Thanks for your concern. Feeling less stiff. Diagnosed with muscle sprains and strains.
Today seems to be very packed. Domestic terror has increased overnight while other chaos is brewing in DC.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
At this time truckloads of anti-scale fencing are being delivered to the White House in Washington, D.C. Such fencing is typically used during periods of civil unrest or heightened national security concerns. No official explanation has been provided for its sudden deployment.
OBSERVATION - With the govt shut down fast approaching, it would seem the WH is preparing its defenses against potential rioting by the left. Such rioting may be stimulated in part by threatened firings of govt employees
***
A Dallas ICE facility came under sniper fire from the roof an adjacent building. The shooter hit three detainees, killing two and seriously wounding the third. He killed himself as police closed in on him. No ICE agent was injured.
The shooter has been identified as Joshua Jahn. Jahn comes from a liberal bi-racial family in Fairview, Texas. His mother is critical of the gun laws in her state. His sister, Kioko Jahn, is a woke woman who was a supporter of Beto O’Rourke. He left behind a literal anti-ICE message on a rifle cartridges where he killed himself.
The attack occurred in the context of months of Democrat politicians, liberals and leftists encouraging violent direct action against ICE. Antifa and far-left extremists have been releasing names, photos and addresses of agents, urging comrades to kill them. In July, members of a North Texas Antifa cell allegedly carried out a shooting ambush on an ICE facility in Alvarado. One officer was shot in the neck, but narrowly survived. The nightly violent attacks on the ICE facility in Portland by Antifa remain ongoing.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1970936239894430053?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - There is a massive effort by the MSM to muddy up the clear indicators that instead of leftist violence, this is MAGA violence.
This is the third, recent incident of writing propaganda on the bullets. Luigi Mangione wrote messages on his rounds, in addition to Tyler Robinson. One could add the shooter’s writing on his magazines in the Minnesota Catholic school shooting too. In all these instances, leftist slogans were used. MSM has been trying to say this was influenced by extreme right wingers.
The purpose of sending a message is the whole point of terrorism. “Do what I want, or else!”
Feeding these mental malfeasants is the steady drum beat not only of the marxists on social media, but from national political leaders. House minority leader Hakim has been calling ICE “gestapo” and threatening to ‘unmask’ them and dox them.
Presidential hopeful Gavin Newsom, three days ago: “To ICE: Unmask. What are you afraid of?”
Last night Newsom went on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert Tuesday night and told the lingering handful of leftist ideologues who like their propaganda served up as stale and condescending faux-comedy that Trump was using ICE as his “private domestic army”
This is just a especially small selection of the anti Trump/anti- ICE being spread. Social media like Reddit sees leftist almost literally foaming at the mouth for more blood.
BOTTOM LINE - The left has let genie out of the bottle, there’s no putting it back. I fully expect even more politically based attacks, most focused on ICE / DHS facilities in both the near and far term. In the far term, these attacks will spread to republican congressional candidates.
Right now the trend is apparent ‘lone wolf’ attacks, with minimal if any group organization, just a demented leftist taking action on the vile rhetoric they’ve been feeding on. The only outlier has been the ambush earlier in TX of an ICE facility, with one officer hit in the neck and 12 antifa followers (and members of the local John Brown gun club) arrested. Expansion to more sophisticated attacks is the dangerous trend that could further develop.
RELATED - Trump says he will sign an executive order this week to dismantle domestic terrorism networks after the deadly shooting at an ICE office in Dallas. He blamed “radical left Democrats” for inciting violence
***
Suspected members of terrorist network Antifa and other far-left extremists were arrested after trying to besiege a federal building in Eugene, Ore. This was part of an anti-government direct action to target ICE. They are now facing federal charges.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1971000687929811194?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - This assault was advertised by Rose City Antifa as a call to arms. Those arrested face federal charges, not the local charges they are used to dealing with (basically a revolving door at the police station).
