Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

Threat Level upgraded to WARNING due to increased potential for more leftist attacks on conservative mouthpieces and advocates following Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

UPCOMING -
- Kirk memorial service, Phoenix AZ Sunday
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Phoenix this weekend may be volatile as dignitaries arrive for the Charlie Kirk memorial service this Sunday.

***
CEOs of Discord, Steam, Twitch, and Reddit requested to testify before Congress on political radicalization of their platforms after Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

OBSERVATION - Note, only a ‘request’ at this time.

***
Photos of Elizabeth Warren with Ermiya Fanaeian, leader of the SLC armed queers which is now under FBI investigation for a possible connection to Charlie’s m*rder

OBSERVATION - Evidence that Fanaeian carries significant clout among democrat leftists and expanding connections with her operations to expand and develop a Transtifa terrorist network in Utah.

***
LOTS OF ANTIFA STUFF TODAY -

Trump has designated Antifa as major Terrorist Organization and calls for investigation of funders. He further stated that he would “strongly recommend that those who fund Antifa be thoroughly investigated in accordance with the highest legal standards and procedures.”

OBSERVATION - This a huge step forward in combating this scum. Two pronged attack - arresting the foot soldiers and going after the funding, most likely via RICO. As this moves forward, we may see an increase in Antifa attacks in response.

***
“Expect a lot of liberal and left-wing media propaganda the next few days about Antifa. They will say the movement doesn’t organize into groups and that those involved are peaceful, racial justice activists simply opposed to fascism.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1968516635926405242?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

“Lying figures in the media will also claim that Antifa is a myth and a figment of imagination of the far-right. The people who were maimed and killed, the buildings that were torched — did it to themselves.
We’ve had nearly a decade of these lies.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1968536319837065604?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Ngo is the undisputed expert on Antifa and has been tried by fire. He is correct, remember that democrats in congress provided cover for them by essentially saying Antifa is a though, not a physical movement. Those days are gone.

***
The Antifa cell in Corvallis, Ore. has published an after-action report on the fallout from Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

They admit fearing the loss of their ability to mark conservatives for death with no pushback — especially as some apolitical institutions, groups and businesses now feel safer expressing sympathy to Kirk’s family and supporters.

They also concede that attacks on @seanfeucht’s Christian worship events have been a PR disaster, with cameras showing masked Antifa militants assaulting families and children at those events.

To counter a possible cultural shift away from their dehumanization tactics that are mainstream on the left, Antifa suggest exploiting divisions on the right to divide and conquer. They suggest using Israel as the wedge issue.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1968395924591280445?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - With Trump back, federal prosecution of Antifa thugs has also significantly increased, something they hadn’t experienced over the past decade. This PR crash is particularly critical outside of the historic Antifa strongholds like Portland and Seattle.

***
“American Antifa are almost an entirely domestic network, but they do maintain links with Antifa in Canada and Europe. Secretary of State @SecRubio @marcorubio should consider declaring the international manifestations of Antifa as foreign terrorist entities to the U.S. government. “

“In 2021, German Antifa took over Leipzig’s city center and then carried out mass attacks on the public to try to intimidate judges and prosecutors handling a criminal case involving their violent members. They do the same in France and other countries.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1968521320691380320?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

***
Patriot Front activists demonstrated in Orem, Utah in response to the assassination of Charlie Kirk. Members placed banners around the city calling attention to the incident, and gave an address near Utah Valley University.

OBSERVATION - WTH. Conspiracy theorists say these are feds. If so, how are they operating with the current Trump administration and its crackdowns? biden like using them as boogymen.

***
On the culture war side of CW2, Jimmy Kimmel had his show pulled over his comments about Kirk’s murderer being “MAGA”. This is the second leftist late night talker that has been given the axe this month.

Leftists were shell shocked at the news, immediately claiming violations of the first amendment etc.

***
Leftists are still posting vile comments regarding Kirk and businesses are still firing them.

***
STATE OF THE CW2

There appears to me a developing trend, one a ‘cultural war’ equivalent and the second a kinetic aspect. Let me take the cultural war first

With the overwhelming response to leftist comments on Kirk, they for the first time have actually begun to feel consequences for their words. They have lost the high ground as well as the independent / moderate sectors of the country. Their recent “what about” defense has been equally diffused by the right absolutely refusing to play their game. Insurrection movements have to have a positive view from the population in order to sustain the darker, more violent aspects of their movement.

The more violent, nascent kinetic elements of the leftist moves have triggered the PR backlash noted above. It has also permitted Trump to go after Antifa / Transtifa with the force of US law - something they have not really experienced before. Patel will be their worst nightmare.

The violent left will soon have to face a critical decision point. One, back down and lower their profile until the storm passes or Two become even more militant and try to intimidate / threaten their way out.

The first choice is unlikely given their history, but their history doesn’t included facing real jail time as it does now.

The second choice IMHO is the likely one based on their history and established goals and means. While Kirk’s assassination has raised awareness on the middle and right, it has been further used to push the radical left even further to the left and towards violent action. As law enforcement actions move forward on these leftists and the groups they are affiliated with, the call to arms will grow, generating more individuals ready to pull the trigger.

Pulling back a bit, I’ve noted that in the quiet of the past few years, violent leftists have been busy. The organized attack on an ICE/DHS facility last July - by a group of ten individuals is a case in point. The attack—which included vandalism, fireworks, and gunfire—led to the arrest of eight individuals, some wearing body armor, and is being investigated as a coordinated assault on federal property.

The attackers, described as “heavily armed with military gear, guns, AR-15 style rifles, 12 sets of Kevlar bullet proof vests, masks, goggles, tactical gloves, two-way radios, and helmets,” also carried Faraday bags—devices that block wireless signals and can thwart law enforcement tracking efforts.

Antifa retains that capability and in addition to an assassination campaign, this level of assaults will likely not be limited to ICE or other federal targets.

The march to a CW2 scenario is shifting from that of the Floyd riot model to that of a more conventional gorilla war style action. The groups are forming - Antfa, SLC armed queers, Socialist Rifle Association and others. Arming and training. They cannot go force on force yet, but the assassination avenue is now an option to them.

Buckle up - this will get ugly.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced the first interest rate cut of the year as policymakers lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25-basis-points, as signs of a weakening labor force outweighed elevated inflation.

Following the central bank’s decision to cut rates for the first time since December 2024, the federal funds rate will sit at a new range of 4% to 4.25%. The cut comes after the Fed left rates unchanged at its first five meetings this year amid economic uncertainty.

OBSERVATION - It is unlikely that this decrease will significantly have any impacts to the economy in either the short or long term. Economists seeing that pressures from a weak job market and suppressed inflation will keep the pressure on the Fed for further reductions.

“The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point on Wednesday as officials signaled that two more cuts could follow this year in light of rising risks confronting the labor market.
The decision to lower borrowing costs for the first time since December shifts interest rates to a range of 4 percent to 4.25 percent. The decision was not unanimously supported, the second straight meeting that featured at least one dissent from a member of the Board of Governors.”

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/amy-curtis/2025/09/17/federal-reserve-cuts-interest-rates-n2663513

POLITICAL FRONT –

There’s some maneuvering taking place this week but it looks like the bottom line is we’re still heading for a government shutdown at the end of this month. Democrats have been making demands that Republicans agree to extend Obamacare subsidies in order to get enough votes to defeat a filibuster in the Senate. Today, Republicans said those demands would not be met.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said Democrats “have a choice to make” as the Sept. 30 deadline approaches. They can work with Republicans, Thune said, or “they can shut down the government with all that will mean for the American people.”…

“Democrats don’t want a shutdown, but Republicans cannot shut Democrats out of the process and pretend like the last nine months have been business as usual,” Schumer said.

https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/09/17/democrats-still-pushing-toward-a-government-shutdown-n3806911

OBSERVATION - Schumer has selective memory as when he was majority leader, Republicans were routinely shut out of the process. Schumer risks a great deal, appearing to cave in to more radical elements of his party, while nationally sentiment has swung towards republicans.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump continues meetings in London

***
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Trump’s job performance. Forty-nine percent (49%) disapprove.

This contrasts with a YouGov poll where 39 percent of surveyed Americans approve of Trump’s handling of the presidency, down from the 41 percent recorded over the last three weeks and 40 percent recorded in mid-August.

OBSERVATION - “It appears that YouGov polls adults rather than likely voters, a much broader demographic than Rasmussen respondents. . . . .the obvious purpose of the poll is to dampen enthusiasm for Trump and his Presidency, rather than an attempt to understand what motivates Americans during this transitional era.”

https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2025/09/trump-popularity.php#google_vignette

Illegal Immigration –

News has been suppressed to a degree with other news exploding on the scene.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 75 drones overnight, including over 40 Shaheds, from Kursk, Oryol, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukrainian air defenses downed or suppressed 48 of them across the north, east, and center. At least 26 drones hit targets in six locations.

Russian losses per 18/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+930 men
+2 tanks
+33 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukraine drones made another strike on the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat cracking refinery in Salavat, Bashkortostan, over 1300 km from the front line.

Overnight, Ukrainian special forces struck the Volgograd oil refinery: Russia’s largest fuel producer in the Southern Federal District. With a capacity of 15.7 million tons per year, it accounts for 5.6% of Russia’s refining. Early reports suggest the plant has been shut down.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Ukraine’s war on Russian oil production continues to bear fruit. Numerous reports of empty fuel stations and skyrocketing prices. Double and triple taps on some of these facilities indicate a more sophisticated battle damage assessment of strikes. Multiple hits taking these facilities off line for much longer periods of time.

Continued reports of Russians massing forces opposite Pokrovsk. However, the longer they wait the more prepared Ukraine will be.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Continued assault on Gaza City

- Hamas threatening citizens with murder

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel on Wednesday announced that its long-awaited laser air defense system, known as the “Iron Beam,” is now fully operational following a series of advanced tests. The Defense Ministry and developer Rafael Advanced Defense Systems said the first batteries will be delivered to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) by the end of the year, marking a historic first for military technology worldwide.

During the ongoing war, a lower-powered version of the laser had already been used by the IDF to down Hezbollah drones from Lebanon, reportedly neutralizing dozens of targets.
https://www.worthynews.com/108765-israel-declares-iron-beam-laser-defense-system-operational-set-for-nationwide-deployment

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Gazan channels report the IDF is increasing strikes in the area of the Shati refugee camp and western Gaza City, near the coast.

