Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025
For historical reference TM2024 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah
I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.
So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power
Thanks Godzilla
So much for claims that Israel is committing genocide.
What other nation warns civilians to flee for their safety before a military campaign?
Trump's winning thiz one... and inflation's down, and war's are ending...There's hope.
Yesterday’s post got OBE’d. Sorry
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th
Antifa continues its blockade of the ICE facility in Portland and is not gaining much support from the locals. Using loud music, they are attempting to prevent any sleep of ICE agents staying in the facility. At the same time, locals are getting increasingly agitated at not being able to sleep either.
Overall, riots and protests are down considerably across the country. Still assessing and gathering data in regards to any actions over the 4th of July holiday
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
U.S. Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell reiterated the U.S. central bank plans to “wait and learn more” about the impact of tariffs on inflation before lowering interest rates, again setting aside President Donald Trump’s demands for immediate and deep rate cuts.
“We’re simply taking some time,” Powell said at a central bank gathering in Portugal, a day after Trump sent him a handwritten missive noting how low other central banks had cut rates and suggesting the U.S. needed to move.
“As long as the U.S. economy is in solid shape, we think that the prudent thing to do is to wait and learn more and see what those effects might be,” Powell continued.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/jerome-powell-federal-reserve/2025/07/01/id/1217163/
OBSERVATION - Powell is one of those landmines biden/democrats left behind to sabotage the Trump administration - even to the point of damaging the economy if necessary. The multiple metrics Powell laid out for rate reduction have been obtained for several months now. The only reason for reluctance to do so is to hurt Trump by hurting the economy.
POLITICAL FRONT –
J D Vance cast the 51st vote this morning, as the administration’s big beautiful reconciliation bill eked through the Senate. Three Republican senators–Thom Tillis, Susan Collins and Rand Paul–joined all Democrats in voting against the bill. It returns to the House for concurrence or modification.
***
More than 20 House Republicans are threatening to tank the reconciliation budget package that was narrowly approved by the Senate on Tuesday, just days before a self-imposed July 4 deadline to get the signature legislation of President Donald Trump’s second term to his desk.
The Senate made several changes before passing its amended version of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, needing a tiebreaking vote by Vice President JD Vance to keep it afloat. The House must pass the Senate version, and if it makes any changes, it has to go back to the Senate for a vote.
The changes left House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., frustrated, leaving him just days to flip GOP holdouts and clear procedural hurdles to get the legislation to Trump’s desk.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/mike-johnson-house-big-beautiful-bill/2025/07/01/id/1217257/
OBSERVATION - RINOs in the senate hid behind the parlimentarian’s ruling for many of the changes to the House version. Then outright stabbed the US in the back like in stripping out the provision to take Medicaid away from illegals.
TRUMP Watch –
Trump and Musk get into another tiff. Musk threatens to put together a 3d party to challenge democrats and MAGA. Trump suggests DOGE look at govt contracts with Musk.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Threat status remains elevated due to ongoing Israeli / Iranian conflict
FBI urges the U.S critical infrastructure sectors to stay alert for potential Iranian cyber threats.
***
A shadowy crew of international cyberhackers known as “Scattered Spider” are now believed to be targeting the airline industry, the FBI warned in a new alert.
The mysterious gang, which has been linked to data breaches at insurance giant Aflac and several major retailers in the United Kingdom in recent years, now has its sights set on air travel, the feds said in an urgent warning posted online over the weekend.
“The FBI has recently observed the cybercriminal group Scattered Spider expanding its targeting to include the airline sector,” the agency said. “These actors rely on social engineering techniques, often impersonating employees or contractors to deceive IT help desks into granting access.”
. . . . believed to be led by young hackers in the US and the UK
Illegal Immigration –
Border Czar Tom Homan announced on Monday that he formally launched a federal investigation into Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) for reportedly employing an illegal immigrant on her staff and helping other illegal aliens evade Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents.
OBSERVATION - She could be in jeopardy, but will the spineless Speaker take action as well as the DoJ.
***
ICE acting Director Todd M. Lyons accused CNN of promoting an “ICE spotting app” which “is willfully endangering the lives of officers.” Lyons says that his agents have seen a 500% increase in assaults.
OBSERVATION - This has been upgraded to a full investigation. Incitement at this level is a serious charge.
***
(FO)
Panama reports that Darien Gap crossings have effectively ceased with only 10 crossings in June, 13 in May, and 73 in April. In April 2023, Panama reported 40,297 crossings. The government attributes this to Panama installing barbed wire across normal trails and President Trump beginning deportations in the United States.
