A little sore this morning and didn’t sleep well. Was rear ended pretty hard yesterday in a car accident. Was going to retire my old car next spring, but now that has to be moved up. Still drivable with gorilla glue and duct tape.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The UN has announced it will need to cut $500m from their 2026 budget and will lay off 20% of its staff as it struggles to cope with a massive reduction in funding by the Trump administration. Trump has eliminated at least $1 billion in total funding from the UN.
The plan is likely to involve an initial minimum 3,000 job cuts out of a 35,000-strong main workforce, with eventual job losses at around 7,000. The overall UN core or regular budget would be cut from $3.7bn to about $3.2bn next year. It means reductions of 15.1% in resources and 18.8% in posts in the regular budget compared with the 2025 budget.
OBSERVATION - Boo freeking hoo. After how the UN attempted to sabotage Trump’s speech, I think further cuts are warranted.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
Convicted domestic terrorist and violent trans Antifa militant, Casey Goonan, was involved in a hammer attack on a women’s rights conference in San Francisco. He wore the Antifa black bloc uniform and hid his face, but was arrested:
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1970693077569315135?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Still another act of violence by radical leftists. Goonan has a history of such, so it took very little to spark another incident. Antifa et al on lookers will probably view this as an encouragement to them to do similar.
IIRC, hammers reportedly kill more people in the US than long rifles.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
On the second day of the second quarter, President Donald Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on goods from countries charging exorbitant tariffs on U.S. exports. By the quarter’s end, the U.S. trade deficit shrank by 42.9%, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Tuesday.
The decrease in the trade deficit was primarily driven by a $11.3 billion increase in goods exported and a $184.5 billion decline in goods imported:
- The U.S. trade deficit fell from $439.8 billion to $251.3 billion.
- As percent of current-dollar GDP, the deficit fell from 5.9% to 3.3%.
- Exports of goods and services rose $28.6 billion, while imports of the same fell $159.9 billion.
- Exports of goods increased $11.3 billion, while imports decreased $184.5 billion.
- Exports of services increased $2.1 billion, but imports of services increased $2.8 billion.
Additionally, the total trade deficit reported for the first quarter was revised down by $10.4 billion in Tuesday’s BEA report.
OBSERVATION - Longer term effects of tariffs are still in the gonkulator, the biggest, lingering concern is elevation of the inflation. But on these numbers, things are improving
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics
California Gov. Gavin Newsom last week signed a law granting the state the authority to set its own vaccine guidance based on the recommendations of professional organizations, including the American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP), rather than on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) recommendations.
California’s new law locks in the federal vaccine guidelines that were in place on Jan. 1, and allows the California Department of Public Health to issue new guidance, based on the recommendations of AAP, the American Academy of Family Physicians (AAFP) and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG).
Newsom signed the law on Sept. 17. The same day, California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington issued joint vaccine guidance for the upcoming respiratory illness season, rather than accepting the latest CDC recommendations.
The states’ recommendations include COVID-19 and flu vaccines for children 6 months and up, and RSV vaccines for babies under 8 months and between 8-19 months who have risk factors, The Seattle Times reported.
OBSERVATION - Kalifornia continues to go rogue and endangering the lives of thousands of children and stripping rights away from their parents.
POLITICAL FRONT –
President Donald Trump canceled a meeting with top congressional Democrats on Tuesday over “unserious and ridiculous demands” as the deadline to fund the government fast approaches.
But Trump nixed the meeting in a lengthy post on his social media platform Truth Social, where he blasted the duo for pushing “radical Left policies that nobody voted for.”
“I have decided that no meeting with their Congressional Leaders could possibly be productive,” Trump said.
OBSERVATION - Looks like a shut down is on, barring a last minute switch from democrat leadership. Democrats have played the ‘shut the govt’ down card so much it is worn out - and Trump isn’t playing their game, he holds all the cards.
Regarding funding bill, Schumer was quoted as saying that they wanted a ‘clean’ bill. How choice for once wanting such a thing. However, the trillions of add ons they want would make it a very dirty bill.
***
Reuters poll on which political party Americans think has a better plan to deal with the following issues:
Crime: Republicans +20
Immigration: R +18
Foreign conflict: R +12
Economy: R +10
Corruption: R+6
Gun control: R+4
Political extremism: R+4
OBSERVATION - We are a year out from the 2026 midterms, so these numbers can change, a lot. If these numbers hold, democrats look to be in a deep hole.
