>> According to WHO, there were 3053 cases back in 25 Aug and 8033 cases in 5 October.
Those numbers are true for a certain geographically-determined subset of the population (west Africa). The same numbers and rate of increase do not necessarily hold for every subset of the population.
Put another way, call your mathematical model a hypothesis and test it for other populations and see if it holds there.
For example, the united states. We have a total of one case now. Using your model, how many more *should* we have in 15, 30, 45 days? Do the math and see if your mathematical model holds for the North American subset of population.
By the way, actually working out theories with mathematics and epidemiology principles is a damn sight better than the unrestrained echo-chamber PANIC!!! jabber that has been occurring throughout the media (and to some extent right here in FR). I applaud your effort!
Thanks and FRegards
By the way,
If they took Duncan’s body in a yellow cab to bring back to his grieving “relatives” and Jesse Jackson, then we would have a decent start on the way to rates like Africa and we would not have to listen to Jesse Jackson for too much longer. Obama’s goal is to bring America down to third world standards, but he has not quite succeeded yet.