Companies Are Hiring Like It's 2009

Investopedia ^ | 10/21/2025 | Diccon Hyatt

[SeekAndFind]

Key Takeaways

• Hiring by U.S. employers has slowed to a crawl, according to recent data from Vanguard.
  
• The job creation rate is at its slowest sustained pace since 2009, when the U.S. was in a recession.
  
• Vanguard's report is one of a handful of privately created data sources available in the absence of government reports that have been delayed by the shutdown.
  

The last time job growth was as slow as it is now, Boom Boom Pow by the Black Eyed Peas was at the top of the charts, a Bitcoin cost a quarter of a cent, and Donald Trump was best known as the host of a game show.

Vanguard data found the U.S. job growth rate was just 0.1% in seven of the first nine months of 2025—an ominous sign, as the last time job growth was that slow for a sustained period was during the Great Recession in 2009. That's less than a third of the recent job growth peak of 0.36% in 2022.

What This Means For The Economy

Vanguard's data highlights the job market's uneasy balance: job creation is slow, but there haven't been any waves of mass layoffs. Officials at the Federal Reserve view the job market as increasingly fragile and are expected to cut interest rates to support job growth and prevent a severe increase in unemployment.

Vanguard's data is one of a handful of reports on the job market created by private companies, which are still being published in the absence of official figures from the government that are being delayed by the ongoing shutdown.

Vanguard's data reinforces recent findings indicating a "low hire, low fire" job market in an uneasy equilibrium. Many employers remain reluctant to either expand or reduce their workforces as they contend with the economic policies of the White House, particularly tariffs and a crackdown on immigration, according to recent surveys.

The slow rate of job creation is bad news for anyone currently looking for work, but the labor market isn't yet in crisis. Unlike the early 2000s, people who currently have jobs can count on relatively stable employment, according to Vanguard.

"Hiring has slowed, but low layoff rates and solid income growth point to a labor market that remains strong for those currently employed," the company said in a blog post.

Article Sources

1. Vanguard. "Data show labor market strength despite slower hiring."

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TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: jobs; stargateinitiative; unemployment

[SeekAndFind]

The bigger worry is what’s coming next.

Companies from Amazon and JPMorgan to Ford, Salesforce, and Walmart have all said AI will replace a significant share of white-collar work.

Goldman Sachs estimates that 6–7% of jobs could eventually disappear, while Stanford researchers say entry-level hiring in AI-related fields has already dropped 13%.

Meanwhile, Gad Levanon of the Burning Glass Institute calls it the start of a “multi-decade transformation” of the labor market.

On the bright side, sectors like construction and healthcare may prove more resilient, but many desk jobs look increasingly vulnerable.

BLS labor data will be key to tracking the aftershocks in the economy. The irony is that data isn’t even being published right now.

[shelterguy]

Learn to wire.

[Deaf Smith]

“since 2009, when the US was in a recession”

No, we were taking the the full force of Obama Care.

Everytime Hussein went on TV to talk Oboma Care, people got laid off the next day.

[ClearCase_guy]

I still say that most of the jobs that were sent home during COVID are extremely vulnerable to AI. People who worked in cubicles filling out spreadsheets or processing electronic paperwork just went home and kept doing the same thing at their kitchen table. That work can be automated and done without people. That’s a lot of jobs that can evaporate in the near future.

And driverless cars seem to be moving forward. I saw a lot of Waymo cars in Phoenix recently. Think of the truckers and the Amazon/Fedex/UPS delivery guys. That’s a ton of jobs. If that work can be automated it will impact many people.

People need to think about what happens to society when a big percentage of the population no longer contributes to the national economy. Universal Basic Income? Will people sit quietly at home and write poetry? Or will they take to the streets just to liven up their day?

[wally_bert]

I’m a tad color blind.

[quantim]

Doubt that the problem is private companies, the real problem is that gummit spends about $70,000 over budget every SECOND that is piled on the debt.

Almost a $1,000,000,000 a year in interest brought to you by the uniparty? Start there.

[Theoria]

The entire point of innovation and tech is to get rid of the inefficient human worker. That's the entire point of tech bros and large multinational companies joining hands with the admin. All those data-centers aren't there to create massive human labor, but to become more efficient and provide for less. The costs on society are irrelevant to them and the parties in power.

[Uncle Miltie]

When you deport and self-deport over a million people, there may be fewer employed people.

[Bronzy]

Hubby and I will work for cash paid labor. Enough to pay our property taxes and eat.

[central_va]

Halt all work visas now.

[central_va]

Where were all of these lamentations when factories and blue collar jobs were OFFSHORED? A lot of friggin hypocrisy here.

[central_va]

What the hell are you implying?

[JeemBeau]

Interest on the federal government debt in a year is more like one trillion, $1,000,000,000,000, not one billion, $1,000,000,000.

[voicereason]

My understanding is that the 1st half of the year, without data centers GDP would have been less than 1%.

Given the cuts in government employees, and now this hiring data, what happens when there is enough data centers capacity? I’ve seen estimates of a $1 billion to construct a data center. That’s a lot of dollars per unit, and a lot of upstream suppliers and workers getting paid.

[No.6]

If past C-suite stupidity is any guide, they’ll fire in favor of AI promises, the better to look for the quarterly results, and then bail out for “new opportunities” before the downsides of over reliance on GenAI and Agentic AI hit.

There’s value in these tools, but not that much. I’d peg it as a force multiplier but not a replacement, and the more experienced the person the less able this tool is to co-opt their strengths.

[grey_whiskers]

When you deport and self-deport over a million people, there may be fewer employed people.

First intelligent comment on the thread, thank you.

[Tell It Right]

Learn to eat kudzu. In the south we’d never starve. LOL

[MayflowerMadam]

I saw a guy on local TV giving recipes for using kudzu. I’d try it.

[Lazamataz]

Learn to nurse.