Replies

"A) There's plenty of plausible speculation that AQ already has nukes, much on that topic has been linked and posted in this thread"

True. The most difinitive has been done by Yossef Bodansky, but those are 5 to 20 suitcase weapons of which if they managed to get 5 operational would not be enough to break the spine of the US.

"B) Surely AQ doesn't believe it could ever get successful access to Pakistan's strategic nukes. India, Israel, the US, and probably others would simply not let that happen under any conceivable circumstances."

Surely it does. The Pakistani military and intelligence service is rife with those whose version of Islam is quite radical.

The "why" of why these weapons are such a prized target: they are currently operational, very well maintained and are considerably larger than suitcases. The largest of which is about 5500kg by conservative estimates.

The chance of a US/Israeli/Indian raid to secure all weapons or their fissile material is considered to be extremely difficult to near impossible, depending on which expert on the subject one references.

"AQ is probably cowed by the number and intensity of foreign intelligence operatives there"

Don't you believe this nonsense for even one nanosecond. Cowed? They have dozens of operatives if not hundreds operating on a daily basis here in the USA (belly of the eagle) which does not hinder them one iota. When they are ready they will act. That is a virtual guarrantee.

raid? if it comes to that, just take out the weapons facility with a nuke of our own, why "raid" it.

so far, AQ is an organization that has to either hijack the weapons they use (planes), or use car bombs or boat bombs, not that sophisticated. now we are supposed to believe they have a nuclear arsenal?

access to Pakistan's strategic nukes.

The chance of a US/Israeli/Indian raid to secure all weapons or their fissile material is considered to be extremely difficult to near impossible,

It is utterly inconceivable that China, Russia, India, and/or Israel would allow a radical Islamist regime (e.g., a post-Musharaff Pakistan) to possess nuclear weapons. Remember, the scenario is that the Islamists have detonated a nuke in America, and subsequently gain power in Pakistan.

Which of the above nuclear powers do you think will give one inch of slack to their radical Islamist neighbor, which embraces an ideology that includes the tactical nuking of "infidel" countries? You think ol' Osama is out there making secret detente agreements with China, Russia, and India right now?

"AQ is probably cowed by the number and intensity of foreign intelligence operatives there"

Don't you believe this nonsense for even one nanosecond. Cowed?

Yes, cowed. They cannot operate freely and unhindered in an an environment where top AQ leaders have been captured and delivered to the US. Or maybe that was just a hoax?