Microsoft chief resear]ch and strategy officer Craig Mundie. Photo: Jochen Siegle
Posted on 04/01/2011 12:00:11 AM PDT by Swordmaker
Is there a future for tablets?
Microsoft chief research and strategy officer Craig Mundie believes tablets may not be here to stay.
As virtually the entire consumer electronics industry throws its weight behind tablet computers, Microsoft's global chief research and strategy officer Craig Mundie said today that he did not know whether the booming new category was here to stay.
Speaking at a lunch held in Sydney by the Committee for Economic Development of Australia (CEDA), Mundie, who reports directly to Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer, said he did not know whether tablets like the iPad would "remain with us or not".
Mundie said he believed the smartphone "as it emerges more will become your most personal computer", while laptops would occupy a space he dubbed the "portable desk".
"I think there's an important distinction - and frankly one we didn't jump on at Microsoft fast enough - between mobile and portable," he said.
"Mobile is something that you want to use while you're moving, and portable is something that you move and then use.
"These are going to bump into one another a little bit and so today you can see tablets and pads and other things that are starting to live in the space in between. Personally I don't know whether that space will be a persistent one or not."
Mundie went on to talk about a new type of smartphone technology he had seen in the labs. When the user looks at the phone, "instead of seeing a screen it can beam individual rays of light into your eyes right on your retina ... [so] you can look at your phone and see HDTV".
"I don't know whether the big screen tablet pad category is going to remain with us or not," he said.
Mundie's views diverge from that of Apple founder Steve Jobs, who believes tablets form an integral part of the "post-PC" era.
Although Mundie and Jobs agree to an extent in that they both believe smartphones are becoming our main computing device, Microsoft has consistently criticised tablets for lacking traditional PC features like keyboards. Ballmer has previously said the iPad was just a new type of PC form factor.
Mundie's comments about tablets go some way towards explaining why the software giant has only made a half-hearted attempt to enter the tablet space so far.
Microsoft founder Bill Gates attempted to kick-start the tablet revolution over a decade ago when the company supported a range of laptop-like devices with screens that could swivel to become tablets, operated by a stylus.
However, these types of tablets never took off and it took Apple's iPad to bring the technology to the masses. Now, tablets are the fastest-growing category of computers but it is largely a two-horse race between Apple and Google's Android.
Several Windows 7-based tablets have been announced - Acer launched two in Australia today - but these have been heavily criticised because they do not offer a more modern touch-friendly interface, instead attempting to shoe-horn the regular desktop version of Windows into a tablet form factor.
As for desktops, Mundie had a bold prediction: "I believe the successor to the desktop is the room, that instead of thinking that the computer is just something on the desk that you go and sit in front of, [in the] future basically the whole room is the computer and you go in it."
Mundie spent most of his talk discussing the Kinect motion-sensing accessory for the Xbox 360, soon to be offered for the PC as well. Kinect was recently crowned the fastest-selling consumer electronics device by Guinness World Records, ahead of both the iPhone and iPad.
The Kinect's 3D cameras and microphones essentially turn the player's body into the game controller, and users can interact with the Xbox using gestures and voice commands
Microsoft has recently opened Kinect up to developers, who have used the inexpensive but powerful sensor to create a range of new applications that were unheard of when Kinect was first unveiled.
These extend far beyond gaming and one example given by Mundie is a team of students in Germany who developed a way for blind people to ride a bicycle. They used a Kinect sensor - connected to a laptop in a backpack - strapped to a helmet, which was coupled with a belt with three vibrating panels that would be able to communicate directions to the blind rider.
Mundie envisions Kinect being used to deliver personalised education and health care to people in remote areas.
Kinect allows the computer to see and hear the user and it could therefore interact with people in a more human way. Mundie calls this the "natural user interface".
Microsoft showed a video of a computer interacting with a mother and her child in India. The computer was able to diagnose whether the child's symptoms warranted seeing a doctor by asking various questions - "is your tummy hurting" - and then schedule the doctor's appointment.
