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Posted on 04/28/2002 7:22:06 AM PDT by dalereed
CALIFORNIA
Davis has 14-point lead, poll finds
By John Marelius
STAFF WRITER
April 28, 2002
Gov. Gray Davis, although still not held in high regard by California voters, has opened a 14-point re-election lead over his Republican challenger, Bill Simon.
In the first nonpartisan measurement of the campaign for California governor since the March 5 primary election, the Field Poll shows there is little enthusiasm for either major-party nominee.
It also shows the initial view of Simon as the Republican nominee is predominantly negative despite his stunning come-from-behind landslide victory over former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan last month.
"He's not had a very good period following the primary," said Mark DiCamillo, associate director of the Field Poll. "Usually, after you've won a primary there's sort of a halo effect. Simon appears not to have had a victory bounce. He's lost ground."
The statewide survey of voters considered likely to cast ballots in the Nov. 5 election shows Davis leading Simon 43 percent to 29 percent with 28 percent undecided or favoring other candidates.
In a late-February Field Poll, a hypothetical general election matchup showed Simon, a wealthy Los Angeles businessman who has never before run for office, leading Davis 44 percent to 42 percent.
The news is by no means all good for Davis, a Democrat. Fifty percent of the likely voters have an unfavorable view of the governor; 39 percent regard him favorably.
Pollsters often gauge an officeholder's vulnerability by asking voters whether they are inclined or not inclined to vote for the incumbent.
On that score, Davis' numbers have improved. In February, 54 percent said they were not inclined to vote for him, while 39 percent said they were.
Now it is virtually even: 46 percent inclined to vote for Davis to 47 percent not.
Perceptions of Simon have grown more negative since the primary.
DiCamillo said Democrats who may have paid little attention to the Republican primary campaign have begun taking the measure of Simon and finding him wanting.
"The Democrats who have come to judgment in the last seven weeks have almost universally gone to an unfavorable view of Simon," DiCamillo said.
The Field Poll looked better for Davis than several polls by private organizations floating around Sacramento, and the governor's campaign reacted cautiously.
"It's always good to be ahead, but there are going to be a lot of ups and downs in this campaign," said Davis campaign spokesman Roger Salazar. "But we've always said that when they look at the issues, people are going to realize that Bill Simon is not an acceptable choice."
Simon campaign manager Sal Russo said his candidate grew on Republicans as the primary campaign wore on, and he predicted the public at large would similarly warm up to him.
"These elections are referendums on the governor," Russo said. "And the fact that (Davis) is at 43 percent has got to be as low as any governor in history. Just as in the primary, as voters get to know Bill Simon, they will rally to his side."
The Field Poll is based on telephone interviews conducted April 19 through Thursday with 546 likely voters. The poll is considered statistically accurate 95 percent of the time within a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.
Copyright 2002 Union-Tribune Publishing Co.
At any rate, you still have yet to explain how 95%+ of the population can be the "middle class"
Oh wait, I know, you're full of crap...
See: http://taxfoundation.org/sr109.pdf
Who cares what the people making under 30,000 are paying in Social Security taxes, that's their trust fund for retirment right? In theory they'll get all that and more back right? It shouldn't really count as a tax then right?
What about the middle class ($30m - $200m)?
At any rate, you still have yet to explain how 95%+ of the population can be the "middle class"
I never said 95% of the population is middle class.
My "guess" would be about 80% (understand there are various definitions of middle class, some having nothing to do with income).
Oh wait, I know, you're full of crap...
Whose full of crap now?
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calgov2002:
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Therefore, it is YOU that has declared that the "middle class" is at least 95% of the population because at least 95% of the population falls within the parameters you have set
I have one last question for you, is your mental state the result of a lightning strike, cousins marrying or the American public school system?
To: Interested Parties
From: Sal Russo
Date: 4/27/02
RE: Field Poll Shows Incumbent Governor Davis In Trouble Just As Poor Among Women (43%) As Among Men (43%)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------- Davis is Among the Most Vulnerable Incumbent Governors in the Nation
The statewide Field Poll of only 546 self-described registered and likely voters (not proven likely voters) that is in newspapers today shows a very distorted picture of the election for Governor. While it clearly highlights that Governor Davis is in big trouble, the flawed methodology of the Field Poll shows much of the anti-Davis vote in the undecided category. Do not be distracted by the ballot test comparing Gray Davis and Bill Simon - the real news in this poll is that Gray Davis continues to languish well below 50%, a danger sign for incumbents. In fact, even according to Field, 57% of voters - who all have heard of Gray Davis - will not vote for his re-election.
