Posted on 11/19/2014 9:09:49 PM PST by wtd
GENEVA: The World Health Organization said Wednesday that 5,420 people had so far died of Ebola across eight countries, out of a total 15,145 cases of infection, since late December 2013.
On Friday, the UN health agency had reported 5,177 deaths and 14,413 cases.
The WHO believes that the number of deaths is likely far higher, given that the fatality rate in the current outbreak is known to be around 70 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at economictimes.indiatimes.com ...
I'm not "predicting" anything. I'm looking at how may new people get infected and stating that if nothing changes this is what will happen. Verifying it is easy. Go back and look at the article i just linked to. A month ago there were around 8000 cases. A few days ago there were over 15,000. And remember this is under reported. Doubling every month.
No I keep saying it will IF nothing changes. And it will...
It appears to be doubling every 6 weeks but that is based on OFFICIAL stats which vastly underestimate the true figure.
I have to disagree.
The folks doing those predictions, at least some of them, were using forecasting tools used every day in hospitals and research labs all over the world.
The variables such as intervention or the insertion of better meds are difficult to predict without a lot more info.
I think the more conservative estimates had it at 15k by Dec 1. Those appear to be accurate.
The other thing is that the CDC has stopped reporting in tests or monitoring. But we are starting to see more reports again.
But for the next couple of weeks the Ebola story will be #3 or 4 on the hit parade after Obama, Furgeson, and ISIL.
What are you disagreeing with me about in posts 3 and post 16 about the absurd predictions I mentioned?
Post 3 says “So far it looks like the predictions of some posters that ran up to 6 billion by June of 2016, may have been too high.” and post 16 says”100% of the earths population infected by December of next year.”
Thanks for the ping!
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