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Torie's U.S. House Prediction Spreadsheet
Self
| September 6, 2002
| Self
Posted on 09/06/2002 7:25:44 PM PDT by Torie
Below is my updated spreadsheet on the House races. I know you were all waiting breathlessly for it. The predicted GOP gain has dropped from 4 to 1 since I last posted this about 2 months ago.
Net GOP changes from redistricting and plus close seat calls
Georgia -2 Florida 3
Md -2 Mich 2
Oklahoma -1 Penn 2
Tenn -1 Texas 2
New York -1 Arizona 1
New Mexico -1 Minnesota 1
Nev 1
Ohio 1
Total -8 13
Net GOP 5
Existing 211 224 7
Change -5 5
Post Elec 206 229 12
Vulnerable GOP Vulnerable Dem
Riley (AL open) 1 0.510 Skeen (NM open) 1 0.490
Arizona (new) 1 0.510 Morella (MD) 1 0.490
FL (Thurman) 1 0.510 Matheson (Utah) 1 0.450
Sununu (NH open)1 0.510 Georgia 3rd 1 0.450
So Dak (open) 1 0.510 Colo 7th (new) 1 0.450
Indiana (Roemer)1 0.525 Maine 2nd(open) 1 0.450
Johnson (Conn) 1 0.525 Boswell (Iowa) 1 0.300
Nevada (new) 1 0.525 4th CD (TN open)1 0.300
Luther (MN 2nd) 1 0.550 Georgia 11th 1 0.300
Hayes (N.C.) 1 0.550 Pomeroy (N.D.) 1 0.300
Simmons (Conn) 1 0.600 Hoeffel (Penn) 1 0.300
Penn (6th)(open)1 0.600 Condit (Calif) 1 0.300
Nussle (Iowa) 1 0.600 Moore (Kansas) 1 0.300
Iowa (Latham) 1 0.625
Penn (Gekas) 1 0.650
W.V. (Capito) 1 0.700
KY (Northrup) 1 0.700
New Jersey (5th)1 0.700
PA(Toomey)(15th)1 0.700
Mich(Open)(11th)1 0.700
Mich(Open)(10h) 1 0.700
Iowa (Leach) 1 0.700
Total 22 13.200 13 4.880
Gain Gain
Existing 211 224
Net Change -5 5
206 229
Best Dem 228 17 207 -17
Best GOP 193 -18 242 18
R toss + R Toss -
Toss net 4.880 -8.800
Net Toss -3.920
Existing 211 224 0
Predicted 209.92 -1.08 225.08 1.08
TOPICS: Campaign News; U.S. Congress
KEYWORDS:
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To: Torie
Another small thing, is that I think Hoeffel has a much better than 70% chance of winning reelection. I think it is better than 90% now. A pubbie poll has Brown down by 16.
21
posted on
09/06/2002 9:26:40 PM PDT
by
crasher
To: crasher
AZ is an enigma within a mystery. Your ability to parse it shows just how able a chap you are. The Pubbie is behind in the polls in the very marginal Skeen district, and the Dem is something of a "Torie" Dem. I don't have a positive feeling about that race. On the other hand, I feel a bit better about the Colorado 7th than I did.
22
posted on
09/06/2002 9:26:54 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: crasher
I was unaware of that poll. You are correct. The Pubbie is a great candidate for the district, but well, whatever. I will wait a bit to see how the TV ads affect the polls, but I probably should delete it. Where did you see the poll?
23
posted on
09/06/2002 9:28:47 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
I completely understand your reluctance via the 2000 vote. I posted a couple of days ago a Tarrance (R) poll that shows an 8 point lead for the GOP. Bear in mind that this is an internal poll that was not released to the press so its something more than a typical, partisan poll.
The 7th CD is my district so I'm following it rather closely. My reasons for giving the race a GOP lean are a significant money advantage by the GOP, a pending visit by GWB in the latter part of this month, no Dem coattails in the state to drive turnout and of course, as you saw on C-Span, the GOP candidate is much more appealing in appearance and delivery.
The voter registration in the district is roughly a third Dem, a third GOP and a third independent (I don't have the numbers in front of me but I believe the Dem registration outnumbered the GOP by only one or two percentage points.)
I'm watching for any polling data out of the Dem camp on this race but the lack thereof makes me suspicious that their internals show their candidate down as well.
BB
To: Torie
It was on Politicspa probably a month ago, maybe more. I can't give you a link unfortunately. But if my memory is right, it was 48-32.
In NM, I think the most recent ATR had a GOP poll showing Pearce up 9. A previous GOP poll had us up 6. Now here's where it gets confusing. Roll Call is now saying that a Democratic poll had us down 5 (38-33). But when I first read about this poll (probably on political insider), it was reported as an independent poll. So I don't know who to believe. But either way, the polling evidence at worst shows Pearce is basically tied. And that's enough to convince me that Pearce has at least the slight edge, given that the district is pretty conservative.
