Don't worry folks; Putin is not invading Kiev.

Vanity | Dangus

[dangus]

"If I want to, I could invade Kiev in two weeks, " says Putin. And with that deliberately misinterpreted sentence, the Western powers that be completely lose their mind.

A brief lesson in symbolic logic to explain what Putin meant:

p-> q (If I want to, I could invade Kiev in two weeks,)

~q (Putin is not invading Kiev in two weeks.)

therefore, ~p (Putin doesn't want to.)

Putin was explicitly saying that he has no interest in invading Kiev. And that's because he knows it's not in his political best interest.

When Russia annexed Crimea, although I didn't create a vanity thread like this one, I explained many times all over FR that Putin would not invade Kiev. Crimea was a special circumstance for several reasons:

1. Crimea had been part of Russia for centuries, even for those centuries when the Ukraine was a separate nation.

2. Crimeans don't speak Ukrainian, and have come under severe discrimination against their native languages.

3. Crimea only seceded from Russia and joined Ukraine under pledges from Ukraine that it would be autonomous.

4. Way back in 1993, Crimeans voted overwhelmingly to maintain Russian citizenship, demonstrating that this year's vote was no neo-Soviet fix.

5. Kiev responded to that vote by unilaterally revoking Crimea's autonomy, and has essentially held Crimea as occupied territory ever since.

Lots of Western commenters insist Russia isn't a democracy. While that's the sort of judgment certain to contentious and subjective, even if we presume it isn't a democracy, we should all agree that at least the veneer of democracy is very important to Russia. Seizing a large population against their will and extending to them the veneer of democracy means keeping up the appearances would be all the more difficult.

Donetsk and Luhansk (the "Donbas") are a crisis come home to roost for Putin, not an opportunity. The Donbas was almost unpopulated until the late 19th century, by a Welsh businessman saw the potential for exploiting its natural resources. Already part of Russia, It was then populated almost exclusively by Russians who not immigrating, but simply moving within a nation, as if from Pennsylvania to New Jersey. They maintained close familial and business ties with Russia, and ended up in a separate country only by a fluke of history.

Reasonable people can have many debates as to whether Putin intends to annex the Donbas, establish 2 more de-facto micronations (see "Transnistria" or "South Ossetia") or wishes they'd just go away. But given these close ties, and the use of quasi-legal militias throughout the Caucuses during Putin's various conflicts with Muslims, the entanglement with Russia and the Donbas is more a sign of Putin's weakness than his imperialism. To completely disavow the Russians in Ukraine would expose that he has little operational control over his own territory; to directly interecede would create a must-win situation that is much more difficult to win than he'd like to admit.

So, Putin plays this awkward game of tease, allowing just enough support in the Donbas to assess if a war of attrition is possible, but not enough to own the crisis. Key to this game is the claim that the ethnic Russians want nothing to do with Kiev. For fans of comparing Putin to Hitler, taking the Donbas would be like taking the Sudenland (making Crimea the equivalent of Saar); invading Kiev would be like invading England. Even if we presume Putin is as evil as Hitler, we can't presume he has learned nothing from Hitler's failure.

And I would like to remind those fans that by the time Hitler invaded Austria, the following events had already taken place: The bombing of the Reichstag... the Night of Long Knives, wherein Hitler had all his intraparty moderates murdered... Kristallnacht... the establishment of the Dachau death camps... the Enabling Act, making Hitler dictator... the prohibition of labor unions and opposition parties...

We SHOULD have foreseen Hitler's plans because HItler published and espoused his plans and committed atrocity after atrocity. Arresting a bunch of naked women for desecrating a cathedral... and then releasing them... is not the same as establishing death camps for Jews, alcoholics, homeless, unemployed, Romani and Catholic priests. And we shouldn't respond as if it were.

[molson209]

I think Russia’s Military is getting their Butts kicked

[Graewoulf]

Now that Obama has removed the US Marines and the US Army, (Obamacode: “boots on the ground”), from the Russian and Militant Muslim Theaters of War, both Russia and the Militant Muslims know that they are assured of quickly obtaining ground control of the Eastern Mediterranean.

Both the Russians and the Militant Muslims know that their rapid ground advances will end once the Impeachment Proceedings begin on Obama.

Russia needs to have land and Naval control of the north shore of the Black Sea and western Turkey in order to have unfettered access from its only warm water Naval port in Crimea to the Mediterranean Sea.

With the Militant Muslims, (al Qadea, al Sharia, Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, ISIS, etc., etc., etc.), controlling the land transport of much of the World’s Oil, and Russia’s Navy controlling the Eastern Mediterranean shipment of Oil, Israel would have no choice but to become a neutral Nation - - - the “Switzerland” of the Middle East.

The Democrat control of the US Senate and Administration, has resulted in a strategy of Domestic Financial weakness, betrayal to America’s Allies, and exponentially emboldened Military planners in Russia and the Muslim Militant community.

Will Speaker “Blank Check” Boehner continue to financially support the Obama-Reid-Jarrett Regime Strategy of ceding control of the Eastern Mediteranian/Middle East to the Russians and Militant Muslims?