***
Andy Ngo just revealed that an Antifa website is calling for more attacks on ICE facilities. This news comes in the wake of a leftist firing on the ICE facility in Dallas this morning.
Here’s what he writes:
“An Antifa blog site is issuing a call for further attacks on @ICEgov facilities across the country.
The post also explains Antifa’s ideology: sociopathy, chaos, destruction and violence for the sake of “becoming ungovernable.” This is why Antifa’s focus changes from Occupy-related rioting to BLM to trantifa. Anything they can use to incite violence, they will exploit.
“Every fist that hurls a piece of concrete through a bank or an ICE agent’s car window has the potential to ignite a wildfire … For some of us, chaos and destruction are the only activities in which we experience life as liberated creativity.””
https://therightscoop.com/breaking-antifa-site-issues-call-for-more-attacks-on-ice-facilities/
OBSERVATION - The reported website is Anarchistnews and its actions reflect a growing call for violence across the political spectrum, with a lot of focus on ICE.
***
Marxists on social media call for more violence
“Create no-go zones for federal forces”
Crimethinc, one of the largest and most influential Antifa organizing sites, released a guide explaining how Antifa and their co-conspirators organize to target the U.S. government.
It explains that one should form “tight-knit” cells for fundraising, “intelligence gathering” and communications. They suggest committing violence to pressure agencies, politicians and institutions into cutting off ties with
@ICEgov
.
https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1970840191179845965
OBSERVATION - Movement moving from organizing to direct actions (violence)
***
The John Brown Club at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C., is advertising for new members by using one of the phrases written on the Charlie Kirk assassin’s bullet casing and proclaiming that they celebrate the deaths of Nazis.
They are using the phrase written on the casing of one of the bullets found with Kirk’s killer - “Hey Facist Catch”.
https://notthebee.com/article/so-this-is-a-poster-at-georgetown-university-in-dc
OBSERVATION - The move / calls to open violence since Kirk’s murder has been astonishing. Those calls for violence were in the background prior, but now it seems the leftists have become more bold in their efforts to use violence over other political actions.
***
(FO) Forward Observer reports -
On a recent call, the co-executive directors of Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing network, said they had an hour-long meeting to discuss which color to select to represent their protest and resistance movement.
Asked about a color or “national symbol of unity to stand against authoritarianism or for pro-democracy,” co-executive director Leah Greenberg said, “We agree this is, like, a need and what we really want to do is try and figure out, like, what’s already starting to organically take off that we can collectively come in together on… This is something that we’re very much thinking about right now.”
Ezra Levin, her counterpart, added: “So, this group, once we have something [a color and symbol], we are going to be asking all of y’all to help be the first movers on this to make the thing a thing. Hopefully, we’ll be ready to come back here soon and try to push on something like that.”
Why It Matters: (FO analysis) Symbols are a critical part of a resistance or revolutionary movement. Historically, the “Color” in “Color Revolutions” signifies the adoption of a revolutionary color (and sometimes a symbol) to represent their national identity, values, and goals. Indivisible leaders hope their chosen color will become ubiquitous among activists, especially as they move into the organized resistance phase, where activists will be arrested for nonviolent tactics such as occupations and sit-ins. This color is intended to galvanize national unity against the Trump administration heading into the 2028 general election.
MY OBSERVATION - This developing “color revolution” organization reminds me of various guerrilla operations. One example is the IRA, which had a political element and a lethal element. Indivisible et al are forming the visible, political element in an effort to increase support in its protests against Trump and serve as a recruiting pool for the lethal element.
What level of success will Indivisible et al have with this color campaign? To date, their protests have been heavily supported by astroturf efforts and the majority of the participants being older white people. Ongoing leftist violence is producing a pushback to Indivisible and swinging public opinion in Trump’s favor. Spontaneity of participation is very lacking.
FWIW, the leading candidates for color are yellow and black.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
A KC-135 and an E-3, alongside an unknown number of fighter jets, were scrambled overnight due to unknown aircraft(s), likely Russian, operating in or near the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ).