***
Hamas-linked channels are once again threatening mass executions of Gazans accused of being Israeli ‘agents’ in the coming days.

https://x.com/no_itsmyturn/status/1968533376677118135?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***
The British Times: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will recognize a Palestinian state over the weekend, following President Trump’s visit to the United Kingdom. Starmer delayed the recognition announcement due to Trump’s visit, fearing it would cancel or harm the planned joint press conference during the visit.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The assault on Gaza City continues with pretty strict OPSEC. Some OSINT analysis indicates three principle approach axis. One being to push into the southern end of the city, the other two hitting the northwest pushing down the coast and northeast areas

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Security forces deployed to the Iranian cities of Tehran, Karaj, Mashhad, as authorities fear the possibility of new protests following the third anniversary of Mahsa Amini’s killing.

Lebanon -

The IDF eliminated yesterday the terrorist Hassin Sipo Sharif in the Baalbek area in Lebanon. The terrorist served as a senior arms dealer and supplier and operated from Lebanon to direct terrorist cells planning to advance terror routes against the State of Israel in Syrian territory.

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Report that Russian forces at Khmeimim Air Base continue to refuse to open Latakia Airport and allow it to receive civilian flights in Syria. The Russian forces say the reason is its proximity to the Hmeimim military base, and the danger it poses to military equipment and Russian soldiers inside the base.

***
Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad Al-Shibani and his delegation arrived in Washington for the first official visit by a Syrian foreign minister to the U.S. in 25 years.

Turkey –

Turkish Ministry of Defense:

We would like to once again remind that the ongoing armament efforts of the Greek Cypriot Administration and its activities that could undermine peace and stability on the island may lead to dangerous consequences.

OBSERVATION - For those not old enough to remember, Cyprus was the scene of fighting between Turkish allied forces and Greek forces - a quasi-civil war. Both countries claim the island at theirs. The persistent friction between these two NATO ‘allies’ has only gotten worse in recent days under Erodogen designs on leading a new caliphate. This latest is in response to Israel supplying advanced air defense weapons to the Greek Cypriots.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

Threat Level upgraded to WARNING due to increased potential for more leftist attacks on conservative mouthpieces and advocates following Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

UPCOMING -
- Memorial Service Charlie Cook - Sep 20
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Warning continues for the Phoenix area on Sunday. Antifa and other leftists could not only plot against the memorial service site, but also target approaches to the football stadium with road closures and other violent means.

***
Some of the aftershocks from Kirk’s murder are subsiding, but expect more to hit Sunday.

***
Did anyone else notice the massive earthquake from the national economic and labor boycott? Didn’t think so.

***
(FO) The U.S. State Department is severing ties with nonprofit Utah Global Diplomacy, according to a State Department source. Utah Global Diplomacy awarded Armed Queers SLC organizer Ermiya Fanaeian in 2022 with its 7 For 17 award, for demonstrating “a commitment to meeting one or multiple of the 17 United National Sustainable Development Goals through novel, innovative, or unique means.” Utah Global Diplomacy has scrubbed its website of any mention of Fanaeian, and its website is now password protected.

OBSERVATION - Deeper subversive ties being uncovered from the murder of Kirk.

***
Eleven Democratic elected officials were arrested in NYC after demanding access to ICE’s migrant detention cells. Others were arrested outside attempting to block departure of ICE vehicles.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Republicans confirm 48 of President Trump’s nominees at once after changing the Senate’s rules to avoid delays by Democratic members.

OBSERVATION - About time

***
Democrats voiced concern in a tense and emotional caucus meeting Thursday morning that members who oppose a House resolution honoring slain conservative icon Charlie Kirk could face threats or violence.

The House was set to vote Thursday on a five-page resolution introduced by Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and co-sponsored by 165 House Republicans, but no Democrats.

In addition to condemning Kirk’s assassination last week in Utah, the resolution calls the slain conservative leader a “courageous American patriot” who “worked tirelessly to promote unity without compromising on conviction.”

Some House Democrats left the meeting visibly upset, adding fuel to concerns about the political ramifications of the vote. But Democrat leaders are not formally whipping the vote, sources told Axios, much to the frustration of some members.

“That was the ugliest meeting I’ve ever seen,” a senior House Democrat told Axios. The lawmaker spoke on the condition of anonymity to offer sensitive details of a private discussion. The lawmaker said they saw frustration from members “that never get mad.”

“Members are on edge in this moment,” another senior House Democrat told Axios.

Several House Democrats voiced concerns about possible violence, with some arguing that if the party is divided, members who vote against the resolution might be targeted.

One member told Axios “point-blank” there could be violent repercussions “because of our not being together.” Another paraphrased the argument as: “If everybody’s not a ‘yes’, the ‘nos’ will get targeted.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/house-democrats-kirk/2025/09/18/id/1226966/

OBSERVATION - I suspect they had more to fear from their marxist constituents should they vote ‘yes’. A ‘no’ vote would paint them in the open as being supportive of political assassination and violence - bad visual with midterms fast approaching.

Illegal Immigration –

In less than 250 days, 2 MILLION illegal aliens have left the United States.

https://x.com/DHSgov/status/1968426747180761236

OBSERVATION - Depending on the estimate of 12-20 million illegals that entered the country under biden, 10-15% of them are not gone.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia’s far east bastion of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky was just rocked by a massive magnitude 7.8 earthquake, the third in the last month, with Tsunami warnings already going out.

The city hosts the Russian Navy’s Rybachiy submarine base, and the Air Force’s Yelizovo airbase. Multiple reports of heavy shaking and damage to concrete buildings are coming in.

OBSERVATION - Known, highly seismically active area, with lots of big ones. Russia should have built to standards to handle these, but with so many 7+ in a short time, some designs may start failing.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 86 drones overnight, including over 50 Shaheds, from Kursk, Shatalovo, Millerovo, and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukraine’s air defenses downed or suppressed 71 of them across the north, east, and center. Strikes hit six locations, with debris falling in two others.

Russian losses per 19/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1150 men
+1 AFV
+17 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that more than 700,000 Russian soldiers are now deployed on the Ukrainian front line. Putin made the comment during a televised meeting with top Russian lawmakers.

Russian sabotage-recon groups have been spotted in Kupyansk, where a Ukrainian operation is underway to eliminate them.

Russian sources report things are heating up on the Sumy axis. Ukrainian forces are pushing harder near Andriivka and Yunakivka, reinforcing their assault units and using drones to disrupt Russian supply lines near Sadky and Oleksiivka. Russia is in the middle of rotating out the 810th Marines and bringing in troops from the 30th Motor Rifle Regiment, some of them already slipping into the area around Gordeevka.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1968960428647588112?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Analysis and Future Operations —

Reported Russian casualties are up again Hold putin’s claim of 700K soldiers in theatre at arms length, but only a little. Some OSINT analysts have noted as many as 600K. The surge in numbers may well be linked to economic turmoil in Russia and the big bonuses the army is making for recruits.

Also noticing a decline in the reported number of tanks and APCs being destroyed. One dangerous reason could be that they are holding them back for use whenever the Fall offensive kicks off. Some analysts are suggesting that the delay is due to Russia waiting for seasonal fog to develop, hampering Ukraine FPV drones from identifying and attacking there forces as they move thru no mans land. Could be legit, however, makes me wonder why Russia hasn’t employed more smoke rounds for its artillery to gain a similar advantage in the past.

Sumy fighting is unconfirmed, thou some analysts indicate Russia’s forces are in bad shape. The past couple months Ukrinane has seen success in several areas with counter attacks.

SERBIA / KOSOVO -

Big military parade in Serbia. Largest in several years.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Push in Gaza City continues

- Heavy IAF strikes in S Lebanon

——— GENERAL ——————————-

The US vetoed the UN Security Council’s resolution for an immediate end to the war in Gaza.

The proposal:
- Immediate ceasefire.
- Unlimited “aid” into Gaza — with zero safeguards.
- No condemnation of Hamas.
- No demand for disarmament.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Two Israeli divisions continued a slow but steady advance on Gaza City from different directions on the third day of Operation Gideon’s Chariots II, which aims to capture the entirety of the Hamas stronghold.

Army Radio cited senior military officials who described the current fighting as a “probing stage,” where Israeli troops are advancing slowly while Hamas fighters continue to entrench themselves in the city center, largely avoiding direct clashes so far.

The Israel Defense Forces said Wednesday that the troops are “targeting and destroying terrorist infrastructure in the Strip and eliminating numerous militants.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/idf-hamas-defense/2025/09/18/id/1226849/

***
It is estimated that 480,000 residents have already evacuated Gaza City. This is nearly half of the population.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli forces just busted a terror cell in Ramallah, producing rockets aimed at Jewish communities in Judea & Samaria.
One had a 10 km range, enough to threaten Israel’s international airport.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

One missile launched by Houthis was successfully intercepted. A secondr one failed to even reach our area and fell on the way

A Houthi drone hit near a hotel in Eilat by the Red Sea.
Earlier this evening (Thursday), an additional UAV that was launched from the Yemen was intercepted by the IAF in the past few hours. No sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Gaza City is progressively being turned to rubble. Using remote drones / robots, buildings that have been wired with booby traps are coming down along with those directly used by Hamas. There is concern by some analysts that Hamas is looking to conduct a last stand in the city center area - most likely with hostages prominently displayed in an attempt to warn off Israeli forces.

Analyst indicating that Hezbollah has recovered up to 25% of prewar levels of strength and is actively trying to reconstruct its defenses and sites in S Lebanon. The Lebanese govt has been slow to act to disarm Hezbollah as per the current agreement, so Israel is taking care of it. IMHO the Lebanese govt is silently happy to let Israel do the heavy lifting on this. Iran / Hezbollah are putting a lot of effort to reconstitute a threat to Israel’s north. However, impacts from the war and the overthrow of the Hezbollah friendly Syria govt are making matters very hard.

Lebanon -

IAF struck numerous Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon in the largest attack in months.

The Israel Defense Force has released additional details about today’s strikes against Southern Lebanon, stating that both waves of strikes were carried out against military infrastructure, specifically weapons storage facilities, operated by Hezbollah’s “Elite” Radwan Force. Israel states that elements of the Radwan Force continue attempts to rehabilitate terrorist infrastructure in Southern Lebanon intended to harm the State of Israel.

UNIFIL: Israel must stop launching any raids. UNIFIL forces condemned the Israeli aggression on southern Lebanon yesterday, calling on the army to “immediately stop launching any further raids.”

OBSERVATION - UNIFIL is a bunch of rear end kissers of Hezbollah and Hamas.