"The avatar doctor ... is just figuring out with each additional answer what is the possible conditions that this kid has and then it finally makes a decision whether it's an acute problem or not an acute problem," Mundie said.
The technology could also revolutionise teaching, he said, by freeing the teacher up from having to deliver basic information and perform administrative tasks.
"Today we have this lecture model of teaching ... and yet I think it may be possible to invert that role if you have a computer that can deliver a lot of basic training on a personalised basis and do the assessment and testing and provide an immediate closed feedback loop ... the teacher is then free from administrative aspects and the basic broadcasting of information."
Mundie said that within five years computers and televisions would be sold with Kinect sensors built in.
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Er... Riiiiight!!!
Consider the humble clipboard. It is not as capable as a three-ring binder, has nowhere near the capacity of the file drawer at your desk, and isn’t as portable as a pocket-sized memo pad. And yet the clipboard persists, because it’s the best solution to a particular group of tasks.
I don’t understand the thought process of people who should know better who insist that tablets are a passing fad. Do they really think their potential customers are simply stupid? That the tens of millions of people who bought tablets, use them daily, and wax rhapsodic about them are going to wake up one day and realize they were wrong?
Tablets aren’t going to replace laptops, just as laptops didn’t replace desktops and desktops didn’t replace mainframes (though they’re mostly called “server farms” now). Too many companies will try to jump on the bandwagon, and many of them will fail, just as a lot of companies made bad bets in the early days of personal computers. But the combination of a tablet form factor and a touch interface is the right tool for a lot of jobs, and it isn’t going to go away any time soon.
Mundie went on to talk about a new type of smartphone technology he had seen in the labs. When the user looks at the phone, "instead of seeing a screen it can beam individual rays of light into your eyes right on your retina ... [so] you can look at your phone and see HDTV".I think there's no doubt that, given enough development time, something will come along to replace the display screen which will be smaller, yet give more FOV and resolution, than current screens.
I am thinking about buying an IPad- however it is very costly.
Is there a quality difference between an IPad and an android tablet?
The android tablets are much cheaper.
If I was to buy an android tablet, which brand is the best?
Just asking if anyone knows the answer , as I am computer illiterate.
If tablets ARE indeed a “flash in the pan”, Microsoft sure as hell won’t be doing anything to fill the void. Just about everything they’ve done over the past 5 or 6 years has certifiably sucked! They are barely relevant anymore. They are just running though money while sitting there, waiting to be replaced by someone.
Yep. That said, I do think the current crop of 10” tablets *is* a fad. They are a bit too large to be truly portable without some sort of carrier when not in use.
I figure that it’ll settle out at maybe a 7-8 inch size.
I think the tablet computer will have a niche for a long time. It won’t replace the laptop but for some people it is all they need – particularly for gamers. Personally I prefer a full size keyboard separate from the screen.
I can think of only one electronic device that has disappeared, the PDA (Personal Digital Assistant for the younger crowd). Its functions have been taken over by cell phones.
I seldom take these people seriously. I remember when computers first became relatively small, affordable and we were promised the paperless office. How’d that work out?
Chief strategist, and reports directly to Ballmer.
Okay. That explains it.
Well, Apple IS a hardware company. And Jobs is a stickler for the design of a device as well as it’s user interface software functionality. I’ve only seen and played around with a Samsung 7” tablet at a store. It was alright. I don’t think from a hardware standpoint it is as well designed as the iPad which I do own.
As for costs. Yea, it’s not cheap, but it’s not really overpriced either and is comparable to the higher end Android based devices with similar specs.
So go seek out both and take a look. If you have an apple store near you, go there for the iPad. They have many on display, all live and connected to the net, with plenty of knowledgable people to answer your questions. Droids, you can probably find at Best Buy, and a few other places. Hold them, feel them, play around with them.