OBSERVATION - This harkens back to cold war days. However, the deployment of these two planes suggests a larger response than normal.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The WH has passed orders down to the various department to plan for mass firings of individuals should the democrats force a govt shutdown. This condition clearly hands reductions of govt workers into Trumps hand without a lot of potential for lawsuits. The critical emergency of a shutdown more than suffices.
***
Former FBI Director James Comey is expected to be indicted in the Eastern District of Virginia in the coming days, MSNBC reported Wednesday, citing three sources.
“The full extent of the charges being prepared against Comey is unclear, but the sources believe that at least one element of the indictment—if it goes forward—will accuse him of lying to Congress during his testimony on September 30, 2020 about whether he authorized a leak of information,” an MSNBC reporter wrote on X.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/james-comey-fbi-indicted/2025/09/24/id/1227706/
OBSERVATION - Notably cautious about an indictment/arrest since the sourcing is coming thru MSM. One can only hope this is the first of many.
TRUMP Watch –
UN probe finds Trump escalator halt was accident, not plot against president
OBSERVATION - Other experts say BS, that the alleged system to stop an escalator doesn’t work in that fashion.
As I said yesterday, the act may on the surface seem mild, but it posed a physical threat to the President in that is could have provided an opportunity for an assassination attempt due to the confusion and freezing the President’s movements.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
OVERALL OBSERVATIONS - Russia continues to be more aggressive in both their rhetoric as well as direct actions against NATO and the US. They have caused a lot of turmoil in the west over its incursions and the response from the west has been weak - encouraging even more actions by Russia.
But Russia may be waking up to the growing deadline in 2026 when much of their monetary and military reserves are consumed, making it very difficult to sustain operations at their current level and intensity. This could move putin to become more risk taking on the ground in an effort to gain leverage towards an essential surrender of Ukraine.
Economic Impact –
Gazprom’s Astrakhan oil refinery has been forced to suspend operations due to a Ukrainian drone attack earlier this week, taking out nearly 3 million gallons per day of gas and diesel production.
Per a source at the plant “A shutdown until November is the best-case scenario.”
Around 360 gas stations in Russia have shut down due to fuel shortages, according to Russian media. The crisis is most severe in the south, with a 14% drop in stations, while in occupied Crimea and Sevastopol nearly half have closed.
***
Russia’s finance ministry has proposed raising VAT from 20% to 22% in 2026 to fund the war and cover a growing deficit. The hike would bring in around $14.3 billion, while defence spending remains at record levels.
OBSERVATION - For those unfamiliar with a VAT, it is like a sales tax on steroids. Every component of a product is taxed along every step of production. In Germany, that amounted to nearly 15-20% of the cost in the late 80s early 90s IIRC.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia launched 176 attack drones overnight, including Shaheds and Gerans, from multiple directions. Ukrainian air defense, aviation, EW units and mobile groups shot down or suppressed 150 of them across the country. 13 drones hit 8 locations, with debris falling in one more.
Russian losses per 25/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+940 men
+2 AFVs
+38 artillery
+5 MLRS
+4 AD systems
+1 aircraft
The Russian Federation attacked the energy infrastructure of Vinnytsia region
Russian monitoring channels reported multiple UAV threats: alerts in Yevpatoria, Feodosiya, Kirovske, Taganrog, Azov, Donetsk area, Horlivka, and along the Kurakhove–Volnovakha–Taganrog axis. Several drone groups are detected heading toward occupied Crimea and Donbas.
Ukraine drones struck a chemical plant in Belorechensk district, Krasnodar region. A fire broke out and staff had to be evacuated, according to local reports.
Ukrainian naval drones struck oil terminals in Tuapse and Novorossiysk, paralyzing operations at Transneft’s facility and the CPC terminal used to load tankers, including Russia’s shadow fleet, RBC-Ukraine reports.