OBSERVATION - The flow of illegals thru the Darian Gap was a key metric of the biden era, tracking millions moving northward from South America from countries around the world. Millions of dollars were spent by NGOs (many of which have been discovered to have been funded by USAID and other govt agencies ) assisting the passage.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched 4 S-300 missiles from Kursk and 114 drones (Shaheds & decoys). Ukrainian air defense neutralized 79 UAVs: 40 shot down, 39 suppressed by EW.
Russian losses per 02/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1110 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+40 artillery
+1 AD system
White House confirms it has halted weapons that Ukraine was scheduled to receive, including PAC3 Patriots, 155mm artillery rounds, GMLRS, Stinger, AIM-7, and Hellfire missiles.
Two days ago, the Ukrainian Air Force carried out what appears to be its first large scale cruise missile raid in months on Russian targets.
Missiles and explosions have been reported in Rostov, Crimea, and Donetsk.
Russian channels report a number of Storm Shadow/SCALPs flying low towards targets on the Crimean peninsula. Ukrainian drones also attacked military enterprises in Izhevsk of Udmurtiya region of Russia. One of the hits at the Kupol plant, part of Almaz-Antey corporation, manufacturer of air defense systems and drones
One major target is a confirmed missile strike at the HQ of 8th army of Russian Armed Forces at the occupied part of Donetsk region yesterday evening. Acting commander of Russia’s 8th Guards Combined Arms Army, Colonel Ruslan Goryachkin, has reportedly been killed during the strike.
Zaporizhzhia Axis -
Ukraine’s intelligence destroyed a critical railway segment used by Russians in Zaporizhzia region. Traffic was halted for over a week. On July 1, after repairs, Russians resumed military rail transport, only for another blast to strike. A locomotive was disabled, blocking one of the main supply lines yet again.
NOTE - Zaporizhzhia is one of the reported zones of the Russian summer offensive. Russia uses rail lines almost exclusively to move troops, equipment and munitions. These strikes will hamper efforts to prepare for an assault.
Summary —
No real changes to the situation with a day lost. Ukraine broke out some of their Storm Shadow/SCALPs to hit the Russian 8th army and take out its commander. I wonder if Ukraine isn’t rediscovering a page out of the war book Israel has so effectively used - targeting military leadership / chain of command. Early in the war, when Russia had serious comms problems, high level leaders were far forward in order to try to maintain command and control of units. This made them big targets, and Ukraine took them out by the dozens. As the fight along the front has essentially stagnated, Russian commanders are setting back into more fixed command posts, making them juicy targets for drones.
So far the anticipated Russian offensive has still only sputtered at best.
Pakistan / India –
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar called on India to renew its participation in the Indus Waters Treaty. Dar classified India’s withdrawal of the treaty as “hydro terrorism” stating that it “jeopardize[s] the lives of [Pakistan’s] 240 million citizens.”
OBSERVATION - India withdrew from the treaty after the terrorist attack that precipitated the recent scrum between the two counties.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu to meet with Trump next week
- Trump announces 60 day ceasefire plan
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Army Radio: The government has decided there will be no obstacle to the return of Israelis to the Gaza Strip.
***
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to ask US President Donald Trump to guarantee American approval of future Israeli strikes on Iran if the Islamic Republic returns to advancing its nuclear or ballistic missile programs, Kan Reshet Bet reported on Wednesday.
According to the report, the Prime Minister may even ask for an official guarantee in the form of an American side agreement.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Current Israeli operations -
Operational Deployment:
- Division 162: Holding and operating in Northern Gaza.
- Division 98: Reinforcing control in Northern Gaza.
- Division 99: Securing Central Gaza.
- Division 36: Operating in Southern Gaza.
- Division 143: Maintaining perimeter security and control in Rafah.
***
Trump: Israel has agreed to 60 days ceasefire in Gaza. “I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal,” Trump wrote, “because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE.”
***
Hamxs has issued an ultimatum to Yasser Abu Shabaab, commander of the ‘Popular Forces’ militia in Rafah. This is the same militia that has been cooperating with Israel. “You have 10 days to surrender.”
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli army said it arrested an Iranian terror cell in southern Syria
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Israeli forces withdraw from Al-Ain refugee camp, west of Nablus, after hours of raids and incursions that targeted a number of homes.
Israeli security forces carry out a campaign of arrests, field investigations, and raids in the Doha area, Aida and Deheishe refugee camps, and the town of Husan in Bethlehem.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
After the missile launch from Yemen, the Defense Minister threatens: “Yemen’s law is the same as Tehran’s. After we hit the head of the snake, we will also hit the Houthis. Whoever raises his hand against Israel - his hand will be cut off.”