The Israeli army: We will attack Hezbollah’s military infrastructure in the near future in Tyre Zebna (Al-Shahabiya) and Burj Qalawieh.

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

(FO) Venezuelan President Maduro ordered 2,500 land, air, and sea troops, 12 ships, and 22 aircraft to the island of La Orchila to conduct a drill entitled Caribe Soberano 200. Per the Venezuelan Defense Minister, this is a direct response to the U.S.’ naval presence.

Misc of Note –

For us here in the Redoubt, the late summer is turning into a mild fall. Don’t let that deceive you. Winter preps are underway because the weather can change to the bad in 15 minutes.

Preps for cars / travel for those in wintery climes should include -

- A blanket or two
- Jumper cables
- Tire Chains
- Reliable way to start a fire.
- Wear proper winter apparel.

For homes -

- Alternative heating / cooking source readied, such as fire places, etc
- Get fireplaces cleaned and firewood stocked
- Alternative power supplies for outages. Solar/batteries for short term, generators for longer term
- Fuel for generators

Just quick list of general things off the top of my head. Tailor to your specific location and needs.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

Threat Level upgraded to WARNING due to increased potential for more leftist attacks on conservative mouthpieces and advocates following Charlie Kirk’s assassination.

UPCOMING -
- Memorial Service Charlie Cook - Sep 20
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

Increased probability of leftist disturbances / violence directed towards Kirk remembrance assemblies that meet across the country this weekend. If you attend on, come prepared and with your head on a swivel.

RELATED - An armed man claiming to be affiliated with law enforcement was detained Friday after entering the Arizona stadium where conservative activist Charlie Kirk’s memorial service is set to take place Sunday, according to the Secret Service.

The man, who was not identified, entered State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, and was observed “exhibiting suspicious behavior,” the Secret Service said in a statement late Friday. When Secret Service agents approached him, he claimed to be a member of law enforcement and said he was armed, the service said.

“The individual is not a member of authorized law enforcement working the event and is currently in custody,” the service said, adding that he had not been arrested as of late Friday night. “The U.S. Secret Service and local law enforcement are investigating the circumstances as to why he was at the location.”

The man had at least one gun and one knife when he was stopped, according to a law enforcement official familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the investigation is ongoing. He also presented “inactive law enforcement credentials” and told Secret Service agents he was at the site to provide private security, the official said.

OBSERVATION - Good that they caught one. But WHY WASN’T HE ARRESTED. This act indicates and effort by the leftists to infiltrate the service and conduct a level of violence that could include shooting. Security measures are having everyone go thru TSA style searches, which is probably why this individual infiltrated in before - goal to hide in the large stadium and come out during the service.

My assessment continues to have leftist disruption of roads/highways to prevent attendees reaching the stadium, probably protests / violence outside the stadium. Cannot rule out disruptions in the service by those who entered and then activate - shouting slogans and doing other disruptive actions such as trying to start fights, etc.

This gunman adds a more dangerous component of planned lethal violence in the stadium being more thought out than before.

***
After a short period of relative quiet towards Kirk memorial services, the violent left has stepped up their harassment and disruptions of these later gatherings. The actions are intended to intimidate the right into cessation of such events. Some analysts are warning that these violent leftists are going to double down on violence to include potentially more shootings and other acts.

***
The Socialist Rifle Association, which has militia chapters across the U.S., is attempting to hide the names of its members after people are learning that many of them have been linked to violent attacks.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1969122720831979755?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Following the Berkeley riots of 2017, leftist elements began to uparm and developed groups like the SRA, Redneck Revolt and John Brown gun organizations to train leftists on how to use firearms and develop a cadre of trained shooters for later, insurrection activities. Many on the right laughed at these early efforts, but we shouldn’t be laughing now. Kirk’s murderer was trained by SRA and affiliated leftist gun groups. They have caught up on the learning curve and have increased the potential lethality of the left.

The simple fact that they are taking their membership listings to ground is strong evidence that they knew and have condoned violence.

***
Redditors are encouraging each other to approach prominently right wing individuals at their homes.

OBSERVATION - Some of the loudest cheerleading for leftist violence is being posted on Reddit. These calls for violence and more assassinations have been going since last summer, but with Kirk’ assassination, the calls for violence have been amplified.

***
Organizers of the “No Kings 2.0” are reportedly having challenges in the face of the backlash from Kirk’s assassination. They are now trying to have the focus and attendance be Washington DC, while still endorsing other, local events.

IMHO, they will get an astroturfed crowd together, but will be largely ineffective in gaining more ground in popularity. If they resume their base calls and touch negatively on the Kirk third rail, it could back fire on them as a big PR dumpster fire.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
Officials responded to a bomb threat at the home of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Officials say that, as of now, no explosive device has been found. The scene remains active while the investigation continues.

OBSERVATION - This is a spin off of the increased willingness of the violent left to try to regain the momentum of intimidation that the Kirk assassination temporally put brakes on. RFK Jr is prominently noted on many lists of desired follow on assassination floating around the leftist social media sites.

***
The U.S. National Counterterrorism Center said Friday that recent calls by Al-Qaeda for attacks against the United States showed the group’s enduring threat to the country.

Al-Qaeda and its Yemen-based affiliate, Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) “are likely seeking to leverage their media publications and global conflicts, particularly where there is U.S. support or military involvement, to inspire potential attackers,” it said in a memo to law enforcement.

The memo urged government officials to avoid surveillance, to not post or publicly share details about travel plans, schedules and locations, and to remove badges and other forms of identification outside of work.

It also warned of potential threats to targets that draw large crowds including sport and music events and urged law enforcement presence at those events along with organizing pre-event briefings on security measures.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/terror-center-al-qaeda-threat/2025/09/19/id/1227157/

OBSERVATION - This is pretty much the standard warning that has been issued often since 9/11. No notice of any active indicators of an attack. It has almost reached the cry wolf level of warnings. However, AQ is a long term planning and execution group, and no doubt they have plans similar to the warning. So in any case, we must continue to keep our heads on a swivel - especially at events that draw large crowds. Quite frankly, I’m more worried at this stage of leftist violence over AQ.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The Trump endorsed CR failed in the Senate. John Fetterman voted with Republicans but Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski voted with Democrats. This is what Donald Trump was hoping to avoid.

Republicans who didn’t vote: Banks (R-IN), Blackburn (R-TN), Cassidy (R-LA), Johnson (R-WI), Lee (R-UT), Mullin (R-OK), Scott (R-SC), and Sullivan (R-AK).

“In exchange for responsibly keeping the government open while Congress works through the appropriations process, Democrats are demanding free health insurance for illegal aliens, $500 million for NPR, and an overall $1.5 trillion spending hike,” Speaker Johnson said. “If they block our clean CR, Democrats alone will be responsible for the government shutdown.”

https://www.independentsentinel.com/the-cr-didnt-pass-government-shutdown-looms-october-1/

OBSERVATION - It is apparent that the dems are going the shut down the govt path. They are DEMANDING items that are pretty well rejected by the majority of Americans
- free health insurance for illegal aliens,
- $500 million for NPR, and
- an overall $1.5 trillion spending hike

In this case, Schumer et al are bowing to the radical left wing of the party who have been demanding action against Trump.

But lets look at another aspect - why in the H E double toothpicks did congress go into recess for the month of August knowing full well it only had a couple weeks to deal with the impending shut down?

IMHO blame will be messy, but the democrats stand to lose more from its moderate wing (or what’s left of it) as the more radical aspects come to the forefront.

TRUMP Watch –

President Trump and Chinese President Xi held a phone call yesterday for the first time since June. The two were scheduled to discuss ownership of TikTok, a tariff truce, and potentially an in-person meeting.

***
Trump will host Erdogan at the White House on 25th Sept., where they will discuss trade and military deals, including a large-scale Boeing aircraft purchase and the ongoing F-35 talks, expected to conclude positively.

Illegal Immigration –

ICE began a series of arrests for deportation in the Chicago area. Leftists have responded by laying siege to the ICE facility in Broadview, IL.
ICE and other federal agents fired tear gas, sting balls against protesters who attempted to blockade gate as vehicles exited.

Protests are in response to the Trump administration’s “Operation Midway Blitz”.

OBSERVATION - Event can also be connected to CW2

At this stage, ICE / DHS assets that could be out arresting illegals are being forced to defend facilities from these leftist protestors. The court battle over NG involvement in LA illegal round up has put ICE in a pinch. In LA, NG and Marines took charge of security at these facilities - as clearly defined by law they could do - freeing up manpower for the around up of illegals. Trump keeping his powder dry until the USSC rules in his favor over the activist judges below them.

China -

Trump - Xi call, see above

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

OBSERVATIONS -

Russia poking the bear very hard lately with deliberate violations of airspace in Poland and now Estonia. this is an effort to up the intimidation of Ukrainian allies with the threat of Russian military retaliation. A very dangerous game of chicken is developing that may see any further Russian fighter intrusions being shot down and a no - fly zone over parts of Ukraine.

Additionally, these actions provide greater reasons for the west to impose more severe sanctions and tariffs on Russia as part of an initial response.

Personnel Issues –

Russia, in coordination with Iran, is ramping up the recruitment of Middle Eastern mercenaries, including ex-ISIS fighters, for the war in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Recruits from Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, and Yemen are being lured with promises of $3,000–$8,000 and Russian citizenship.

OBSERVATION - Some analysts point to this recruitment effort to show the body pool of Russians is running low and not sustainable for much longer. Heterogeneity mix of people/ethinic groups bring problems of their own as far as command and control.

Economic Impact –

Russia’s state-owned pipeline monopoly Transneft – which handles over 80 percent of the nation’s crude oil – privately warned producers that output may need to be slashed due to mounting infrastructure damage, according to industry sources. While Transneft publicly dismissed the reports as “fake news” and part of a Western “information war,” internal communications reveal growing strain on Moscow’s energy logistics.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2025-09-19-transneft-warns-lower-oil-output-ukraine-strikes.html

OBSERVATION - Ukraine’s asymmetric battle plan continues to hit a vital artery of Russia’s economy. Ukraine’s updated tactic of multiple hits on refineries, etc, rather than a one and done approach is paying benefits in substantially more damage and down time to major sites. The ability of Ukraine to hit these sites again and again shows that Russia’s drone defense is pretty thin.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range with some scattered showers

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reports on the Russian missile and drone attack at night.

Shot down:
552/579 Shahed and other type drones
2/8 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
29/32 Kh-101 cruise missiles

The Air Force adds that in particular F-16’s helped repel the attack.