Democrats are failing to come up with counter policy proposals and are mired in the ‘hate Trump’ mode - still. Secondly, these numbers seem to be persistent across the nation and could form the basis for a national level campaign, much like Newt Gingrich put together to sweep the GOP into leading congress. This would be a challenge as many congressional / senate races are more on local issues than national. However, tapping into these policies could help swing more moderates and independents to the GOP.
The only thing is will the republicans once again snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory?
TRUMP Watch –
Yesterday, the escalator at UN headquarters immediately stoped as Trump and Melania step on it shortly after arriving. Then the teleprompter suddenly died and the mic cuts mid speech
Trump : “I don’t mind making this speech without a teleprompter, because the teleprompter is not working...I can only say whoever is operating this teleprompter is in big trouble.”
Trump : “All I got from the UN is a bad escalator and a bad teleprompter”
Trump then went on for 55 mins. 40 minutes over the time limit.
OBSERVATION - Classical, gold plated Trump lambasting the UN and then some. He took the lemons the UN threw at him and made lemonade.
However, the escalator incident is a dangerous harbinger. Watching it again - this was remarkably dangerous. If someone in the building wanted Trump assassinated this would have been a great way to freeze him.
This is one of the key reasons for the demand to investigate what happened. Rumors that UN staffers deliberately shut it down (along with the teleprompter and mic gigs).
Illegal Immigration –
President Trump just called out the UN for funding the invasion of America’s southern border:
“In 2024, the UN budgeted $372M in cash assistance to support migrants journeying into the United States... The UN also provided food, shelter, transportation and debit cards to illegal aliens... The UN is supposed to stop invasions, not create them and not finance them... In the United States we reject the idea that mass numbers of people from foreign lands can be permitted to travel halfway around the world, trample our borders, violate our sovereignty, cause unmitigated crime and deplete our social safety nets. We have reasserted that America belongs to the American people.”
OBSERVATION - The UN is an outgrowth of the globalist cabal and is one of their tools. We can see by the chaos uncontrolled immigration of Europe has created that the same is desired for the US as well. US axing a lot of funding that the UN diverted to this subversive action has slowed that agenda down here. It may well be too late for Europe to turn it around.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Economic Impact –
Russian news agencies are reporting Russia’s fuel shortage is now hitting Moscow, the suburbs, and even Leningrad Oblast. Lukoil has started banning canister sales at some stations, and businesses are reporting restrictions across the region.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A drone attack on Ukraine: Russia launched 152 UAVs, including about 80 Shaheds, from multiple directions. Ukraine’s air defense, EW units, aviation, and mobile groups shot down or jammed 126 drones. Strikes were recorded in 7 locations; debris fell in 2 more.
Russian losses per 24/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+970 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+43 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 aircraft
Ukraine Drones have attacked Gazprom Salavat Neftekhim oil refinery once again this morning.
The Zenzavatka oil pumping station in Volgograd region is on fire again, according to FIRMS data. This facility, part of Transneft’s Volga pipeline network, was already attacked on September 20. Today’s fire suggests a fresh impact
Valuyki, Belgorod region, near the railway station. A large fire can be seen after explosions.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Elevated reported Russian losses continue. Unconfirmed reports from Russia milbloggers indicate that some of the penetrations that Russia achieved a few months ago have been pinched off and eliminated, with heavy Russian losses. By some reports, it seems Ukraine has rediscovered how to maneuver and strike at vulnerable spots in the Russian lines as well as cutting off tactical resupply to those units.
On a more strategic basis, Ukraine is continuing to hammer Russian oil production and refineries. This time around, they are double and triple tapping facilities, rather than the one and done attacks of last year. Singular attacks of the past took these refineries off line for a short period, but were repairable in a relatively short time. Now, multiple days worth of hits have done even greater damage in the long term and has really rippled out to the economy in general. All available fuel is being prioritized for military use and even that is suffering. Hard to mount a major offensive if you don’t have the fuel to fight the fight. And Ukraine has been giving these tactical fuel stores the treatment as well.
