Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

Things broke loose in a big way globally yesterday.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
“Operation Midway Blitz” in Chicago, I (see below) likely to trigger violent protests.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Ripples still expanding due to the revelation that biden officials falsely inflated job growth by nearly 1 million during his last term in office. This revision fully justifies Trump’s removal of the BLS chief for cooking the books.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Iwo Jima marines conducting amphibious training at Puerto Rico.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Thune looking to change rules to get Trump appointees approved, with first ‘batch’ anticipated to be voted on later this week or early next.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump wasn’t too happy with the Israeli strike in Qatar, but also said Hamas needs to be eliminated, so it looks like Israel got a mulligan for this one.

Illegal Immigration –

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced that ICE will launch “Operation Midway Blitz” in Chicago, IL. DHS said the operation will target criminal aliens in Chicago and the state of Illinois. According to the mayor of Chicago suburb Broadview, ICE will use a detention facility in the village as the primary processing center for the operation, which will last 45 days.

OBSERVATION - Expect attempts at violent pushback by leftists.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia may have deliberately tested and one could say probed NATO responses with the Polish drone incursion last night. See Poland below for more.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on the overnight attack in which Polish airspace was also violated.

Shot down:
386/415 Shahed and other type drones
27/42 Kh-101/Kalibr/Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles
0/1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile

16 missiles and 21 strike UAVs hit 17 locations. According to the Air Force, at least eight Russian UAVs crossed the state border of Ukraine towards Poland.
See Poland for discussion of this incursion.

Main targets of the attack included Lutsk, Lviv, Zhytomyr and Ivanov-Frankivsk.

Of those numbers, around 60 Shahed drones and over 10 missiles were targeted at Lviv overnight, according to local authorities.

Russian losses per 10/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+990 men
+3 tanks
+1 AFV
+29 artillery
+1 MLRS

Analysis and Future Operations —

Potential for another large drone/missile attack tonight

Ground fighting continues. I’m reviewing reported changes to Russian attack tactics the appear to be blunting some of Ukraine’s drone successes.

Moldova/Transnistria -

Unconfirmed reports that Russian drones and cruise missiles violated Moldovan airspace overnight.

Belarus -

Russian drone incursion into Poland has stepped up tensions between the two countries. Drone attack coincides with an ongoing Belarus / Russia military exercise.

Poland –

WHAT I’VE BEEN ABLE TO WORK THRU -

Overnight, at least 7 Shahed type drones and one cruise missile entered Poland. Polish air force sources state that they shot down at least 3. Final numbers still fuzzy and could rise.

“The operation lasted all night. 19 violations of Polish airspace were recorded and precisely tracked, but these are not final data” - Prime Minister Tusk in the Sejm

Poland has invoked NATO Article 4, which would officially bring an urgent issue to the North Atlantic Council. Article 4 was last invoked by the central and eastern European NATO member states after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in Feb 2022.

Article 4 of the NATO Treaty states that member countries will consult together whenever any one of them believes its territorial integrity, political independence, or security is threatened. It’s a mechanism for discussion and coordination, but doesn’t automatically trigger military action (unlike Article 5). It was last used in 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Fighter jets from Germany, Netherlands, Britain, the United States and Poland along with early warning aircraft and aerial refueling tankers responded to defend polish airspace from Russian drone attack.

All airspace over Poland was closed off to civilian aircraft during the episode. It was later reopened when it was confirmed that no more drones/missiles were entering the country. Additionally, Polish authorities urged residents of the Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, and Lubelskie voivodeships to shelter in place due to tonight’s Russian drone attack. 8.7 million people to shelter in place, which constitutes nearly a quarter of Poland’s population.

***
Highest air alert status declared in Slovakia and Hungary

***
Poland completely closed its border with Belarus.

In Poland, an accelerated mobilization of Territorial Defense reservists was announced following a Russian drone attack — the country’s Territorial Defense Forces. In four provinces, they must report for duty within 6 hours; in six additional provinces — within 12 hours.

***
Speaking in reference to the incursions, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued an unusual statement:

“From today, no one is immune from our actions, everyone who supports Ukraine and Zelensky will pay the price.”

So far, drone fragments have been found in Krzywowierzba-Kolonia, Wyhalew, and Wohyń. Approximately 12,000 police officers are involved in the search for drone debris. If such objects are found, officers secure the scene and notify Polish Army soldiers.

“The decision to activate Article 4 was preceded by my consultations with President @NawrockiKn. It is our joint decision - I emphasize this good cooperation, because we all know the political conditions in which we have to work,” - Prime Minister Tusk in the Sejm

Tusk: There is no reason to claim today that we are in a state of war. But there is no doubt that this provocation exceeds the limits of what has been previously accepted.

OBSERVATION -
A NATO source tells Reuters that Russia’s drone intrusion into Poland appears deliberate; Poland’s Patriot radar detected them but didn’t engage.
A mistake by Russia can be pretty much ruled out at this point. This appears to be a significant probing attack of NATO at minimum.

Very serious incursion. Previously “spill over” has consisted in singular drones crossing over into Poland. The numbers, and apparently in waves, of drones and even a cruise missile places this outside the normal bounds of simple ‘spill over’. This was enhanced by the slightly cryptic message from the Russian military that “no one is immune from our actions”

The key to this whole matter is ‘deliberateness’. Russia still claims an ‘oopsie’ on stray drones, but in these numbers it stretches credibility.

All eyes next on responses, which there are several potential available.

- Jump in sanctions / tariffs to damage Russian economy Very likely and may tweak Trump to expand/strengthen those by the US.

- Creation of a Russia “no fly” envelope across western Ukraine, to intercept drones / missiles that could potentially reach Poland before it reaches the territory

- Accelerated approval of the use of western weapons to strike deep into Russia.

- Direct military response towards Russia and Russian assets, principally in Belarus where some of the drones apparently were launched from.

At this stage, war doesn’t appear to be imminent, but the needle has moved dangerous close to such action. There are still non-kinetic measures available (above) for them to use.

Is this the opening gambit of a Russia campaign to strike Ukraine support from bases in Poland? One has to wait and see.

