Posted on 07/28/2010 12:18:12 PM PDT by Free ThinkerNY
A massive asteroid might crash into Earth in the year 2182, scientists have warned.
The asteroid, called 1999 RQ36, has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth at some point before the year 2200, but is most likely to hit us on 24th September 2182.
It was first discovered in 1999 and is more than 1,800 feet across. If an asteroid of this size hit the Earth it would cause widespread devastation and possible mass extinction.
And scientists say that any attempt to try and divert the asteroid will have to take place more than 100 years before it is due to hit to have any chance of success.
If the asteroid had not been spotted until after 2080 it would be impossible to divert it from its target, they warned in a new research paper.
While the odds may seem long, they are far shorter than that of the asteroid Apophis, which currently has a 1 in 250,000 chance of striking Earth in 2036.
A competition was launched in 2008 by the Planetary Society for designs for a space probe to land on Apophis and monitor its progress.
Maria Eugenia Sansaturio and scientists from the Universidad de Valladolid in Spain have used mathematical models to calculate the risk of the asteroid hitting the Earth anytime between now and the year 2200.
And they were shocked to discover that there are two potential opportunities for the asteroid to hit Earth in the year 2182.
‘The total impact probability of asteroid '(101955) 1999 RQ36' can be estimated in 0.00092 –approximately one-in-a-thousand chance-, but what is most surprising is that over half of this chance (0.00054) corresponds to 2182,’ Sansaturio said.
The asteroid is now behind the Sun and will next be observable only in the spring of 2011.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
Who cares? None of us will be alive by then. Even if it were to hit in 150+ years, I believe they will develop technology to either deflect the asteroid or destroy it.
It the thing is only 1800 feet wide how could it possibly cause mass extinction??
Oh. Another excuse for a new czar - for Interplanetary Climate Control . . .
Any chance it will eliminate all ‘rats?
Bush’s Fault!
Good thing I will be kicking glory dust up on the streets of gold by that time!!!
With any luck, it may come before BO’s re-election in ‘12...if there still ARE elections by then.
“...has a 1-in-1,000 chance of actually hitting the Earth...”
I like those odds.
See my tagline.
WHO CARES!
I don’t.
I more concerned about what is happenng NOW!
We can NOT stop it anyway.
I think that was the PMS episode.
Catastrophism ping
Aw, come on! It's absolutely going to ruin my 214th birthday party.
Clinton's fault. Just like the 9-11 attacks, he knew and did nothing.
Who cares? Global warming will have killed off civilization by then anyway.
A small nudge now would make a big difference to its orbit.
But yeah, until we have more data we don’t know exactly how to nudge it.
Better stock up on the Prep H!
I suspect this estimate is based on currently (or readily) available technology. Scientific advancement should let us open that window a bit. OTOH, if we continue to elect Barackamite Luddites, our grandchildren might be dancing around bonfires shaking bones at the gods to make the Sky Demon go away.
What a crock.
An 1800 foot long asteroid is not massive.
1 in 1000 chance of hitting Earth is pretty slim.
Mass extinctions? No way.
Junk science.
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