Another point is that the cold Russian winter is fast approaching and fuel shortages will make those in Moscow to feel the pinch and hopefully suck some support the war away from putin.
Poland –
Poland’s Foreign Minister, replying to President Trump’s statement that NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft if they enter their airspace:
“Roger that.”
Europe / NATO General –
NATO nations appear to be conducting a nuclear exercise this evening. USAF E-6B up over EUCOM, B-2(s)over the Atlantic, bunch of French tankers up.
***
Danish Police: The drones that appeared in Copenhagen skies were operated by a professional and skilled entity, came from different directions and from a great distance. They do not rule out the possibility that they were launched from a ship at sea
***
Norway reveals that Russia has violated its airspace 3 times so far this year over Finnmark in the north and the Barents Sea.
It’s the first time Russia has violated Norway’s airspace in over 10 years.
***
OSINT and political analysts expect Russia will continue to test and push NATO’s “resolve” in Northern and Eastern Europe over the coming weeks, especially after President Trumps encouragement to shoot down intruding Russian aircraft. Escalation by Russia against Europe won’t stop until direct action is taken, and such direct action would likely need to entail burning MiGs and/or Sukhois.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.
Key overnight developments -
- Armored units reported penetrating into central Gaza City
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Rosh Hashanah, Sep 23 - 24
Trump: I’ve sought a Gaza ceasefire, but Hamas rejects peace offers. Recognizing a Palestinian state now rewards atrocities like October 7. Those who want peace must unite: release the hostages now
From Trump’s UN speech -
On Gaza, he made two key points:
• Recognition of a Palestinian state would be nothing but a prize for Hamas.
• No partial deal is acceptable. All hostages—20 living and 38 dead—must be returned at once!
OBSERVATION - Trump stuck a knife into Hamas’ latest hostage/ceasefire offer. All hostages or nothing. They have past the point of no return.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Arab sources reported that IDF armored units advanced along several routes inside Gaza City, as part of Operation Gideon’s Chariots. The ground maneuvers came alongside continued Israeli Air Force strikes and artillery fire targeting terrorist infrastructure across the city
https://www.israelhayom.com/2025/09/23/reports-idf-tanks-advance-in-central-gaza-city/
***
The IDF dropped hundreds of thousands of leaflets with evacuation orders as it prepares to enter into the center of Gaza City. Nearly 600,000 people have already evacuated the city but an estimated number of 200,000 is still there refusing to leave and serve as a human shield for Hamas.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas’ latest hostage/ceasefire scam went down in flames yesterday in the UN. There will be no ceasefire as long as Hamas holds a single hostage.
Speaking of the UN, nations recognizing a Palestine “state” have little leverage to force Israel to stop the fight at this stage. Leveraging trade sanctions is about all they can do, but that isn’t very much.
As IDF pressure continues, the flood of Gaza City residents out to safe zones continues to increase. Hamas is losing control of the people for use as human shields.
With Rosh Hashanah now over, I expect Israel to increase the tempo of operations even further.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Iran’s government spokesperson says that Iran’s highly enriched uranium (HEU) is buried “under the rubble of bombed nuclear facilities” and “unavailable.”
This comes as European states demand more information from Iran about the status of its HEU stockpile.
OBSERVATION - This was the general assessment after the US bombing. Probably not only blocked by rubble, but even having storage containers broken and uranium scattered to some degree. If that is the case, Iran would have to deal with a radioactive clean-up in order to even clear out the rubble and salvage any uranium under ground.
Egypt –
In the news several days ago. Israel asked the US to speak to Egypt to stand down from the military buildup opposite of Gaza. Such a build up is in violation of the signed peace accords that followed from the 1973 Yon Kippor war.
You're okay, I hope!
Thanks for the daily updates and global synopsis, you do an excellent job for a heavily laden report.
Thanks Godzilla. I’m glad you are OK. President Trump’s UN speech was fabulous.
Thanks for your concern. Feeling less stiff. Diagnosed with muscle sprains and strains.
Today seems to be very packed. Domestic terror has increased overnight while other chaos is brewing in DC.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
At this time truckloads of anti-scale fencing are being delivered to the White House in Washington, D.C. Such fencing is typically used during periods of civil unrest or heightened national security concerns. No official explanation has been provided for its sudden deployment.