A pier at Tuapse port was hit. Russian return fire caused damage to civilian homes and cars, sparking panic in Novorossiysk, Tuapse and even Sochi, where beaches were evacuated.
Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber while it was conducting a bombing run on the city of Zaporizhia early this morning.
Analysis and Future Operations —
Reported Russian losses remain moderately high. Various OSINT analyst are reporting that Russian and Ukraine both have made gains in various portions of the front.
I am also seeing reports that Ukraine is planning its own offensive in the near future. Hopefully, it will be better planned than the one in 2023 that served to only have much of their new equipment decimated by Russian fire. Word is that Ukraine is asking for a lot of intel from the US in support of such an operation. Ukrainian military leadership has stepped up its game in recent months, evidenced by increasingly successful small scale counter attacks, and the more strategic efforts to hurt Russian oil production.
Potentially related are Trump’s most recent comments saying that Ukraine could ‘win’ back territory. Is this a reference to the suspected offensive?
Moldova/Transnistria -
Russia began to significantly surge its “Matryoshka” (nesting doll) and “Overload” social media disinformation campaigns targeting Moldova likely signaling the start of Russia’s multipronged effort to influence the September 28 parliamentary elections.
NewsGuard, a service that evaluates and rates the credibility of information sources, reported in July 2025 that the Matryoshka campaign spread 39 false claims targeting Moldova, including many claims about Sandu’s and PAS’s alleged corruption, between mid-April and mid-July 2025 after not targeting Moldova at all previously.
Poland –
Poland is moving forward without waiting for NATO or EU approval to respond to Russia drone/missile threats. The government wants to restore rapid-response powers taken away in 2022, adopting a “shoot first, ask later” principle to deal with cross-border threats.
Europe / NATO General –
Denmark says drones flown over its airports appear to be the work of a “professional actor” but there was no evidence of Russian involvement, after such activity disrupted the its airspace for the second time in a week.
Aalborg airport was forced to shut down for several hours on Wednesday evening after green lights were spotted overhead, while Billund airport also briefly closed. Three smaller airports also reported drone activity.
Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen told a news conference that the “hybrid attack” was part of a “systematic operation”, but said the devices had been launched locally.
A hybrid attack uses a mix of military and non-military tactics and is designed to interfere with a nation’s infrastructure or institutions.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7401vk4lgzo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss
OBSERVATION - These drone incursions appear to be very similar to those that affected a number of cities in Eastern US a few months ago.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.
Key overnight developments -
- IDF ground forces continue to press into Gaza City
- Globalists at the UN continue to demand a ceasefire - absent hostage returns.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed early Thursday morning for a visit to the United States. Netanyahu will speak at the UN assembly on Friday morning.
Before takeoff, Netanyahu said, “At the UN General Assembly, I will speak our truth. I will condemn those leaders who, instead of denouncing the murderers, rapists, and child burners, want to give them a state in the heart of the Land of Israel. That will not happen.”
Netanyahu: The war goals I agree on with Trump are to return all hostages, defeat Hamas, and expand the circle of peace.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Locals report continued heavy air and artillery strikes all over Gaza City.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
After a period of relative inaction, a Houthi drone hit the Red Sea city of Eilat. 2 civilians were seriously injured and 17 lightly injured.
A ballistic missile was later aunched from Yemen but failed and fell on its way to Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Macron: We must demand an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as clear humanitarian measures, and end this war once and for all.
Spain to send navy ship to protect Gaza aid flotilla after reported drone attacks off Greece; Italy dispatched vessel earlier
NOTE - So called drone attack was participants misfiring a flare gun.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The operation to seize Gaza City will continue in the face of European opposition. Netanyahu has full support from Trump, and that is what matters.
Trump’s demand of all hostages being released at once pretty much killed Hamas’ latest “offer”.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Satellite images published and analyzed by the Associated Press show that the Islamic Republic has begun rebuilding missile-production sites that were damaged during the 12-day war in June by Israel, but a key component still appears to be missing — large mixers/agitators needed to produce solid propellant for those weapons.
