Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
It’s being reported in the Telegraph that the activist who started the uprising in Egypt was here and being supported by the U.S. and went back in Dec. 2008.
You have a hard line islamic in the white hut. Good luck with that. Whatever is best for hard line Islam and whatever is the worst thing for the USA - he will do.
All of TV loves him and that is all that matters to drooling idiots who watch TV.
That will probably be dirt cheap in a year...(which is what obama wants.)
In Texas maybe. In California it will be $7.00.
I'm sure he's been part of Team Stability In The Region Uber Alles long enough to have formed his facts around the opinion his superiors wanted. Each discipline or organization of intel has their fatal flaw, and in the CIA, it's intellectual obeisance to politically sensitive bosses.
AI don’t feel good about having a fool of a community organizer executing this.
Ain’t it the truth!
I am very scared for Iraq, since we just finished putting a democracy in there. Those muzzies and jihadis would love nothing more than tumbling that fragile democracy.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
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Woo-hoo, Dutch Boy. I’m with you!
Is the next leader of Egypt certain to be Muslim Brotherhood? Is there no hope it can swing towards ElBaradei? Or is your CIA friend presuming that Mr. Nobel Peace Prize is likely to tip towards MB?
Well, when it comes to Mr.Destroy America, wish for that in one hand and spit in the other. Which hand will get full first?
About 1100 AD Hassan bin Sabah enlightened Islamist societies to terrorism as foundational statecraft for political prosperity. Philosophical and religious lawyers retained their lives, and obtained support for dictators by backwards engineering the Koran into useful totalitarian heterodoxies. Concurrently, foundational thought including Jews, Christians and Muslims as ‘People of the Book” became hazardous. Concurrently, Saladin’s Sufism stressing individual relationship with God, and exalting individuals in society became marginalized. Concurrently, extraordinary Arab achievements in mathematics, philosophy, science, and medicine submerged within authoritarian and feral societies. Omar Khayyam, Ibn al-Haytham, and Abu Ali al-Hussain Ibn Sina had no successors for uncompromising, independent thought.
Lethal electioneering among aspiring Islamic totalitarians causes them to grasp and retain their power through superior alliances of human cunning with animal brutality. For them an internal/external continuum exists where politics is war without bloodshed, and war is politics with bloodshed. Why abandon such proved strategies? Those who want a parliamentary solution often need not apply.
I am reminded again of what an extraordinary political leader Sadat became.
Egypt doesn’t have that much oil. A much bigger threat is Saudi Arabia, or even Libya. Iran would also be a problem in that regard, but it’s a problem that I would rather have than the nuclear problem we’ve now got.
“Mubarak acted stupidly.”
(It seems to me our options are limited)
It won’t matter-his a$$holiness will replace the oil with alternative energy. Unfortunately, the only thing we can do quickly enough is ride bicycles. //major sarc//
LOL! Is this the CIA telling you this?
“I can not understand how or why we would back anyone who wants sharia law.”
I guess the CIA or the average American brainwashed in HD has looked who is in the white hut??? Poster boy for global sharia.
Eff the CIA. They support hussein along with the NSA/Google. *****n traitors! Wasn’t he one of their contractors years ago along with his bizarre (Ford Foundation cover) mom and weird family? She was a CIA cutout along with the rest of the clan.
They let an usurper with no background records pull off a coup here. Stupid public. But hey the Super Bowl is next week.
Whether we begin drilling tomorrow, will have little affect on oil production....perhaps 2 years out, not now. It takes a while just to get the ships or rigs in place IF THEY ARE AVAILABLE which they are not.
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