OBSERVATION - With the govt shut down fast approaching, it would seem the WH is preparing its defenses against potential rioting by the left. Such rioting may be stimulated in part by threatened firings of govt employees
***
A Dallas ICE facility came under sniper fire from the roof an adjacent building. The shooter hit three detainees, killing two and seriously wounding the third. He killed himself as police closed in on him. No ICE agent was injured.
The shooter has been identified as Joshua Jahn. Jahn comes from a liberal bi-racial family in Fairview, Texas. His mother is critical of the gun laws in her state. His sister, Kioko Jahn, is a woke woman who was a supporter of Beto O’Rourke. He left behind a literal anti-ICE message on a rifle cartridges where he killed himself.
The attack occurred in the context of months of Democrat politicians, liberals and leftists encouraging violent direct action against ICE. Antifa and far-left extremists have been releasing names, photos and addresses of agents, urging comrades to kill them. In July, members of a North Texas Antifa cell allegedly carried out a shooting ambush on an ICE facility in Alvarado. One officer was shot in the neck, but narrowly survived. The nightly violent attacks on the ICE facility in Portland by Antifa remain ongoing.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1970936239894430053?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - There is a massive effort by the MSM to muddy up the clear indicators that instead of leftist violence, this is MAGA violence.
This is the third, recent incident of writing propaganda on the bullets. Luigi Mangione wrote messages on his rounds, in addition to Tyler Robinson. One could add the shooter’s writing on his magazines in the Minnesota Catholic school shooting too. In all these instances, leftist slogans were used. MSM has been trying to say this was influenced by extreme right wingers.
The purpose of sending a message is the whole point of terrorism. “Do what I want, or else!”
Feeding these mental malfeasants is the steady drum beat not only of the marxists on social media, but from national political leaders. House minority leader Hakim has been calling ICE “gestapo” and threatening to ‘unmask’ them and dox them.
Presidential hopeful Gavin Newsom, three days ago: “To ICE: Unmask. What are you afraid of?”
Last night Newsom went on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Tuesday night and told the lingering handful of leftist ideologues who like their propaganda served up as stale and condescending faux-comedy that Trump was using ICE as his “private domestic army”
This is just a especially small selection of the anti Trump/anti- ICE being spread. Social media like Reddit sees leftist almost literally foaming at the mouth for more blood.
BOTTOM LINE - The left has let genie out of the bottle, there’s no putting it back. I fully expect even more politically based attacks, most focused on ICE / DHS facilities in both the near and far term. In the far term, these attacks will spread to republican congressional candidates.
Right now the trend is apparent ‘lone wolf’ attacks, with minimal if any group organization, just a demented leftist taking action on the vile rhetoric they’ve been feeding on. The only outlier has been the ambush earlier in TX of an ICE facility, with one officer hit in the neck and 12 antifa followers (and members of the local John Brown gun club) arrested. Expansion to more sophisticated attacks is the dangerous trend that could further develop.
RELATED - Trump says he will sign an executive order this week to dismantle domestic terrorism networks after the deadly shooting at an ICE office in Dallas. He blamed “radical left Democrats” for inciting violence
***
Suspected members of terrorist network Antifa and other far-left extremists were arrested after trying to besiege a federal building in Eugene, Ore. This was part of an anti-government direct action to target ICE. They are now facing federal charges.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1971000687929811194?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - This assault was advertised by Rose City Antifa as a call to arms. Those arrested face federal charges, not the local charges they are used to dealing with (basically a revolving door at the police station).
***
Andy Ngo just revealed that an Antifa website is calling for more attacks on ICE facilities. This news comes in the wake of a leftist firing on the ICE facility in Dallas this morning.
Here’s what he writes:
“An Antifa blog site is issuing a call for further attacks on @ICEgov facilities across the country.
The post also explains Antifa’s ideology: sociopathy, chaos, destruction and violence for the sake of “becoming ungovernable.” This is why Antifa’s focus changes from Occupy-related rioting to BLM to trantifa. Anything they can use to incite violence, they will exploit.