Europe / NATO General –

Statement by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, from 10 Downing Street: - condemns the “deeply disturbing” “blatant and unprecedented violation of Polish and NATO airspace”; - “extremely irresponsible” step by Russia; - offered support to Poland

***
French president Macron just appointed Sébastien Lecornu, the minister or Defence in the previous government, as the (lucky) seventh prime minister of France under Macron’s presidency.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Israel targeted at least 17 leaders of Hamas meeting in Qatar with bombs

- Bombing of Gaza City continues at an intense level.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israeli army Spokesperson in Arabic, Colonel Avichai Edrei, issued an urgent warning to anyone who has not yet evacuated the Gaza Port area and the southern Rimal neighborhood.

More building in Gaza City fall into rubble as IDF troops enter parts of Gaza City that have not seen Israeli forces since 2005.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Ballistic missile from Yemen towards Jerusalem area. Intercepted The missile reportedly was equipped with a cluster warhead.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it targeted “senior officials” of Hamas shortly after explosions shook the Qatari capital Doha, in what would mark the first known Israeli air strike on Qatari soil.
In a statement released on September 9, 2025, the IDF and Israel’s domestic intelligence agency Shin Bet said the operation was carried out “using the Air Force” with precision munitions.

Joint statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz:

“Yesterday, following the deadly attacks in Jerusalem and Gaza, Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed all security agencies to prepare for the possibility of eliminating Hamas leaders. The Defense Minister fully supported this proposal.”

“This afternoon, in light of an operational opportunity, and after consultation with all heads of the security system and with full backing, the Prime Minister and Defense Minister decided to carry out the directive given last night to the IDF and Shin Bet, and they did so precisely and optimally.”

“The Prime Minister and Defense Minister believed the action was completely justified given that this Hamas leadership initiated and organized the October 7 massacre, and has not ceased to launch murderous actions against the State of Israel and its citizens since, including taking responsibility for the murder of our citizens in yesterday’s attack in Jerusalem.”

“Reportedly 10 fighter jets flew 1800 kilometers to drop 12 precision guided bombs”

Netanyahu on the attack in Qatar: The mission was carried out in the best possible way. The days when terror leaders enjoyed immunity anywhere are over.

***
The Wall Street Journal reports that the United States gave Qatar an early warning that an Israeli strike against senior Hamas officials was about to take place. According to the report, the warning was given before the operation against the organization’s leadership was carried out.
General condemnation of the Israeli air strike targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar.

Qatar suspends its mediation role on Gaza after the Israeli attack.
MY NOTE - Qatar has been a facilitator for Hamas by hosting their leadership without pushback.

Qatari sources told Al-Araby Al-Jadeed that the Israeli strike on Hamas leaders in Doha yesterday occurred minutes after the Hamas negotiating delegation concluded its meeting. Meanwhile, Qatar plans to hold an Arab-Islamic summit later this week in Doha over the Israeli strike.

***
Unilaterally bombing inside Qatar does not advance Israel or America’s goals — The president views Qatar as a strong ally and friend of the United States, and feels very badly about the location of this attack,” said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

“However, eliminating Hamas, who have profited off the misery of those living in Gaza, IS A WORTHY GOAL.”

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel apparently missed by just a few minutes, as meeting of the key political leadership of Hamas in Doha. Only some minor players killed. Of course Qatar is miffed (but was silent when Iran fired missiles at a US base in its territory). Qatar is a facilitator of terror, providing shelter for terror leadership as well as a conduit for money to support those operations.

This appears to be a one and done operation. Israel will have to work riskier, smaller level strikes on Hamas leadership now, similar to how they took out the Hezbollah leader in Iran last year.

On the ground, Gaza City continues to be turned into rubble. It is a given that Hamas has connected these buildings to their underground network as well as using them for intelligence collection and firing positions. Many pre-loaded with IEDs should Israel send troops into undestroyed structures.

The speed of advance into Gaza City is generally not announced, nor much of the tactical details. It is known Israeli forces have had casualties, but a tight hold has been placed on news dissemination by the IDF. The only thing we do know is that at the start of the current offensive, Israel claimed control of 40% of the city - meaning that the remaining 60% is getting hammered pretty hard.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

A new cooperation framework between Iran and the IAEA was established today in Cairo. Details yet to be released.

Today hurts doubly. 24th remembrance of the terror attack on our country. Second is waking up and they haven’t captured the gunman who murdered Charlie Kirk.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***

The road to CW2 became more kinetic yesterday. Charlie Kirk was assassinated, he was hit in the left side of the neck - square on the jugular - by an individual firing from the rooftop of a campus building about 200 yards away. He died shortly thereafter. Law enforcement looking for the shooter, who appears on many videos that have been posted on social media. Those videos at the moment of the shooting show an individual in a prone position. After the shot the individual is seen running across the roof.

General opinion of many - this was a planned, professional hit by someone who knew what they were doing. That strongly suggests barring any significant breakthrough, this one will get away.

The gruesomeness of the murder has been amplified by the glee coming from the left not only the soy boys, but even in congress itself where democrats boo’d and shouted NO at move for a moment of silence and prayer.
Matthew Dowd has been FIRED from MSNBC after blaming the assassination of Charlie Kirk on Charlie himself.

@camhigby interviewed two leftist hecklers who tried to disrupt a vigil for Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated speaking on a university campus. One protester says he would have killed Kirk himself because he was a “Nazi.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1966043553139740901?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

Kirk’s private security detail appeared to have been more concerned about a close in attack - by knife or handgun - and not a sniper. The head shot designed to bypass any body armor he might have been wearing.

Charlie Kirk’s murder didn’t happen in a vacuum. Riots, demonization & tacit approval of violence from Democrats laid foundation for the culture of assassination we’re now in.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1965957592561373384?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

The shooting also comes less than five months after the Southern Poverty Law Center put Turning Point USA on a “hate map” with chapters of the Ku Klux Klan. In a statement today, the group said, “We condemn the shooting of Charlie Kirk and all violence in any form.”
This does not mark the first time conservatives have been targeted for violence after the SPLC criticized them.

