you post these points here - which I agree with by the way, it will become increasingly hard for a conservative Republican to win in the future because of these (and other) trends.
then, on the other thread, you tell me Rudy is a sure loser. But you can't tell me how the Dems make up for a loss of NY and NJ on the electoral map. which states will Hillary win that Bush won in 2004, if Rudy is the candidate?
I'd say that any combination of these could end up in her column:
1. Florida
2. Nevada
3. Ohio
4. Virginia
5. West Virginia
6. New Mexico
7. Missouri
Not that these states will be enamoured of her at all, but because voter turnout will be at a record low if the matchup you've proposed is what we get in 2008 -- and all of those 2004 voters who identified "culture/morals" as the most important issue in this election will stay home. In fact, the two candidates you've proposed are so bad that you have them matched up against the only opponents they could possibly beat -- each other.
I'll even take it one step further . . . A Rudy-Hillary showdown in 2008 would almost guarantee a third-party run by a conservative candidate who would get at least 5% to 7% of the popular vote.