For a couple years now I haven’t been able to figure out who’s winning. It changes every week but then again I could care less since it’s a European problem.
I’ve said from the beginning that the only thing I’m sure of is lies from all the sides, and there are a lot more than two.
Everything depends on how you define the word "win".
Ukraine wins by surviving.
Russia wins by taking more Ukraine territory.
Nobody wins with huge numbers of casualties and massive property destruction.
Since mid-2022, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been a First World War style stalemate.
World War One took millions of lives and ended after four years of stalemate when, suddenly, the German economy and military machine collapsed.
Unfortunately, in 1918 the Western Allies were too exhausted to thoroughly defeat Germany, and so their peace treaty of 1919 helped set the stage for Round Two in 1939.
As for whose problem is it, Ukraine is bordered by four NATO countries, with three more nearby Baltic countries equally threatened by Russkiy Mir revanchism.
So, sure, Ukraine is Europe's problem, but Europe (NATO) is our alliance, and Russian threats to NATO are also threats to us.
Bottom line: no way to guess today how the war in Ukraine will end, though we can all pray God will bless Pres. Trump's efforts to find a lasting peace there.
No one is winning. Everyone is losing in this game except maybe China.
Ukraine is devastated, but the alternative was - if they hadn’t fought back in March 2022, they would be assimilated into the Russian federation. If Putin had grabbed Kyiv in 2014, no one would have done anything and Ukraine would have no capability to push back then (it didn’t).
Russia has lost men, money and prestige AND they have created and boosted the Ukrainian sense of identity.
Prior to 2014, Ukrainian national identity was either non-existent or very weak. People felt more “local patriotic” i.e. they were “Tutajsi” (from here) - meaning Kharkiv, Donetsk etc. local patriots and they didn’t feel Ukrainian or Russian. That changed in 2014 and went supersonic in March 2022.
I know of 3 people who are from eastern Ukraine, are native Russian speakers and who have grandparents or parents who came from what is now the Russian federation. But they feel Ukrainian now and they have sworn off speaking Russian.
Putin created that. Putin destroyed any chances of Ukraine being assimilated into Russia by creating a national mythology of resistance to the Kremlin.
Napoleon did this to Germany and the Brits did it to the USA and to India.
So even if Russia grabs ALL of Ukraine, they have lost the battle - every single Ukraine feels “Ukrainian” now - thanks to Putin.
If, in Feb 2022, Putin hadn’t invaded, but just stood, then NATO would have whimpered and in a few years Z would have been voted out, and Ukraine would be slowly assimilated into the Rossiski mir. But hubris got the better of him
EVERYBODY would have won if Ukraine didn't STUPIDLY listen to Boris Johnson about a month after the war started in 2022. They had a peace deal worked out and then Boris Johnson told Ukraine to nix the deal because NATO would supply them with all the weapons they need. So they backed out of the deal and now Ukraine in whatever is the outcome, will not get nearly as much as they would have in 2022 and both Ukraine and Russia ended up several hundred thousand of their citizens fewer due to being killed.