Leftist calls for violence and assassinations have been growing over the past couple years. The ice broke with leftists glorifying Luigi Mangione murder of a health care CEO.

Other threats inflamed by democrat congressional members and media nearly saw the assassination of a Supreme Court Justice.

Three attempts have been made on Trump, one nearly succeeding.

Liberals are now openly hoping that President Trump, J.D. Vance, and Elon Musk and others will be the next targets of assassination.
And they want more targets to be killed because they feel emboldened.

The Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) survey of 70,000 college students found that 34% believe violence can be justified to stop campus speakers.

The murder has raised fury on the right which is already tender following the slaying of Iryna Zarutska.

Is this the final straw that will break loose a level of kinetic CW2 action across the board? This will encourage a whole new field of conservative apologists to fill his shoes - becoming an even greater ideological threat the leftist swamps of colleges and universities.

Conservatives on social media - primarily X - are researching these leftists who have proudly celebrated Kirk’s assassination. Several have already been identified and their employers have terminated their employment.

It is darn close to flipping the on switch for many on the right to do the same to the left. The anger is thick enough to cut like a knife. I’m not sure what that would look like at this stage.

One thing I am sure, if Trump or his circle get hit, the genie will be out of the bottle and you can bet leftist leaders will face reprisals.

As noted above, leftists are now feeling emboldened and I fully expect to see more assassination attempts in the future. A mix of amateurish actions with more professional ones like the Kirk hit.

***
The official black lives matter account has posted a video stating that black people “have a right to violence” amid mass outrage over the slaying of Iryna Zarutska at the hands of a black male in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

24 years ago, islamic terrorists hijacked 4 airliners. Two were flown into the WTC, one into the Pentagon and another crashed into the ground in Pennsylvania. It was an event etched into the minds of people of the time. Sadly, today’s 24 year olds don’t have that memory and in the case of NYC, they are actively promoting a moslem socialist to be mayor. Bush squandered the unity of the nation for an endless war in Iraq and even Afghanistan - letting the State Dept under Rice to call the shots. A decision that cost many lives and seriously wounded military.

I for one will never forget.

Those reading Threat Matrix should know that this series of posts were started in the days after 9/11 to disseminate and evaluate the broad number of suspected threats to the US at home and around the world. I have kept the thread going for a number of years now because the threat to the US has not decreased, but has in fact been increasing. IMHO we have to be alert to these threats and realize the potential impacts coming down the road.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The WSJ headlines the news about the Producer Price Index by noting that the index “unexpectedly” dropped in August. Economists expected the PPI to increase 0.3% month-on-month as a result of price pressures due to tariffs that have begun to bite. That might have signaled mild-to-moderate inflation ahead and complicated the picture for the Federal Reserve. Instead, the new PPI simplified it by going into negative territory:

A gauge of wholesale inflation showed prices unexpectedly edged 0.1% lower in August, after jumping a month earlier. Economists had expected a 0.3% monthly rise. An equivalent readout on consumer prices is due Thursday.
Fed officials look not only at headline numbers but also the underlying drivers. The PPI report provided good news on inflation fundamentals. The service sector, which drives some 80% of GDP, saw outright deflation, falling 0.2%. Even goods prices, which are much more heavily impacted by tariffs, rose just 0.1%.

The CPI reading, due Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET, will get more attention. As with PPI, the consensus outlook is for a 0.3% increase. About four-fifths of the CPI and PPI numbers feed into the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index. CPI is the final big data point before the Fed’s rate decision a week from now.

OBSERVATIONS - The term ‘deflationary’ is being tossed into the mix. Combined with the jobs report, the pressure will be building on the fed to drop rates.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Iwo Jima marines conducting amphibious training at Puerto Rico.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Lawmakers from both parties rejected a White House proposal to pass a stop-gap funding bill through January 2026 yesterday. Sen. Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) and key House Republicans rejected a proposal to extend Obamacare subsidies as part of a stop-gap funding bill.

OBSERVATION - 0bamacare has been a boat anchor to many families. It raised costs substantially and created a greater bureaucracy. 0bama designed it to eventually force the system to a universal health care system. However, the democrats are using it to derail Republican efforts to get funding for the remainder of the FY nailed down.

China -

(FO) China’s State Council approved a measure to impose “the new Huangyan Island National Nature Reserve.” Per the release this will require continuous law enforcement and “the implementation of various management measures Continuously improve the level of construction and management of national nature reserves.” Huangyan is the Chinese name for the Scarborough Shoal, a disputed territory between the Philippines and China.

OBSERVATION - China trying to ‘justify’ a military (they call it law enforcement) operation. Expect them to become more aggressive towards Philippine vessels in the region.

North/South Korea –

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Economic Impact –

Russia’s oil and fuel export revenues fell in August to a five-year low, Reuters reports. Income dropped by $920 million from July to $13.51 billion as crude and fuel exports declined and the discount on Urals widened to about $56 per barrel, well below the $60 price cap. Exports fell by 70,000 barrels per day to 7.3 million bpd.

OBSERVATION - Russia depends heavily on oil for income just to meet the regular bills. Add war costs to the mix and Russia is consuming its reserves at an ever increasing rate. This is another area of convergence towards 2026 suggesting Russia is going to hit the wall as far as pursuing the war at its present tempo.

Now add to this the growing impacts of Ukraine’s drone campaign on Russian oil infrastructure and it gets even bleaker.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight on September 11, Russia launched 66 attack drones, including Shaheds, Geran and others, from Kursk, Millerovo and Primorsko-Akhtarsk. Ukrainian air defense, EW units and mobile fire groups shot down or suppressed 62 of them across the north, south and east. Four drones hit three locations.

Russian losses per 11/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+890 men
+4 tanks
+2 AFVs
+22 artillery

Crimean front —

Russian milblogger Rybar reports that Ukraine has intensified strikes on western Crimea since August, focusing on radar stations within air defense systems rather than launchers. He claims Ukraine is also targeting comms infrastructure and logistics hubs to reduce Russian detection capabilities at sea and in the air. The goal, according to him, is to gradually weaken Crimea’s air defenses and open a corridor for larger attacks.

