Ebola Surveillance Thread

Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

[Shelayne]

Exactly.

[Shelayne]

Yes, especially when taken with the “Ebola scan” (i.e. the laser thermometer thingy) they were using in West African airports. That is one of the scariest things to me. Think of how many asymptomatic (at the time) passengers could possibly have been “cleared” to fly out because they hadn’t spiked a fever yet.

[PA Engineer]

Of the 68 that were tested, with reason, in this country so far there are statistically bound to be some false negatives.

That is one of the troubling things in this outbreak. Not just in the western countries, but specifically in Nigeria. They keep reporting the results are negative and yet there does not seem to be guidance on this.

(i) False-negative RT-PCR results are likely to occur for patients with severe viral hemorrhagic fevers, especially in the acute phase of the disease where a rapid confirmation is required. Their plasma may contain large amounts of RT-PCR inhibitors, probably resulting from the decay of tissue. These inhibitors can be detected by control reactions with spiked samples (low copy numbers of control RNA, 1 log10 above detection limit of the PCR) (5). Control reactions to detect inhibitors of RT-PCR are mandatory for a safe diagnosis for patients with suspected VHF.

I still think Nigeria is going to be the "Index" country to western nations, in this pandemic. I haven't heard the word used yet to describe it, but it is indeed a pandemic now.

From WHO's daily report: Between 17 and 18 August 2014, a total of 221 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 106 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.

That jump from yesterday's report is indicative of a pandemic and by WHO's own admission now, these numbers are an undercount.

I don't think it is going to be the index cases in different countries that are going to cause a worsening, but the primary and secondary contacts. I blame the CDC for this. Their only efforts have been to prevent a panic by downplaying the risk. A rational and specifically non-political action on their part should have been to educate, close the boarders as necessary and provide guidance in preparation.

If anyone is interested, I found a good supplier in safety wear. I believe it might be wise to get it now before it is unavailable.

[Black Agnes]

If Patrick Sawyer had taken a flight just 6hrs earlier he could easily have been on a Lagos to Houston or Atlanta direct flight when he crashed out. With a further 6 hours to go or more before the flight landed.

Imagine being in the row in front of him.

[Black Agnes]

Given the financial stakes in this epidemic I fully expect the countries involved to lie like rugs as long as they can if these false positives are turning into real positives and they’re having secondary exposures (and tertiary ones!) besides. While they continue with the fantasy that they can track all the people involved and things are ‘under control’ so as not to risk the economic collapse an admission of an outbreak would bring. See Liberia and Sierra Leone for what happens with that.

It’ll be a giant game of charades.

frmail me that link to the protective gear. Might be something to bookmark, just in case.

[Shelayne]

If anyone is interested, I found a good supplier in safety wear. I believe it might be wise to get it now before it is unavailable.

I hate to even go there, but... OK, who is your supplier?

[Shelayne]

I shudder to think about that. I cannot even imagine.

[petitfour]

I don’t know if you posted this yet or if you saw that the New Mexico patient has tested negative. The illness was something else they have confirmed. I just saw this at abqjournal.com

[Black Agnes]

Read the link PA Engineer posted about false negatives with this particular family of viruses.

With 68 people here having all been suspected cases and having subsequently tested negative, odds are there was one false negative in the bunch. We will certainly hope NOT but the next 2 or 3 weeks will tell.

There is a case in Ireland right now (Dublin) where someone is suspected of having died of ebola. There was also a suspected case there last week that tested negative and was let go. Lots of people are wondering if this was the same guy and that negative was a false one.

http://fluboard.rhizalabs.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=12101

[Black Agnes]

http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=5725&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=1380&sid=95b57abf0f1a326e3c94b106483abc54

Here too is speculation.

[PA Engineer]

I hate to even go there, but... OK, who is your supplier?

Please keep the link handy and pull the trigger if you become uncomfortable with the news. C&H Distribution

I posted the Tyvek link. All the other supplies are there from aprons to N100 masks. They have a search function at the top of the page for other items.

I just ordered up for our home and my Wife's practice. We both listened to the CDC teleconference and became angry with the politicalization of yet another government agency. We are only listening to the Doctors Without Boarders now.

They are in the trenches even though I have been angry within them in the past over their anti-Israel narrative.

[Black Agnes]

WRT Ebola, irrespective of their abhorrent politics sometimes, MSF is the only group I trust at this point.

[petitfour]

I think the Albuquerque patient was held as a just in case the test was wrong kind of thing. So this was the three day test and not the on the spot testing. I would hope that all of the folks they have tested in the US were held for several days to make sure they did not have false negative results. But we live in crazy times.

[Shelayne]

Thank you. I have it bookmarked just in case....

[Shelayne]

Just saw this:
http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Sacramento-Ebola-tests-come-back-negative-5704866.php?

Sacramento test came back negative.

[Cold Heat]

Well......That news is going to be disappointing to some...

[PA Engineer]

Well......That news is going to be disappointing to some...

Who? Why would you post what you just did?

Your understanding of the situation is somewhat out of date.

That alone should tell you something...The initial outbreak being 12 cases per day, has only doubled to 23.5 cases in what is now months...

You posted that on the 17th. The initial outbreak was one in December.

I think people would feel relieved, especially those in the medical profession.

[Shelayne]

Yikes. Besides a terrorist or some freaky lefty, who would want Ebola in the US?

I am relieved. I don’t want that horrible virus anywhere or inflicted on anyone. I can’t imagine the terror those poor people in Africa are going through. It is heartbreaking.

[Cold Heat]

I have not changed my position on that.

I still see a tapering of the spread of new cases. It’s a signal that the outbreak is under a tenuous but statistical control.

Previous outbreaks are pretty useless to use as a guide as they did not reach densely populated areas with transportation.

Unless the bugger jumps to the East and Central continent, or flares up in another backward population, I don’t see it getting any more dangerous than it is today, although it has recently exceeded my estimates of total dead, which was 1200+, it’s speed of spread (new cases) has slowed to closer match the expected death rates of 60-70% which to me indicates that the wild spread has moderated a lot.

[Cold Heat]

You posted that on the 17th. The initial outbreak was one in December

Actually I was commenting on those numbers, posted by lafroste. You might want to read the entire post. Those numbers were his calculations from july of this year. So the time span was July to August.

If you do a similar calc from August to September, when we get there....

We can discuss it then..and we will have something to talk about.