The chance of a US/Israeli/Indian raid to secure all weapons or their fissile material is considered to be extremely difficult to near impossible,
It is utterly inconceivable that China, Russia, India, and/or Israel would allow a radical Islamist regime (e.g., a post-Musharaff Pakistan) to possess nuclear weapons. Remember, the scenario is that the Islamists have detonated a nuke in America, and subsequently gain power in Pakistan.
Which of the above nuclear powers do you think will give one inch of slack to their radical Islamist neighbor, which embraces an ideology that includes the tactical nuking of "infidel" countries? You think ol' Osama is out there making secret detente agreements with China, Russia, and India right now?
"AQ is probably cowed by the number and intensity of foreign intelligence operatives there"
Don't you believe this nonsense for even one nanosecond. Cowed?
Yes, cowed. They cannot operate freely and unhindered in an an environment where top AQ leaders have been captured and delivered to the US. Or maybe that was just a hoax?