According to the well-informed channel Dosye Shpiona, Ukraine struck Russia’s Deep Space Communications Center (unit 81415) in Vitino, occupied Crimea, overnight on Sept 10. The target: the 40th Command and Measurement Complex. Two jet-powered drones reportedly hit the HQ and communications hub. Russia’s Pantsir-S1 system failed to intercept the drones.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Reduced drone activity following the recent burst that likely targeted Poland as well. Russia will be assessing Poland’s and NATO’s response to the intrusion and we may well see more ‘oopses’ flying into the country on the next big drone/missile assault in the next few days.

Action on the ground remains relatively static, with no real serious gains by Russia. Ukraine continues localized counterattacks, sealing off recent Russia pushes.

Watching the renewed efforts to blind Russia to further drone strikes in Crimea. This cold put the Kerch bridge back into play as a military objective.

Belarus -

Near Minsk, Belarus is building a secret military base likely intended for the “Oreshnik” missile system, according to satellite imagery. Since 2022, Belarus has upgraded multiple military sites and is now finishing two new bases near Ukraine’s border, just days ahead of the joint “Zapad-2025” drills.

Poland –

Updates
Tusk said that last night there were 19 cases of violations of Polish airspace.
Czosnówka, Cześniki, Krzywowierzba-Kolonia, Mniszków, Oleśno, Wielki Łan, Wohyń, Wyhalew, Wyryki, Zabłocie-Kolonia - in these towns, according to the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Administration, drone remains were found

At least 15 drones have been found in Poland.

Two Russian one-way attack drones were found crashed near the Polish capital of Warsaw.

***
Air traffic in the eastern part of Poland along the borders with Belarus and Ukraine is limited from September 10 to December 9, the Polish Air Navigation Services Agency (PANSA) announced in a statement.

***
Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said that the Russian chargé d’affaires in Poland, summoned to receive a protest note at the Polish Foreign Ministry, refused to acknowledge that the drones were Russian.

Russian Embassy to Newsweek: “The Polish side once again failed to present evidence of the Russian origin of the objects that entered Polish airspace, and groundlessly accused Russia of provocative actions.”

Europe / NATO General –

Latvia closes airspace near the border with Russia and Belarus

***
NATO sources are reporting that at around 10:00am on Wednesday morning, a group of objects consisting of at least two “unknown aircraft” were detected entering Lithuanian Airspace from the direction of Belarus. Aircraft were scrambled but the objects were not intercepted, with surveillance ongoing to determine if they possibly landed in Lithuania.

OBSERVATION - Russia playing games and probing for local responses

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Gaza City continues to be hammered.

- IAF hit Houthi targets

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Netanyahu calls out the world’s hypocrisy:
“You applauded America for killing Bin Laden but condemn Israel for killing Hamas leaders in Qatar.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

An updated estimate from Israel, about 200,000 out of 800,000 have so far evacuated from Gaza City to the south.
Hamas continues to try to stop the movement but they still are getting through.

IDF says that over 350 terror sites / targets have been hit since the renewal of Gideon’s Chariot operations.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The Israeli military says its air defenses intercepted a Houthi missile from Yemen.

***
Sanaa was bombed yesterday with 6 targets being hit. The attack focused on fuel warehouses, Houthi military camps, and the Houthi administration’s propaganda headquarters. The presidential and military general staff complex in Sana’a was also attacked.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***

Qatar says it is reviewing its role as a mediator and reconsidering Hamas’s presence in the country.

OBSERVATION - The pampered princes in Doha got a wake up call.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel contines to hamer Hamas’ Gaza City stronghold. Hamas hasn’t formally responded to Trump’s final offer, and is unlikely to do so any time soon. It totally strips away all their basic demands, and on those points there is no compromise.

Massive exodus out of Gaza City is permitting Israel to intensify operations. From what I’m seeing, Israel will rubble key neighborhoods, ground forces come in and secure it, locating tunnel outlets and other features. Then blowing the tunnels up, denying further use. Methodical but necessary to prevent Hamas from popping up behind the lines and striking softer Israeli forces.

With most of the Hamas military command decimated and the political leadership wetting themselves in Qatar, coordinated defense is suffering for lack of guidance except to die in place.

Hamas’ allies in Europe and middle east have lost the traction the whole starvation and genocide PR blitz intimately created. Israel’s flat out refusal to play that game and move forward with the aggressive assault on Gaza City has neutralized that for the moment. Hamas is running out of time.

Lebanon -

An Israeli drone strike on the outskirts of the town of Ain Baal in southern Lebanon.

The Israeli Air Force is currently striking deep inside Lebanon, in the Beqaa Valley.

OBSERVATION - Still noting that the Lebanese govt isn’t whining too much about the airstrikes as Israel is helping them to disarm Hezbollah.

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Israeli forces entered the town of Abdeen in the Yarmouk Basin area in the western Daraa countryside at dawn today and arrested two civilians. - Syrian news

Syrian Ministry of Defense: Clashes between the Syrian army and the SDF militias on the Deir Hafer axis, east of Aleppo.
SDF forces launched a violent bombing campaign from positions they control at Al-Jarrah Military Airport and the vicinity of Maskanah city.

OBSERVATION - S and NE Syria will continue to be points of contention. Druze in the south and predominately Kurds in the north are not too well inclined towards the new regime and with good reason. I expect actions like this to continue for some time.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
Weekend outlook - No significant protest events by the left, only localized marches/protests with low probability of violence. Leftist may attempt to disrupt any Charlie Kirk memorials this weekend, so the possibility of localized violence there could be high.

***
Trying to organize my thoughts on this. Sorry if in some ways it appears to be some muddled meanderings.

Trump this morning says they have captured Kirk’s shooter. I hope and pray this is so, but will wait for an official announcement.

Continuing on with Kirk’s assassination, social media the past couple days was flooded by leftists dancing on his grave, in many instances pronouncing vile gloats over his death and calls for more. Well, push back has been fast and furious as it appears that at least over 100 of these vile individuals have been quickly identified, their employers notified and are now on the unemployment lines.