Trajectory of Russian missiles and drones during the overnight attack. Main focus of the attack was Dnipro, Zaporizhzia, Mykolaiv, Odesa and front line positions. Energy sites and residential areas were hit. Dnipro saw direct strikes, an apartment block was destroyed, leaving casualties and cutting water and power.

Ukrainian Forces struck three key targets overnight in Russia’s Saratov and Samara regions: the Saratov and Novokuybyshevsk oil refineries and the Samara oil pumping station

During Ukraine’s overnight strike on occupied Crimea, a hit was reported on a known Russian air defense position between Kurortne and Bagerove, near Lake Chokrak. Local channels confirm signs of impact in the area. FIRMS data also shows fires in the area.

Russian losses per 20/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1070 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+31 artillery

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Berezove village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

We are discussing coordination with Poland and Romania to shoot down drones in the western regions of Ukraine, — Zelensky

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another elevated count of Russia casualties. Important to see if these numbers continue to rise. At this stage could reflect a number of possibilities Unfortunately, they are not broken down by sectors of the front, but in general, so making it hard to determine what factors are at play. But in general, casualties have increased by 20-25%, a significant number.

Poland –

Two Russian Armed Forces fighter jets conducted a low-level pass over the Petrobaltic oil and gas platform. Polish security services are constantly monitoring the situation within critical maritime infrastructure, including beyond Polish territorial waters.

***
The Operational Command of the Polish Armed Forces states that Polish and allied aircraft have been scrambled due to the activity of Russian long-range aviation which is currently carrying out strikes against targets in Western Ukraine.

OBSERVATION - This was aided by the identification of Russian strategic bombers flying to locations where they commonly fire cruise missiles at Ukraine. These attack missions are commonly associated with a correspondingly high number of drones and missiles being launched. See Ukraine above for drone/missile counts.

Europe / NATO General –

Prime Minister of Estonia: This morning, 3 Russian Mig-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace and headed toward the capital, Tallinn, according to Politico. They flew in “dark’, no transponders on. The jets circled for about 12 minutes before NATO scrambled Italian F-35s to repel them.

Estonia activated Article 4 of the NATO Treaty, which means holding consultations with NATO regarding Russian incursions into its airspace. This article was activated a week ago by Poland.

Estonia’s PM: Indicates that rules of engagement are being set for shooting down Russian jets in the future

OBSERVATION - Very dangerous escalation of intimidation tactics by Russia. Even during the cold war, Soviet jets would’t be this bold. This is a deliberate series of operations to probe and intimidate NATO.

***
Berlin Brandenburg and Brussels airports have reported cyberattacks, while London’s Heathrow is experiencing system outages. – Sky/Reuters

OBSERVATION - No word on suspected culprits, however, given the sudden military aggressiveness shown by Russia toward Poland, Romanian and the Baltic States, I would not be surprised if the source is Russian.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Gaza City continues to be reduced

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Heavy airstrikes reported in the eastern Gaza City area.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Yes, it appears that very little is happening in this category. That would not be correct. Much of the Gaza City battle is wrapped under OPSEC and some of the arab reporting is not entirely the most accurate. And even they are likely being heavily censored by Hamas.

Essentially silence on further hostage/ceasefire talks.

I expect operations silence to continue, broken by announcements by Israel on tactical successes which are designed largely to demoralize Hamas and supporters.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

French President Emmanuel Macron stated on September 18 that UN snapback sanctions on Iran are a “done deal” and will be reimposed at the end of September. Macron told Israeli media that Iran has failed to make serious commitments. The UN Security Council will reimpose snapback sanctions on Iran when the 30-day process concludes on September 27 unless Iran meets the criteria laid out under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.

OBSERVATION - Iran is desperately making proposals to derail the snap back provisions. The economic hit will be substantial and force the rulers to decide if rebuilding the military and nuclear programs are worth the denial of support to citizens in need of water and power for basic living.

Iraq -

The Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper Al-Akhbar reported Friday on growing American pressure to dismantle Shiite militias in Iraq.

According to the report, it appears the US is not satisfied with anything less than the complete dismantlement of Hashd al-Shaabi (the militia umbrella organization), and cancellation of any role they have in the state’s security system.

The newspaper wrote that Iraqi authorities have offered a series of concessions in recent months – starting from pressure to halt the “Hashd al-Shaabi” law, which establishes the militias’ status by making them one of the security mechanisms, through increasing pressure on the militias so they would accept integration that would “cancel their power component,” and up to pushing for the release of Israeli hostage Elizabeth Tsurkov “without anyting in exchange,” according to the report.

All these organizations are members of the “Islamic Resistance in Iraq,” which, according to the report, carried out hundreds of launches toward Israel and the US since the start of the war in October 2023.

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/09/19/report-us-intensifies-pressure-for-total-iraqi-militia-dismantlement/

OBSERVATION - These Iranian backed militias have been floundering to a degree following the hammering Iran received from Israel as well as the rise of the sunni govt in Syria. This sudden weakness has given the Iraqi govt a window with which to act on them and delegitimize them.

Lebanon -

IAF drone strike takes out two more Hezbollah leaders

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

US Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on Thursday that its forces killed a senior Islamic State (ISIS) operative during a targeted raid in Syria, eliminating what officials described as a “direct threat” to the US homeland

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

President Donald Trump stated he ordered another strike on a “narco-terrorist” boat in the Caribbean. It was sunk with three reportedly on board.

TV coverage of the Kirk Memorial is available on numerous outlets.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Starmer will reportedly announce the launch of digital ID cards for Brits in just days in his bid to crack down on illegal immigrants.

Officials claim the PM is determined to push forward with the introduction of the digital ID scheme.

Starmer is expected to make the announcement as early as the next Labour party conference which starts September 28, according to the Financial Times.

https://hotair.com/headlines/2025/09/20/starmer-to-announce-digital-id-cards-for-brits-in-just-days-n3807001

OBSERVATION - Globalist and their lackeys continue to press towards digitizing people - IDs and later financial data/access.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

UPCOMING -
- Memorial Service Charlie Cook - Today
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Heightened security measures are in place for Sunday’s Charlie Kirk memorial at State Farm Stadium in Arizona. Authorities are expecting over 100,000 people on the property, with 63,000 packed inside the stadium.
Turning Point USA will cover the costs of the event and its security.

OBSERVATION - With the increased calls for violence from the left I am very concerned that some action may happen at this service. There will be a lot of very high profile individuals all in one location. Trump, Vance, numerous cabinet members and other VIPs are scheduled to be there. For the violent left this would be a target rich environment. Should they manage to pull off something serious, the gloves will be off not only from the administration, but very likely elements from the right will see is as justification to retaliate.

FOLLOW UP - The armed man stopped yesterday was arrested (contrary to earlier reports) and released on bond.

Runkles, 42, told Secret Service agents that he was at the stadium to provide private security and presented them with “inactive law enforcement credentials.”

He was reportedly carrying a knife, a firearm, and expired law enforcement credentials when he was detained inside State Farm Stadium.

Runkles was booked on charges of impersonating a law enforcement officer and carrying a weapon in a prohibited location.

An investigation is ongoing to determine his intent and purpose at the stadium. Runkles has since been released on bond,” according to Arizona DPS.

***
A transgender staffer in newscum’s office has been found to be responsible for the apparent threat towards Sec Norm posted this week on “X”.

***
People are focusing a lot on the Socialist Rifle Association. Still, they should also know that the John Brown Gun Club, which is an even more extreme far-left militia, has been linked to several domestic terrorist attacks. That group is part of the Antifa network.

In 2019, the Antifa gunman who tried to blow up the Tacoma, Wash. ICE facility was a member of the JBGC. Willem van Spronsen refined his skills in making a homemade unregistered rifle in the group. He sent an Antifa “bella ciao” manifesto to his comrades before the deadly attack. (Unlike Tyler Robinson’s parents, they didn’t contact police.)

In 2025, the Texas Antifa members accused of shooting up the ICE facility in Alvarado, shooting one officer in the neck, were revealed to be members of the Elm Fork JBGC.

https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1969178141210886233

***
ANTIFA Richmond has been distributing flyers calling for a shooting war with the feds

***
Sacramento man arrested after opening fire on ABC10 news station lobby in broad daylight.

Anibal Hernandez-Santana, 64, was arrested Friday evening at an apartment on Carlson Drive in Sacramento’s River Park neighborhood after investigators linked him to a suspect vehicle, according to reports.

An X account that appears to belong to Hernandez-Santana is full of anti-Trump posts, as reported by Variety.

The man, 64, previously worked as a legislative director for the California Federation of Teachers, the outlet reported.

“The authoritarian oligarchy is now complete. CBS+ caving, big law firms in DC, the subservients FBI and AG, university presidents stepping down, fan boys SCOTUS, public radio, ICE goons. We are going to have to ‘fight like hell’…” the account that appears to belong to him posted in July.

Hernandez-Santana was arrested on charges of assault with a deadly weapon, negligent discharge of a firearm, and shooting into an occupied building.

OBSERVATION - Are we seeing the start of a growing trend of deranged leftist grabbing the gun to cancel out those with whom they have a grievance?

***
Democrat podcaster ‘Destiny’ has been fired and demonetized

Destiny “You need conservatives to be afraid of getting killed when they go to events”

https://x.com/wallstreetapes/status/1969091579575984357?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Continued and accelerated calls for more murder and violence from influencers on the left.

***
Reports that the official black lives matter account has posted a video stating that black people “have a right to violence” amid mass outrage over the slaying of Iryna Zarutska at the hands of a black male in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***

A shooter (initially two shooters were thought to be present) attacked a wedding party at a New Hampshire country club. One dead, may injured

While police say the motive and the shooter’s connection to the event are still under investigation, the shooter reportedly yelled “Free Palestine” before firing.

The Nashua Department is currently investigating an incident at Sky Meadow Country Club involving multiple gunshot victims. There are two armed suspects that have fled the area. 1 suspect has been detained and the other suspect is still at large.

At first Authorities initially believed there were two gunmen but later confirmed via video surveillance that only one shooter was involved, and he was taken into custody shortly after.

An unconfirmed report is that one person hit the shooter over the head with a chair after they opened fire.

OBSERVATION - The call “Free Palestine” is not only utilized by the pro-hamas terrorists, but other leftists in general use the phrase as well. I seriously doubt we’ll get much more info from this shooting from authorities.

Another example of deranged leftists acting on the calls to violence from democrat influencers and politicians?

