dancing up, adorno. Apple sold 250 MILLION just in the last fiscal year alone. . . and not all users upgraded in one year, adorno! In fact, the average iPhone user does not upgrade every year. . . or even every two years. The life cycle of an iPhone is FAR longer than Android phones. iPhones are not just turned off and tossed in drawers when a user upgrades. They are either handed down to a family member or resold to be sold again. . . as an iOS device in another country. Your reports are totally bogus. I will go with the reports that APPLE puts out based on their users. NOT some analysts wild ass guesses.

You are citing an estimate made in FEBRUARY of 2013, almost TWO YEARS AGO. Do you seriously think this market has stood STILL in that time? It has not. Quit citing antique guesses by ANAL-lysts.

Android now has approximately 1.2-1.4 billion devices out in the wild, so Apple has NOT surpassed the market leader, contrary to your assertion. They have been selling phones as fast as they can in the last year as well . . . and there are 225 manufacturers of their junk phones, most of which are not smart phones or tablets.

iPads are not "losing sales," adorno, they are just not GROWING as fast as they once did. There is a difference. They are still the highest selling tablets in a shrinking market. EVERY tablet is not growing as fast a they once did. The replacement cycle of tablets is far longer than is the replacement cycle of smartphones. Smartphones are on a two year exchange cycle but iPads, in particular, have developed a three to four year replacement cycle. Families with iPads are more likely to ADD iPads or other Apple products to their line-up than to replace the iPad they have. They do not wear out, nor are they obsoleted as fast as phones. As primarily consumption devices that are not telephone communications devices, even the first model iPad will still connect just as well with the Internet as it did on the day it was purchased. Yes, a newer one has a better screen and is faster, but that is not sufficient to cause the need to upgrade. Most ADD a new one without retiring the old one. My original is in the hands of my daughter. . . who handed it to her daughter, when she bought an iPad mini that would fit in her purse better.

My girlfriend is perfectly happy with her original Retina iPad from two years ago. Why upgrade? I am happy with my iPad Air. . . because i wanted something lighter when I read in bed. . . so I bought one and handed my older iPad 3rd edition down to my other daughter as a gift. NONE of these has stopped working. . . or been turned off.

Similarly none of the iPhones i have owned or my family has owned has ever been retired to a drawer. My girlfriend, however, has a drawer full of dead Android phones she had used before she upgraded to an iPhone. . . NONE of those is still being used. . . and everyone of THOSE Android phones is counted in the 1.2-1.4 billion Android phones shipped. . . but they are DEAD. Never, ever, to be used again.

So, again, your 1 billion is about the number of iOS devices "sold", and not the number of active installations of the OS. People do retire their old devices, you know, and not all iOS devices sold in the last 13 years will still be around to keep the number at 1 billion active users.

You keep tossing out that 13 year figure. . . and that is another error on your part . . . which I keep correcting you on. iPods up to the iPod Touch were NOT iOS. They were operating on an entirely different system. They are not counted in the 1 billion iOS devices sold. iOS devices sold are only counted since the iPhone was released in 2007. . .

iOS. . . Originally unveiled in 2007 for the iPhone, it has been extended to support other Apple devices such as the iPod Touch (September 2007), iPad (January 2010), iPad Mini (November 2012) and second-generation Apple TV onward (September 2010). As of June 2014, Apple's App Store contained more than 1.2 million iOS applications, 500,000 of which were optimized for iPad.[7][8] These apps have collectively been downloaded more than 60 billion times.[9] It had a 21% share of the smartphone mobile operating system units shipped in the fourth quarter of 2012, behind Google's Android.[10] By the middle of 2012, there were 410 million devices activated.[11] — Wikipedia Article on iOS

So much for your "13 year" distortion of facts. I told you I don't post anything which I cannot back up with FACTS. These are economic FACTS gleaned from statements and audited financial reports. . . unlike your cherry picked, irrelevant, un-authoritative, wishful thinking twaddle from know-nothing analysts who will write what ever the company who hires them wants to hear. Look up thread at Up Yours Marxists post #28 of the prognostication of IDC predictions that Windows Phone would have a 16.1% Smartphone market share would be THIS YEAR. . . and compare it to the ACTUAL 2.5% it really had this year, to know how accurate your ANAL=lysts really are. . . and give some thought about WHO pays the bills they send out for these fancy charts and reports. At least ABI was a lot closer to Windows Phone's market share than was IDC. . . but then Microsoft was probably not paying ABI.

But for you, just keep dancing your soft-shoe routine, adorno. The rest of us will keep laughing at you.

I again ask, why are you always so wrong?

[Swordmaker]

One more comment, just four months before the article you got your data from, Apple released the iPhone 5. Since then Apple has sold 388,000,000 iPhones. Another one of those little inconvenient facts you don’t like.