-- "Davis backers viewed the new information with caution, perhaps reflecting internal Democratic polls that show the race much closer than the Field Poll suggests." (San Jose Mercury News)
-- "The Field Poll looked better for Davis than several polls by private organizations floating around Sacramento, and the governor's campaign reacted cautiously. " (San Diego Union-Tribune)
Noted political analyst Stuart Rothenberg declared earlier in the month on CNN:
-- "I don't want to argue on whether or not Gray Davis has done a good job or a bad job. I just want to look at the numbers. And the numbers say he has done a terrible job. His numbers stink. This is a guy with awful reelect numbers, also job approval. And he's losing to a guy who has enough never run for office before on a ballot test."
[Note that Rothenberg is aware of and believes the private polls showing Simon ahead]
The Field Poll's different sampling techniques yield results that stand in stark contrast to every other poll since the March 5 primary. There have been at least five professional polls taken privately since the primary election -- which show Davis in the high 30's/low 40's and have Bill Simon winning in each instance.
-- The Field Poll is different from professional campaign polls because Field calls all California residents randomly and asks them if they are registered to vote and if they are likely to vote. This samples too large a group of voters - including many voters who will never vote and have not been paying attention to the race. Most professional polls exclude these unlikely voters until they express some greater sentiment for voting. In addition, casual voters will tend to forget who the challenger is and default to undecided against an incumbent they know and dislike.
The poll further confirms suspicions that career politician and incumbent Governor Gray Davis, whose Administration has been rocked by energy, education and budget failures, continues to see his re-election prospects rejected by Californians. Governors who poll less than 50% in polls after the primary almost always lose. Despite the methodological bias in the Field Poll, it shows that we are in an excellent position to overtake Davis once our advertising campaign begins.
Davis tax attacks fail: By a margin of 51% to 44%, Californians say Simon doesn't need to make his tax returns public. 60% said Simon's refusal would have no effect on the way they vote, and more believe Simon when he says he paid substantial taxes.
Davis wedge issue attacks fail: Despite Davis' efforts to change the subject away from his failed leadership and toward divisive wedge issues, Davis suffers equally low re-election scores among both men and women. 57% percent of both sexes refuse to vote for Davis for re-election.
Every publicly released poll of likely voters shows Bill Simon leading the incumbent Governor.
-- The political polling firm, Public Opinion Strategies Inc. (POS), revealed Bill Simon leads Gray Davis 48% to 41% among registered voters. These results were later confirmed in an April survey by another independent poll conducted by Probolsky & Associates Opinion Research, showing Davis attracting the support of less than 38% of voters; Simon garnered the support of 44% in the poll.
-- Even organizations that traditionally favor Democrats are finding that Simon is leading. A poll of voters making the rounds in Sacramento in recent days commissioned by a large labor organization that has endorsed Governor Davis shows Simon leading Davis 41%-37%.
An incumbent posting a ballot score below 50% is considered highly vulnerable. Here are the last four public polls showing Davis in big trouble:
Public Opinion Strategies: 41%
Probolsky and Associates: 38%
Labor Union: 37%
Field Poll: 43%
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95% of households do not fall within $30m - $200m annual earned income.
Sure, I'd like to Simon kick ole Red's butt as much as any other FReeper (except Tucobad, that is). However, Davis is getting desparate and he is going to show his utterly contemptable, and elitist behavior to the nation. Liberals get real funny when their backs are to the wall. Then there's the inevitable, and blantant voter fraud that will happen during the election. This alone could bring the legislation we need after this election is over. The investigations should prove very enlightening!
I guess I think it's entertaining because I live in Minnesota, our Gov. is a joke anyway, but he's not near as dangerous as Davis. Again, for the sake of my brother Cal. FReepers I'm rooting for Simon, but if Davis frauds off the election and wins there is no doubt in my mind that he WILL break California and there will be scandals, and maybe even an impeachment. Either way, I think that California needs to try to right the Davis Administration wrongs with Simon, or simply let the system totally collapse and build it back anew. Either way, it will be a huge defeat for the RATS!
My $2 (adjusting for Cal. inflation under the RAT regime).
Timy!
It's a crock if you know what the pressholes (aka. the DEMs politcal agenda machine) use the Field Poll for.
nuff said...
I'm not sure about that.
D
Democrats should be rooting against Gray Davis. Why? Because whoever wins this election will get blamed for bankrupting California. All the debt and various problems have been delayed and delayed so much that the day of reckoning won't come until well into the NEXT term.
You can say that about any state, especially New York/Pataki.
Probably something like 65% of all households fall in the $30,000 to $2M range. - Freedom_Is_Not_Free
Do you realize your statement affirms my statement?
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