Torie's U.S. House Prediction Spreadsheet

Self | September 6, 2002 | Self

[Torie]

Below is my updated spreadsheet on the House races. I know you were all waiting breathlessly for it. The predicted GOP gain has dropped from 4 to 1 since I last posted this about 2 months ago.

Net GOP changes from redistricting and plus close seat calls	
		
Georgia	        -2		Florida 	3	
Md 	        -2		Mich	        2	
Oklahoma	-1		Penn	        2	
Tenn     	-1	        Texas	        2	
New York	-1		Arizona	        1	
New Mexico	-1		Minnesota	1	
			        Nev	        1	
			        Ohio 	        1	
					
Total	        -8		               13	
Net GOP				                5	
Existing	211			224	7	
Change	         -5			        5
Post Elec       206			229    12	
Vulnerable GOP		        Vulnerable Dem		
Riley (AL open)	1 0.510	        Skeen (NM open) 1  0.490
Arizona (new)	1 0.510	        Morella (MD)	1  0.490
FL (Thurman)	1 0.510	        Matheson (Utah)	1  0.450
Sununu (NH open)1 0.510	        Georgia 3rd	1  0.450
So Dak (open)	1 0.510	        Colo 7th (new)	1  0.450
Indiana (Roemer)1 0.525	        Maine 2nd(open) 1  0.450
Johnson (Conn)	1 0.525	        Boswell (Iowa)	1  0.300
Nevada (new)	1 0.525	        4th CD (TN open)1  0.300
Luther (MN 2nd)	1 0.550	        Georgia 11th	1  0.300
Hayes (N.C.)	1 0.550	        Pomeroy (N.D.)	1  0.300
Simmons (Conn)	1 0.600	        Hoeffel (Penn)	1  0.300
Penn (6th)(open)1 0.600	        Condit (Calif)	1  0.300
Nussle (Iowa)	1 0.600	        Moore (Kansas)	1  0.300
Iowa (Latham)   1 0.625			
Penn (Gekas)	1 0.650			
W.V. (Capito)   1 0.700			
KY (Northrup)	1 0.700			
New Jersey (5th)1 0.700			
PA(Toomey)(15th)1 0.700			
Mich(Open)(11th)1 0.700			
Mich(Open)(10h)	1 0.700			
Iowa (Leach)    1 0.700			
Total	        22 13.200		       13  4.880
			Gain			Gain
Existing		211			224	
Net Change	         -5                   	  5
                        206                     229
Best Dem	        228	17		207 -17
Best GOP		193    -18		242  18
				      R toss +  R Toss -
Toss net				4.880	-8.800
Net Toss	                                -3.920
Existing		211		 224	 0
Predicted		209.92	-1.08    225.08  1.08

[crasher]

Another small thing, is that I think Hoeffel has a much better than 70% chance of winning reelection. I think it is better than 90% now. A pubbie poll has Brown down by 16.

[Torie]

AZ is an enigma within a mystery. Your ability to parse it shows just how able a chap you are. The Pubbie is behind in the polls in the very marginal Skeen district, and the Dem is something of a "Torie" Dem. I don't have a positive feeling about that race. On the other hand, I feel a bit better about the Colorado 7th than I did.

[Torie]

I was unaware of that poll. You are correct. The Pubbie is a great candidate for the district, but well, whatever. I will wait a bit to see how the TV ads affect the polls, but I probably should delete it. Where did you see the poll?

[BoomerBob]

I completely understand your reluctance via the 2000 vote. I posted a couple of days ago a Tarrance (R) poll that shows an 8 point lead for the GOP. Bear in mind that this is an internal poll that was not released to the press so its something more than a typical, partisan poll.

The 7th CD is my district so I'm following it rather closely. My reasons for giving the race a GOP lean are a significant money advantage by the GOP, a pending visit by GWB in the latter part of this month, no Dem coattails in the state to drive turnout and of course, as you saw on C-Span, the GOP candidate is much more appealing in appearance and delivery.

The voter registration in the district is roughly a third Dem, a third GOP and a third independent (I don't have the numbers in front of me but I believe the Dem registration outnumbered the GOP by only one or two percentage points.)

I'm watching for any polling data out of the Dem camp on this race but the lack thereof makes me suspicious that their internals show their candidate down as well.

BB

[crasher]

It was on Politicspa probably a month ago, maybe more. I can't give you a link unfortunately. But if my memory is right, it was 48-32.