Multiple social media sites have been allowing these grotesque death cheers and calls for more. One in particular - Bluesky posters threaten Trump, Elon Musk, Ben Shapiro, immediately after Charlie Kirk’s assassination, sick images

A slew of deranged users on Bluesky sent a barrage of threats to prominent Republicans and outspoken media personalities immediately after conservative activist Charlie Kirk was assassinated Wednesday.

Posters called for Tesla tycoon Elon Musk, conservative podcasters Ben Shapiro, Matt Walsh and Michael Knowles, as well as “Harry Potter” author J.K. Rowling, to be “next” in the hours after Kirk, 31, was pronounced dead, according to screenshots shared by one user.

As yesterday progressed, some of these worms moved their posts and even apologized. However, the damage was done and the avengers on the right had already captured their posts. A central hub of this activity is a website called Charlie’s Murderers, which was registered in the early evening on the day Kirk was shot and is revealing certain personal information, such as social media usernames and email addresses, of individuals the operators believe were celebrating the horrific murder.

Leftist ‘cancel culture’ has come back to bite them on the butt.

In one instance, a memorial service in Boise was interrupted by a heckler shouting F* Kirk. A number took offense at his intrusion and beat the snot out of him.

UPDATE ON THE SEARCH FOR THE SHOOTER

Trump said this morning they got the shooter. Hope so.
CBS Evening News reported last night that three law enforcement sources confirm the FBI and Utah DPS have identified the UVU person of interest in the Charlie Kirk shooting.

Yesterday, police released excellent photos of the shooter. He was wearing very distinctive clothing. Police also found the weapon - a Mauser 30.06 bolt action hunting rifle with an expended round in the chamber and a couple other rounds (internal magazine?) Ammunition found in the rifle believed to have been used in the fatal shooting of conservative activist Charlie Kirk was reportedly engraved with slogans linked to transgender and antifascist ideology. Ngo notes the significance -

“We don’t yet know what the trans and Antifa engravings are on the rifle cartridges believed to have been used with the gun to assassinate Charlie Kirk, but if they are a “series of arrows,” as CNN reports, it may be Antifa’s signature “Iron Front” logo, or the trans symbol, or something else.”

“The three-arrow symbol serves as a dog whistle in graffiti, banners, and social media posts, indicating that the person who displays it is part of Antifa or supports its violent goals.”

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1966329489975038044?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

If this is verified, there could be a multi pronged blowback against the Trans and Antifa movements. This could finally bring the violent left under critical scrutiny and away from the false right wing domestic terror “narrative” the left has been foisting since 0bama.

OTHER FALLOUT -

Now that some of the dust has settled, some on the left have realized the monster they have awakened, and are getting scared. Slate is a left-wing site which explains why part of their reaction to Charlie Kirk’s murder is an article suggesting the right’s response to it looks “ominous.”

On the broader political front, politicians from both sides are reassessing their public appearances and schedules with a greater level of security in mind. Leftist firebrands like AOC especially.

Turley notes in a podcast thé Trump’s address to the nation eulogizing Kirk that he is letting loose the govt to stamp our the “terrorist left”. If followed thru, this would place individuals and organizations under the microscope and possible arrest / prosecution. See his words here from FR post

https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4339772/posts

The left has opened the door to political violence that may or may not expand as we get closer to the 2026 midterms. The massive amount of glee from the left over the murder is ominous in indicating support for future attacks. On the right, anger is rising as well, though I don’t think it has reached the action kinetic level - yet. Liberal politicians and media mouthpieces on the left have been exposed and in some manner placed on notice.

I am not convinced that the genie will be able to be put back into the bottle. The bloodlust from the left is still too strong and they are close to turning the “on” switch to equal violent measures from the right. As I noted yesterday, the left feels “empowered” and we will likely see more of this. The CW2 meter moves upward, not by mass demonstrations, but by smaller, terror assignation attempts and even potentially select mass casualty events driven by the left.

***
Yesterday a bomb threat was made at the Headquarters of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) in Washington, D.C. and was determined to not be credible, according to a Spokesperson for the DNC.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.

Behind the scenes of Trump’s appearance at the Yankee’s game last night, the Secret Service and NYPD Counterterrorism Task Force were searching for a suspect who made credible threats against the President. FDNY and NYPD have issued alerts, and security at Yankee Stadium has been tightened. Trump’s schedule reportedly remained unchanged, according to the White House.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Consumer prices rose 2.9% in August from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from 2.7% the previous month and the biggest increase since January. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%, the same as in July. Both figures are above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
This remains below 3% for the past 6 months.

OBSERVATION - The fed’s 2% goal is no longer realistic without total destruction of the economy at this stage. Pundits are trying to link the slight rise to tariffs coming into effect, but the correlation is very weak. The markets are expecting the combination of low inflation and poor jobs market to force the fed to lower rates, but I don’t see it dropping more than a quarter point.

POLITICAL FRONT –

Ripples from Kirk’s assassination are shining a light on leftist democrats persistent and vocal calls for political violence.

TRUMP Watch –

Yankees stadium broke out into cheers of USA when Trump’s presence was announced.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 40 Shahed-type drones overnight, - Ukrainian air forces

Russian losses per 12/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+890 men
+1 tank
+2 AFVs
+40 artillery
+2 MLRS

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Novopetrovskoye(Ternove) village of Dnipropetrovsk region of Ukraine

Ukrainian drones attacked oil port Primorsk in Leningrad region of Russia, as well as several oil pumping stations supplying Ust-Luga port

According to Russian sources, over 115 Ukrainian drones have crossed the border into Bryansk region, mostly moving east and north. Many explosions are heard in the Smolensk region already.

Russian monitoring channels now report a UAV threat in occupied Kherson/Crimea as well. Drones are reportedly moving towards the Arabat Spit and Dhzankoi.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another low Russia drone night, following the pattern they’ve using the past several months. Apart from some minor gains, Russia continues to be pretty much stuck. No indicators of an imminent offensive other than troop redeployments.

Ceasefire/peace negotiations are dead in the water - again.