POLITICAL FRONT –

As a possible federal shutdown looms, the Democratic leaders of Congress are demanding a meeting with President Donald Trump to negotiate an end to what they call “your decision” to shutter government offices if no action is taken by the end-of-the month deadline.

Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries said Saturday that Republicans, at Trump’s insistence, have refused to enter talks. Democrats are pushing to preserve health care programs as part of any deal to keep government running past the Sept. 30 funding deadline.

“We write to demand a meeting in connection with your decision to shut down the federal government because of the Republican desire to continue to gut the healthcare of the American people,” the two New York Democrats wrote.

“Democrats have been clear and consistent in our position,” they said. “We are ready to work toward a bipartisan spending agreement that improves the lives of American families and addresses the Republican healthcare crisis.”

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/congress-government-shutdown-trump/2025/09/20/id/1227186/

OBSERVATION - Whenever democrats have called for ‘bipartisan’ efforts, they mean they want it their way and the republicans can eat dirt.

Meanwhile the things the democrats are demanding are not on the general radar of Americans. They clearly are on the radical leftist side of democrats.

Illegal Immigration –

The City of Portland, Oregon, has issued a land use violation notice to the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facility located on the city’s southwest waterfront. The notice, posted on Thursday, alleges that ICE is violating a 2011 land use permit that prohibits holding detainees overnight or for more than 12 hours. The Deportation Data Project, a Portland-based progressive nonprofit, claims that the facility breached these terms at least 25 times between October 2024 and July 2025, based on data obtained through the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

OBSERVATION - This is more show than go IMHO.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

BLOOMBERG: Putin believes military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine into talks on his terms, and concluded Trump is unlikely to do much to bolster Ukraine. The talks in Alaska convinced Putin that Trump will not intervene in the conflict.

RUMINT-

Reportedly, a Russian general that defected has been warning that Russia is planning on conduction a “gray zone” attack in Poland or some other former Soviet republic. Suppose to be part of putin’s escalation of force to deter support to Ukraine. IMHO - recent incursions by Russian drones and military aircraft could be opening moves for such a gambit.

Economic Impact –

The EU is considering trade measures to curb remaining Russian oil imports via the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Hungary and Slovakia, Bloomberg reports. Unlike sanctions, tariffs need only a majority vote. This move could fulfill a key Trump demand for stronger EU alignment on Russia.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 54 attack drones, including Shaheds and Geran-type UAVs, from multiple directions. Ukraine’s Air Force, air defense, EW units, and mobile fire teams intercepted or suppressed 33 of them. However, 21 drones hit targets across 8 locations

Russian losses per 21/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1010 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+25 artillery

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another day of elevated Russia losses. Into a low cycle for drones.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Gaza City getting hammered hard again ahead of another expansion of IDF into the city.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Rosh Hashanah, Sep 23 - 24

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Overnight, the Israeli army intensified its raids in the northern Gaza Strip.

The Israeli army intensifies its raids on the Al-Sabra neighborhood, south of Gaza City,

Two rockets were fired from Gaza toward the Ashdod area on Sunday morning. The IDF reported that one rocket was intercepted, and the second landed in open territory.
These were the first rockets launched from within Gaza toward Israeli territory in several weeks.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***
Report on BBC; UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer will announce tomorrow afternoon in a statement that the United Kingdom recognizes a Palestinian state

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Offensive into Gaza City continues, with few details due to Israeli OPSEC. Intense air strikes followed by ground troop movements to secure the areas.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iranian news agency Tasnim: The Supreme National Security Council of Iran, headed by President Raisi, decided today to immediately suspend all cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the activation of the snapback mechanism by the European powers.

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Syrian President Ahmad Al-Shaaraa arrives in Washington for a 5-day visit — the first by a Syrian leader in decades. Meetings with U.S. officials and the Syrian-American community planned

Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025

Venezuela has launched a three-day military exercise titled “Sovereign Caribbean” in response to President Donald J. Trump’s recent strikes on drug trafficker boats in the region. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López confirmed the operation involves the deployment of air defense systems, armed drones, and electronic warfare units. The exercises are taking place on La Orchila island, a Venezuelan military base, and feature 12 naval ships, 22 aircraft, and 20 small boats operated by Venezuela’s special maritime militia.

Diosdado Cabello called on all Venezuelans to join the militia to defend the country, regardless of whether they are Chavistas or not.

Donald Trump warns the Maduro regime that it will pay an incalculable price if it does not accept all deportees immediately.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Noting more behind the scenes maneuvering to get the EU onto a digital currency sooner rather than later. Some rumors involve deliberately crashing central banks to force adoption of an EU wide system. A lot of RUMINT at this stage, but fundamental pieces are there.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***

The Kirk memorial went off with apparently little in the way of protests from the left. Reports of scattered vocal protestors with signs.

This hasn’t stopped the flow of sewage from the keyboards of leftists. They are still pushing the narrative in some circles that Kirk’s killer was a right wing MAGA, denying his strong LGBT associations and Furry lover, along with LGBT and Antifa markings on his bullets.

I fully expect that the left will rally after this weekends memorial to double and triple down on the character assassination of Kirk, attempts at protecting association with leftist violent extremism and the groundswell of TPUSA clubs across the nation.

Maintaining concern over more leftist shooters responding to calls for violence against those opposed to the narrative.

***
Nicholas Roske, who attempted to kill Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, has submitted paperwork to change his name to “Sophia Roske” and requested that the court use female pronouns in official proceedings.

OBSERVATION - A tranny before or after incarceration?

***
People are mistaken to think that Soros “pays” Antifa rioters. Rather, huge sums of money from his philanthropy arm goes through several layers before reaching far-left radical nonprofits, groups and projects on the ground that are part of the Antifa network. Democrats at the county and state level also provide funding to Antifa-allied groups.

https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1969611226058555530

OBSERVATION - Old adage - “Follow the money, honey”

***
In yet another disturbing episode of radicalized anti-government extremism, a 22-year-old New Hampshire man was arrested after allegedly threatening to assassinate Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte using a “weapon of mass destruction” — while spewing grotesquely antisemitic rhetoric involving “Jew feds” and the “Israel Deep State.”

Tristan Alexander Anderson, of Merrimack County, was taken into custody on August 28 after police were tipped off about a series of violent threats he made via Snapchat. In one message, Anderson wrote chillingly, “I’m going to target the NH Mayor Kelly Ayott (sic) with my weapon of mass destruction.” He then launched into a deranged antisemitic rant, declaring, “These Jew feds need to f***ing die” and also writing, “Same with polygamy, WHICH WAS CREATED BY THE F***ING JEWS AND ISRAEL DEEP STATE.”

Despite his inability to correctly name the governor — or differentiate between a mayor and the state’s highest executive — Anderson appeared deadly serious. Authorities revealed he had access to firearms, metal pipes, fireworks, nuts, and bolts — all potential bomb-making materials. His roommate told police that Anderson not only discussed building pipe bombs, but also showed her the components and claimed to be actively working on them.

Court documents show the man was not unknown to law enforcement. Anderson has prior charges stemming from a March 2024 incident and another in December 2023. He now faces felony charges of threatening a government official, with more possible as the investigation progresses.

Anderson is being held without bail and is scheduled for a dispositional hearing in November.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/09/leftist-extremist-threatens-gop-gov-with-weapon-of-mass-destruction-goes-on-antisemitic-tirade/

OBSERVATION - The frenzied drumbeat calling for violence by the marxist left continues to trigger those prone to instability but are dangerously capable of such violence.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***

FOLLOW UP
A man who shouted “Free Palestine” while carrying out a deadly shooting in Nashua, N.H. has been arrested. Hunter Nadeau has been charged with murder. The killing is among a string of deadly attacks in the U.S. in which Palestine and/or Gaza were invoked.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1969873985115398398?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Photos of the shooter show that his eyebrows were ‘painted’, sparking discussion on whether or not he was LGBT affiliated. Other reports that he was a former employee. Tight hold on other information.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

For years, public health agencies and pharmaceutical companies insisted it was “impossible” for COVID-19 mRNA injections to alter human DNA. They dismissed all concerns as “misinformation,” offering no evidence to back their assurances.

Today, that narrative collapses.

In our sentinel case report, Genomic Integration and Molecular Dysregulation in Aggressive Stage IV Bladder Cancer Following COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination (Dr. John A. Catanzaro, Nicolas Hulscher, and Dr. Peter A. McCullough; a Neo7Bioscience–McCullough Foundation collaboration), we document—for the first time—direct molecular evidence that genetic material from a COVID-19 mRNA “vaccine” has integrated into the human genome.

https://publichealthpolicyjournal.com/breaking-study-first-direct-evidence-of-mrna-vaccine-genomic-integration-identified-in-stage-iv-cancer-patient/

OBSERVATION - I haven’t been posting a lot of the new research on the mRNA jab and its dangers lately - too much other stuff for one. However, this is just another example of the danger and how knowingly big pharm and its accomplices / lackeys in the CDC et al covered this all up.

Increasing proof that the mRNA jab was designed prior to wuhan and that wuhan was the excuse for the jab to infect millions upon millions with this now demonstrating lethal after effects.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Congressional battles focusing on budget extension or shutdown top of the current list.

***
Abundant Kirk bashing by AOC and Omar among others

North/South Korea –

Kim says he welcomes further talks with Trump, however, the elimination of NKs nuclear weapons will not be on the table.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

ISW. Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025. A Russian insider source that has consistently provided accurate reports about changes in the Russian military command stated on September 21 that roughly 292,000 people signed contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) between the start of 2025 and September 15—an average of approximately 7,900 recruits per week or 31,600 per month.

Other Key Takeaways:
The Russian military command may have assessed that Russia could afford to create a strategic reserve after Russian losses began to decrease in the summer of 2025.

Reports that Russia is creating a strategic reserve further indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in ending its war against Ukraine but remains committed to achieving its war goals on the battlefield and may be preparing for a conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1969907905034928382?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Russia needs to sustain recruitment of 30K per month just to offset losses of 1000/day or 30K per month. The past several months, Russia losses appeared to drop to about an average of 800/day yielding 24K per month. Giving Russia a 6K surplus. Pretty thin margin to build a ‘strategic reserve” from. Over the past couple weeks, Russian losses have gone back to the 30K / month range. Should the Fall offensive go bad, that reserve could be eaten up quickly .

***
The Kremlin dismissed Estonia’s airspace violation claims as baseless provocations, adding that Russian pilots strictly follow international rules.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 141 drones, mostly Shaheds, at Ukraine from multiple directions. Ukrainian defenses shot down or suppressed 132 of them. Nine drones hit targets in seven locations, and debris fell in eight more.