“Every fist that hurls a piece of concrete through a bank or an ICE agent’s car window has the potential to ignite a wildfire … For some of us, chaos and destruction are the only activities in which we experience life as liberated creativity.””
https://therightscoop.com/breaking-antifa-site-issues-call-for-more-attacks-on-ice-facilities/
OBSERVATION - The reported website is Anarchistnews and its actions reflect a growing call for violence across the political spectrum, with a lot of focus on ICE.
***
Marxists on social media call for more violence
“Create no-go zones for federal forces”
Crimethinc, one of the largest and most influential Antifa organizing sites, released a guide explaining how Antifa and their co-conspirators organize to target the U.S. government.
It explains that one should form “tight-knit” cells for fundraising, “intelligence gathering” and communications. They suggest committing violence to pressure agencies, politicians and institutions into cutting off ties with
@ICEgov
.
https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1970840191179845965
OBSERVATION - Movement moving from organizing to direct actions (violence)
***
The John Brown Club at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., is advertising for new members by using one of the phrases written on the Charlie Kirk assassin’s bullet casing and proclaiming that they celebrate the deaths of Nazis.
They are using the phrase written on the casing of one of the bullets found with Kirk’s killer - “Hey Facist Catch”.
https://notthebee.com/article/so-this-is-a-poster-at-georgetown-university-in-dc
OBSERVATION - The move / calls to open violence since Kirk’s murder has been astonishing. Those calls for violence were in the background prior, but now it seems the leftists have become more bold in their efforts to use violence over other political actions.
***
(FO) Forward Observer reports -
On a recent call, the co-executive directors of Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing network, said they had an hour-long meeting to discuss which color to select to represent their protest and resistance movement.
Asked about a color or “national symbol of unity to stand against authoritarianism or for pro-democracy,” co-executive director Leah Greenberg said, “We agree this is, like, a need and what we really want to do is try and figure out, like, what’s already starting to organically take off that we can collectively come in together on… This is something that we’re very much thinking about right now.”
Ezra Levin, her counterpart, added: “So, this group, once we have something [a color and symbol], we are going to be asking all of y’all to help be the first movers on this to make the thing a thing. Hopefully, we’ll be ready to come back here soon and try to push on something like that.”
Why It Matters: (FO analysis) Symbols are a critical part of a resistance or revolutionary movement. Historically, the “Color” in “Color Revolutions” signifies the adoption of a revolutionary color (and sometimes a symbol) to represent their national identity, values, and goals. Indivisible leaders hope their chosen color will become ubiquitous among activists, especially as they move into the organized resistance phase, where activists will be arrested for nonviolent tactics such as occupations and sit-ins. This color is intended to galvanize national unity against the Trump administration heading into the 2028 general election.
MY OBSERVATION - This developing “color revolution” organization reminds me of various guerrilla operations. One example is the IRA, which had a political element and a lethal element. Indivisible et al are forming the visible, political element in an effort to increase support in its protests against Trump and serve as a recruiting pool for the lethal element.
What level of success will Indivisible et al have with this color campaign? To date, their protests have been heavily supported by astroturf efforts and the majority of the participants being older white people. Ongoing leftist violence is producing a pushback to Indivisible and swinging public opinion in Trump’s favor. Spontaneity of participation is very lacking.
FWIW, the leading candidates for color are yellow and black.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A KC-135 and an E-3, alongside an unknown number of fighter jets, were scrambled overnight due to unknown aircraft(s), likely Russian, operating in or near the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
OBSERVATION - This harkens back to cold war days. However, the deployment of these two planes suggests a larger response than normal.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The WH has passed orders down to the various department to plan for mass firings of individuals should the democrats force a govt shutdown. This condition clearly hands reductions of govt workers into Trumps hand without a lot of potential for lawsuits. The critical emergency of a shutdown more than suffices.
***
Former FBI Director James Comey is expected to be indicted in the Eastern District of Virginia in the coming days, MSNBC reported Wednesday, citing three sources.
“The full extent of the charges being prepared against Comey is unclear, but the sources believe that at least one element of the indictment—if it goes forward—will accuse him of lying to Congress during his testimony on September 30, 2020 about whether he authorized a leak of information,” an MSNBC reporter wrote on X.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/james-comey-fbi-indicted/2025/09/24/id/1227706/
OBSERVATION - Notably cautious about an indictment/arrest since the sourcing is coming thru MSM. One can only hope this is the first of many.
