Posted on 11/01/2002 10:05:21 AM PST by tdadams
Apologies in advance if anyone's has grumbles about this vanity post.
It seems with only a few days to go, some elections are shaping up with winners emerging and some are tightening up and will be difficult to determine.
I know we all like to give our predictions, so let's make this the place. Give us your election predictions. I'm looking for insight on national races from those who live and vote in those areas they comment on. Overall national prediction would be interesting as well.
Governor: Phil Bredesen - Democrat
Senate: Lamar Alexander - Republican
House (4th): Janice Bowling - Republican (this will be an upset victory)
I think Coleman will pull out a surprise and win in Minnesota, Carnahan in Missouri might as well start writing her concession speech, and Shaheen will beat Sununu in New Hampshire, Thune should win in SD but will probably be cheated out of a win by last minute trickery by Daschle's SD mafia.
Nationally, I think the Senate probably remains unchanged, numberswise. Possibly, with late Republican surges in Colorado, Arkansas, or Minnesota, it may be a Republican Senate by one or two seats.
U.S. House easily remains Republican with possibly a 2 or 3 seat gain.
My third prediction, Democrats will once again attempt any means to commit vote fraud, accuse Republicans of intimidating minorities, and filing lawsuits in any close race they lose.
The last prediction is the only one I'm 100% certain on.
Senate: incumbents lose a lot of seats. Carnahan, Cleland, Hutchinson, Allard. Wellstone's seat flips to R, and Smith's NH seats flips to D. Republicans hold TN, TX, NC and SC. So this is a wash. But Landrieu gets 47% and a runoff becomes the big vote down there. And Dems in GA are upset because Chambliss doesn't get 50% but still sneaks in. They changed the law to prevent runoffs a few years ago.
Governors races: Republicans lose a bunch, but the Dems barely making third place in NY is a huge problem for them, as there are no longer Dems on any of the local election boards. Backroom deals in Albany ensures that the Ds don't get off, as they amend the law to also include legislative seats.
Both sides claim victory on the nightly news. Chafee probably ends up switching.
Landrieu - 45%
Terrell - 19%+
Perkins - 19%
Cooksey - 16%
I base these numbers on the following thoughts.
Mrs. Terrell will win most of the undecided Republicans primarily because she is seen as the candidate most likely to beat Landrieu in the runoff. Her totals would have been a little higher, but she wasn't as good in the debates as she is giving a regular speech on the campaign trail.
Mr. Perkins will run a very close second on the strength of his debate performances and a large turnout from religious conservatives who have not been consistent voters.
Dr. Cooksey will finish fourth. The endorsement from Governor Foster will help him, but I don't see any sign of his campaign gaining momentum.
In the runoff, Mrs. Terrell wins over Mrs. Landrieu 51% to 49%. Knowing that she will face a likely runoff, Landrieu won't invoke the Democratic vote fraud machine until December. That machine will be somewhat weaker than it was in the past, but it will still give her a few points. Many of the religious conservatives who supported Mr. Perkins won't bother with the runoff, and their loss will also reduce the Republican turnout.
For the record, I'm still supporting Mr. Perkins. I think he's the kind of man who will stand strongly for what he believes even if he must stand alone. I don't always agree with him, but I think he'll be a good national leader for the conservative movement. I also like each of the other Republican candidates and will proudly support either of them in the runoff.
WFTR
Bill
House: Republicans +4
Senate: Republicans +2
Governors: Dems +5
One thing for sure, President Bush will be greatly disappointed if Hilleary does not win. Bush returns to Tennessee this weekend. Van was one of the authors of the education bill that Bush supports and the President would love to have Tennessee be the model state to sell this program. The program returns control of education to the local level, provides school choice, and takes education out of the grip of the NEA in DC.
If Bredesen does win, get ready for an income tax because it is on the way.
You might enjoy this article. A group of Nashville taxpayers is accompanying the Republican tour to warn fellow Tennesseans of what life is like under the high taxes of Bredesen.
What you said about Bush is certainly true, for more than one reason.
I believe that if Cheney bows out of the 2004 race, Sen. Bill Frist would be Bush's likely candidate for VP, and he'd be a good one.
But there's no chance Bush would select Frist if a Democrat governor (Bredesen) would then be able to appoint a Democrat to the Senate.
Frist is one of those who has term limited himself and is to step down after this term expires. If he does, the Democrats seem eager to push Harold Ford Jr. for the seat. I have heard Ed Bryant, Zach Wamp, and Chip Satlsman as potential Republican candidates.
I really wish that Fred Thompson had come home to run for Governor. That would have been a slam dunk. I get the impression that Thompson is not exactly on the same page with Bush at all times so I guess that is part of the deal.
Mondale 50% Coleman 47 (Wild guess here)
Talent 53% Carnahag 47
Strickland 49% Allard 45
Shaheen 51% Sununu 48
Pryor 53% Hutchinson 47
Lautenberg 51% Forrester 45
Cornyn 52% Kirk 47
Cleland 50% Chambliss 47
Dole 51% Bowles 48
Landrieu 49%
Graham 54% Sanders 45
Alexander 53% Clement 45
House: Republicans +10
Governor: Democrats +3
Court cases: +35
These may seem to be a little optimistic, but I think last minute money is working and W's road trip will bring bonus points that won't be overcome by the rats. The rats need fear and hate to get their base out and W throws a monkey wrench into that plan were ever he goes.
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