Belarus -

“Zapad 2025” kicks off today.

Poland –

Poland rejects President Trump’s suggestion that Russia’s drone raid “could have been a mistake.”

An extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council on Russian drones incursion will be held on Friday at 9 p.m. Polish time (3 p.m. local time), Krzysztof Szczerski, Poland’s Permanent Representative to the UN

Poland has deployed 40,000 soldiers along its border with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave.
Today, a massive joint military exercise of the Russian and Belarusian armies, “Zapad 2025,” will begin, simulating the conquest of Poland with tens of thousands of soldiers and nuclear missiles.

NOTE - Russia conducted a similar exercise prior to the invasion of Ukraine.

Poland shut its border with Belarus at midnight, setting up barbed wire and barricades, halting all crossings. Meanwhile, Belarus claims its checkpoints will continue to operate as usual.

Europe / NATO General –

The EU has summoned the envoys of Russia and Belarus in Brussels to protest over the “intentional and dangerous” Russian drone intrusion into Poland, an EU official said Friday

Russia’s actions and Belarus’s connivance in the use of its airspace pose a direct threat to the security of all countries in the region - joint statement by the Foreign Ministries of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- Gaza City continues to be hammered

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel will continue its pursuit of Hamas’ top leadership, even after the seemingly failed attempt to kill them in a strike on Qatar, Jerusalem’s ambassador to the United States said Tuesday night. “If we didn’t get them this time, we’ll get them the next time,” Ambassador Yechiel Leiter told Fox News. He acknowledged Israel might face criticism but added, “They’ll get over it. And Israel is being changed for the better.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon to the UN:

“For too long, Qatar has harboured terrorists in luxury hotels, while they orchestrate massacres... There will be no sanctuary for terrorists!”

***
Israel has agreed to an Egyptian request for an airdrop of aid today

***
Gaza City continues to get hammered as IDF forces progressively take away Hamas controlled sectors.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***

Emirati official: The UAE condemns Netanyahu’s “hostile statements” against Qatar and stresses that any attack on a Gulf state is an attack on the Gulf security system.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Israel’s strike has caused Qatar to come unglued to a degree. They thought their status would protect them, but the revelation that the highest political leadership of Hamas was hiding there under their protection has broken that veneer.

Gaza continues to fall to the Israeli onslaught. Hamas is unable to muster an effective ground defense nor rally its supporters in the international community.

Iran –
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 17, 2025

Explosion reported in the city of Khorramabad.
Persian Telegram channels claim Sardar Aladin, a senior Basij commander in the IRGC, has been eliminated.

OBSERVATION - The Basij is a paramilitary volunteer militia within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and one of its five branches. They are the brutal enforcers of Islamic laws under the mullahs and are widely hated. So Mossad involvement isn’t a given.

Lebanon -

UNIFIL Spokesperson: We are assisting the Lebanese Army in extending its control over areas in southern Lebanon and ensuring the safe return of residents to their villages.

Syria -
Threat Level - ADVISORY July 25, 2025

Over the past several days, Israel has broken up Iranian / Hezbollah teams in S Syria who apparently were trying to establish covert bases from which to strike Israel from.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September
- No Kings 2.0, 18 October 2025

***
More of just letting my thought flow, sorry

The nation is still tender from the murder of Kirk.

Yesterday, the Kirk’s killer was captured. His dad recognized his photos and ‘convinced’ him to turn himself in.

What do we know about him?

Tyler Robinson is apparently an Antifa affiliate and was allegedly involved in multiple Antifa Discord servers. He wrote on one bullet casing: Hey Fascist! Catch!

Ngo notes “Rifle cartridges from the Charlie Kirk assassination are confirmed marked with Antifa phrases, including lyrics from the Antifa song, “Bella Ciao.” In 2019, Antifa gunman Willem van Spronsen also ended his ICE attack manifesto with the same song.

https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1966518213803479117

High school acquaintances noted he was a “Reddit Leftist” (Note, Reddit is a cesspool of violent leftists). Another friend said he was left-wing on all issues and he became extreme on politics.

There are rumors that those he interacted with on Discord may have been tipped off to his plans. Developing.

Leftists are struggling to try to flip the story. They are now lying to convince people that his alleged killer was a Trump-voting conservative dude. This is being done by publishing altered photos and grossly twisting evidence against him to flat out lying.

Hate posts celebrating Kirk’s death continue to promulgate across social media sites. What is scary is the length and breadth of the left that are posting these things. One category these are being seen are from educators from K - College. In some ways not surprising given the hard leftist bent of the field. Others coming from the medical community, law enforcement, other first responders, military, and govt employees. One would consider these to be more respectful categories, but they are every bit as vile as the soy infused younger leftists on the net.

The good news is that when exposed to their employers, these individuals are increasingly finding themselves on the unemployment lines. Actions have consequences and the weight of Kirks murder is very much front burner to employers.

The terror listing from the left hasn’t ended. Renewed calls to kill individuals like Joe Rogan, Harry Potter author JK Rowling, conservative political commentators Ben Shapiro and Matt Walsh, among others. As I noted yesterday, these radicals are feeing empowered by this murder to want to commit more.

Besides efforts to doxx these leftists, it seems the murder has opened the gates for Trump to move against the core supporting elements.

“My administration will find each and every one of those who contributed to this atrocity and to other political violence, including the organizations that fund it and support it,” President Donald Trump said during an address yesterday, in response to the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.

This is a likely indicator the Trump administration will accelerate efforts to target far left groups and financiers. Trump could use federal Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organization (RICO) laws to target far left and progressive nonprofits that are linked to far left activism more broadly. The Trump administration may also order a shift of federal law enforcement priority toward far left activist groups, especially groups that have links to recent violence targeting federal agencies. Kirk’s murder has opened these avenues full. RICO will strike at the heart of their funding.

WHERE DO WE SIT NOW?

We are still early in a potential cycle of escalation by both the right and the left. A very early example was the riots at Berkeley CA back in 2016(?) where we saw the rise of “Based Stick Man” as conservative elements formed up to counter violence by Antifa leftists who were attacking conservative groups/meetings on campus. They drove Antifa off campus and forced the city into executing a ceasefire.