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi source says that Israel must remove Hamas from power in Gaza before normalization can occur.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Hamas is struggling to maintain its rule in Gaza. Not only have they gotten the clans increasingly angry with them and large fights have broken out, they are threatening ‘Popular Forces’ militia in Rafah. Internal rebellion and increasing IDF pressures are making life hard to be Hamas.
Trump has announced a 60 day ceasefire plan, but whether Hamas will accept is questionable given their repeated demands for Israel to essentially surrender to their terms in total.
The overall Israeli operation in Gaza, while maintaining the initiative, clearly was slowed down by the fight with Iran. Now estimated to control only 60% of Gaza, this is below what was initially said the goal was by this stage of the operation. Now with a potential two week window before a potential ceasefire, chances for Israel to obtain their goal of the complete control of the strip and destruction of Hamas is pushed down the road.
BTW, I’ll be in the future dropping Syria/Hezbollah/Iran from the Israel section, moving the reporting to Syria in general.
See Iran below for current Israel/Iran issues
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Threat Level reduced to WATCH from WARNING due to the ceasefire holding and no evidence of any impending action by either side, apart from Israeli targeted drone strikes.
***
The US bombing of Iran’s key Fordow nuclear site has “seriously and heavily damaged” the facility, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview with CBS News.
“No one exactly knows what has transpired in Fordow. That being said, what we know so far is that the facilities have been seriously and heavily damaged,” Araghchi said in the interview broadcast on Tuesday.
https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-859699
RELATED - Satellite imagery shows considerable heavy equipment at Fordow.
OBSERVATION - The argument over the extent of destruction to Iran’s nuclear program continues to be waged in the information / propaganda battlefields. It is very likely that Iran will not be able to make significant progress for at least the next few years, until facilities can be rebuilt and sensitive, expensive equipment can be replaced. Fordow is one such site generating a lot of discussion. One simple fact, the blowout from the ventilation shafts over the main gallery indicate the MOPs went off in the main enrichment chamber. Those centrifuges are too sensitive to survive the shock and violence of such blasts. They may just be attempting to recover what they can.
***
An explosion was reported at a weapons and missile warehouse near Banafsheh Park in Tehran.
OBSERVATION - ‘Explosions’ at various military facilities across Iran continue, evidence of continued operations by Mossad. Free operations of Israel in the air and obviously on the ground will continue to plague Iran. Anything missile or nuclear program related will continue to be struck in a manner below the radar of the current ceasefire conditions.
Misc of Note –
Follow-up on the ambush that killed two firefighters and left a third is seriously injured after investigators say a lone gunman opened fire on fire crews responding to a brush fire on Canfield Mountain Sunday, near Coeur d’ Alene, Idaho.
The shooter has been identified as Wess Roley, a 20 year old with a history of violence and probable mental illness. Reported to have lived out of his truck for a considerable time. He is believed to be LGBT related “fuzzy”.
These new pieces of the puzzle indicate why the MSM have dropped this story - no neo-nazi N Idahoan involved, but a mentally deranged liberal (and possible LGBT affiliated) individual.
As a volunteer first responder (Search and Rescue) we discussed in our meetings maintaining alertness when ever we arrive on scene. Personal notes that many of our callouts over the past couple years have had a serious criminal likelihood involved (ie hiding out in woods to avoid law enforcement).
Thanks Godzilla
Holy cow, where has the year gone? Already tomorrow’s the celebration of the 4th of July.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The Washington State Patrol plans to utilize cell phone data to identify parts of the road that are high-risk for speeding. Once spots are identified, the agency will deploy additional troopers to monitor those stretches during times of higher traffic.
The data that the Washington State Patrol purchased from a company called Michelin Mobil does not yet track real-time movements, according to the agency, as it only includes records of when and where drivers most often brake, accelerate their vehicles, and use their phones.
OBSERVATION - So here we see a patsy for the Globalists beta testing another way to surveil citizens. Surveillance is the name of the game for globalists, and surveillance that produces legal problems to the citizen are high on the list. It is a matter of fear and control. While they claim there is no ‘personal’ data collected, the availability of such data is still out there and will likely be included at some future date.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th
Extended weekend out look doesn’t indicate anything big on the radar, just a lot of the smaller protests covering a plethora of grievances. The 4th may see a spike in protests as they are generally very anti_American. I would venture to guess that there will be several street/highway closure protests on the 4th - just to tick off Americans. Potential for violence is still there, but unlikely except for Antifa strongholds and major urban areas.
