Posted on 09/19/2008 7:00:36 PM PDT by Kevmo
Within the last couple of days, Intrade has posted a version of the electoral map that Momaw Nadon has been generating once a week. The map is now instantaneous.
In the past few days we've seen some fast arbitrage opportunities between the state-to-state contracts that make up the electoral map and the actual presidential individual contracts. The state-to-state contracts used to lag the individual contracts by several days, but now they catch up relatively quickly, within one day.
But there have been some wild swings lately, and we're in the middle of one now. So let's post arbitrage possibilities here on this thread where Freepers can have first crack at them and take some money from liberal pockets.
Right now, the electoral map shows 298 Obama to 240 McCain. That seems very far out of balance for this being such a tight race, and indeed it's probably not reflective of the true nature of how people will vote. I suspect at this time that the vote will be more like 276 McCain to 262 Obama. The trick is finding out which states are the most out of balance and place your bets there. In addition, you need to have the confidence that McCain is doing better than the more recent poll results.
For instance, this Math Model might be more accurate. It's difficult right now to tell because... this is the future and no one knows the future. Math Model Shows McCain Ahead By As Many As 27 Electoral College Votes
sciencedaily.com ^ | September 17, 2008
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080917145413.htm
Here is a thread I started at the Intrade Forum to discuss poll results for September.
Post McCain/Palin vs. Obama/Biden Poll Results here for September 2008
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2515.page
I knew there would be a post convention bounce coupled with the excitement of the Palin VP choice and I was right. That in itself was a major profit opportunity.
I posted the opportunity for profit here on Free Republic so that Freepers could enjoy the fruits first.
Trying to Quantify Liberal Bias at Intrade Free Republic ^ | September 9, 2008 | Kevmo http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2078429/posts
Things have slowed down for the McCain/Palin steep rise because of the recent economic meltdown on Wall Street. There have been other arbitrage opportunities that I've posted on the Liberal Bias thread but it's in the Smoky Backroom and very few freepers know about it.
These arbitrage opportunities move much faster now with the electoral map as the first thing seen upon Intrade login.
Links:
sciencedaily.com ^ | September 17, 2008
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080917145413.htm
http://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2515.page
Trying to Quantify Liberal Bias at Intrade Free Republic ^ | September 9, 2008 | Kevmo
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-backroom/2078429/posts
Copying over pertinent information from the other thread...
To: Kevmo; All; y’all; et al
On the weekly Intrade projection map thread... bias showing up.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2083017/posts?page=32#32
To: Momaw Nadon
This morning there’s a new graphic on the Intrade login screen: it looks like your electoral map of Intrade results.
McCain has slight edge on the map, but Obama has retaken the lead for the individual pres. contracts. That might mean an arbitrage opportunity somewhere.
29 posted on 09/17/2008 9:39:04 AM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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To: Kevmo
This morning there’s a new graphic on the Intrade login screen: it looks like your Electoral map of Intrade results.
Impressive!
I like the way they did it.
They even calculated the weighted average in addition to the full Electoral Vote totals.
GMTA!
:-)
30 posted on 09/17/2008 2:03:25 PM PDT by Momaw Nadon (”...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.”)
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To: Momaw Nadon
Intrade currently has Obama 291 to McCain 247. I think they’ve swung too far in the other direction, so there’s money on the table. All one has to do is pick a poll they trust and follow those results, betting where there’s a difference between that poll and Intrade. Intrade is full of Obamessiah Worshippers, so they probably have a strong bias reflected in their trading.
And, since the Intrade electoral map was just posted only a day or so ago, that’s the first thing Intraders see, so they’ll move on a state that has the highest likelihood of bumping over to Obama in order to boost the results they see on that page. The emotional content of the trade is VERY high right now, and there’s money to be made off of these liberals.
32 posted on 09/18/2008 9:47:23 PM PDT by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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14 posted on Thursday, September 18, 2008 9:50:04 PM by Kevmo (Obama Birth Certificate is a Forgery. http://www.freerepublic.com/tag/certifigate/index?tab=articles)
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If you want to see the betting odds of the electoral vote, here it is.
At this point it’s like grasping at straws. Wait until the debates are over.
Do you think the electoral map should show 240 McCain to 298 Obama? If not, which states stand out as the most obvious?
Intrade shows the chances of Hillary Clinton being President as 2.5%. That sounds extremely high to me.
