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I was unaware of that poll. You are correct. The Pubbie is a great candidate for the district, but well, whatever. I will wait a bit to see how the TV ads affect the polls, but I probably should delete it. Where did you see the poll?

It was on Politicspa probably a month ago, maybe more. I can't give you a link unfortunately. But if my memory is right, it was 48-32.

In NM, I think the most recent ATR had a GOP poll showing Pearce up 9. A previous GOP poll had us up 6. Now here's where it gets confusing. Roll Call is now saying that a Democratic poll had us down 5 (38-33). But when I first read about this poll (probably on political insider), it was reported as an independent poll. So I don't know who to believe. But either way, the polling evidence at worst shows Pearce is basically tied. And that's enough to convince me that Pearce has at least the slight edge, given that the district is pretty conservative.

2 more things: My list would include LA-05 (OPEN) and TX-05 (OPEN).

I'm also curious about your thought on KY (Lucas). What's your reasoning on him not meeting the 30% barrier.