I think the iOS is a good fit for those who say they’re not computer literate.
Curious comments from Craig.
I have some photos, circa mid nineties of his brainchild, The Microsoft Home. In it there is a tablet PC (A prototype built by Toshiba I believe) that had an esoteric piece of software designed to interact wirelessly with the facility.
At a time when WiFi, broadband, and mobile computing were still in their infancies, he (or at least his people) seemed to recognize the value of tablets and mobile computing.
MSFT wouldn't look so stupid if they stopped pretending that we are.
The comparable tablets aren’t cheaper, and the cheaper tablets aren’t comparable. The Xoom and Galaxy Tab are well-built by companies that have a good reputation for quality, but one side effect of a (somewhat) open OS is that anyone can put it on any conglomeration of off-the-shelf hardware slapped together with less design and engineering skill than a drunken crow with a nest full of shiny objects.
The best answer is to try them hands-on. That’s true of any technology, but especially tablets. You wouldn’t buy a car without a test-drive, not just to try speed and handling, but to find out if the seat pokes you in an uncomfortable way or the door sills are too high and mess up your visibility or you can’t easily reach the radio controls and cup holder. There are hundreds of little variables that add up to the driving experience that don’t translate to a spec sheet.
I have my doubts about the smaller tablets. If by “some sort of a carrier” you mean something other than a pocket, a 7” tablet doesn’t solve that problem; it’s a slightly smaller size and negligibly lower weight at the trade-off of a lot less screen real estate.
I think we might actually see some slightly larger tablets. Something about the size and shape of a legal pad folder, something that a lot of people are already accustomed to tucking under an arm and carrying around. Of course, there is no one right size for everyone, so I think we’ll see a sweet spot where most of the sales are — like the 13-15” range for laptops — with smaller and larger options as niche products.
Well, first of all there is actually only one Android tablet that is running a OS that is designed for a tablet: the Motorola Xoom. It runs Android 3.0 honeycomb. The rest are running the phone version of Android squished and expanded to sort of run as a tablet contrary to Google's advice! Even though ithe Xoom has a high resolution, slightly wider screen than the iPad, it is also a far lower in quality screen, losing brightness and color quicckly at just slightly less than normal viewing angles!
The best of the next non-honeycomb lot is the Samsung 7" Galaxy Tab (soon to be released as a 10" version... Someday). However the 7" version's screen is 55% smaller than the iPad's and the Xoom's . . Nor is its six-seven hour battery life close to the iPad's and Xoom's documented 10-12 hour life! That's unfortunate because 32GB Tab's unsubsidized price is also MORE expensive than the 32GB iPad's!
Most of the rest are still vapor or hot air ware. The others on the market literally are no where even near in contention! Most of the low cost Android "tablets" use resistance touch screens (instead of capacitance) with styluses, lack multitouch capability, have battery life measured under four hours, and memory capacity under two Gigabytes on board with SD Slots not useful for anything but storage.
Even the Xoom has only 17 tablet optimized applications available for it in the Android Market place (Steve Jobs was being charitable when he said under one hundred in his keynote address unveiling the iPad2). . . Although it can use all of the Android non-phone Apps available. Unfortunately those apps are merely size doubled to attempt to fit the screen and often spill off the screen and don't scroll. Some controls are unavailable because they are off the screen.
Compare that to the now over 70,000 tablet optimized apps available for the iPad and 300,000 fully functional non-phone apps from the iPhone and iPod touch that work just fine on the iPad. . . Plus an entire Eco-system of accessories that simply are not available for any of the Android models.
Every viable Android tablet in competition with the iPad is MORE expensive (or competitive) than the iPad unless you buy it with a data contract! That can get you a $200 discount up front but it adds $800 - $1200 onto the price over the two years of the contract! The Xoom REQUIRES a contract to even turn on the WIFI, but you can cancel after one month! The iPad 3G WIFI is purchasable without a contract and you can buy your airtime as you go, when you need it.
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