TS Gustav & TS Hanna

NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

[NautiNurse]

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav	Hanna
Visible Satellite Image Loop Infrared Satellite Image Loop	Visible Image Loop Infrared Image Loop
WV Satellite Image Loop	WV Image Loop
Public Advisory	Public Advisory
Discussion	Discussion
Buoy Data: Western Caribbean                   FL and East GOM                   Western GOM	East Caribbean West Atlantic Florida

Forecast Models

Category	Wind Speed	Barometric Pressure	Storm Surge	Damage Potential
Tropical Depression	< 39 mph < 34 kts			Minimal
Tropical Storm	39 - 73 mph 34 - 63 kts			Minimal
Hurricane 1 (Weak)	74 - 95 mph 64 - 82 kts	28.94" or more 980.02 mb or more	4.0' - 5.0' 1.2 m - 1.5 m	Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2 (Moderate)	96 - 110 mph 83 - 95 kts	28.50" - 28.93" 965.12 mb - 979.68 mb	6.0' - 8.0' 1.8 m - 2.4 m	Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3 (Strong)	111 - 130 mph 96 - 112 kts	27.91" - 28.49" 945.14 mb - 964.78 mb	9.0' - 12.0' 2.7 m - 3.7 m	Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4 (Very strong)	131 - 155 mph 113 - 135 kts	27.17" - 27.90" 920.08 mb - 944.80 mb	13.0' - 18.0' 3.9 m - 5.5 m	Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5 (Devastating)	Greater than 155 mph Greater than 135 kts	Less than 27.17" Less than 920.08 mb	Greater than 18.0' Greater than 5.5m	Catastrophic building failures possible

[NautiNurse]

URNT12 KNHC 300519
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/04:47:00Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
080 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2843 m
D. 76 kt
E. 339 deg 020 nm
F. 069 deg 084 kt
G. 337 deg 026 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WND 85 KT SE QUAD 04:54:10 Z

[eastforker]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Dvorak seems to show near due west now,,,wobble ?,,,

Floater - Infrared Channel 2 Loop looks like the eye is reforming,,,

The next forecast point says Cat-2,,,

Soooo ?

[jpsb]

thanks, I am seeing maybe a little west of nw, but that do I know. I will watch it enter the Gulf, if it’s close to the Yacan, I will worry. If it’s close to Cuba then Texas will (most likely) be fine.

[jpsb]

Whats up with Hana? Is she headd to the GoM too?

[NautiNurse]

That’s a pretty good indicator.

[Enosh]

Shampa Saha

I love her.

[NautiNurse]

Hanna has been struggling with wind shear. Forecast is for slow development over the next day or two.

[NautiNurse]

Gustav 0200 Update: Movement NW at 12 mph, and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds 85 mph. 971 mb.

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

The way it’s been shifting west I’m now thinking between

Atchafalaya Bay and Port Cameron,,,

I don’t it will make it to Galveston,,,

Still waaay to early I guess...

[Uncle Ike]

Woke up to this headline on MSN/MSNBC homepage this morning...

---

Category 2 Gustav plows through Caymans

Strengthening hurricane’s projected track to carry it to La. by Tuesday

updated 1 hour, 55 minutes ago
GEORGE TOWN, Cayman Islands - Gustav swelled to a Category 2 hurricane early Saturday with winds near 100 mph after plowing through the Cayman Islands toward Cuba, gathering strength on a journey that could take it to the U.S. Gulf Coast as a fearsome Category 3 storm three years after Hurricane Katrina.

Gustav, which killed 71 people in the Caribbean, hit the Caymans Friday with fierce winds that tore down trees and power lines. It was expected to cross Cuba’s cigar country Saturday and head into the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26451955/

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Hey Ike,,,I just checked Floater - Visible Loop,,,

Gus looks like it’s back on that NW track,,,

Still looks like the eye-strike will be on the Louisiana

coast,,,

Maybe as far west as Port Cameron,,,

WalleyWorld looked like the Nut House,,,

Gunna be WET around here...;0)

[Uncle Ike]

Hiya, Count...

At the moment, it looks like we (Mobile, AL) will just get a small piece of the action — if any...

Which hasn’t stopped my place of (ugh) employment (think Big Orange Box) from being a panicky madhouse the past couple of days....

Things could get kinda lively for you, though....

Hunker down....