However, todays situation has gone far beyond that. Elements on the right are mad, very mad and organization to fight fire with fire if need be are being made. Should the left continue to move forward with an assassination plan on others, I think that doxxing of leftists would be their least concern.

We seem to be at a phase change in a CW2 / Gorilla war cycle. Three phases

1 Organization and consolidation

2 Progressive expansion <=== This is where I believe we have transitioned to.

3 Decisive phase - open CW

I believe the left is pushing hard the assassination option since they have been unable to muster larger support via the numerous national protests. They are now more desperate and summoning all their ability to radicalize people over the internet. They don’t have the support for another round of Floyd scale riots, but have support for assassination operations.

Robinson is a prime example - raised in a deep red family, radicalized via Reddit and Discord activists. There are thousands more like him roaming around with a short fuse to go violent.

***
(FO) Ezra Levin, the co-executive director of Indivisible, the country’s largest protest organizing group, said that direct pressure campaigns against the Supreme Court to oppose President Trump “won’t be very effective.”

Levin characterized the Supreme Court as empowering Trump’s “fascism,” adding that court reform is unlikely until Democrats can retake political power, which will be 2029 at the earliest.

OBSERVATION - Note the continuing use of the term “fascist” - deliberately setting up a form of dehumanization of the right / Trump supporters that would give them a self declared moral authority for tyrannical crackdowns on the right.

***
(FO) President Donald Trump said the administration will deploy National Guard troops and federal agencies into Memphis, TN. “We’re gonna straighten out the crime of these cities,” Trump added.

OBSERVATION - The list of cities being considered for federal law enforcement actions continues to grow. Get too many going at once and there will be far too few resources spread out over too many cities. This would be something the violent Antifa affiliated left could exploit.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

More than two dozen aircraft from the U.S., Japan and U.K. conducted tactical air exercises Thursday over waters east of Okinawa, Japan, as the security environment in the region grows “increasingly severe,” military officials said.
“This trilateral exercise reaffirms the strong intention among Japan, U.S. and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (U.K.) not to tolerate unilateral changes to the status quo by force,” Japan’s Joint Staff Office (JSO) said in a Friday news release.

A total of 26 aircraft took part in the trilateral air drills, according to the release.
The bulk of aircraft were from the U.S. Air Force. The service fielded two F-35A Lightning II fighters, four F-15E Strike Eagle fighters, an E-3 Sentry Airborne Early Warning and Control (AEWC) aircraft, three KC-135 Stratotanker tanker aircraft, an RC-135 Rivet Joint reconnaissance aircraft and a HC-130 search and rescue aircraft.

https://news.usni.org/2025/09/12/2-dozen-u-s-allied-aircraft-hold-drills-near-japan-in-increasingly-severe-security-environment

***
The U.S. Air Force partnered with Norwegian allies to test next-generation precision maritime strike capabilities Sept. 3 in the Norwegian Sea.

In partnership with Royal Norwegian Air Force F-35s and personnel, the U.S. Air Force’s 53rd Wing integrated a U.S. B-2 Spirit stealth bomber into a long-range strike scenario employing the Air Force Research Laboratory’s QUICKSINK maritime weapon, demonstrating seamless cooperation and interoperability to defeat a surface vessel in a realistic setting.
“This test is a clear example of how we work with trusted allies to bring new capabilities into play faster and smarter,” said Col. Scott Gunn, 53rd Wing commander. “We’re not just preparing for tomorrow; we’re shaping it together.”

The B-2 played a central role, employing precision-guided QUICKSINK munitions to engage and sink the maritime target. In addition to testing the munition’s capabilities, the mission also validated the aircraft’s enduring advantages, including its stealth, range, and payload flexibility, while reinforcing its evolving role in maritime strike.

https://www.af.mil/News/Article-Display/Article/4299532/us-norway-test-maritime-strike-in-high-north/

OBSERVATION - This is notable development in that the B2 / B21 are being looked at in other roles rather than a strategic bomber. This is similar to the B52’s multirole capabilities, with examples of buffs on station over Afghanistan a decade ago loaded with conventional guided bombs orbiting at high altitudes providing air support to ground elements. Lots of bombs, quick response.

Illegal Immigration –

A federal appeals court ruled Friday that the Trump administration can end legal protections for 430,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

The ruling by a three-judge panel of the 1st U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals is the latest twist in a legal fight over Biden-era policies that created new and expanded pathways for people to live in the United States, generally for two years with work authorization.

China -

China’s newest aircraft carrier and the country’s first to integrate an electromagnetic aircraft launching system was spotted for the first time Thursday sailing toward the Taiwan Strait, Japanese officials said.
People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) carrier Fujian (018), which has not yet been commissioned, sailed southwest in the East China Sea around 124 miles northwest of Uotsuri Island, according to Japan’s Joint Staff Office (JSO). The carrier was accompanied by two destroyers, CNS Hangzhou (136) and CNS Jinan (152). A Japanese P-3C Orion Maritime Patrol Aircraft surveilled the group.

Imagery released by the JSO showed the carrier with a clean flight deck bereft of any aircraft, helicopters and aircraft support vehicles.
Fujian was observed leaving Jiangnan Shipyard in Shanghai on Wednesday. The Type 003 aircraft carrier was undergoing maintenance at the facility following the completion of its eighth sea trial in May. Fujian began sea trials in May 2024.

https://news.usni.org/2025/09/11/chinas-newest-aircraft-carrier-sails-toward-taiwan-strait

OBSERVATION - This carrier is a marked improvement in China’s carrier forces. Earlier vessels were of the ‘ski jump’ kind and didn’t have a launching system. This limited the payload of the launched fighters. This carrier looks very similar to US carriers in layout as well ,though I think slightly smaller. Nonnuclear powered, so some of its endurance is limited at sea, it is ideal for force projection for the anticipated blockade effort against Taiwan.