Russian losses per 22/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+960 men
+1 tank
+1 AFV
+47 artillery
+1 MLRS
+3 helicopters

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Kalynivske village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

Analysis and Future Operations —

Lower drone cycle of Russian engagement continues. Action on the ground continues to suggest Russia is trying to increase the tempo and seeing increasing casualties as a result.

Some discussion on Russian recon tactics. Sending large numbers of motorcycle mounted infantry towards Ukraine lines in an effort to find lesser defended areas for more concentrated attacks. Drone take out many, but those few who succeed in penetrating the lines will see Russia attempting to follow up with a larger force to attempt exploitation. So far it has worked since in many locations Ukraine defenses are spread pretty thin. Window for this tactic continues to close as mud season approaches.

Poland –

TRUMP: US to aid in defending Poland if Russia keeps escalating.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO scrambled two Eurofighters from Germany’s Rostock-Laage base to intercept a Russian Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea, Handelsblatt reports. The jet had no flight plan and wasn’t responding to air traffic control.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Several nations declare nationhood for “Palestine”

- IDF commits third division to the Gaza fight.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Rosh Hashanah, Sep 23 - 24

Netanyahu: “A Palestinian state will not be established west of the Jordan. The response to the latest attempt to impose on us a terror state in the heart of our land will be given after my return from the United States. Wait for it”

***
Hamas released a photo of an unidentified hostage on Monday afternoon, a few hours before the start of Rosh Hashanah.
The Hostages and Missing Families Forum Headquarters have requested that any footage or related media released by Hamas or the Islamic Jihad not be published without permission from the family.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF Assessment: Hamas Not Yet at Breaking Point

The IDF has intensified its operations in Gaza City, with Division 36 joining heavy fighting in the city’s central neighborhoods. Forces are now focusing on dismantling Hamas’ underground tunnel network — a key element of the group’s strategy.

According to security officials, despite mounting military pressure and the evacuation of over 550,000 residents to the south, Hamas has not yet shown signs of conceding toward a hostage release deal. Egypt is continuing efforts to mediate behind the scenes.

https://x.com/mossadil/status/1970065660140028393?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Much left unsaid about encouragement to resist due to European and other nations declaring a country of ‘Palestine”.

The fight is slow and methodical in large part to the honeycomb of tunnels hiding Hamas fighters that have to be identified and neutralized.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

With international push to force a two state solution, Israel increasingly plans on annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

Qatar on Monday welcomed the recognition of a Palestinian state by Britain, Canada, Australia and Portugal, saying the move supported efforts to achieve a lasting peace in the region.

***
Kremlin Spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, stated that Russia supports a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, calling it the only viable path forward.

***
Britain has warned Israel against responding with annexation following the recognition of a Palestinian state. Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper clarified that the UK will not, for now, designate its consulate in East Jerusalem as an official embassy, saying it will “determine the next steps in the diplomatic process later.”

***
Starmer’s controversial decision to recognise a state of Palestine could lead to demands for the UK to pay more than £2 trillion in reparations to the country, legal experts have said.

Now legal experts have warned that it could also be a costly decision – because the new country would ask for eye-watering damages in compensation for land ‘taken from the Palestinian people’ when Britain relinquished control of the region after the Second World War.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who has a long history of threatening to sue Britain, is demanding ‘reparations in accordance with international law’ based on the value of the land which was under British rule between 1917 and 1948.

Some international law experts have described £2 trillion, roughly the size of Britain’s total economy, as a ‘good place to start’.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15118203/PMs-decision-recognise-state-Palestine-UK-2trillion-reparations.html

OBSERVATION - Reports that Abbas has already made the demand for reparations following UK recognition of “Palestine”.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Push for a two state ‘solution’ at the UN this week is not slowing IDF moves in Gaza. Estimated half of Gaza City has been evacuated, and with a third division committed, pressure will increase on remaining population to leave, freeing up more maneuver for IDF.

Eyes on UN as any two state resolution - non-binding on Israel - could trigger annexation.

Warnings to Lebanon to speed up disarmament of Hezbollah or Israel will

Lebanon -

An Israeli security official told Al Arabiya that Hezbollah is attempting to regroup, and Israel does not rule out another ground incursion into Lebanon if military action isn’t taken against the group.

Autumn has arrived here in the Redoubt, with morning temps going below 32 for the first time this season. Never fear, forecasts calling for 80 degree highs in a few days

Globalism / Great Reset –

The United States is considering imposing sanctions as soon as this week against the entire International Criminal Court, putting the court’s day-to-day operations in jeopardy in retaliation for investigations of suspected Israeli war crimes, six sources tell Reuters

Imposing sweeping sanctions on all court members could disrupt the functioning of the entire institution and prevent it from accessing banking institutions, thereby preventing it from paying salaries to its employees.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***

(FO) During a recent organizing call with far left activists, former Weather Underground member Linda Sue Evans called for the far left to “bring the war home,” and discussed the utility of “people’s war” with younger organizers and activists. Former Symbionese Liberation Army member James Killgore also joined the call to urge the far left to determine strategies to undermine U.S. military support for the Trump administration in order to “sustain a long-term liberation strategy.”

OBSERVATION - Growing ‘push’ from the aging violent communists of the past. They are part of the push to drive into a more kinetic stage of guerrilla warfare that they weren’t able to sustain in their youth.

***
(FO) A far left collective said the Trump administration’s threat to target far left organizations under the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations (RICO) Act could discourage and immobilize far left activists, and create the conditions for the Trump administration to “supersede this form of repression with something worse.” According to the post, the long-term prospects of the far left depend on maintaining solidarity against law enforcement and “taking up the kind of grassroots direct action tactics” that can be effective regardless of the government’s response.

OBSERVATION - “Direct Action” key word for violence in the form of vandalism or physical threat to people. As we’ve seen in the short term from shutting down USAID funding, RICO and other actions to dry up the money flow can have definite impact on actions.

***
Texas leftist Marynka Zarina Marquez has been arrested for allegedly trying to set a Christian church on fire in El Paso before a Charlie Kirk memorial event.

From Denton, where there are radical leftist groups and networks, Marquez’s social media is filled with pro-Democrat and anti-Trump posts. The church arson precedes the shooting of the ABC station in Sacramento, also allegedly by a Democrat who hates Trump.

OBSERVATION - More leftist violent action. They are feeling emboldened and encourage to start acting out on the calls to kill and destroy.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

***
President Trump signed an executive order designating the Antifa movement a “domestic terrorist organization” in the wake of Charlie Kirk’s political assassination nearly two weeks ago. The White House has signaled its intent to designate Antifa as a terror organization over the past week, but now it’s official
NOTE - This crosses over into CW2 as well.

***
Claims that the IRGC has issued the “Go” order to terror cells to start attacking Israeli and American interests across the world.
IMHO this is more of a lot of crying wolf. While we know these cells exist, evidence of such an order is very lacking.

IN RELATED - Former CIA Intelligence expert Sarah Adams says “the Terrorists are already here in America & the plan is now operational”

“There will be a very large attack on US Homeland”

OBSERVATION - She’s been repeating this for a better part of a year. She’s given previous time frames that haven’t panned out, so her claims are becoming more suspect.

The analyst in me says don’t rule her out entirely because the fundamental fact is we know there are cells here. Question is are they triggered to start.

***
A man has been charged with aiming a laser at Marine One Saturday while President Trump was on board, per the DOJ

Jacob Samuel Winkler has been charged with aiming the beam of a laser pointer at an aircraft, a FELONY, and is facing five years in prison.

OBSERVATION - FAFO

***
Secret Service reportedly seized over 100,000 SIM cards & 300 servers in NYC area capable of crashing cell networks or enabling surveillance, amid UN General Assembly. Ties to foreign nation & criminals found; no direct threat to event, but potential to disrupt comms for world leaders. - NY Times

OBSERVATION - Just who is behind this?

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Gold prices climbed to a fresh record high on Tuesday, bolstered by increased expectations of further U.S. rate cuts, as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech later in the day for further policy cues.
Spot gold rose 1% at $3,782.06 per ounce, as of 5:11 a.m. EST, a fresh record high.
U.S. gold futures for December delivery rose 0.7% to $3,801.70.

New Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for aggressive rate cuts on Monday, adding that the Fed was misreading how tight it has set monetary policy and will put the job market at risk, a view countered in remarks by three of his colleagues who feel the central bank needs to remain cautious about inflation.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors see two 25-basis point cuts, one each in October and December, with a 90% and 73% probability respectively.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/gold-powell-record/2025/09/23/id/1227459/

OBSERVATION - The fed is rightfully receiving flak over its prolonged delay in dropping rates. One could be convinced that it is deliberately trying to sabotage the economy to spite Trump.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The U.S. Navy has deployed yet another Arleigh Burke-Class Guided-Missile Destroyer to the Southern Caribbean Sea, with the USS Stockdale (DDG-106) now the fourth such ship to be operating in the region, alongside the USS Sampson (DDG-102), USS Gravely (DDG-107), and USS Jason Dunham (DDG-109). As part of the deployment, the destroyers, alongside a handful of other naval vessels are carrying out counter narco-trafficking operation off the coast of Latin America, while also participating in maritime exercises like the ongoing UNITAS 2025.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Last year, while Biden and his minions were still calling the shots at the FBI, the bureau launched a brazen undercover operation targeting incoming Border Czar Tom Homan. Federal agents, posing as shady businessmen, tried to bait Homan with a $50,000 bribe in exchange for help securing contracts under a future Trump administration. It was a manufactured setup, designed from the start to entrap a Trump ally.

The whole thing blew up in Biden’s face. When FBI Director Kash Patel and Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche reviewed the case, they immediately exposed it as a political hit job. “This matter originated under the previous administration,” they said in a joint statement. “They found no credible evidence of any criminal wrongdoing.”

Translation: Biden’s FBI wasted taxpayer dollars trying to entrap one of Trump’s top immigration advisors, and they failed.

“Mr. Homan never took the $50,000 that you’re referring to. So you should get your facts straight, number one,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Monday during the White House daily press briefing. “Number two, this was another example of the weaponization of the Biden Department of Justice against one of President Trump’s strongest and most vocal supporters in the midst of a presidential campaign.”

https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2025/09/22/bidens-fbi-tried-to-entrap-trumps-border-czar-before-the-election-n4943996

OBSERVATION - Evidence of the deep corruption that developed under biden and still likely is roaming the halls of the FBI building in DC. This is stuff of communist totalitarian regimes and not the United States.

