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See, I think that at least one of the conventions will be broken, not brokered.

I suspect that the Democrats will most likely have to deal with such a broken convention --- where, due to the internal imbalances in the Democrat Party, they will probably have more of a chance of tearing that party apart.

Here's my scenario: in the wake of her third place finish today, Hillary! manages to say or do something that alienates the black vote even more than Shaheen's stupid-stupid-stupid drug dealer crack did last month. If she doesn't do well in New Hampshire, and if her South Carolina black vote either stays home or votes for Obama, she's hosed, and Obama will collect the largest number of delegates.

But what happens if, after wrapping up the delegates, something horrible comes out about Obama this summer, before the convention? Something so bad that he can't recover from it?

Will the delegates pledged to Obama vote for Hillary!? Or will they demand some other candidate ---- Silky Pony? Kuchinich-rhymes-with-spinach? The left wing of the Democrat Party is so robust, it may go its own way ... not too tired to fly, as in the election of 1968, but flying on its own, as in the election of 1948, with a Chicken Foot Party dedicated to socialism and no foreign entanglements. "Universal health care and all soldiers home in 90 days!"

Contemplate it: Hillary! is the brand-new, original candidate, just handed her party's nomination. She has her own "unelected" issues to deal with, a far-left-wing third party, led by Kuchinich, is saying all the things the whack-jobs want to hear. That party will force her to run more left than she would prefer, and, perhaps, more left than the American people would prefer.

Meanwhile, the Republicans have a calmer convention and --- probably --- no credible third party sprout to contend with (I don't credit Ron Paul.) Even if the Republican nomination process breaks, the split shouldn't tear the party apart.

I tell you, it's mega-popcorn time!

Well I can tell you this much. We are going as far up the delegate tree as we can and that guy that carried the caucus will not be our vote.
In Iowa we are not tied to any of that. Oh, and I don’t think ANY of the Huckabee people stood up as delegates. On another thread some poster mentioned they seemed to be first timers and did not volunteer. That and the real conservative establishment in Iowa, like Steve King, endorsed Fred. One of the other delegates we the guy that stood up and talked for Rudy and was just about the only one that voted for him. So popcorn time indeed. Things could get interesting.

It WILL be a very interesting election season. I think Republicans are so torn apart because this is the first contested primary in a LONG time. There is no real clear favorite, at this point, and folks have to hash things out. I don’t put a whole lot of stock in the results of Iowa and NH, even though my guy did better than expected. They are outliers, as far as I’m concerned, because they don’t seem representative of the majority of Republicans. More will be known after the SC primary and Super Duper Tuesday. Even MA has moved our primary to Feb. 5th so we’ll be part of Super Tuesday.

But what happens if, after wrapping up the delegates, something horrible comes out about Obama this summer, before the convention? Something so bad that he can't recover from it?

That "something" can only come from the Clinton Crime Cartel, no matter how it's "laundered". My own guess is the Clintons will make sure no other DemocRAT has the possibility of winning. They don't want anybody removing their shadow government of all the stay-behind clintonistas entrenched in the government and media. The pubbies have made it clear they won't touch their agents. It would be a different matter with another RAT.

Personally, I'd like to see some action in the streets, like the 1968 convention. Stalinists vs moonbats. I'd even skip the popcorn, and go straight to chips and dips.

See, I think that at least one of the conventions will be broken, not brokered.

I've been thinking a very similar thing. Everything is happening too early. The dems in particular are in danger of becoming pretty well committed to a nominee *way* too early. Too much time for a dean-scream moment, or some dark secret to blow up, or any number of gaffs... or... in an ideal world... the dems sit back and look at their candidate and suddenly it occurs to them: "Wait... what the #$@& were we THINKING??"

Truth is: There is still *plenty* of time for another white-knight sort of candidate to jump into the ring and start scooping up all the marbles. Not Gore, and not Kerry. Somebody new. A governor maybe. Somebody with some charisma. An actor? Not sure... but I'm about 75% sure it's gonna happen.

See... so far only party hacks and the political junkies have really paid any attention. But think about later when Joe Union Steelworker and Jane Teamster start paying attention. You think either of them is going to look at either Hillary or Obama and feel anything other than revulsion? No way they're going to find any deep resonance across the mainstream of the party. I just don't see it.

It's gonna be somebody else. Or: Dem turnout will be record-setting low.

IMHO.