***
Portland Police once again cleared the illegal camp outside the ICE facility on July 1. Undeterred, Antifa militants set up a base of operations and safe house inside The Matisse apartment building on South Lowell Street. They returned last night to disrupt the neighborhood with loud noises and screaming.
https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1940572414946967745?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
- July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.
(FO)
The FBI and Department of Homeland Security issued a threat assessment warning of possible terror attacks over the Independence Day weekend.
“We are concerned about the potential threat of copycat attacks inspired by the 2025 New Year’s Day vehicle-ramming attack in New Orleans and continued messaging [from foreign terrorist organizations] calling for attacks against Western targets,” according to the FBI bulletin. FBI also warns of possible attacks from lone wolf “U.S.-based violent extremists” in the bulletin. “Lone offenders, in particular, remain a concern due to their ability to often avoid detection until operational and to inflict significant casualties.” Lone wolf attackers could use “weapons, chemical irritants, bodily fluids or other hazardous materials” in their attacks.
The bulletin also expresses concern over the potential for drone attacks or other attacks against soft targets like the New York or San Francisco ferry systems.
FBI says they have no specific intelligence about a threat over the holiday weekend.
OBSERVATION - High visibility days/events are always a concern and with today’s domestic and global tensions, even more so. “Lone Wolf” attacks appear to be high on their watch list, though one cannot rule out a much larger operation, likely with Iranian support, against soft targets as well.
This said, enjoy the weekend, just be situationally aware at all times.
Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025
Job openings soared to a higher-than-expected level in May, signaling the U.S. labor market’s persistent resilience amid economic uncertainty.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) data show that the number of job vacancies climbed by 374,000 to 7.769 million in May, from an upwardly revised 7.395 million in April.
The U.S. economy needs to add approximately 150,000 jobs a month just to keep up with population growth. Unfortunately, the latest monthly report from ADP shows that the U.S. economy actually lost jobs last month. Private sector employment dropped by 33,000 in June, and that was the very first decline that we have witnessed since 2023…
U.S. employers added 147,000 jobs in June as the American labor market continues to show surprising resilience despite uncertainty over President Donald Trump’s economic policies. The unemployment rate ticked down 4.1% from 4.2% in May, the Labor Department said Thursday.
Hiring rose modestly from a revised 144,000 in May and beat economists expectations of fewer than 118,000 new jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/jobs-economy-unemployment/2025/07/03/id/1217460/
OBSERVATIONS - Disputes concerning what the June jobs report is telling us. ADP vs Govt numbers. I would venture to guess that some negative aspects are from initial responses to tariffs. Others due to the continued repressive Fed rates. IMHO, the bottom line is that jobs are holding but the economy needs to see relief from the Fed and soon.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The House of Representatives voted to move forward with President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion bill, called a “big, beautiful bill,” bringing it closer to final approval in Congress. This was a big win for House Speaker Mike Johnson from Louisiana, even though some challenges remain.
Lawmakers voted 219 to 213 early Thursday to start debating the huge bill, a step called a “rule vote.” This sets up a final vote in the House later this morning. Only one Republican, moderate Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania, voted against moving forward.
TRUMP Watch –
Paramount has agreed to a $16 million settlement in response to a lawsuit filed by President Donald Trump concerning the editing of CBS’ “60 Minutes” interview with then-Vice President Kamala Harris, who was running as the 2024 Democrat presidential nominee at the time.
According to statements provided to the press, Paramount indicated that the money will go toward funding Trump’s future presidential library, rather than going to the president himself.
OBSERVATION - Paramount got off easy with this judgement.
Illegal Immigration –
Republicans are flooding ICEBlock, an app to give a heads-up to illegals on the whereabouts of ICE agents, with false reports.
***
Most significantly, perhaps, is that illegal alien got-aways in June decreased by 90 percent compared to the same time last year when Biden was in office. Under Biden, an estimated two million got-aways entered the U.S. in just four years.
That drop in got-aways is important, experts have said, because this sub-sect of illegal aliens tends to be those who have a criminal record and thus want to avoid detection by U.S. Border Patrol for fear of being quickly removed.
China -
. . . . a former US diplomat published an opinion piece in the NY Post titled “Is Chinese President Xi Jinping on his way out?”
Over the past few months, unprecedented developments point to the potential, and potentially imminent, fall of China’s “Chairman of Everything” Xi Jinping. Chinese Communist Party elders — including Hu Jintao, Xi’s immediate predecessor, whom Xi humiliated at the 20th Party Congress in 2022 — are now running things behind the scenes…
Xi’s downfall has been rumored before. But never have we seen the recent purges (and mysterious deaths) of dozens of People’s Liberation Army generals loyal to Xi; all replaced by non-Xi loyalists.