TRUMP Watch –
UN probe finds Trump escalator halt was accident, not plot against president
OBSERVATION - Other experts say BS, that the alleged system to stop an escalator doesn’t work in that fashion.
As I said yesterday, the act may on the surface seem mild, but it posed a physical threat to the President in that is could have provided an opportunity for an assassination attempt due to the confusion and freezing the President’s movements.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Russia continues to be more aggressive in both their rhetoric as well as direct actions against NATO and the US. They have caused a lot of turmoil in the west over its incursions and the response from the west has been weak - encouraging even more actions by Russia.
But Russia may be waking up to the growing deadline in 2026 when much of their monetary and military reserves are consumed, making it very difficult to sustain operations at their current level and intensity. This could move putin to become more risk taking on the ground in an effort to gain leverage towards an essential surrender of Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
Gazprom’s Astrakhan oil refinery has been forced to suspend operations due to a Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week, taking out nearly 3 million gallons per day of gas and diesel production.
Per a source at the plant “A shutdown until November is the best-case scenario.”
Around 360 gas stations in Russia have shut down due to fuel shortages, according to Russian media. The crisis is most severe in the south, with a 14% drop in stations, while in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol nearly half have closed.
***
Russia’s finance ministry has proposed raising VAT from 20% to 22% in 2026 to fund the war and cover a growing deficit. The hike would bring in around $14.3 billion, while defence spending remains at record levels.
OBSERVATION - For those unfamiliar with a VAT, it is like a sales tax on steroids. Every component of a product is taxed along every step of production. In Germany, that amounted to nearly 15-20% of the cost in the late 80s early 90s IIRC.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 176 attack drones overnight, including Shaheds and Gerans, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense, aviation, EW units and mobile groups shot down or suppressed 150 of them across the country. 13 drones hit 8 locations, with debris falling in one more.
Russian losses per 25/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+940 men
+2 AFVs
+38 artillery
+5 MLRS
+4 AD systems
+1 aircraft
The Russian Federation attacked the energy infrastructure of Vinnytsia region
Russian monitoring channels reported multiple UAV threats: alerts in Yevpatoria, Feodosiya, Kirovske, Taganrog, Azov, Donetsk area, Horlivka, and along the Kurakhove–Volnovakha–Taganrog axis. Several drone groups are detected heading toward occupied Crimea and Donbas.
Ukraine drones struck a chemical plant in Belorechensk district, Krasnodar region. A fire broke out and staff had to be evacuated, according to local reports.
Ukrainian naval drones struck oil terminals in Tuapse and Novorossiysk, paralyzing operations at Transneft’s facility and the CPC terminal used to load tankers, including Russia’s shadow fleet, RBC-Ukraine reports.
A pier at Tuapse port was hit. Russian return fire caused damage to civilian homes and cars, sparking panic in Novorossiysk, Tuapse and even Sochi, where beaches were evacuated.
Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber while it was conducting a bombing run on the city of Zaporizhia early this morning.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Reported Russian losses remain moderately high. Various OSINT analyst are reporting that Russian and Ukraine both have made gains in various portions of the front.
I am also seeing reports that Ukraine is planning its own offensive in the near future. Hopefully, it will be better planned than the one in 2023 that served to only have much of their new equipment decimated by Russian fire. Word is that Ukraine is asking for a lot of intel from the US in support of such an operation. Ukrainian military leadership has stepped up its game in recent months, evidenced by increasingly successful small scale counter attacks, and the more strategic efforts to hurt Russian oil production.
Potentially related are Trump’s most recent comments saying that Ukraine could ‘win’ back territory. Is this a reference to the suspected offensive?
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia began to significantly surge its “Matryoshka” (nesting doll) and “Overload” social media disinformation campaigns targeting Moldova likely signaling the start of Russia’s multipronged effort to influence the September 28 parliamentary elections.
NewsGuard, a service that evaluates and rates the credibility of information sources, reported in July 2025 that the Matryoshka campaign spread 39 false claims targeting Moldova, including many claims about Sandu’s and PAS’s alleged corruption, between mid-April and mid-July 2025 after not targeting Moldova at all previously.
Poland –
Poland is moving forward without waiting for NATO or EU approval to respond to Russia drone/missile threats. The government wants to restore rapid-response powers taken away in 2022, adopting a “shoot first, ask later” principle to deal with cross-border threats.
