New paper suggests sun may be headed for a Maunder minimum (Global Cooling )

watts up with that? ^ | December 2, 2011 | Anthony Watts

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Just published in GRL, a new paper by Lockwood et al that suggests the sun may be headed for a Maunder type minimum.:

The persistence of solar activity indicators and the descent of the Sun into Maunder Minimum conditions

Key Points

• Can we predict the onset of the next grand solar minimum
• Grand minima can be predicted using some solar indices
• The design and operation of systems influenced by space climate can be optimised

Abstract:

The recent low and prolonged minimum of the solar cycle, along with the slow growth in activity of the new cycle, has led to suggestions that the Sun is entering a Grand Solar Minimum (GSMi), potentially as deep as the Maunder Minimum (MM). This raises questions about the persistence and predictability of solar activity. We study the autocorrelation functions and predictability R²_L(t) of solar indices, particularly group sunspot number R_G and heliospheric modulation potential Φ for which we have data during the descent into the MM. For R_G and Φ, R²_L(t) > 0.5 for times into the future of t ≈ 4 and ≈ 3 solar cycles, respectively: sufficient to allow prediction of a GSMi onset. The lower predictability of sunspot number R_Z is discussed. The current declines in peak and mean R_G are the largest since the onset of the MM and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a GSMi.

[Rocky]

Great graphic.

And the web site referenced on the graphic is very informative:

http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/ice_ages.html

Thanks for posting that.

[21twelve]

Some research indicates that the ice ages happened VERY quickly - like 20 years or less to have much colder and extreme weather. I’ll try to look into that tomorrow.

But I have said from years and years ago - a REAL ice age (not this Maunder Minimum minor crap) is past due if you look at the Earth’s cycles. And it will be BAD. (Hint, Civilization as we know it arose AFTER the last ice age.)

[JRandomFreeper]

For some unknown reason... K.

LOL!

Sorry about the house. But seriously, who knows how to bias a 6146 anymore? And knows or cares about bias currents?

God did a great thing with solid state.

But I can't do squat without a little help from the ionosphere. And that requires sunspots.

I feel nekked without a nice thick ionospheric blanket pulled up around me.

Or as the popular song (many years ago, put it) Baby, it's cold outside.

/johnny

[AlexW]

Yes, waiting for the next sunspot max was like waiting for Christmas, but a damn long wait :(

During the minimums, it was like being trapped in the doldrums.

[Jack Hydrazine]

Warm globally, cool locally!

[Marine_Uncle]

RE: "And it will be BAD. (Hint, Civilization as we know it arose AFTER the last ice age.)"
Please do not "look into it tomorrow for my sake". I could have written about the same as you had. My statement to Ernie, was just kidding around. This is serious stuff. And I have read much over the past fifty years on the subject in essence. You did not exaggerate in the least.

[21twelve]

No - for my own sake! And my poor memory was correct - 20 years for a full-blown ice age based on some Greenland ice core data. I saw the headline from some newspaper that said 6-months - but it was the Guardian or something and didn’t click on it.

Funny though, one article I quickly scanned was saying how we’ll just move to where it is warm and live and grow food there like it was no problem. Not even taking into the political ramifications (Mexican drug cartels shooting the Canadian and American refuges as they swarm the border heading south) - but most of the water for the crops will be locked in the ice - world wide drought conditions.

(Great - not only do I have to buy more long underwear - but have to make yet ANOTHER run to Costco for more bottled water.)

[zot]

That would have been about the beginning of the minimum.

Ummm. actually.... that would be less than accurate. It started about 1627. It just took that long to get the locals (people on earth) to notice.

Yes, it probably began earlier. By 1642 it was cold enough to freeze Boston Harbor.

[Marine_Uncle]

It taint going to be a nice time that is for sure. Talk about de-population, both human as well as animal. All those that preach about people dying off because of what they claim would be hot conditions. The clowns as your acutely aware, have it ass backward. When those extended super cold winters start to envelope the northern and southern latitudes where one experiences -80 plus for months on end, few things are going to survive if they cannot migrate. Then if it goes into the -100 range. Call it quits. With drastic changes within the atmospheric physics during those times,during the winter months one could see even lower temperature ranges come to be.
Depending on what books one might have read over time, one may have read about dangerously cold temperatures gradients that extend into the near equatorial belt.
Not a pretty picture at all. We of course would be far better if there where extended global warming. In any case. I'm glad to see so many people now picking up on the AGW scam.

[Paul Pierett]

Told you so, but not quite the minimum they expect.

nationalforestlawblog.com

Paul Pierett