Zhang Youxia, with whom Xi had a major falling out after helping Xi secure an unprecedented third five-year term, is now the de facto leader of the PLA.
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2025/07/02/is-there-anything-to-these-rumors-about-xi-xinping-n3804422
OBSERVATION - Interesting read at the link above. China’s economy has been on life support since wuhan crashed the global economy. Added to this the immense expenditures to build up the military for a Taiwan and regional take over have added more pressure. China politics have been loaded with intrigue and this suggests more is a foot than normal.
This related news may be related -
(FO) China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed this morning that Xi Jinping will not attend the BRICS Summit from 05-08 July. China will send Premier Li Qiang instead.
***
China’s Ministry of Commerce promised to “strike back to protect [China’s] own legitimate rights” if it felt the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal was “at the expense of China’s interests.”
Trump announced yesterday a tariff / trade agreement with Vietnam - a key economic competitor in the region.
North/South Korea –
North Korea is tripling the number of troops fighting for Russia in Ukraine, sending 25,000 to 30,000 more soldiers, CNN reported, citing an intelligence assessment from Ukrainian officials.
The country sent 11,000 troops to help repel Ukraine from the Kursk region of Russia last November. About 4,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed, CNN reported. Russian President Vladmir Putin did not confirm North Korea’s involvement until late April.
Ukrainian intelligence says North Korean troops will be engaged in combat in Russian-occupied Ukraine and will be integrated with Russian troops.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/north-korea-russia-ukraine/2025/07/02/id/1217377/
Japan –
Japan is reportedly updating its ‘megaquake’ preparedness plan — Some tourists are avoiding Japan this summer due to social media-fueled fears, sparked in part by a manga predicting a July 5, 2025 disaster.
https://x.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1940347619949367442
OBSERVATION - Japan has the world’s most advanced seismic standards and emergency plans in the world. They have to since the country is regularly hit with major events. Unfortunately, seismically threatened regions of the US - west coast in particular - are grossly unprepared for the ‘big one’. The Cascadia exercise of a number of years ago (about 10? now) only began to scratch the surface of earthquake preparedness. Normalcy bias is rampant and the ‘big one’ will be devastating, not only to the directly affected area, but the entire country thru secondary and tertiary effects.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
Personnel Issues –
The Russian Defense Ministry has confirmed the death of Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Navy, Major General Mikhail Gudkov. He was killed on July 2 during combat operations in one of the Kursk border areas
***
N Korea coughing up more bodies for the meat grinder, see “North/South Korea” above
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Last night, Ukrainian forces neutralized 40 out of 52 Russian UAVs. Of these, 22 were shot down by air defense systems, while 18 were jammed or lost contact due to electronic warfare.
Russian losses per 03/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1000 men
+1 tank
+5 AFVs
+21 artillery
General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at the military arsenal near Velyke Orikhove at the occupied part of Donetsk region. Videos posted on social media show a massive secondary explosion.
2 people killed, 3 wounded as result of Russian missile strike at port infrastructure in Odesa
Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Toretsk and Novopavlivka.
Summary —
Another day, another Russian general nailed. Not sure if Ukraine is following Israeli game plan on beheading leadership or not.
On the ground, things pretty stagnant. Of interest is that Ukraine continues to recapture territory in the Sumy theater. Sumy was reportedly to be one of the strategic supporting assaults to the Russian main effort in the Donetsk region.
With the summer offensive in mind, N Korea tossing an additional 25-30K into the mix may provide some relief. No details as to the speciality of the forces - are they grunt infantry or engineers, etc. In any case, they could be used in rear area work, freeing up Russians for the attack. NK forces faced serious losses when first employed in the Kursk fight and the possibility of them being thrown against a dug in, drone equipped Ukraine force may make matters worse. Pending more info, this could free up a month’s worth of conscripts to the Russian front lines.
Ukraine continues to hit major sites via drones. Currently in a lull in Russian drone/missile attacks. If their past history continues, I expect another major attack by the weekend.
Finally, with the announced reduction in US arms and munitions to Ukraine, either Europe has to step up further or Ukraine has to buckle down and be more efficient in its use of materials. Over a year ago, Ukraine was scolded over its wasteful use of Javelin ATGMs, and other munitions. This reduction may also embolden Russia to press harder on its battle of attrition to try to make increased gains.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Cease fire proposal details come out.
