Ohio (polling madness ?)

[se_ohio_young_conservative]

Fox News just flashed a poll that showed Obama up 9 points in Ohio. I can assure you that Obama is not up 9 points in this state. Maybe 2 or 3 points.

But that brings me to a bigger question

Why are the state polls not matching up with the national polls that show it about tied ?

[OrioleFan]

That poll oversampled DemocRATs. If it weren’t for Cleveland, Obama would be toast in Ohio.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

That remains to be seen, doesn't it?

[Political Junkie Too]

Interestingly, my analysis of Rasmussen state-by-state polls currently has the election tied at 269-269. Many of the states in my model are still using 2008 election results, because Rasmussen hasn't polled them yet. This week's polls have not flipped any states, just reinforced 2008 results.

Arizona, for instance is still way out of the margin of error in favor of Romney.

North Carolina, on the other hand, was oustide of the margin of error in 2008, but today's Rasmussen poll puts it at only a few points apart, which is huge from a probability perspective.

So, currently even though I show it deterministically tied in the electoral college, Romney's probability of winning is still stuck between 25%-30%.

I need more Rasmussen polls. He has only put out about 2 or 3 state polls in the last 3 weeks.

-PJ

[JPG]

Doh! Thanks, I meant NC but my fingers refused to type correctly.

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

a few things;

1. Look at sample and determine the who/what of it. Should be clear to interpret WTH it really says.

2. Without a "horse race" no one will watch any of the LSM channels, so they need to keep the storyline going.

3. The true pollsters will start to break soon enough, so watch for them, but take it all with a grain of salt. A lot of the polling polls (?) only rate them on their "last poll before the election" for accuracy. Too many alternate web sites are keeping them in check, so the ones that want to remain as unpartisan as possible, will be the first to break with more accurate polls. Until then, even the outer lying polls are factored into RCP and 538, etc. Along with Adult Voters (least accurate) Registered Voters (semi accurate for long term, large scale shifts and Likely Voters, more accurate as long as sample size and skew are factored in.

M2C.

[Ingtar]

Why are the state polls not matching up with the national polls that show it about tied?

Think of it as a baseball game with 50 innings where the score on each inning is about 15-0 and the number of innings each candidate is ahead in is even.

[Prospero]

The polls cited by FoxNews, on their Special Report and, perhaps more importantly, on their very biased and somewhat insulting radio digests are totally out of sync with reality. They are clearly flawed but, also more importantly, irrelevant at this point.

Professional campaigners pay for rolling polls and they should pay careful attention to those to know the truth. Either campaigns are in touch with the situation, the vectors and movements, or they are not. It does no good for the rest of us to worry about it. If a campaign isn't running scared regardless of what the polls say, good or bad, it's not being run right.

[Donnafrflorida]

i just received a aflcio poll. i answered every single question WRONG.
race party age income voting record.

[Donnafrflorida]

i just received a aflcio poll. i answered every single question WRONG.
race party age income voting record.

[Donnafrflorida]

i just received a aflcio poll. i answered every single question WRONG.
race party age income voting record.

[GeorgeWashingtonsGhost]

We’re not allowed to use profanity against 0bama. We’re just going to allow him to destroy our country because we feared being called ‘racist’. That’s going to read funny is the history books, but.. It happened.

[citizen]

Polls of all adults will be better for obomo....polls of registered voters will move in Romney’s direction....polls of likely voters will yield the most accurate results and will generally be a better indication of Romney’s real support. Rassmussen polls likely voters, his polls are good.

[pallis]

Showing a little behind in the polls is good for Romney’s fund raising.