2008.PRES.CLINTON(H)
Hillary Clinton to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 2.4 2.6 2.5 576065 -0.2
Contract
PALIN.VP.WITHDRAWN
Sarah Palin to be withdrawn as Republican VP nominee/candidate before 2008 presidential election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
5.9 6.0 6.0 23186 +0.1
Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate
Contract BIDEN.VP.WITHDRAWN
Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate before 2008 presidential election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
6.8 7.0 7.0 5211 +1.9
I don’t know. Which one of those links should I go through to see the map?
Right now there’s a true arbitrage opportunity because the democratic . electoral college > 270 votes is at 50 and the Republican . electoral college > 270 votes is at 54.
DEM.ELEC.COLLEGE.>270
Democratic Nominee to win 270 or more Electoral College Votes M Trade 51.0 54.0 50.0 65 0
REP.ELEC.COLLEGE.>270
Republican Nominee to win 270 or more Electoral College Votes M Trade 45.0 53.9 54.0 247 +4.0
The contract for Electoral College coming in a tie seems high. Good opportunity to short it.
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
ELECTORAL.COLLEGE.TIE
Electoral College to be tied 269-269 after 2008 presidential election M Trade 3.5 5.9 5.9 137 -0.1
One arbitrage possibility to keep an eye on is the difference between Presidential Election Winner (Political Party) and Presidential Election Winner (Individual) ...
Right now they are relatively matched, but the Individual contract tends to swing faster than the political party contract, and when that happens it’s a piece of arbitrage.
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Political Party)
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
PRESIDENT.DEM2008
Democratic Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade 52.8 53.0 52.8 113669 +1.2
PRESIDENT.REP2008
Republican Party Candidate to Win 2008 Presidential Election M Trade 47.7 48.3 48.0 110925 +0.5
2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual)
Contract Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 51.3 51.4 51.4 509098 -0.4
2008.PRES.McCAIN
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade 47.5 47.6 47.8 595526 -0.0
Intraders sometimes post some opportunities on this thread on their bulletin board. It’s probably after they’ve taken advantage of it themselves and they don’t have the free margin to go after the opportunities, but it’s worth keeping an eye out for them.
https://bb.intrade.com/intradeForum/posts/list/2090.page
If I read your figures right, it would cost $107.9 to buy a share of both, and one could only get $96.0 for selling shares of both, so where's the arbitrage?
On the state-by-state contracts, the only one that stands out for me right now is Pennsylvania, which seems closer than the odds Intrade shows right now. The disparity was even wider earlier, so it looks like that loophole is closing up.
PENNSYLVANIA.DEM
Democratic Party Nominee to win Pennsylvania’s Electoral College Votes in 2008 Election M Trade 66.1 69.0 67.0 2224 -3.0
PENNSYLVANIA.REP
Republican Party Nominee to win Pennsylvania’s Electoral College Votes in 2008 Election M Trade 33.0 33.8 33.8 3877 +0.5
The arbitrage comes when the contracts level off. Right now the two add to 104%, when they level off they’ll add up to 100%, so there’s 4% you get to keep once it levels off.
Doesn't Intrade have a buy/sell spread, though? If the 'buy' prices for a set of contracts comprising all possible outcomes totals less than $100, you can get $100 for less than $100--a guaranteed win. If the 'sell' price for a set of all possible outcomes is over $100, you can buy for $100 and sell for more--also a guaranteed win. But if the 'buy' is over $100 and the 'sell' is less, no arbitrage exists.
I don’t know. Sounds like a legitimate question to me. I see Intraders all the time posting arbitrage possibilities when things add up to more than 100%. From what I can tell, there are people on the board who do just that.
Intrade electoral count currently shows McCain 227 to Obama 311. Most polls show a very close tie. There’s an opportunity here.
The current electoral count on Intrade is back to 265 McCain and 273 Obama.
Looks like these opportunities are much faster moving than before, due to the electoral map posting on Intrade.
Momaw, tomorrow you’ll be posting the electoral map as usual. But things have changed dramatically for that map due to the one on Intrade. It might be time to just convert your list into an Intrade Ping List.
Contract 2008.PRES.McCAIN
The Intrade Electoral map is back to 227 McCain vs. 311 Obama, which I think is severely underpricing McCain in several states and in the individual president contract.
John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
42.3 42.4 42.1 663754 -1.7
2008.PRES.OBAMA
Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election M Trade
Bid Ask Last Vol Chge
55.8 56.7 56.6 647424 +0.9
The last few days have been a bumpy ride, and on top of that there have been database issues on Free Republic, so I couldn’t even post to this thread until now.
It might be time for a daily intrade thread until the election. There’s money on the table that we get to take from mostly liberals.
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