- Israel tentatively accepts conditions
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israel has confirmed its acceptance of a ceasefire proposal by President Donald J. Trump‘s Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff. This comes a day after Trump announced that Israel had agreed to the necessary conditions for a ceasefire in Gaza. The Qatari hostage deal proposal, which is essentially the Witkoff framework with some modifications, officials in Israel, the US, and the mediating countries are now awaiting Hamas’s response.
The current proposal on the table includes the release of 10 Israeli hostages: eight on the first day and two on Day 50, as well as the return of 18 bodies of murdered Israeli hostages.
Hamas will also be required not to hold filmed “release ceremonies” for the hostages, as it has done in the past.
***
A bipartisan group of lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives introduced new legislation this week that would grant President Donald Trump the authority to provide Israel with access to B-2 stealth bombers and bunker-busting bombs, should Iran resume efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
The proposed bill–officially titled the Bunker-Buster Act–was introduced by Rep. Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), and is being described as a preemptive measure to bolster Israeli deterrence and ensure Tehran does not rebuild its underground nuclear infrastructure.
“This bill gives the president the authority to equip Israel with the tools and training they need to deter Tehran and make the world a safer place,” Lawler said in a statement. Gottheimer added, “Iran, the leading state sponsor of terror, and one of America’s top enemies, can never have a nuclear weapon. That’s why I strongly supported our military actions earlier this month.”
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
Israeli army intercepted two rockets launched from northern Gaza Strip
Observers noting that IAF large strikes all across Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Report: Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, “furiously” rejected the Lebanese government’s proposal demanding that Hezbollah disarm.
Qassem declared that “the organization will not agree to be humiliated and surrender its land and weapons to the ‘Israeli enemy.’” According to him, “as an organization, we will not accept anyone threatening us to give up, as we will not relinquish our rights.” Qassem noted that his organization fights Israel not only as an occupier but as a strategic threat to the entire region and the world.
After today, this section will be folded back into the general Lebanon section as activity levels have significantly declined.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
All 14 Likud ministers, Knesset speaker demand Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu immediately annex occupied West Bank – AA, citing signed letter
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
The buzz about this new ceasefire proposal may be oversold. Appears to be warmed over Witkoff proposals of the past - restating conditions that Hamas has repeatedly said were not starters. The question is, has the recent offensive by Israel and, destruction of the major threat from Iran changed its mind and bargaining positions? Recent statements by current Hamas leadership still reflect an even harder line stance on their demands. Egypt and Qatar likely emphasizing that Hamas forces face being eliminated in Gaza, though its political leadership still resides in luxury in Qatar. Hamas may well be deep within jihadi mode.
Further evidence of the power slipping away from Hamas continue to be fights against Gazan clans and opposition groups. Also, Hamas is shooting at civilians going to the US/Israeli aid distribution centers. The leverage of the hostages is declined as well.
All this to say, I don’t expect any breakthrough.
Situation on other fronts is stable. Lebanon placing increasing pressure on Hezbollah. Syria continues in official talks with Israel. Houthis largely quiet. Iran is suppressed and still hostile and dangerous.
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Threat Level reduced to WATCH from WARNING due to the ceasefire holding and no evidence of any impending action by either side, apart from Israeli targeted drone strikes.
***
France said on Thursday it may reimpose sanctions on Iran if two of its nationals, detained for more than three years, are not released following new charges of espionage. Iranian authorities this week confirmed that Cécile Kohler and Jacques Paris have been indicted for spying for Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, conspiracy to overthrow the regime, and “corruption on earth”—a capital offense under Iranian law. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the charges were “totally unjustified and baseless” if confirmed, and repeated France’s demand for their immediate release.
***
The Pentagon said Wednesday evening that, according to its assessment, the Israeli and American strikes in Iran have set back the Iranian nuclear program by one year to two years. Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell emphasized that the department’s position regarding the results of the U.S. strikes on the nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan remains unchanged—that those facilities were destroyed.
In a briefing to reporters during which Parnell shared the assessment he added: “It’s likely closer to two years.”
https://www.ynetnews.com/article/rkd8mmxbgl
***
OBSERVATIONS - There is no large scale drawdown of US forces in the region. Vinson and Nimitz CSGs still operational in the Oman Gulf. B52s and support aircraft still in Diego Garcia and other fighters still in regional bases.
Arguments over the extent of damage to the Iranian nuclear bomb program will continue for months. The alleged resumption of the program within 2 years may well be muted by the size of such a program. Undoubtedly they have lost a ton of essential equipment, centrifuges etc that will need to be replaced/repaired before movement towards a nuclear warhead can proceed. This even includes the currently unallocated stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. With hundreds of centrifuges, the purification to 90% could have taken weeks. Those centrifuges are essentially gone. So any purification to those weapons levels will be on a very small scale.
