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Ebola May Infect Earth's Entire Population by December 1, 2015; 50-75% Fatal
self | 2014-09-30 | UBSOTOS

Posted on 09/30/2014 7:40:47 PM PDT by UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

Here is the math:

Ebola had infected about 4000 known cases by 2014-09-16.

Incubation up to 21 days.

Rate of new infections during incubation period: R2.0 (i.e. roughly doubling)

Population of earth: ~7.2 billion

Number of doublings from initial ~4000 to ~8 billion: 21

21 X 21 days = 441 days from September 16, 2014 = December 1, 2015


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Health/Medicine; Science; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: apocalypse; ebola; zombieapocalypse
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To: Smokin' Joe
Keep in mind, too that more complex systems can break down with the removal of a few key components, and the ripple effect on transportation and supply, on grocery deliveries, fuel distribution, electrical power, etc. could be profound. That might kill more people than the virus.

Some Ebola is not going to keep guys from going to work and getting into their trucks with packed lunches to deliver gasoline and groceries, or going out to repair a power line after a storm, or at the refinery, or grainery.

101 posted on 10/02/2014 8:18:15 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: ansel12

Maybe that’s how your people lived, but not mine.


102 posted on 10/02/2014 9:04:11 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Smokin' Joe

Well little insult man, you said Americans in your idiotic claim.

Evidently you are clueless of American hygiene before antibiotics, and I don’t believe that your family was living more hygienically before the 1940s than they are today.


103 posted on 10/02/2014 9:36:30 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: Smokin' Joe; Brian Kopp DPM

>> “The problem with it is that the cold chain was broken and the samples which should have been preserved at -70 were not. Therefore, while positive results are indeed positive, the negative results are not reliable.” <<

.
Joe, while I often agree with you, this time I believe that your analysis is upside down.

Heat would create more positives, not more negatives.
.


104 posted on 10/02/2014 9:43:14 AM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: ansel12

Off your dose today?
.


105 posted on 10/02/2014 9:44:50 AM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: editor-surveyor

Childish insults? You don’t have any input on the topic or on pre antibiotic hygiene in America?


106 posted on 10/02/2014 9:47:04 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: ansel12

“ansel12’s America?”


107 posted on 10/02/2014 9:52:31 AM PDT by editor-surveyor (Freepers: Not as smart as I'd hoped they'd be)
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To: editor-surveyor

No, heat breaks the virus down, cold preserves it.


108 posted on 10/02/2014 9:54:57 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: editor-surveyor

Your posts aren’t making any sense.

Try to focus.


109 posted on 10/02/2014 9:58:55 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: ansel12
I said since antibiotics Americans have become more lax in their hygienic habits. And they have.

They wear the little plastic food service gloves and pick their noses with them on.

They don't wash their hands after using the toilet.

They count on antibiotics to save them from infections.

Before antibiotics, my family was keenly aware of the potential for lethal infections, and promptly washed wounds, no matter how small.

Now, people are complacent because they think they can go to the doctor and get a pill.

They send their children to school sick.

They go to work sick, they do things which would not have been tolerated before antibiotics.

110 posted on 10/02/2014 10:01:32 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Smokin' Joe
Since antibiotics, we have become far more lax in hygiene as a population

Have you dropped that claim, or will you try to explain it?

111 posted on 10/02/2014 10:02:30 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: ansel12

Talk to any nurse at a major hospital about hygiene.

I was in the OB ward having had major surgery. Once I was ambulatory I ventured into the bathroom. What greeted me behind the door, when I closed it, were droplets of what was clearly ‘bodily fluids’ along the bottom of the back of the door. The room had just been ‘cleaned’ by the cleaning lady not 15 minutes before and I hadn’t been in the bathroom during my stay and neither had any of my visitors.


112 posted on 10/02/2014 10:05:23 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: ansel12
here's a link
113 posted on 10/02/2014 10:11:39 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Smokin' Joe

Before antibiotics, people didn’t bathe frequently, nor change clothes so frequently and wash them with such modern machines, nor refrigerate food so thoroughly, huge numbers of households didn’t have indoor toilets, you think hand washing was more frequent than today? Many houses didn’t even have indoor water, much less vast amounts of hot flowing water and soap dispensers built into the sink.