[dangus]

>> Russia needs to have land and Naval control of the north shore of the Black Sea and western Turkey in order to have unfettered access from its only warm water Naval port in Crimea to the Mediterranean Sea. <<

True. But they already had Sevastopol. And the Crimean War (also known as World War Zero) gave Russia guaranteed access to Constantinople’s Bosphorus Straits.

>> Both the Russians and the Militant Muslims know that their rapid ground advances will end once the Impeachment Proceedings begin on Obama. <<

LOL! Forget the absurd notion that the Republicans in the Senate grow a spine (they can’t even bring charges against Eric Holder!!!!) your suggestion also requires a huge portion of Senate Democrats to join in with a 2/3rds vote. And then what? President Biden?

And hey, don’t forget: WE’RE the ones that created ISIS. Without Russia’s intervention in Syria, ISIS would already be in Damascus, Alleppo and probably Beirut.

[ansel12]

What does that mean, that Obama pulled the Army and Marines out of the “Russian theatre of war”?

[KC_Lion]

If we must give Hitler all of the Ruhr if we wish to avoid war We Must give Putin the Crimea if we wish to avoid war.

Putin only wants to protect the German Speaking Minorities in the Sudetenland Russian speaking minorities in Donbass.

[trapped_in_LA]

but but but ... Putin is the anti-Christ and Hitler all rolled into one! This can’t be true because all the truth telling liberal MSM have told me how bad a person Putin is and how he hates everything Americans love like homosexuality, the religion of peace, feminists, etc. So this can’t be true, I’ll just close my eyes, plug my ears and say LALALALA until you’ve been punished by the righteous wrath of neo-cons trying to get us into a war with Russia! /S

[Rockpile]

Sudetenland

Well written piece. There might also be pipeline routes south to the Black Sea involved.

[bert]

For the record..... Putin already has Crimea and it is not really ours to give.

My theory has always been that the Putin gambit in Ukraine is a win win campaign. When he ceases the aggressive action the EU and Obama will crow victory and Putin will be smiling over lunch in Sevastopol

[Georgia Girl 2]

Putey does not have the money to play no limit hold em. He’s already heavy into his egg money just trying to hold onto the Crimea. He also desperately wants to remain in the G8 and be a player on the Western stage. He’s not going to try to take Kiev.

[Graewoulf]

The current Russian Theater of War includes Ukraine, and the Black Sea south through Syria.

Sailors sail and troops have boots.

“- - - There is no US Military solution in Ukraine. - - - “ (B. Hussein Obama)

” - - - There will be no US boots on the ground in Ukraine. - - - “ (B. Hussein Obama)

[alexander_busek]

And that's because he knows it's not currently in his political best interest.

There, fixed it for you!

Regards,

[dangus]

There certainly are pipelines in the Ukraine, but there are also pipelines through Minsk and the Baltics. And its much easier to expand throughput through Minsk or the Baltics than seize operational control over the largest nation entirely in Europe.

[dangus]

And you foresee that situation changing within his political career?

[TexasRepublic]

Russia is an imperialist nation and has been for the past 1,000 years. It spans nine time zones and has more land than any other country on earth. Their neighbors have a good reason to be afraid of the hungry Bear.

Poor little Russians, they talk as if everyone is picking on them! Really, all they want is one more buffer state to isolate them from those nasty Baltic states. /sarcasm

[ansel12]

Obama pulled troops out of Ukraine and withdrew from the Russian theatre of war?

[alexander_busek]

And you foresee that situation changing within his political career?

I do not foresee anything, since I am not a fortune-teller with a crystal ball.

I am merely saying that Putin's outrageous boast about being able to "take" Kyiv "if he wanted to" should in no way, shape, or form be considered a reliable reassurance about what might happen in the future.

Regards,

[1rudeboy]

Poor little Russians, they talk as if everyone is picking on them! Really, all they want is one more buffer state to isolate them from those nasty Baltic states. /sarcasm

All these tiny countries, picking on the Russians. I guess to be conservative on FR means that you must rush here to tell the rest of us that Putin means no harm.

[Alter Kaker]

Good post, however I disagree with you in some key areas.

p-> q (If I want to, I could invade Kiev in two weeks,) ~q (Putin is not invading Kiev in two weeks.) therefore, ~p (Putin doesn't want to.)

Correct. But since Putin has proven incapable of stopping the continuing escalation of the conflict, what's to say that in two weeks he doesn't change his mind and decide that occupation is his only option for "resolving" the crisis? How is he going to be able to ratchet down the situation, given that his actions to date have accomplished the two things least in Russia's interest: strengthening NATO and pushing Ukraine decisively into the arms of the West?

If he leaves the government of Ukraine intact, it will be aggressively anti-Russian and on his doorstep. That's not in Russia's interest -- and that specter is the whole reason Russia intervened in Ukrainian internal affairs to begin with.

Yes Putin has to be concerned with Russian domestic opinion, but just as important is the Russian sense that it is dangerous to have strong enemies on its borders. Putin is letting himself get sucked into Ukraine to avoid that possibility, but the more he does, the more real it gets.

[gdani]

Putin was explicitly saying that he has no interest in invading Kiev. And that's because he knows it's not in his political best interest.

You assume Putin acts rationally. I'm not so sure he does, given everything else he does that is not in his best political interest.