***
Social media is buzzing with firsthand accounts of Americans leaving the Democratic Party. Many former Democrats are sharing why they’re making the shift, and the “Charlie Kirk Effect” has become a trending term to describe this mass political realignment.

OBSERVATION - I certainly hope this is the case, though I think the numbers switching may be over estimated. It has become pretty well documented that the vile leftist democrat touchdown dance over Kirk’s assassination has turned many people off from leftist causes. In this, more moderate democrats and independents have responded to the sharp leftward shift of the party in an unfavorable manner. The actual magnitude of the shift may only be seen is the Kirk assassination continues to reverberate into midterms next year or worst case, another assassination, successful or not, from a leftist rocks the nation.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump admin has barred Iranian diplomats in NY from Costco & other wholesale clubs, plus luxury goods over $1K, vehicles over $60K, without approval—targeting only Iran amid UN gatherings. “No shopping sprees for clerical elites while Iranians suffer,” State Dept. says. - AP

TRUMP Watch –

Donald Trump will take aim at “globalist institutions” and discuss his “vision for the world” in his address to the UN General Assembly later today, the White House says.
His speech is expected to start at around 09:50 EDT today, on the first official day of the assembly’s annual general debate of world leaders.

***
Following his address to the UN, Trump will be meeting with a number of world leaders, including for only the second time ever, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa.

Japan –

(FO) A Japanese Defense Ministry advisory panel is recommending Japan removes all restrictions on complete weapon systems exports to nations friendly with Japan and facing threats from other nations. It also recommended standing up state-owned defense factories, adding new systems to the Pacific-side defense network and loosening weapons export restrictions all as part of the “Defense Buildup Program.”

OBSERVATION - This is a big step, going beyond self imposed post WW2 laws restricting their military sector. Clearly in recognition of the growing threat from China

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

See Europe/NATO below for more specific comments.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Speaking to members of Russia’s Security Council, putin declared:
“Strategic stability in the world has begun to deteriorate due to the destructive steps of the West. The foundations for dialogue between nuclear-armed countries have been significantly lowered. Russia has warned the West again and again, but its initiatives have not received a clear response. Russia is ready to respond to threats—and not just in words.”

Economic Impact –

Reuters: Russia faces a fuel shortage as Ukrainian drone strikes cut refining by up to 20% on some days and reduced exports. Shortages of A-92 and A-95 reported in the Far East, Crimea, Volga, south and central regions. Private gas stations, 40% of the market, are shutting down due to lack of supply and high loans. Officials call it “temporary,” but traders admit the crisis is systemic.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight Russia launched 3 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 115 attack drones from multiple directions, about 60 of them Shaheds. Ukraine’s air defenses including aviation, SAMs, EW and mobile groups shot down or suppressed 103 drones. Missile and drone strikes hit 6 locations, with debris falling in 8 more.

Russian losses per 23/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+1010 men
+5 tanks
+53 artillery
+2 MLRS
+2 aircraft
+1 helicopter

Russian forces attempted a mechanized assault near Mala Tokmachka on the Orikhiv axis using light vehicles. The attack failed, equipment was destroyed and infantry trying to scatter was also taken out.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Pereizne village of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Russian Ministry of Defense claims shooting down 69 drones overnight, including in Moscow region. The Ukraine action caused the temporary closure of several Moscow area airports.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Pretty sure evidence is that Russia has picked up the tempo of its attacks, with another 1000+ day. It could be linked to trying to gain ground for tactical advantage prior to the mud season, losses due to effective Ukraine counter attacks in the northern areas of the front, or increase recon in force leading to the anticipated Fall offensive.

See Europe/NATO below on other Russian actions.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Russian Foreign Intelligence service accused Europe in preparing of occupation of Moldova, and that French and British troops have been already deployed in Odesa for this.

OBSERVATION - Russia has really ramped up the propaganda campaign of late. This report, tied in with airspace incursions, could be used for justification for kinetic strikes outside of Ukraine.

It also has used to rile up the residents of Transnistera and Russian supporters in Moldova with upcoming elections.

Crossing into a dangerous gray zone.

Poland –

Polish Prime Minister Tusk says “We will make a decision to shoot down flying objects without discussion when they violate our territory and fly over Poland. There is no room for debate here.”

However, he later adds he wants to have “100% certainty” that all of NATO sees it the same way, and says “You need to think twice before deciding on actions that could trigger a very acute phase of the conflict.”

https://x.com/faytuksnetwork/status/1970147368713507121?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Europe / NATO General –

What apparently was a coordinated drone incursion, two countries were affected overnight.

Copenhagen airport closed due to drone activity. Between two and four large drones spotted near Copenhagen Airport, police says.

Inbound flights are now also being diverted from Oslo Gardermoen Airport in Norway, following reports of unidentified drones operating in the airspace near the airport, similar to the ongoing incident in Denmark.

Two foreign nationals from Singapore were arrested in Oslo on Monday evening for flying a drone inside a no-fly zone, including over Akershus Fortress and the Opera House, Norwegian police report.

***
Russia says it was not involved in the drone flight over Copenhagen

OVERALL DRONE OBSERVATION - Given the aerial incursions by Russia into Poland, Romania and Estonia of late, the timing of not one but TWO UI drone incursions into Norway and Denmark raises the tensions with Russia even higher. No doubt in my formerly military mind that Russia is behind this and in a way freezing NATOs response to these violations. Further testing defensives and responses. This put the picture together along with rhetoric from putin threatening countries for their support of Ukraine in focus. putin will play this game for as long as he wants, and gets Nato tied up in knots. The only path out is to aggressively swat these things out of the sky - including Russian aircraft.

IMHO Russia is borderline overconfident in its ability to seize Ukraine via war that it is already preparing for the next push further into Europe. In my mind, I can’t conceive that Russia’s badly battered army trying to engage Poland on the ground. I do see potential for using strategic weapons. But that would invite use of similar weapons against Russia. Russia would be betting the west would be too afraid of the escalation of nukes by Russia to make this step.

***
Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson: “No country has the right to violate Swedish airspace. Sweden has the right to defend its skies, with force if necessary, and will do so.” Analyst Joakim Paasikivi noted that NATO would likely only shoot down a Russian jet if it ignored orders to leave.

***
Estonia signaled it is open to hosting British F-35A jets capable of carrying nuclear weapons, Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur told The Telegraph. The statement comes after three Russian MiG-31s violated Estonian airspace for 12 minutes last week, prompting NATO Article 4 consultations. While some allies, including Poland, vow to shoot down intruding aircraft, Pevkur urged proportionate, case-by-case responses. UK Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper said Britain is ready to confront Russian jets entering NATO airspace.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Ground action grows

- Hamas proposes a new hostage/ceasefire plan.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Rosh Hashanah, Sep 23 - 24

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Some 640,000 Palestinians have so far evacuated Gaza City to the Strip’s south, according to fresh Israeli army estimates. Around one million Palestinians were estimated to be residing in Gaza City before the Israeli army launched a major offensive against Hamas in the area. Civilians were ordered to evacuate to an Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza

***
Fox News is reporting that Hamas has written a letter to President Donald J. Trump, requesting guarantees of a 60-day ceasefire in the Gaza Strip in exchange for the release of half the remaining hostages, with the letter expected to be delivered to President Trump sometime this week, in the first major communication from Hamas’ leadership since Israel’s ballistic missile strike against a meeting of senior leaders in Qatar on September 9.

***
Hamas issued a statement recognizing Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron as “honorary Hamas members”

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

Spanish government: The Spanish Council of Ministers approved decisions to stop the genocide in Gaza.

Palestinian President: The war on Gaza must stop immediately and sustainably.

Guterres: I once again call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, the delivery of aid to the Strip, and the release of the hostages.

French President Emmanuel Macron announced France’s recognition of the State of Palestine at the New York Conference on the Two-State Solution

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The recognition of a “Palestinian” nation - with undefined or agreed to borders by a plethora of countries at the UN has no teeth, but would require a UN Security Council approval - dead in the water for at least the next three years. What these countries are working together towards is economic and social isolation of Israel as a way to punish them, while rewarding Hamas for its terrorism.

Hamas appears to be trying to build upon that international pressure in its latest hostage proposal of half the hostages being released with a guaranteed 60 day ceasefire. I don’t see this happening. Trump has been pretty firm of all hostages being released - period. Same with Israel. There are a number of other provisions in the proposal that are none starters as well. Trump is likely to condemn the two state push in his UN address today.

Another driver of Hama’s plea is that the Gaza City operation is not being stopped by their forces. With over 60% of the population evacuating from the city, Israel has greater maneuver ability to close in and destroy Hamas elements. Hamas is coming to realize its time is short so it will try anything to get a break in the action.

Local Gazan reports -to be taken cautiously - indicate IDF is squeezing Gaza City from both the north and south and doing so in an increasingly rapid manner.

On a slightly lighter note - still laughing over the fact that the PA / Abbas has filed for 2 TRILLION (British pounds) in reparations for British control of the area. That is bigger than the British economy for one year. Ka CHING.

A little sore this morning and didn’t sleep well. Was rear ended pretty hard yesterday in a car accident. Was going to retire my old car next spring, but now that has to be moved up. Still drivable with gorilla glue and duct tape.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The UN has announced it will need to cut $500m from their 2026 budget and will lay off 20% of its staff as it struggles to cope with a massive reduction in funding by the Trump administration. Trump has eliminated at least $1 billion in total funding from the UN.

The plan is likely to involve an initial minimum 3,000 job cuts out of a 35,000-strong main workforce, with eventual job losses at around 7,000. The overall UN core or regular budget would be cut from $3.7bn to about $3.2bn next year. It means reductions of 15.1% in resources and 18.8% in posts in the regular budget compared with the 2025 budget.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2025/09/un-faces-big-budget-cuts-and-job-losses-after-us-funding-dries-up/

OBSERVATION - Boo freeking hoo. After how the UN attempted to sabotage Trump’s speech, I think further cuts are warranted.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025

UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***

Convicted domestic terrorist and violent trans Antifa militant, Casey Goonan, was involved in a hammer attack on a women’s rights conference in San Francisco. He wore the Antifa black bloc uniform and hid his face, but was arrested:

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1970693077569315135?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Still another act of violence by radical leftists. Goonan has a history of such, so it took very little to spark another incident. Antifa et al on lookers will probably view this as an encouragement to them to do similar.
IIRC, hammers reportedly kill more people in the US than long rifles.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

On the second day of the second quarter, President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on goods from countries charging exorbitant tariffs on U.S. exports. By the quarter’s end, the U.S. trade deficit shrank by 42.9%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Tuesday.