In NM, I think the most recent ATR had a GOP poll showing Pearce up 9. A previous GOP poll had us up 6. Now here's where it gets confusing. Roll Call is now saying that a Democratic poll had us down 5 (38-33). But when I first read about this poll (probably on political insider), it was reported as an independent poll. So I don't know who to believe. But either way, the polling evidence at worst shows Pearce is basically tied. And that's enough to convince me that Pearce has at least the slight edge, given that the district is pretty conservative.

[crasher]

You give the GOP the edge in 229. I give them the edge in 226. Here's where we disagree. I give the GOP the edge in NM. I don't give them the edge in AZ, MN (Luther), NH (Sununu), and FL (Thurman).

I'm also a lot more worried about IN (Roemer). The Dems put out a poll showing us down 9. Our poll showing us up by 17 is very old, and we have not released a new one to my knowledge. I am very close to giving the Dems the edge here.

[crasher]

2 more things: My list would include LA-05 (OPEN) and TX-05 (OPEN).

I'm also curious about your thought on KY (Lucas). What's your reasoning on him not meeting the 30% barrier.

[Torie]

Yes, the Indiana seat is iffy. We need an independent poll. Thurman is my pet project. She will remain so until I see a credible poll suggesting otherwise. Both candidates have loads of money. The moderate Pubbie Bradley is slighty ahead in the Sununu district, and if he wins, it should be a bit safer against a Leftie Dem, particulary if Sununu take out Smith, which now seems probable. I won't lift Luther from the living dead until I see an independent poll, or some intelligent commentary about the place. And as you know, this is one district which I know quite well.

The Skeen district poll you cited shocks me.

[Torie]

Does Lucas have a creditable opponent, and how much money does he have? Lucas says he is running for his last term. I doubt that this DIMO will be bounced.

[crasher]

New Mexico

---

GOP Poll Gives Pearce Lead in Skeen Seat

A new poll taken for the campaign of former state Rep. Steve Pearce (R) showed him with a 9-point lead over state Sen. John Arthur Smith (D) in their race to replace retiring Rep. Joe Skeen (R) in the 2nd district.
The survey showed Pearce leading Smith 44 percent to 35 percent with 21 percent of respondents undecided. The poll of 400 likely voters, conducted by McLean, Va.-based Wilson Research Strategies, was in the field Aug. 27-29 and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent.

Among registered Republicans, the poll showed Pearce leading Smith 71 percent to 8 percent. Among Democrats, Smith tallied 55 percent to Pearce's 25 percent while Independents went for Pearce, 41 percent to 33 percent.

A July Democratic poll showed Smith with a 5-point lead, while a GOP poll taken a month earlier had Pearce leading by 6 points.

Democrats hold a slight registration edge in the district, and both parties believe the race will be among the tightest in the country this November.

[Torie]

I don't consider the other two in play. Never have, and never will, particularly the Louisiana 5th, where life politically is so polarized. I haven't seen a pundit suggest yet that the Texas 5th is in play. I think CQ has it likely GOP, although I could be wrong.

[crasher]

At one point, Lucas was actually being outraised by his opponent. He has money, and raised about $250,000 through that one FEC period I'm thinking of that ended a while ago. He is credible. Obviously he is the underdog, but I'm just not sure by how much.

[Nonstatist]

The Democratic primary in the MD-2nd is next Tues and Ruppersberger (the fav) is running scared against Bengur (an unknown) and throwing out a lot of mailings recently. My guess is his internal polling is showing it close. If he goes down or the race is real close, I would say Bentley may have a real shot.

[Torie]

Maybe Rupples losing the primary will help the Dem cause. What do you think?

[Nonstatist]

Maybe, but Bengur has zero name recognition and Bentley, although she's about 110 years old, does. The blue collar Baltimore suburbs can surprise, you know.It turns out Gov. Spendenning is leaving the State with a billion dollar defecit; maybe this will have some effect. Then again, maybe not.

[Torie]

We have a 25 billion dollar deficit here in California. Your governor did a great job I think. :)

[Nonstatist]

LOL. And with 10 % the number of people, maybe he deserves a medal. Of course, Davis is running against the only guy he could possibly beat, while Glendening's heir might have her hands full. If only there was 1 opposition newspaper in the State.... Alas, there isnt.

[Torie]

Gore won Staten Island by maybe 4%. :)