Intel estimates are generally biased towards worst case scenarios, and the current is likely carrying such bias. Buried in it, though, is the deep state worming in questions over the effectiveness of the Israeli and US strikes.
Year?
We are now closer to 2050 than 2000!
Thanks Godzilla
Jail them with high bail.
They keep going because they're only being cleared out, not removed from circulation.
The fed leos at the facility are arresting a little at a time and they are facing federal charges not local revolving door
Good!
Biden was so much worse than Carter - might be the worst President we've ever had.
Keep the spirit of the 4th going on every day.
Globalism / Great Reset –
An international body which thinks it can dictate climate policy and free speech policy to the United States.
“Countries must protect human right to a stable climate”, court rules
Costa Rica-based inter-American court of human rights says states have obligation to respond to climate change
Isabella Kaminski Fri 4 Jul 2025 07.53 AEST
There is a human right to a stable climate and states have a duty to protect it, a top court has ruled.
…
In the strongly worded and wide-ranging 300-page document setting out its perspective on the climate emergency and human rights, the court says states have legal obligations to protect people alive today and future generations from the impacts of climate breakdown. That includes taking “urgent and effective” actions to cut greenhouse gas emissions based on the best available science, to adapt, to cooperate internationally, and to guard against the threat of climate disinformation.
OBSERATION - In all honesty Ive never heard of these clowns until this article popped up. My reply would be “you and who’s army”. Probably another one of those areas DOGE could evaluate and find a defunding mechanism. This decree does show that the globalists are continuing their drum beat on climate change and information censorship.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New no king style protest for July 17th
These news findings are from a June 2-19 Gallup poll that shows a record-low 58% of U.S. adults are “Extremely/Very proud”, 41% “Extremely proud,” and 17% “Very proud” to be an American.
The drop in national pride has been led mainly by Democrats, with only 36% now saying they are extremely or very proud to be American, down from 62% a year ago. Pride among independents has also fallen to a new low of 53%, a seven-point decline from last year. In contrast, Republicans’ national pride has increased, with 92% expressing strong pride last month.
The broader picture of the Democratic Party’s mindset can be summed up by leftist political commentator Elie Mystal, who openly despises America and, earlier this week, called for the international community to sanction the country. It’s worth noting that Mystal has deep connections to the Democratic Party’s NGO network… go figure.
Elie Mystal: “Our country is THE bad guy on the world stage. The world needs to stand against America. Sanction us.” pic.twitter.com/3OjPx52Ryn
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 2, 2025
While other Democrats are openly promoting communism, and this is an actual quote: “The end goal is seizing the means of production.”
OBSERVATION - This split has been growing significantly over the years. Is it currently serving as a foundation for the left’s push against America and its support of violence to gain its objectives. As sides are being drawn up, take note of just what ‘america’ means to them.
Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Jun 14, 2025
- Iran could activate cells in the US.
- July 4, a very symbolic day for the US could trigger terror attacks on celebrants by Iranian supporting elements.
Weekend isn’t over yet, maintain situational awareness
POLITICAL FRONT –
Just one day after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries wrapped up his self-indulgent “magic minute” marathon, the truth is starting to surface: Even many Democrats weren’t impressed. His hours-long fauxibuster—meant to stall the inevitable passage of the GOP’s One Big, Beautiful Bill—ended up accomplishing absolutely nothing for the Democrats’ cause. The only minds that were changed were Republicans who flipped from “no” to “yes.”
OBSERVATION - The term “dollar store 0bama” fits him well. The only good thing about him is that he is so far less effective than Johnson in the House.
Illegal Immigration –
Reports that Alligator Alcatraz is already full.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-80 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Overnight, Russia launched a massive drone attack using 322 Shahed-type attack UAVs and decoy drones. 292 drones were reportedly neutralized.
Russian losses per 05/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1050 men
+2 tanks
+7 AFVs
+56 artillery
Russian forces conducted the largest combined drone and missile strike against Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion on the night of July 3 to 4, primarily targeting Kyiv City. Russian forces have conducted 10 of the largest strikes in the war since January 2025.
Ukrainian forces struck the Borisoglebsk airfield near Voronezh, home to Su-34, Su-35S, and Su-30SM jets. According to the General Staff, a guided bomb (KAB) depot, a combat trainer aircraft, and possibly several other jets were destroyed. Damage is being assessed.
Ukrainian attack drones successfully penetrated roughly 1000 km of Russian airspace this morning to hit multiple targets in the city of Cheboksary.