Europe / NATO General –
Denmark says drones flown over its airports appear to be the work of a “professional actor” but there was no evidence of Russian involvement, after such activity disrupted the its airspace for the second time in a week.
Aalborg airport was forced to shut down for several hours on Wednesday evening after green lights were spotted overhead, while Billund airport also briefly closed. Three smaller airports also reported drone activity.
Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told a news conference that the “hybrid attack” was part of a “systematic operation”, but said the devices had been launched locally.
A hybrid attack uses a mix of military and non-military tactics and is designed to interfere with a nation’s infrastructure or institutions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7401vk4lgzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
OBSERVATION - These drone incursions appear to be very similar to those that affected a number of cities in Eastern US a few months ago.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF ground forces continue to press into Gaza City
- Globalists at the UN continue to demand a ceasefire - absent hostage returns.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed early Thursday morning for a visit to the United States. Netanyahu will speak at the UN assembly on Friday morning.
Before takeoff, Netanyahu said, “At the UN General Assembly, I will speak our truth. I will condemn those leaders who, instead of denouncing the murderers, rapists, and child burners, want to give them a state in the heart of the Land of Israel. That will not happen.”
Netanyahu: The war goals I agree on with Trump are to return all hostages, defeat Hamas, and expand the circle of peace.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Locals report continued heavy air and artillery strikes all over Gaza City.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
After a period of relative inaction, a Houthi drone hit the Red Sea city of Eilat. 2 civilians were seriously injured and 17 lightly injured.
A ballistic missile was later aunched from Yemen but failed and fell on its way to Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Macron: We must demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as clear humanitarian measures, and end this war once and for all.
Spain to send navy ship to protect Gaza aid flotilla after reported drone attacks off Greece; Italy dispatched vessel earlier
NOTE - So called drone attack was participants misfiring a flare gun.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The operation to seize Gaza City will continue in the face of European opposition. Netanyahu has full support from Trump, and that is what matters.
Trump’s demand of all hostages being released at once pretty much killed Hamas’ latest “offer”.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Satellite images published and analyzed by the Associated Press show that the Islamic Republic has begun rebuilding missile-production sites that were damaged during the 12-day war in June by Israel, but a key component still appears to be missing — large mixers/agitators needed to produce solid propellant for those weapons.
OBSERVATION - Israel took out the solid fuel mixers in their first air strike following Iran’s first missile attack. These are very expensive and hard to obtain.
Some assess that the accelerated work is an effort to get it done before ‘snap back’ sanctions return.
Such restoration of facilities may not be enough for another round of Israeli airstrikes unless Iran is able to get a solid fuel mixer to put fuel into any rockets being built.
Syria -
NOTE - Threat Level is cleared due to stability in S Syria.
Netanyahu’s office: Our interests in the negotiations include demilitarizing southwestern Syria and preserving the safety of the Druze.
Turkey –
With recognition of the fake state of Palestine, Turkey’s dictator Erdogan is now pushing for recognition of another fake entity — the so-called “Northern Cyprus.” In reality, it’s occupied Cypriot land where Ankara resettled hundreds of thousands of Turks to alter its demography.
OBSERVATIONS - Cyprus is the flash point of Turkish / Greek hostilities of the past several decades plus. Many have questioned why NATO retains Turkey as a member state in the face of a standing war against Greece.
Misc of Note –
Some additional meanderings of my thoughts out loud.
A lot of uncertainty in my preparations planning in the face of rising leftist violence and assassination operations. Here in the Redoubt we don’t have that many ICE facilities, however, ones that we do have recently were facing protests by leftists likely affiliated with Antifa coming out of Washington State.
But is isn’t just ICE, the leftists have been calling out threats to Christians as well, putting Churches and schools in their scopes. There are plenty of loose nut jobs out there that have been radicalized to act on their own - we’ve seen a lot of that. It is the move to larger, more organized attacks that concern me and what impact it will have on me and my family.
As always, the biggest threats now are in blue, urban/metro areas. However threats have considerably risen to those of us in more rural areas as well. Fully defining that threat is difficult and I don’t have an answer at the moment to drive my preparations.
Best current advice is to carry and keep your head on a swivel.