Japan –

(FO) The Japanese government announced on Wednesday that it will shut down all of its economic centers in Russia due to strained relations. The centers were established in 1994 “to train personnel involved in economic ties between the two countries.” Japan made Russia aware of the decision on 27 August per the Japanese Foreign Ministry.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

President Donald Trump on Friday said his patience with Russian President Vladimir Putin was running out.
“It’s sort of running out and running out fast,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News’ “Fox and Friends” program.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/trump-puting-russia/2025/09/12/id/1226176/

OBSERVATION - Every day that Trump delays imposition of stronger sanctions and tariffs, putin gets bolder in his push to subjugate Ukraine via a military option.

Economic Impact –

The EU Council has extended sanctions against Russia for another six months, until March 15, 2026. The measures apply to over 2,500 individuals and entities, including asset freezes, travel bans, and restrictions on providing funds.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-70 range

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 164 Shahed-type drones and 1 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missile overnight, - Ukrainian air forces

Russian losses per 13/09/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+950 men
+4 tanks
+1 AFV
+39 artillery
+1 MLRS

Ukraine’s electronic warfare systems have become more effective against Russian Kinzhal missiles, making hits less frequent, Suspilne reports citing General Staff sources. Faster missiles are more vulnerable to jamming, officials explained. Russia has already lost at least $1.5B countering EW, forced to equip bombs and Shaheds with costly CRPA antennas worth $10–17K each.

Analysis and Future Operations —

Another low drone night. Ground ops continues at a slog for Russia but they continue to apparently minimize their losses from highs earlier this year.

Still watching for indicators of when and where Russia will launch its fall offensive.

Belarus -

“Zapad 2025” ongoing.

Poland –

”We urge Warsaw to consider the consequences that such a destructive step would imply and try to review its decision as soon as possible”, says Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zacharova in a statement.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk announced on Tuesday that Poland intends to close the border with Belarus from midnight on September 12, as a response to an upcoming military exercise between the allied Russia and Belarus to be held on September 12-16.

Zacharova says that the decision was made to ”justify a policy that further escalates tensions in Central Europe”.

Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, on NATO’s eastern flank, are on high alert ahead of the extensive military exercise. According to Tusk, among other things, an occupation of the strategically important Suwalki Corridor – a strip of land in northeastern Poland and southern Lithuania – will be simulated during the exercise.

https://swedenherald.com/article/russia-cautions-poland-on-belarus-border-closure-consequences

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced today that in response to the recent intrusion of several dozen Russian one-way attack drones into Poland, NATO would be launching Operation “Eastern Sentry” across NATO’s Eastern Front. The goal of the operation will be to strengthen the alliance’s defensive posture in Poland and the Baltics, with several members already announcing the deployment of military assets in support of Eastern Sentry, including Denmark who announced it would send two F-16s and an anti-air warfare frigate, France who will send three Rafales, and Germany who will contribute four Eurofighter Typhoons, with additional assets expected to be announced in the coming days and weeks by other allies in NATO

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Sept 22 - UN talks on the establishment of a Palestinian State.

Key overnight developments -

- More strikes taking down towers in Gaza City

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The Israeli army bombed and destroyed the Al-Nour Tower in Gaza City after warning its residents and those around it to evacuate.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

During the night, a missile launched from Yemen by the Houthis triggered alarms in the Tel Aviv area. The missile was intercepted

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Upcoming date - Sep 22 UN conference on a Palestinian state.

***
UN General Assembly overwhelmingly backs two-state solution and creation of an independent Palestinian state: 142 in favor, 12 abstained, 10 opposed, including the US, Hungary, and Argentina

Egypt has decided to reduce security coordination with Israel “until further notice” after the Doha attack. According to Al-Arabiya, Cairo will “re-arrange security communications” with Israel as part of its steps

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hostage release / ceasefire talks are still dead in the water. Israel continues on with original plan.

The uncivilized world pressing forward on a ‘two state’ solution - a solution Israel has flat out rejected. Gaza was a porto-two state test run, and we all can see how that has turned out.

Egypt’s aggressiveness opposite of Gaza is indicative of just how much they fear the radicals elements in the population. This same group attempted to overthrow the Egyptian govt in addition to fomenting more recently rebellion of tribes in the Sinai. The military will forcefully drive Gazans back should they breach the massive wall Egypt built to keep them in.

There is nothing on the current radar to slow or limit Israel’s ground operations. Just a methodological flow to take out Hamas centers built into the buildings of Gaza City and clear the areas out.

Turkey –

Reports in Turkish media claim Moscow wants to take back the S-400 air defense systems it sold to Turkey in 2019, aiming to resell them to other countries amid shortages. Turkey, which paid $2.5B for two systems, never integrated them into NATO, while the missiles are already halfway through their shelf life and require costly maintenance.

With Ankara advancing its own Çelik Kubbe air defense system and seeking relief from US CAATSA sanctions that blocked F-35 participation, analysts suggest Turkey may be open to returning the S-400s, especially as it negotiates with Washington on F-16s and a possible way back into the F-35 program.

https://x.com/noelreports/status/1966802577258840083?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Doubtful Russia is going to ‘resell’ these systems. It has urgent demands already in Ukraine. The only other country that could benefit would be Iran, who lost most of their ADA assets during the 12-day war.

It would be questionable if the US would reconsider return to the F16 and F35 programs given Turkeys hostile actions in the region.

Mexico -

Mexico is considering raising tariffs on over 1,400 imports, including tariffing Chinese auto parts, cars, textiles, and steel at 50% as part of their effort to reshore manufacturing. China’s Commerce Ministry warned Mexico to “exercise caution and think twice before making any tariff adjustment” in response.

OBSERVATION - IMHO, this is evidence of the weakness of China’s economy. Under pre-wuhan plandemic conditions, Mexico wouldn’t dare such a move.

Misc of Note –

Trying to calm down from my anger with the left over Kirk’s murder.

Things are progressing towards fall here in the Redoubt and with that are prep evaluations and getting ready for the soon to arrive winter. Kirk’s murder has thrown a degree of uncertainty into the future, and preps need to be adjusted to the changing threat matrix. I think we have until next spring before the large scale violence factor rears its head just in time for midterm elections. But winter may not be peaceful either.

In that, pray and keep prepping.

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