OBSERVATION - Israel took out the solid fuel mixers in their first air strike following Iran’s first missile attack. These are very expensive and hard to obtain.
Some assess that the accelerated work is an effort to get it done before ‘snap back’ sanctions return.
Such restoration of facilities may not be enough for another round of Israeli airstrikes unless Iran is able to get a solid fuel mixer to put fuel into any rockets being built.
Syria -
NOTE - Threat Level is cleared due to stability in S Syria.
Netanyahu’s office: Our interests in the negotiations include demilitarizing southwestern Syria and preserving the safety of the Druze.
Turkey –
With recognition of the fake state of Palestine, Turkey’s dictator Erdogan is now pushing for recognition of another fake entity — the so-called “Northern Cyprus.” In reality, it’s occupied Cypriot land where Ankara resettled hundreds of thousands of Turks to alter its demography.
OBSERVATIONS - Cyprus is the flash point of Turkish / Greek hostilities of the past several decades plus. Many have questioned why NATO retains Turkey as a member state in the face of a standing war against Greece.
Misc of Note –
Some additional meanderings of my thoughts out loud.
A lot of uncertainty in my preparations planning in the face of rising leftist violence and assassination operations. Here in the Redoubt we don’t have that many ICE facilities, however, ones that we do have recently were facing protests by leftists likely affiliated with Antifa coming out of Washington State.
But is isn’t just ICE, the leftists have been calling out threats to Christians as well, putting Churches and schools in their scopes. There are plenty of loose nut jobs out there that have been radicalized to act on their own - we’ve seen a lot of that. It is the move to larger, more organized attacks that concern me and what impact it will have on me and my family.
As always, the biggest threats now are in blue, urban/metro areas. However threats have considerably risen to those of us in more rural areas as well. Fully defining that threat is difficult and I don’t have an answer at the moment to drive my preparations.
Best current advice is to carry and keep your head on a swivel.
Heads up , no post for Saturday
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated Sep 16, 2025
UPCOMING -
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025
***
With the weekend fast approaching, numerous various protests have been announced, but the outlook for associated violence remains low. Most of the Kirk memorial services have been completed, so leftist focus there has been reduced. Unpredictable, lone wolf violence is possible, at this stage still targeting ICE and other related federal agents and offices.
As always, unforeseen events can happen and quickly change the situation.
***
A man has been arrested for posting social media threats just hours before a vigil for Charlie Kirk at the University of Texas at San Antonio.
Xaelyn Dunbar, 19, has been charged with a terroristic threat for threatening on Facebook to use his truck to attack a vigil of 1,000 people.
His comment: “This is a disgrace and I can tell you right now ima make sure this won’t be a good nor comforting vigil yall watch and see. Ima make this a movie … me and my truck.”
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1971214312812212395
OBSERVATION - Once again, leftists feel empowered to commit even more violence
***
FBI Director Kash Patel shared on Thursday that the gunman who opened fire on an Immigration and Customs Enforcement facility in Dallas yesterday had searched online for apps that tracked the locations of ICE agents.
Such apps are a “casting call to invite bad actors to invite law enforcement officers,” Marcos Charles, ICE’s Acting Executive Associate Director of Enforcement and Removal Operations, said at a Thursday press conference. “It’s no different than giving the hit man the location of their intended target, and this is exactly what we saw happen in Dallas yesterday.”
“The media has been amplifying these apps even as we warned them it would only lead to more attacks on law enforcement.”
“We truly wish we didn’t have to say we told you so, but here we are.”
OBSERVATION - More collusion between the MSM and violent leftists.
AND MORE -
FBI Special Agent Rothrock: Clearest motivation of attack are in his own words he wanted to “cause terror” to ICE employees across country.
The Dallas attack was “months in the making.”
According to the FBI director, the man who carried out the deadly shooting on the Dallas ICE facility may have been inspired to take direct action from Charlie Kirk’s assassination.
