Of the 68 that were tested, with reason, in this country so far there are statistically bound to be some false negatives.
That is one of the troubling things in this outbreak. Not just in the western countries, but specifically in Nigeria. They keep reporting the results are negative and yet there does not seem to be guidance on this.
(i) False-negative RT-PCR results are likely to occur for patients with severe viral hemorrhagic fevers, especially in the acute phase of the disease where a rapid confirmation is required. Their plasma may contain large amounts of RT-PCR inhibitors, probably resulting from the decay of tissue. These inhibitors can be detected by control reactions with spiked samples (low copy numbers of control RNA, 1 log10 above detection limit of the PCR) (5). Control reactions to detect inhibitors of RT-PCR are mandatory for a safe diagnosis for patients with suspected VHF.
I still think Nigeria is going to be the "Index" country to western nations, in this pandemic. I haven't heard the word used yet to describe it, but it is indeed a pandemic now.
From
WHO's daily report:
Between 17 and 18 August 2014, a total of 221 new cases of Ebola virus disease (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) as well as 106 deaths were reported from Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone.
That jump from yesterday's report is indicative of a pandemic and by WHO's own admission now, these numbers are an undercount.
I don't think it is going to be the index cases in different countries that are going to cause a worsening, but the primary and secondary contacts. I blame the CDC for this. Their only efforts have been to prevent a panic by downplaying the risk. A rational and specifically non-political action on their part should have been to educate, close the boarders as necessary and provide guidance in preparation.
If anyone is interested, I found a good supplier in safety wear. I believe it might be wise to get it now before it is unavailable.
Given the financial stakes in this epidemic I fully expect the countries involved to lie like rugs as long as they can if these false positives are turning into real positives and they’re having secondary exposures (and tertiary ones!) besides. While they continue with the fantasy that they can track all the people involved and things are ‘under control’ so as not to risk the economic collapse an admission of an outbreak would bring. See Liberia and Sierra Leone for what happens with that.
It’ll be a giant game of charades.
frmail me that link to the protective gear. Might be something to bookmark, just in case.