The non-military wanted to surrender before the bomb. They were just looking for a way to do it and save face (they had actually contacted Moscow to act as an intermediary).
The military did not want to surrender.
Who would have won the argument if we had not dropped the bomb? The military.
After we dropped the bomb, the Emporer finally stepped in and broke the stalemate and said they would surrender. What most people don’t know is that the night before Japan was to surrender, a group of military officers tried to break in and steal the Emporer’s already recorded surrender speech (scheduled to be aired the next day) and stage a coup. This was tantamount to blasphemy in Japan, yet some military officers still tried it.
Without the dropping of the bomb, the Emporer could have never of broken the stalemate and surrendered—the military establishment would never have stood for it.
Reference: The World at War (BBC documentary)
I think this remains an accurate assessment of Japanese thinking at the end of the war.
What the new revisionism must claim is that a Soviet invasion of Manchuria would have caused Japan to surrender, even if there had been no nuclear attacks.
Personally, I think the Soviets would have been in for a heck of a fight.
what even more people don’t know and in some cases are willfully ignorant towards is the fact many American POW’s were butchered by camp guards after the enraged jap guards found out the japs had surrendered...
its always been my contention had jap atrocities in WWII been broadcast to the same degree nazi atrocities had most of the population would have committed hari kari out of embarrassment or at the very least had Dugout Doug MacArthur not sold out, japan would’ve been a subservient country for a century...do some quick research on unit 731....
thank you