He looked into the leftist ICE tracking apps. He also left behind a note in case “anti-ICE” wasn’t clear enough: “Hopefully this will give ICE agents real terror, to think, ‘is there a sniper with AP [armor piercing] rounds on that roof?”
The deadly shooting, which appeared to target ICE agents but hit illegal migrants instead, occurred in a wider context of Antifa, leftists and Democrats urging violent direct action and resistance to ICE. Antifa have been calling for DHS agents to be killed, and for the facilities to be burned down. In 2019, an Antifa gunman died trying to shoot up and blow up an ICE facility in Washington. He was celebrated by Antifa and some liberal media. In July 2025, North Texas Antifa shot up an ICE facility in Alvarado, Texas.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1971290708549173701?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
**
I found the following commentary interesting for refocusing on just what shape this change in the CW2 direction is taking.
‘this is low intensity conflict.”
“it’s hard to stop once it gets going because every successive politically motivated murder justifies another.”
“it will be violent, often fatal, but your life will go on. and it’s not a “civil war” in the classic sense.”
https://x.com/grayzoneintel/status/1971266787871514684?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Murderous leftist attacks give birth to more murderous leftist attacks - whether they are successful or not. The target group becomes very diverse. This model is significantly different from the Red vs Blue model many have been looking at. This is closer to a classic communist/marxist insurrection model.
Moving forward, depending on successes, I would expect these actions to become more and more planned by a larger, covert element and not so much the general lone wolf attacks we’ve seen. Much more complicated and deadly.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
***
Cuts to Fiber Optic Cables have caused a state-wide 911 outage in Mississippi, and related outages also in Alabama and Louisiana.
No explanation as of yet as to HOW these Fiber Optic Cables got “cut.”
OBSERVATION - Multiple cuts in multiple locations. Timing the same. Not a coincidence.
***
Three men have been arrested in Texas after they reportedly shot a youth baseball coach who was saying a prayer on the field with his team. The coach is currently recovering
Suspects names:
-Mahmood Abdelsalam Rababah
-Ahmad Mawed
-Mustafa Mohammad Matalgah
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1971010325769322983?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Moslems targeting Christian prayer. Was initially reported as unattributed stray shots. Now a deliberate targeting. I guess the liberal left open season on opposition has spread to jihadies
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said it will be the policy of the Trump administration to prevent the closure of coal power plants, which would drive up energy prices and hinder reindustrialization. People familiar with the matter said the Department of Energy (DOE) plans to continue using emergency orders under the Federal Power Act to keep fossil fuel power plants open.
OBSERVATION - The loss of coal plants has reached a breaking point in many parts of the country, with ‘renewables’ failing to bridge the gap, due to both reliability and excessive cost. Cheap and abundant electricity will not only lower our costs, but costs for industry and especially these energy hungry data centers that are coming on line with new AI operations.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has ordered a rare, urgent gathering of nearly all Generals and Admirals in the U.S. Army, Air Force, Marine Corps, Navy, and Space Force next week at Marine Corps Base Quantico in Virginia, for a currently unknown reason, according to The Washington Post.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The FBI admits it had 275 plainclothes agents embedded in the massive Jan. 6 crowds.
Once again, the “conspiracy theorists” were right. For over 4 years, Garland, Wray, and Horowitz denied or dodged questions about informants being involved in the riot.
OBSERVATION - This is also a component of CW2, where the govt is mobilized to attack and suppress the opposition.
***
More on the potential shutdown
(FO) The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) sent a memo yesterday instructing federal agencies to prepare plans for mass firings, if a government shutdown is triggered next week.
The reduction in force would hit federal agencies and programs that are not funded through HR 1, The Big Beautiful Bill, and are not consistent with President Donald Trump’s priorities, according to the memo.
OBSERVATION - Some have considered that this shut down would benefit Trump by clearing the way to legally clean out federal agencies. A very BIG hammer in Trump’s favor.
