Posted on 10/18/2025 9:43:44 AM PDT by DFG
The shutdown became one of the three longest in U.S. history on Friday, with lawmakers indicating they believe it will drag on and few signs emerging of progress toward reopening the government.
That isn’t stopping questions about what could force lawmakers toward the negotiating table to figure out a resolution, especially with a number of potential pressure points front and center for lawmakers in the coming weeks.
Here are some key dates to keep an eye on in the coming weeks that could force action.
Oct. 24: Next paycheck for federal employees
Government employees — whether they are furloughed or working through the shutdown — are set to miss their first full paycheck on Oct. 24, raising the pressure on lawmakers to act.
The federal workers also received only a partial paycheck earlier this month, putting an extensive strain on the more than 2 million such employees and their families.
The issue is front of mind for some lawmakers, especially in states that feature a higher percentage of federal workers than others.
“It’s a factor,” Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said.
He noted a 2019 law that guarantees back pay, but acknowledged, “That is not the same as getting your paycheck on the day you’re entitled to it, obviously, and people have tuition to pay and rent and all of that.”
Additionally, a memo earlier this month from the White House budget office argued that federal workers may not be entitled to back pay.
A closely watched group of government employees is air traffic controllers, of which more than 10,000 are working without pay. A “sick-out” among air traffic controllers is widely seen as a tipping point toward ending the longest shutdown in history in 2019, and absences among controllers this time around could cause headaches for air travel and the wider economy.
One controller told NewsNation on Wednesday that they are working as a delivery driver to help pay for their daughter’s tuition amid the impasse.
In addition to the pain government workers and their families will feel, the effects could trickle down into the surrounding communities as they cut back on spending. That, in turn, could put a strain on the grocery stores, coffee shops, restaurants and retail establishments that rely on their business.
Lawmakers are taking steps to alleviate the pressure.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) told reporters on Thursday that he is planning to hold a vote on a bill by Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) that would pay “excepted” employees, meaning federal workers who have to keep working despite the funding lapse.
But that bill, even if it passes, wouldn’t help furloughed workers. And it is far from certain that Democrats would allow it to advance, or that the House would return to Washington to take it up.
Oct. 31: Next military paycheck
Trump administration officials sidestepped one landmine this week when they dug up $8 billion of unused research development funds from fiscal year 2025 in order to pay 1.3 million active duty service members, ensuring they didn’t miss their Oct. 15 paychecks.
Whether they’re able to do it again come Halloween is another question.
Lawmakers are already eyeing that date as they cast doubt on whether a similar move by the administration is possible.
“That option is not going to be available in two weeks for their next paycheck,” House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Ala.) told reporters on Friday.
This is where Congress could step in, despite deciding against doing so ahead of the Oct. 15 payday for the armed forces.
The bill Thune is planning to move on the floor in the coming days to pay “excepted” workers also applies to service members.
“I’m sure we’ll be looking at potential options. We’re going to give them a chance to pay the military next week.” Thune said. “That will be the first opportunity and then we’ll see from there.”
Oct. 31 and Nov. 5: Congressional staffer paychecks
These are lower on the totem pole in the eyes of lawmakers, but they nonetheless hit close to home as the staffers they work closely with each day are in the dark on when they will get paid again — and some might not receive a check for the foreseeable future.
Senate aides are the first of the group to get hit as they will miss their first full paycheck on Monday, with lawmakers already missing a chance to avoid that.
Notably, staffers in the two chambers are paid out differently. The Senate’s are paid twice monthly — on the fifth and 20th.
House of Representatives aides are paid once per month, though, with that coming at the end of every month. That means that if House staffers don’t get paid at the end of October, they will not receive their next check until after Thanksgiving.
The House pay cycle has raised questions for quite some time, but with the chamber out of session for a month, there is little lawmakers can do about that. House GOP leadership has also argued that they have done their job by passing the “clean” continuing resolution.
“Rent is due on the first,” one House Democratic aide said, pointing to the unusual nature of the House pay schedule. “Literally nobody else does this.”
Nov. 1: Affordable Care Act open enrollment
This is perhaps the most important date of any listed here.
Health care is the driving force behind the entire shutdown, with Democrats intent to heap pressure on Republicans to come to the table on enhanced ObamaCare subsidies before open enrollment starts.
Republicans argue that the enhanced credits don’t expire until the end of the year, but Democrats have made clear that they see the start of open enrollment, when Americans using the ObamaCare marketplaces will start shopping for 2026 coverage, as the key date.