The decrease in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $11.3 billion increase in goods exported and a $184.5 billion decline in goods imported:

- The U.S. trade deficit fell from $439.8 billion to $251.3 billion.
- As percent of current-dollar GDP, the deficit fell from 5.9% to 3.3%.
- Exports of goods and services rose $28.6 billion, while imports of the same fell $159.9 billion.
- Exports of goods increased $11.3 billion, while imports decreased $184.5 billion.
- Exports of services increased $2.1 billion, but imports of services increased $2.8 billion.

Additionally, the total trade deficit reported for the first quarter was revised down by $10.4 billion in Tuesday’s BEA report.

https://newsbusters.org/blogs/cnsnews/craig-bannister/2025/09/23/trade-deficit-plummets-429-second-quarter-under-trumps

OBSERVATION - Longer term effects of tariffs are still in the gonkulator, the biggest, lingering concern is elevation of the inflation. But on these numbers, things are improving

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

California Gov. Gavin Newsom last week signed a law granting the state the authority to set its own vaccine guidance based on the recommendations of professional organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), rather than on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recommendations.

California’s new law locks in the federal vaccine guidelines that were in place on Jan. 1, and allows the California Department of Public Health to issue new guidance, based on the recommendations of AAP, the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG).

Newsom signed the law on Sept. 17. The same day, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington issued joint vaccine guidance for the upcoming respiratory illness season, rather than accepting the latest CDC recommendations.

The states’ recommendations include COVID-19 and flu vaccines for children 6 months and up, and RSV vaccines for babies under 8 months and between 8-19 months who have risk factors, The Seattle Times reported.

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/california-passes-law-giving-state-authority-set-own-vaccine-guidance/

OBSERVATION - Kalifornia continues to go rogue and endangering the lives of thousands of children and stripping rights away from their parents.

POLITICAL FRONT –

President Donald Trump canceled a meeting with top congressional Democrats on Tuesday over “unserious and ridiculous demands” as the deadline to fund the government fast approaches.

But Trump nixed the meeting in a lengthy post on his social media platform Truth Social, where he blasted the duo for pushing “radical Left policies that nobody voted for.”

“I have decided that no meeting with their Congressional Leaders could possibly be productive,” Trump said.

OBSERVATION - Looks like a shut down is on, barring a last minute switch from democrat leadership. Democrats have played the ‘shut the govt’ down card so much it is worn out - and Trump isn’t playing their game, he holds all the cards.

Regarding funding bill, Schumer was quoted as saying that they wanted a ‘clean’ bill. How choice for once wanting such a thing. However, the trillions of add ons they want would make it a very dirty bill.

***
Reuters poll on which political party Americans think has a better plan to deal with the following issues:

Crime: Republicans +20
Immigration: R +18
Foreign conflict: R +12
Economy: R +10
Corruption: R+6
Gun control: R+4
Political extremism: R+4

OBSERVATION - We are a year out from the 2026 midterms, so these numbers can change, a lot. If these numbers hold, democrats look to be in a deep hole.

Democrats are failing to come up with counter policy proposals and are mired in the ‘hate Trump’ mode - still. Secondly, these numbers seem to be persistent across the nation and could form the basis for a national level campaign, much like Newt Gingrich put together to sweep the GOP into leading congress. This would be a challenge as many congressional / senate races are more on local issues than national. However, tapping into these policies could help swing more moderates and independents to the GOP.

The only thing is will the republicans once again snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory?

TRUMP Watch –

Yesterday, the escalator at UN headquarters immediately stoped as Trump and Melania step on it shortly after arriving. Then the teleprompter suddenly died and the mic cuts mid speech

Trump : “I don’t mind making this speech without a teleprompter, because the teleprompter is not working...I can only say whoever is operating this teleprompter is in big trouble.”

Trump : “All I got from the UN is a bad escalator and a bad teleprompter”

Trump then went on for 55 mins. 40 minutes over the time limit.

OBSERVATION - Classical, gold plated Trump lambasting the UN and then some. He took the lemons the UN threw at him and made lemonade.

However, the escalator incident is a dangerous harbinger. Watching it again - this was remarkably dangerous. If someone in the building wanted Trump assassinated this would have been a great way to freeze him.

This is one of the key reasons for the demand to investigate what happened. Rumors that UN staffers deliberately shut it down (along with the teleprompter and mic gigs).

Illegal Immigration –

President Trump just called out the UN for funding the invasion of America’s southern border:

“In 2024, the UN budgeted $372M in cash assistance to support migrants journeying into the United States... The UN also provided food, shelter, transportation and debit cards to illegal aliens... The UN is supposed to stop invasions, not create them and not finance them... In the United States we reject the idea that mass numbers of people from foreign lands can be permitted to travel halfway around the world, trample our borders, violate our sovereignty, cause unmitigated crime and deplete our social safety nets. We have reasserted that America belongs to the American people.”

OBSERVATION - The UN is an outgrowth of the globalist cabal and is one of their tools. We can see by the chaos uncontrolled immigration of Europe has created that the same is desired for the US as well. US axing a lot of funding that the UN diverted to this subversive action has slowed that agenda down here. It may well be too late for Europe to turn it around.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Economic Impact –

Russian news agencies are reporting Russia’s fuel shortage is now hitting Moscow, the suburbs, and even Leningrad Oblast. Lukoil has started banning canister sales at some stations, and businesses are reporting restrictions across the region.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

A drone attack on Ukraine: Russia launched 152 UAVs, including about 80 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukraine’s air defense, EW units, aviation, and mobile groups shot down or jammed 126 drones. Strikes were recorded in 7 locations; debris fell in 2 more.

Russian losses per 24/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+970 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+43 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 aircraft

Ukraine Drones have attacked Gazprom Salavat Neftekhim oil refinery once again this morning.

The Zenzavatka oil pumping station in Volgograd region is on fire again, according to FIRMS data. This facility, part of Transneft’s Volga pipeline network, was already attacked on September 20. Today’s fire suggests a fresh impact

Valuyki, Belgorod region, near the railway station. A large fire can be seen after explosions.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Elevated reported Russian losses continue. Unconfirmed reports from Russia milbloggers indicate that some of the penetrations that Russia achieved a few months ago have been pinched off and eliminated, with heavy Russian losses. By some reports, it seems Ukraine has rediscovered how to maneuver and strike at vulnerable spots in the Russian lines as well as cutting off tactical resupply to those units.

On a more strategic basis, Ukraine is continuing to hammer Russian oil production and refineries. This time around, they are double and triple tapping facilities, rather than the one and done attacks of last year. Singular attacks of the past took these refineries off line for a short period, but were repairable in a relatively short time. Now, multiple days worth of hits have done even greater damage in the long term and has really rippled out to the economy in general. All available fuel is being prioritized for military use and even that is suffering. Hard to mount a major offensive if you don’t have the fuel to fight the fight. And Ukraine has been giving these tactical fuel stores the treatment as well.

Another point is that the cold Russian winter is fast approaching and fuel shortages will make those in Moscow to feel the pinch and hopefully suck some support the war away from putin.

Poland –

Poland’s Foreign Minister, replying to President Trump’s statement that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace:

“Roger that.”

Europe / NATO General –

NATO nations appear to be conducting a nuclear exercise this evening. USAF E-6B up over EUCOM, B-2(s)over the Atlantic, bunch of French tankers up.

***
Danish Police: The drones that appeared in Copenhagen skies were operated by a professional and skilled entity, came from different directions and from a great distance. They do not rule out the possibility that they were launched from a ship at sea

***
Norway reveals that Russia has violated its airspace 3 times so far this year over Finnmark in the north and the Barents Sea.
It’s the first time Russia has violated Norway’s airspace in over 10 years.

***
OSINT and political analysts expect Russia will continue to test and push NATO’s “resolve” in Northern and Eastern Europe over the coming weeks, especially after President Trumps encouragement to shoot down intruding Russian aircraft. Escalation by Russia against Europe won’t stop until direct action is taken, and such direct action would likely need to entail burning MiGs and/or Sukhois.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Armored units reported penetrating into central Gaza City

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Rosh Hashanah, Sep 23 - 24

Trump: I’ve sought a Gaza ceasefire, but Hamas rejects peace offers. Recognizing a Palestinian state now rewards atrocities like October 7. Those who want peace must unite: release the hostages now

From Trump’s UN speech -

On Gaza, he made two key points:
• Recognition of a Palestinian state would be nothing but a prize for Hamas.
• No partial deal is acceptable. All hostages—20 living and 38 dead—must be returned at once!

OBSERVATION - Trump stuck a knife into Hamas’ latest hostage/ceasefire offer. All hostages or nothing. They have past the point of no return.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Arab sources reported that IDF armored units advanced along several routes inside Gaza City, as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots. The ground maneuvers came alongside continued Israeli Air Force strikes and artillery fire targeting terrorist infrastructure across the city

https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/09/23/reports-idf-tanks-advance-in-central-gaza-city/

***
The IDF dropped hundreds of thousands of leaflets with evacuation orders as it prepares to enter into the center of Gaza City. Nearly 600,000 people have already evacuated the city but an estimated number of 200,000 is still there refusing to leave and serve as a human shield for Hamas.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas’ latest hostage/ceasefire scam went down in flames yesterday in the UN. There will be no ceasefire as long as Hamas holds a single hostage.

Speaking of the UN, nations recognizing a Palestine “state” have little leverage to force Israel to stop the fight at this stage. Leveraging trade sanctions is about all they can do, but that isn’t very much.

As IDF pressure continues, the flood of Gaza City residents out to safe zones continues to increase. Hamas is losing control of the people for use as human shields.

With Rosh Hashanah now over, I expect Israel to increase the tempo of operations even further.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Iran’s government spokesperson says that Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) is buried “under the rubble of bombed nuclear facilities” and “unavailable.”

This comes as European states demand more information from Iran about the status of its HEU stockpile.

OBSERVATION - This was the general assessment after the US bombing. Probably not only blocked by rubble, but even having storage containers broken and uranium scattered to some degree. If that is the case, Iran would have to deal with a radioactive clean-up in order to even clear out the rubble and salvage any uranium under ground.

Egypt –

In the news several days ago. Israel asked the US to speak to Egypt to stand down from the military buildup opposite of Gaza. Such a build up is in violation of the signed peace accords that followed from the 1973 Yon Kippor war.

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