North/South Korea –
South Korea’s navy fired dozens of warning shots Friday morning after a North Korean merchant ship crossed the Northern Limit Line near Baengnyeong Island.
The ship initially tried to warn away the NK vessel via radio, but it ignored the call but quickly turned back after the shots.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
NATO and the EU, through Ukraine, have declared war on Russia and are directly participating in it, - Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated
RUMINT-
At a meeting in Moscow, a Russian diplomat told the British, French and German envoys that the Russian air incursions into Estonia were a deliberate response to Ukrainian attacks on Crimea, officials familiar with the exchange tells Bloomberg
Economic Impact –
Growing fuel shortages, particularly in occupied Ukrainian regions.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Cooling trend with temps dropping to the 40-50 degree range by the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukraine’s Air Force reports Russia launched 154 attack drones overnight, including around 80 Shaheds, from Bryansk, Oryol and Millerovo. Air defense, EW units and mobile groups downed or suppressed 128 drones across the country. 26 hit targets at 9 locations.
Russian losses per 26/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+940 men
+2 tanks
+14 artillery
Heavy Ukrainian UAV activity overnight reported across multiple occupied regions: Starobilsk, Uspenka, Crimea, as well as Volgograd and Saratov oblasts. Local channels warn of strike drones in the air, while air restrictions at Tambov airport are in place.
Ukrainian drones attacked 3 natural gas distribution stations at the occupied parts of Luhansk region of Ukraine
A drone strike hit the Afipsky oil refinery in Russia’s Krasnodar region, sparking a large fire. Local sources report intense flames at the site.
OSINT analysis suggests the hit was on the core of its heavy fuel processing: a combined vacuum distillation, visbreaking and sulfur recovery complex. This unit turns heavy residues into valuable feedstock for diesel and gasoline production. If disabled, the plant loses much of its ability to refine heavy oil into quality fuels.
***
ISW. Russian forces are reportedly rearranging forces to prepare for offensive operations across several sectors of the frontline but lack the forces and means required to sustain these operations simultaneously.
The Russian offensive in Kupyansk is reportedly vulnerable due to the lack of sufficient forces to sustain simultaneous offensive operations against Kupyansk and several other areas along the frontline.
https://x.com/thestudyofwar/status/1971402393960186085?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Analysis and Future Operations —
Increasing probability of a large Russian drone/missile strike in the next couple days. Ukraine continues to hammer the Russian oil sector, taking major refineries out of operation for multipole months at minimum. This has impacts on the Russian planning for their Fall Offensive. Hard to move and supply forces if you don’t have fuel. The Russian logistics tail continues to be hard pressed to support the war to begin with. Probably a big factor in ISW’s assessment above.
Moldova/Transnistria -
ISW. The Kremlin is setting conditions to generate possibly violent protests to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power following the September 28 Moldovan parliamentary elections.
Recent polling within Moldova suggests that the pro-Western Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), which currently holds the majority in parliament, may lose its majority in the upcoming elections and that no other parties or blocs will gain a clear majority. Polls indicate that much will hinge on the significant number of still undecided voters and the diaspora vote (whose opinions the polls do not track) such that the probable election results remain unclear at this time.
Russian intelligence officers have reportedly been training Moldovans on how to stage provocations and turn protests violent. The Kremlin may intend to generate violent protests to try to remove Moldovan President Maia Sandu from power.
https://x.com/criticalthreats/status/1971354446186647785?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Moldova is a critical ground bridge between Romania and the rest of NATO. Remembering back to the start of the Ukraine war, one of the major goals for Russia was to establish a ground ‘bridge’ all the way to Moldova. Forcefully placing a pro-Russia, anti-EU govt in power would put NATO in a pinch should things come to blows in the future.