Absent congressional action, their premiums are set to increase precipitously.
“The American people are facing one of the most devastating crises they have faced in terms of cost, and we still have not heard crickets out of any negotiation with [Speaker Mike Johnson] or with [Senate Majority Leader John Thune],” Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said at a press event on Thursday. “The Republicans are on the defensive, they keep changing their stories and changing their arguments, but we are on the side of the American people.”
State exchanges and insurers are already sending notices out to enrollees explaining what’s coming down the line in the coming weeks and months. And state insurance officials are already saying it’s too late to alter the pricing before Nov. 1.
Republicans believe that getting past Nov. 1 will be key for them to get a deal as it will zap Democrats of much of their leverage.
However, Democrats do not share that view, saying pressure will only increase on the majority party the longer nothing gets done on the health care front and as Americans see how much they will pay for health insurance.
“It’s still not possible to stop the full impact of the rate increases after Nov. 1,” Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.) told Punchbowl News last week. “If we don’t deal with this before Nov. 1, it becomes trickier to solve legislatively, but the heat gets turned way up by the public to do something.”
Nov. 21: Week of Thanksgiving
Thanksgiving is more than a month away, but with no obvious off-ramps and early speculation that the shutdown could last several more weeks, the idea of it going until late November is not out of the question.
That brings into play what could be a perfect storm for Americans: a shortage of TSA workers and continued problems on the air-traffic control front during Thanksgiving week — one of the two biggest travel stretches of the year.
That is a nightmare for lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, who still remember the air-traffic control mayhem in early 2019 that forced Trump and members to reopen the government and bring to an end the 35-day shutdown, the longest in U.S. history.
Those problems coupled with the prospect of Thanksgiving holiday travel and air-traffic controllers who would have gone without pay for roughly a month may be a bridge too far for members. Under this scenario, they would likely have until the Friday before the holiday to find a deal before the intense travel starts in earnest.
“[O]ne of the many consequences of the Schumer shutdown is that we are seeing, and will continue to see, even more delays for travel,” Senate Commerce Committee Chair Ted Cruz (R-Texas) told The Hill. “Thanksgiving week is the biggest travel time of the year. If the Democrats are irresponsible enough to be trying to force air-traffic controllers and TSA to work without paychecks through Thanksgiving, the traveling public would pay the price.”
“At some point, sanity will return to at least some small sliver of Democrats and the lights will be turned back on,” Cruz continued. “But damned if I know when.”
Oct. 24: Next paycheck for federal employees
Oct. 31: Next military paycheck
Oct. 31 and Nov. 5: Congressional staffer paychecks
Nov. 1: Affordable Care Act open enrollment
Nov. 21: Week of Thanksgiving
November 1 Obama care is already here because the CT exchange sent me a letter saying our cost may be higher.
Can you enlighten me?
Is there any deadline?
Any time when this will end regardless of what Schumer does?
When new, permanent budget of BBB kicks in?
I have no idea, please, help!
The CR is supposed to run out around Nov 21, so a shutdown lasting that long means everything has to start over again.
There is a side story that I just can’t comprehend
Caesars 2nd highest casino outside of Vegas decided to unionize. They got the votes. then shut down happened. the nlrb can’t certify the election. Caesars wont allow an independent party to certify.
They walked off the job yesterday. I saw a video that I can’t find now that appeared like some of the dealers didnt even lock up the money but that doesnt seem likely
I didnt know you could go on a strike before you even unionize.
And what in the world is Caesars thinking. Losing a ton of money for something that seems inevitable when the government opens.
Its so bizarre.
It’s just another stupid political purse fight!
Why can’t we elect competent people to office? Oh never mind. We get the government we deserve.
We need a REAL budget. No more CR stuff. Let’s get serious.
No mention in this article about after the No Kings march.
Is the nuclear option on the table ?
There’s a FedGov shutdown? Who knew?
I like Thune’s idea of a separate billl just to pay the military. Force the Dems to vote no on that.
I am predicting this week sometime. The Klatifag and other Marxist rabble “No Kings” rally will be over today.
Do this, make the Dems vote no, then use that vote to nuke the filibuster.
I see congressional staffers get their own line item. The Hill knows who its real constituents are.
It has been 28 years since congress passed a budget (1997). CR’s should be illegal.
The article does not mention Nov 4, election day.
I would expect that there is pressure to grand stand with media events for election day that could be pressure for action.
Agree!
Should be unconstitutional!
Nov 5 - results of elections in VA & NJ.
The shutdown will end when majority leader Thune proposes to end filibusters.
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