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on August 30, 2008

Gustav has been rapidly intensifying during the overnight hours.
Satellite images indicate that an eye is becoming visible and deep
convection surrounding the eye is now very intense. The central
pressure is down to 965 mb...a drop of about 24 mb in 24 hours. The
maximum flight level winds reported by the Air Force crew were 100
kt around 6z... corresponding to about 90 kt at the surface.
However the satellite presentation has continued to improve...thus
the initial intensity is increased conservatively to 95 kt.
Objective Dvorak T-numbers are much higher and the next aircraft
pass through Gustav could find a major hurricane.

Further intensification is expected for the next day or so while the
system traverses the extremely warm and deep waters of the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico.
However...by 48 hours...almost all of the global models show an
increase in vertical wind shear near Gustav. In addition...since
The Loop current is south of its typical location...the hurricane
will be moving over waters that are not nearly as conducive for
strengthening as they could be. These two factors will hopefully
weaken the storm prior to U.S. Landfall. However...Gustav is
expected to be a large and dangerous hurricane and the NHC forecast
continues to show Gustav as a major hurricane at landfall.

The initial motion estimate is 310/10. A mid-level ridge from the
western Atlantic to northern Florida is expected to continue moving
the hurricane to the northwest for the next couple of days.
Thereafter...a ridge over the Ohio Valley should cause a gradual
leftward Bend in the track as Gustav approaches the northern Gulf
Coast. Most of the guidance is in good agreement on this scenario
except for the UKMET/HWRF...which turn the system just offshore.
These two models are slower and to the left of most of the track
guidance...which allows a ridge to form over Texas to turn the
storm. The official forecast will stay with the majority of the
guidance and is basically an update to the previous package. Gustav
will likely slow down significantly in the longer-term...which
could cause a considerable flooding threat over Louisiana or Texas.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/0900z 20.2n 81.3w 95 kt
12hr VT 30/1800z 21.2n 82.7w 105 kt
24hr VT 31/0600z 22.9n 84.6w 110 kt
36hr VT 31/1800z 24.6n 86.4w 115 kt
48hr VT 01/0600z 26.5n 88.3w 110 kt
72hr VT 02/0600z 29.5n 91.5w 100 kt...near Louisiana coast
96hr VT 03/0600z 30.5n 93.0w 70 kt...inland
120hr VT 04/0600z 31.0n 94.0w 35 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Blake/Avila

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

At the moment, it looks like we (Mobile, AL) will just get a small piece of the action — if any...

Which hasn’t stopped my place of (ugh) employment (think Big Orange Box) from being a panicky madhouse the past couple of days....

Things could get kinda lively for you, though....

Hunker down....
~~~
All ready to Hunker here,,,

I guess everybody is in the “GRAB” mode in these parts,,,

I bought a car load of stuff myself,,,

Mite need Mo’Pie,,,;0)

Glad this one missed ya’ll,,,

One thing Gus ain’t gunna miss is them wells/rigs in the

Gulf,,,gas up a dime overnite,,,

Folks from south La. are here in droves...

[Elle Bee]

some thunder out on the gulf-stream very little rain ... pretty mellow night in Key West

.

[Uncle Ike]

” Gulf,,,gas up a dime overnite,,, “

Gas went up 16 cents at my usual (discount, of course) station yesterday — almost afraid to drive past the sign today....

[1COUNTER-MORTER-68]

almost afraid to drive past the sign today....
~~~
Well don’t look tomorrow,,,

It’s sure to go up that much again...

[Uncle Ike]

Weather channel reporting 110mph winds for Gustav, now....

Things are picking up fast....

[raygun]

I don’t konw what you guys call “just a small piece of the action” in those parts, but its lookin’ like by Monday sunrise Panama City through Gulfport had better be prepared for some storm surge.

By then St. Vincent Island, FL could see waves and swells combine to about 12’. The further west one goes, the higher the wave action gets. Between Pensacola to Biloxi they’ll rise at least to about 18’. Out by South Pass, 35’ for certain. How much of that gets to Biloxi-Mobile-Panama City coastline, I don’t know.

Those waves should begin to diminish to 15’ by 1500 Monday (and by about 2 AM Tues subside to a mere 12’).

As far as Hanna, well, have fun. By Thursday Sundown, Titusville to Daytona Beach should expect 32’ swells+wave heights.