Europe / NATO General –
European diplomats privately warned Russia in Moscow that NATO is prepared to shoot down Russian aircraft if airspace violations continue, -Bloomberg
***
After a drone attack disrupted Copenhagen Airport, grounding flights, Ekstra Bladet reported the Russian Baltic Fleet’s ship, Aleksandr Shabalin, was spotted 12 km off Langeland Island, Denmark, with its transponder off.
The ship’s presence aligned with increased drone activity at Danish airports and military sites.
Jacob Kaarsbo, ex-Danish military intelligence analyst, suggested it may have served as a diversion, observation post, or support for drone-launching vessels.
Danish authorities are investigating the ship’s involvement.
https://x.com/osint613/status/1971499590341005744?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
OBSERVATION - Associated discussions noted the probability of drones being launched and supported by a naval vessel of some sort. This would also be a sign of Russian actions in these current drone activity.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu addresses the UN
- Airstrike against Houthis as they continue to fire missiles at Israel.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IDF: Israeli Air Force strikes over 140 targets in Gaza Strip as ground offensive continues in Gaza City.
Hamas rejects Palestinian Authority President Abbas UN speech, says resistance is a “national and moral duty” and vows weapons will not be surrendered while Israel occupies Palestinian land. Abbas had condemned Hamas’s Oct 7 attack and said the group would have no role in future governance
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Defense Minister Katz: We have just delivered a powerful blow against numerous terrorist targets belonging to the Houthi terrorist organization in Sana’a. The Israeli army struck several military camps, including one belonging to the Houthi General Staff, eliminating dozens of Houthi militants and destroying stockpiles of UAVs and weaponry
A missile launched by the Houthis towards Israel was intercepted. Houthi’s claim the warhead was one of their cluster bomb versions.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
President Trump: “Here’s the good news: Macron’s recognition of a Palestinian state doesn’t matter. It’s not gonna change anything.”
***
(FO) Italy’s Defense Minister ordered a frigate to escort the Global Sumud Flotilla and protect them from drone attacks. The Flotilla consists of numerous ships and intends to run Israel’s blockade of Gaza. Spain’s Prime Minister announced a Spanish escort as well. The Flotilla expects to arrive in Gaza around 30 September.
OBSERVATION - I would find it unlikely that these escorts would fire on Israeli vessels or aircraft. It would be like shooting ducks in a barrel for Israel. More like symbolism over substance.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Gaza campaign to continue unabated. Hamas is losing support as its european allies have no teeth to force Israel to stop.
Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025
Russia and Iran have signed an agreement for Russia to build 4 nuclear power plants.
OBSERVATION - Both are broke with sagging economies. Who’s gonna pay the bills?
Lebanon -
The Israeli army confirms carrying out an airstrike in Lebanon’s eastern Beqaa Valley a short while ago, saying it targeted a Hezbollah precision missile manufacturing site. The Hezbollah facility has been targeted by the Israeli army several times before
***
Hezbollah is reportedly facing internal divisions among its members over its response to the Lebanese state’s plan to disarm Hezbollah. Hezbollah is also reportedly facing challenges in appointing new leaders following the Israeli decapitation campaign against Hezbollah in late 2024.
OBSERVATION - Borderline RUMINT but very likely. Rumors of dissension have been floating around for many months now.
Venezuela - Threat Level - ADVISORY Sept 4, 2025
The M/V Ocean Trader, a highly customized roll-on/roll-off cargo ship converted into a special operations command center and “mothership” operated by U.S. Military Sealift Command (MSC), was spotted today in the Southern Caribbean Sea off the coast of the U.S. Virgin Islands, roughly 400 miles from Venezuela.
It serves as a clandestine forward operating base for the U.S. Special Operations Force, capable of launching and recovering small craft, serving as a helicopter hangar, and providing logistical and personnel support for up to 200 soldiers. It was adapted from a commercial vessel to blend in with maritime traffic and operate discreetly.
OBSERVATION - Obviously its cover has been blown. Its presence opposite Venezuela demands watching should a more aggressive action taking against Venezuelan drug cartels be used.