Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

HEADS UP - My posts for the next couple weeks will continue to have the potential to be a bit sporadic as August activities take over my time.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The Trump administration imposed additional sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) for attempting to prosecute American officials, as well as those of allied countries, especially Israel.

In a statement, the State Department said:

Today, the United States is sanctioning four individuals, currently serving on the International Criminal Court (ICC). The Department of State’s designations are made pursuant to Executive Order (E.O.) 14203, which authorizes sanctions on foreign persons engaged in certain malign efforts by the ICC and aims to impose tangible and significant consequences on those directly engaged in the ICC’s transgressions against the United States and Israel.

The Department is designating the following individuals pursuant to section 1(a)(ii)(A) of E.O. 14203, for having directly engaged in any effort by the ICC to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute a protected person without consent of that person’s country of nationality:

- KIMBERLY PROST, Judge, Trial Division, International Criminal Court
- NICOLAS YANN GUILLOU, Judge, Trial Division, International Criminal Court
- NAZHAT SHAMEEM KHAN, Deputy Prosecutor, International Criminal Court
- MAME MANDIAYE NIANG, Deputy Prosecutor, International Criminal Court

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-88/

OBSERVATION - The ICC has essentially morphed over years into a quasi-judicial enforcement arm of the globalists. One more tool in their tool bag to try to enforce their agenda on the world.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated July 26, 2025

UPCOMING -
- “People vs. Billionaires Week of Action” , 21-27 August
- Labor day of action, Sept 1
- 5-day national economic and labor boycott for 16-20 September

***

The Department of Class Solidarity launched a project to “audit” and track over 1,000 billionaires and their political campaign contributions. They are also sponsoring a “People vs. Billionaires Week of Action” which runs from 21-27 August, just before the Labor Day National Day of Action on Monday, 01 September.

OBSERVATION - Very typical class warfare MO. Also moves into territory where the next phase will be seeking to assassinate these billionaires

POLITICAL FRONT –

For all practical purposes its over. Texas will have a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms, though it took over two weeks after state Democrats unnecessarily fled to prevent a quorum. The new map gives Republicans five winnable seats, all majority Hispanic districts.

OBSERVATION - Democrats have already begun the legal challenge to the redistricting, however, due to the influx into to Texas over the past couple years, a redistricting is throughly justified and Texas will likely win in the courts.

RELATES - Newscum and kalifornian democrats are attempting to initiate redistricting but hitting into a wall that the law, state constitution and public all say no too.

Illegal Immigration –

The Justice Deptt delivered demand letters to sanctuary cities, counties, and states.

“Any sanctuary jurisdiction that continues to put illegal aliens ahead of American citizens can either come to the table or see us in court.”

OBSERVATION - These are just opening salvos in the developing conflict to enforce national immigration policy on an equal basis across the nation

North/South Korea –

CSIS has revealed the Sinpung-dong Missile Operating Base, an undeclared North Korean facility about 25km from the Chinese border, likely housing nuclear-capable ICBMs able to reach the United States - Yonhap

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****
Russia continues to try to position itself as the good guys in the saga with the Ukraine war.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Mostly fair with temps the 50-80 range with a cooling trend towards there end of the period

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

On the night of August 2, Russia attacked with 614 air attack assets.

Shot down:
546/574 Shahed/various type drones
1/4 Kh-47M2 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles
0/2 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles
18/19 Kh-101 cruise missiles
12/14 Kalibr cruise missiles
0/1 Unknown type missile

It is the biggest air attack since July.

Russian losses per 21/08/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff

+830 men
+1 tank
+5 AFVs
+41 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+315 UAVs

One person was killed in a drone and missile strike on the western city of Lviv, while 15 others were reported wounded in an attack on the south-western Transcarpathia region.

Several large fires can be seen burning tonight at the Novoshakhtinsk Oil Refinery in the Rostov Oblast of Southwestern Russia, following a Ukrainian drone attack earlier against a number of military and infrastructure targets near the Sea of Azov in Southern Russia.

The village of Tolstoy, Donetsk region, has been retaken and brought back under Ukrainian control.

Ukrainian Special Operations Forces confirmed they hit a Russian fuel train near Dzhankoi station in occupied Crimea during a night operation on August 21. The strike disrupted logistics for Russia’s southern military grouping.

Two powerful explosions rocked occupied Sevastopol around 03:35 near the “Pivdennyi” airfield on Cape Khersones, likely hitting a Russian Black Sea Fleet military site. Fires broke out at the scene, confirmed by NASA FIRMS data

Summary —

Like I warned, Russian unleashed a large drone and missile attack before the end of the week. A number of targets in Western Ukraine were affected. However, Ukrainian air defenses appear to have done a pretty good job this round. I don’t think Russia is thru in the cycle, so I expect more large attacks the next couple of days - following their pattern

Action on the ground is interesting. One of the lowest days of casualties in a while, while there appears to be a lot of activity on the ground. Again, I see the uptick by both sides being efforts to gain tactical ground as the mud season is coming in the next couple months.

Soap opera on talks with Russia seemingly have returned back to status quo after the Trump intervention.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO deployed fighter jets overnight following Russian strikes on the central Ukrainian city of Kremenchuk, reports Fox News.

Romania’s Ministry of National Defense said two “Typhoon aircraft belonging to the German Air Force ... were scrambled to monitor the air situation in the border area with Ukraine, in the north of Tulcea County.

“The [Romanian] Ministry of National Defense’s air surveillance system identified groups of drones launched by the Russian Federation, which attacked Ukrainian ports on the Danube. During the mission, no airborne vehicles were recorded entering national airspace,” it added.

It’s the second time in three days that allied planes have been scrambled in precautionary moves.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/nato-russia-ukraine-romania/2025/08/20/id/1223263/

OBSERVATION - This comes after a Russian Shahed drone impacted and exploded in a Polish field. Some see this as Russia jerking NATO’s chain

Pakistan / India –

India successfully tested its nuclear-capable Agni-5 IRBM from Chandipur.
The missile reaches Mach 24, with a 5,000 km range, and an upgraded 7,500 km variant in development.
It can carry three nuclear warheads for simultaneous launch.

OBSERVATION - Definitely increases India’s regional threat range and capabilities. More a warning to China than Pakistan.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Israel pushes into Gaza City

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel’s Ministry of Defense will acquire two more Boeing-manufactured refueling aircraft from the United States for about $500 million.
These aircraft will be fitted with Israeli systems and integrated into the Air Force, bringing the total fleet to six.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF spokesperson in a statement: We have reached operational control of about 75% of the Gaza Strip and have moved to the second phase of ‘Gideon’s Chariots,’ in which we have begun the operation to take control of the city of Gaza. Our forces are already operating on the outskirts of the city The IDF destroyed approximately 30 kilometers of terror tunnels and 2,000 terrorists since March

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

It appears that Hamas wasn’t expecting Israel to so aggressively and so easily begin the push into Gaza City. They saw it coming - hence all the last minute ‘hostage’ negotiations but probably thought they had more time.

Israel for its part needs to fight an accelerated battle. The longer this drags out at this stage, the more support for Hamas in the international community can develop (mostly in the discredited bleats on starvation, etc).

Lebanon -

Israel struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon near the city of Tyre. Secondary explosions testify of weapon cache that was hit.

Egypt –

Egypt reportedly has mobilized armored forces into the Sinai in response to Israeli action in Gaza.

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