Posted on 10/10/2014 5:33:44 AM PDT by fruser1
Hi folks! Here are some Ebola numbers to play with:
According to WHO, there were 3053 cases back in 25 Aug and 8033 cases in 5 October.
http://www.who.int/csr/disease/ebola/situation-reports/en/
Using a simple exponential growth equation, you can calculate the rate of infection to get an average daily increase of 2.36%
Using the same equation with this rate you can find the time it takes to infect everyone on the planet - 621 days.
With f(n) = number infected at day n f(0) = day zero count (starting from Aug) EXP = exponential function LN = natural log function k = rate of increase
The equation I use is:
f(n) = f(0)*EXP(k*n)
First solve for k when f(n) = 8033 and f(0) = 3053. Then solve for n when f(n) = 7.15*19^9 (7.15 billion).
If you use Excel's Rate and present value type functions you can get a rate of 2.877% and an "end time" at 580 days.
Using this model presumes all get infected which won’t be the case. The simple, linear, exponential model is really more suited to the rate of exposure for a uniformly distributed population- numbers we don’t have and a situation that doesn't exist. Not everyone exposed necessarily gets infected. It’s not like everyone got smallpox, the spanish flu, or the plague. Also, the rate (percentage) will likely decrease over time as controls are implemented.
Of course, I could be wrong about that and we’re all screwed.
Have a nice day!
Enterovirus D68 And Influenza Far More Dangerous Than Ebola In U.S., Say Top Physicians
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3213252/posts
nothing to worry about... except for those pesky exponentials, just like the gooberment debt.
Actually, once a majority of those infected are the ones that run the essential services - power grids, water, medical, etc.. , then the infection / death rate would sky rocket.
I thought “k” was Planck’s constant!
>> According to WHO, there were 3053 cases back in 25 Aug and 8033 cases in 5 October.
Those numbers are true for a certain geographically-determined subset of the population (west Africa). The same numbers and rate of increase do not necessarily hold for every subset of the population.
Put another way, call your mathematical model a hypothesis and test it for other populations and see if it holds there.
For example, the united states. We have a total of one case now. Using your model, how many more *should* we have in 15, 30, 45 days? Do the math and see if your mathematical model holds for the North American subset of population.
By the way, actually working out theories with mathematics and epidemiology principles is a damn sight better than the unrestrained echo-chamber PANIC!!! jabber that has been occurring throughout the media (and to some extent right here in FR). I applaud your effort!
Thanks and FRegards
By the way,
If they took Duncan’s body in a yellow cab to bring back to his grieving “relatives” and Jesse Jackson, then we would have a decent start on the way to rates like Africa and we would not have to listen to Jesse Jackson for too much longer. Obama’s goal is to bring America down to third world standards, but he has not quite succeeded yet.
k is the Boltzmann constant. Planck is h.
Oh yeah...hc!
With the latest CDC ROI of 1.87, I came up with : Aug, 2016 - Infected: 6,816,734,096 Dead: 4,090,040,457 as the date of world without people.
You know that is just a cop out and comparing apples and oranges. If someone gets the enterovirus or influenza what is the death rate?
With enterovirus68 664 have been reported and they only test those who are very sick, there are 1000s of cases and 5 have died.
Between 5 and 20% of the population gets the flu every year and there are 54K deaths? And most of them don’t get hospitalized? Many, many of them are elderly or compromised individuals.
Your chances of getting Ebola in the U.S. right now are very, very low but if you get it you will require extreme medical intervention and even then you are 40 to 90% liable to die. And with the state of medical costs you will probably leave your family broke and sad if you haven’t infected them too.
I’ll take my chances with influenza or enterovirus68.
621 days - not too far off the date the usurping kenyan is SCHEDULED to leave office. Coincidence?
OMG. Really??
Do you inspect your oatmeal for mind control dust that would make you vote Democratic in School Board elections???
Jeez.
Well I’m not an 0bamabot, apparently as you are, so something must be working.
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