Today we start the day with a shower in a pristine bathroom, and eat in a pristine kitchen with perfect refrigeration and wouldn’t dream of wearing our clothes a second day, and this fastidiousness reaches throughout our society.

Do you really think that your household and family members life is less hygienic than your ancestors of 1900 and the 1930s?

People would freak out at the cootie factor and disease risk if you tried to duplicate conditions of the pre 1940s America hygiene of the average American.


114 posted on 10/02/2014 10:12:44 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: Black Agnes

What does that have to do with cleaning ladies of 1900 america?


115 posted on 10/02/2014 10:14:00 AM PDT by ansel12
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide
Ebola May Infect Earth's Entire Population by December 1, 2015; 50-75% Fatal

Incorrect.

Ebola WILL infect 375% of the world population by Jun 13, 2014, and it is 1,388,280% fatal.

116 posted on 10/02/2014 10:14:24 AM PDT by Lazamataz (First we beat the Soviet Union. Then we became them.)
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To: ansel12

In 1900, prior to antibiotics, such sloth could easily result in a ‘preventable in 2010 with antibiotics’ death.

I’ve got a copy of one of the nursing textbooks my great aunt used when she was in nursing school in 1932. There are several whole CHAPTERS on hygiene, cleaning and sterility techniques to be used with patients particularly those post surgery.

I have been in the hospital with 3 major surgeries in the past 10 years and have NEVER seen one of the nurses practice those techniques with me.

I’ll give an example. The nurses did rounds. Going from room to room. At no time did they avail themselves of the sinks in my room to wash their hands in spite of the fact that there was antimicrobial soap and cleanser at both of those. There are no sinks in the hall. You’re not going to convince me she went from each room on that loooong hall of patients back to the bathroom behind the nurses station to wash her hands between each patient.


117 posted on 10/02/2014 10:20:50 AM PDT by Black Agnes
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To: UnbelievingScumOnTheOtherSide

Oh My!

I am going to ask my boss for the afternoon off.


118 posted on 10/02/2014 10:22:54 AM PDT by infool7 (The ugly truth is just a big lie.)
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To: ansel12
Today we start the day with a shower in a pristine bathroom, and eat in a pristine kitchen with perfect refrigeration and wouldn’t dream of wearing our clothes a second day, and this fastidiousness reaches throughout our society.

Translation: today we wash in the house where we also crap.

We eat in a kitchen that is shiny (but has gunk in the cracks). We pull our food out of the refrigerator where the hamburger we cooked last night leaked. And if you're so clean, what's wrong with wearing your clothes another day?

Reality: Most people have something growing in their refrigerator.

They keep a cat who also craps in the house albeit in a box (all the family cats lived in the barn). Every time you flush a toilet, you create an aerosol containing wee bits of what you flushed.

My great grandmother had running water and septic, we washed daily, just not as conveniently. The icebox worked fine until the refrigerator came along, and the food was fresh from the garden, eggs straight from the henhouse, fish from the river.

We cleaned or butchered or canned our own, smoked the meat when appropriate and knew what we had.

It didn't kill any of us, and the average age of my grandparents when they left this mortal coil was 89 1/2 years old. My parents are still alive. After my great uncle died of an infection at the ripe old age of 10, (I'm a great grandpa now), the family was fastidious about cleanliness.

No one who has grown up with being able to go to a doctor and get some pills and be cured will have the same sense of what ordinary pathogens can do.

YMMV

119 posted on 10/02/2014 10:28:03 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe (How often God must weep at humans' folly. Stand fast. God knows what He is doing.)
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To: Black Agnes

First, this has nothing to do with average American hygiene in 1900, and second, the medical training books are still telling professional how to maintain cleanliness in hospitals, regardless of your personal anecdotes.

You are supporting the claim “”Since antibiotics, we have become far more lax in hygiene as a population””?

You really want to put your home and your next door neighbor’s home and kids lined up next to a 1900 household and kids, and show that they were more fastidious in their hygiene than modern Americans and moms?

On most threads when modern America’s obsession with hygiene comes up, we think it is too obsessive, and neurotic even, and especially the females.


120 posted on 10/02/2014 10:34:12 AM PDT by ansel12
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