Posted on 08/30/2013 8:17:02 AM PDT by Ernest_at_the_Beach
From time to time various experts come up with predictions regarding the end of Moore’s law, economical and technological viability to double the number of transistors per chip every two years. Some companies believe that economical efficiencies of Moore’s law are going to drastically decrease on 20nm node. But a DARPA expert believes that the law will lose its feasibility in 2020 – 2022, or at 5nm or 7nm nodes.
(Excerpt) Read more at xbitlabs.com ...
One lesson I've learned about technology is that you can't predict the future, and if you try, you will almost always underpredict.
/johnny
They said the same thing when the process went down under a micron...........
It should be called Moore’s conjecture, not Moore’s law.
Is that the date range when Skynet becomes self-aware?
When we all become the slobs like in the movie Wall-E and it doesn’t matter anymore. We won’t know how it works machine will make machines.
One lesson I've learned about technology is that you can't predict the future, and if you try, you will almost always underpredict.
Oh, I dunno. I'd guess it's probably safe to predict there'll be lots of new products, and the witless hype will be louder than ever.
Michael Moore?
Able to double his weight every two years?
I’ve considered it more a viable goal than a law. It works until it doesn’t.
CA....
FWIW, here’s the explanation in the opening paragraph of the Wikipedia entry for it:
“Moore’s law is the observation that, over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years. The period often quoted as “18 months” is due to Intel executive David House, who predicted that period for a doubling in chip performance (being a combination of the effect of more transistors and their being faster).[1]”
Thanks Ernest.
[snip] Some companies believe that economical efficiencies of Moore’s law are going to drastically decrease on 20nm node. But a DARPA expert believes that the law will lose its feasibility in 2020-2022, or at 5nm or 7nm nodes. [/snip]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/22_nanometer
[snip] The ITRS 2006 Front End Process Update indicates that equivalent physical oxide thickness will not scale below 0.5 nm (about twice the diameter of a silicon atom), which is the expected value at the 22 nm node. This is an indication that CMOS scaling in this area has reached a wall at this point, possibly disturbing Moore’s law. [/snip]
http://www.extremetech.com/computing/97469-is-14nm-the-end-of-the-road-for-silicon-lithography
[snip] In 1985, 1 micron — 1,000nm — was the state of the art, and was used by the Intel 80386 processor. By 2004, the micron scale had been abandoned and 90nm processors like the Winchester AMD 64 and Prescott Pentium 4 were the norm... Most current digital devices use processors, sensors, and memory chips based on 45 and 60nm processes because very few silicon foundries — except for Intel — have managed to make the jump to 32nm, let alone 22nm. The fact is, the standard process of arranging components on a silicon wafer using a top-down, layer-by-layer approach, has hit a wall. Even atomic layer deposition, the process that will take us to 22nm, 16-and-14nm, and introduce FinFET “3D” transistors, can go no further... In the case of the 22nm chips — a process that only Intel has mastered and will come to market with Ivy Bridge — the high-x dielectric layer is just 0.5nm thick; just two or three atoms! [/snip]
whoops, that de-HTMLing should have been “the high-K dielectric”
Intel launches Haswell desktop processors
(higher freq graphics, slightly better specs, apparently cheaper?)
By Anthony Shvets
Sunday September 1, 2013 16:53
http://www.cpu-world.com/news_2013/2013090101_Intel_launches_Haswell_desktop_processors.html
Ivy Bridge-E Processors Expected To Be Unveiled At IDF 2013
By Adnan Farooqui on 09/02/2013
http://www.ubergizmo.com/2013/09/ivy-bridge-e-processors-expected-to-be-unveiled-at-idf-2013/
[snip] The Ivy Bridge-E based 6-core 3.6Ghz Core i7-4960X, 3.4GHz Core i7-4930K and quadcore 3.7GHz Core i7-4820K are rumored to be released. These three processors will reportedly adopt the LGA 2011 socket and will support the X79 chipset, PCI-Express Gen 3.0 and DDR3 memory. [/snip]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ivy_Bridge_(microarchitecture)
Ivy Bridge is the codename for a line of processors based on the 22 nm manufacturing process developed by Intel’s Israel team. The name is also applied more broadly to the 22 nm die shrink of the Sandy Bridge microarchitecture based on tri-gate (”3D”) transistors, which is also used in the Xeon and Core i7 Ivy Bridge-EX, Ivy Bridge-EP and Ivy Bridge-E microprocessors released in 2013. Ivy Bridge processors are backwards-compatible with the Sandy Bridge platform, but might require a firmware update (vendor specific).[1] In 2011 Intel released 7-series Panther Point chipsets with integrated USB 3.0 to complement Ivy Bridge.[2]
Volume production of Ivy Bridge chips began in the third quarter of 2011.[3] Quad-core and dual-core-mobile models launched on April 29, 2012 and May 31, 2012 respectively.[4] Core i3 desktop processors, as well as the first 22 nm Pentium, were announced and available the first week of September, 2012
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