25
posted on
09/06/2002 9:36:32 PM PDT
by
crasher
To: Torie
You give the GOP the edge in 229. I give them the edge in 226. Here's where we disagree. I give the GOP the edge in NM. I don't give them the edge in AZ, MN (Luther), NH (Sununu), and FL (Thurman).
I'm also a lot more worried about IN (Roemer). The Dems put out a poll showing us down 9. Our poll showing us up by 17 is very old, and we have not released a new one to my knowledge. I am very close to giving the Dems the edge here.
26
posted on
09/06/2002 9:47:16 PM PDT
by
crasher
To: Torie
2 more things: My list would include LA-05 (OPEN) and TX-05 (OPEN).
I'm also curious about your thought on KY (Lucas). What's your reasoning on him not meeting the 30% barrier.
27
posted on
09/06/2002 9:52:25 PM PDT
by
crasher
To: crasher
Yes, the Indiana seat is iffy. We need an independent poll. Thurman is my pet project. She will remain so until I see a credible poll suggesting otherwise. Both candidates have loads of money. The moderate Pubbie Bradley is slighty ahead in the Sununu district, and if he wins, it should be a bit safer against a Leftie Dem, particulary if Sununu take out Smith, which now seems probable. I won't lift Luther from the living dead until I see an independent poll, or some intelligent commentary about the place. And as you know, this is one district which I know quite well.
The Skeen district poll you cited shocks me.
28
posted on
09/06/2002 9:54:56 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: crasher
Does Lucas have a creditable opponent, and how much money does he have? Lucas says he is running for his last term. I doubt that this DIMO will be bounced.
29
posted on
09/06/2002 9:56:19 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
New Mexico
GOP Poll Gives Pearce Lead in Skeen Seat
A new poll taken for the campaign of former state Rep. Steve Pearce (R) showed him with a 9-point lead over state Sen. John Arthur Smith (D) in their race to replace retiring Rep. Joe Skeen (R) in the 2nd district.
The survey showed Pearce leading Smith 44 percent to 35 percent with 21 percent of respondents undecided. The poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by McLean, Va.-based Wilson Research Strategies, was in the field Aug. 27-29 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.
Among registered Republicans, the poll showed Pearce leading Smith 71 percent to 8 percent. Among Democrats, Smith tallied 55 percent to Pearce's 25 percent while Independents went for Pearce, 41 percent to 33 percent.
A July Democratic poll showed Smith with a 5-point lead, while a GOP poll taken a month earlier had Pearce leading by 6 points.
Democrats hold a slight registration edge in the district, and both parties believe the race will be among the tightest in the country this November.
30
posted on
09/06/2002 9:57:42 PM PDT
by
crasher
To: crasher
I don't consider the other two in play. Never have, and never will, particularly the Louisiana 5th, where life politically is so polarized. I haven't seen a pundit suggest yet that the Texas 5th is in play. I think CQ has it likely GOP, although I could be wrong.
31
posted on
09/06/2002 9:58:14 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
At one point, Lucas was actually being outraised by his opponent. He has money, and raised about $250,000 through that one FEC period I'm thinking of that ended a while ago. He is credible. Obviously he is the underdog, but I'm just not sure by how much.
32
posted on
09/06/2002 10:00:43 PM PDT
by
crasher
To: Torie
The Democratic primary in the MD-2nd is next Tues and Ruppersberger (the fav) is running scared against Bengur (an unknown) and throwing out a lot of mailings recently. My guess is his internal polling is showing it close. If he goes down or the race is real close, I would say Bentley may have a real shot.
To: Nonstatist
Maybe Rupples losing the primary will help the Dem cause. What do you think?
34
posted on
09/06/2002 10:04:27 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
Maybe, but Bengur has zero name recognition and Bentley, although she's about 110 years old, does. The blue collar Baltimore suburbs can surprise, you know.It turns out Gov. Spendenning is leaving the State with a billion dollar defecit; maybe this will have some effect. Then again, maybe not.
To: Nonstatist
We have a 25 billion dollar deficit here in California. Your governor did a great job I think. :)
36
posted on
09/06/2002 10:12:58 PM PDT
by
Torie
To: Torie
LOL. And with 10 % the number of people, maybe he deserves a medal. Of course, Davis is running against the only guy he could possibly beat, while Glendening's heir might have her hands full. If only there was 1 opposition newspaper in the State.... Alas, there isnt.
Comment #38 Removed by Moderator
Comment #39 Removed by Moderator
To: William Creel
Gore won Staten Island by maybe 4%. :)
40
posted on
09/06/2002 11:23:55 PM PDT
by
Torie
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