Summary —
As I noted in my previous, I expected another big attack and so it happened. The drone wars are showing two differing tactics. On the Russian side, the ability to throw massive numbers of drones and missiles on generally civilian targets. Ukraine OTOH has shown the ability to strike factories, airfields, petroleum infrastructure, etc with fewer drones.
Action on the ground continues in a general stalemate. Russian sustaining a roughly 1000 casualties per day / 30K per month. So far, the vaunted Russian offensive isn’t happening, and if it is certainly isn’t panning out for Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte expressed hope for U.S. “flexibility” on resuming arms supplies to Ukraine after Washington unexpectedly paused some deliveries due to concerns over low stockpiles.
“The U.S. must ensure its reserves meet its defense needs,” Rutte said Friday at NATO’s military HQ in Mons. “But we also hope for flexibility, Ukraine must be able to move forward.”
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas claims to have tentatively accepted the ceasefire plan, subject to their demands.
- IDF grows occupation of Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
IDF claims control of 65% of Gaza. The military reportedly eliminated over 100 terrorists including senior Hamas commanders, while the Israeli Air Force hit 100 terror targets in 24 hours to support ongoing ground operations
Among those killed were Hakham Issa, head of Hamas’ Combat Support Staff; Mohammed al-Sheikh, a commander in the Khan Yunis Brigade’s Operations Department; Issa Abbas, a company commander in the Zeitoun Battalion; and Mohammed Jarasha, a company commander in the Sabra Battalion.
***
Hamas says it gave the mediators a response that “can be characterized as positive” on the Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal proposal and stresses it is ready to start negotiations on implementing the agreement
A senior Palestinian official told the BBC that Hamas had requested several changes, including a halt to a US-backed aid system and a US guarantee that the war would not resume if talks on ending the war failed.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis fired a missile that fell apart in transit.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Well, back to the same old soap opera with Hamas and Iran ‘negotiating’ for a ceasefire. Notice that in both cases, the demand is that Israel be prevented from resuming attacks EVEN IF Hamas/Iran bail on their part of the agreement. The threat of Israel resuming combat is a BIG stick and fear of both parties (and in the case of Iran, the US using its big sticks again).
In the specific case of Hamas, its demand to allow only UN delivered food and a halt to a US-backed aid system is all about power and funding its war efforts. I’ve noted many times, Hamas routinely hijacks aid truck, unloads them in their storehouses and then sells it back to the Gazans at a marked up price - all to keep their fighters funded as well as using it as a tool to keep the population subjugated to their rule. Freely handed out US aid undercuts their scheme.
I really don’t see any movement on this unless Trump puts excessive pressure on Netanyahu Monday to accept the conditions - including Hamas demands. Essentially a unilateral ceasefire. Israel gains nothing from the current deal under existing conditions. Hamas stands to gain space to regroup, rearm and re booby trap Gaza.
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Iran’s nuclear program has been “permanently” set back by recent US airstrikes, though Tehran could attempt to restart enrichment at another site, US President Donald Trump said on Friday aboard Air Force One. Trump added that Iran has not agreed to allow international inspections or to halt its uranium enrichment, and said he plans to discuss the issue with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during a meeting at the White House on Monday.
https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1941377085127139557
***
According to Axios, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff is planning to meet next week in Oslo, Norway with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, in order to restart nuclear talks between the two countries following last month’s strikes by the U.S. Air Force and Navy against three nuclear sites in Iran. A key issue in any future talks will be Iran’s stockpile of highly-enriched near-weapons-grade uranium, which includes at least 400 kilograms enriched to 60%.
Iran for its part continues to maintain the right to highly enrich uranium and enhance its missile forces. Requires binding promise of no retaliatory attacks if Iran chooses to ignore/violate any agreement.
OVERALL OBSERVATION - Like with Hamas, Iran has not adjusted its bargaining positions. It still holds to unlimited uranium enrichment and ballistic missile programs. Both of which collapsed talks that ended up in the 12 day war.
Though not specifically mentioned above, Israel’s domination of the airspace over Iran will permit it to continue to have near real time intelligence from spy drones as well as pinpoint targeting of individuals with drone launched missiles. Mossad continues to operate on the ground providing additional intel and targeting as before.
Given the US’ sustained offensive capabilities in the region, I expect Iran to behave itself militarily in the near term.
Lebanon -
The IDF continued to strike Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
***
Reuters: Hezbollah is considering scaling back its military role after the war with Israel. Sources say it may hand over parts of its missile and drone arsenal if Israel withdraws from the south and stops airstrikes. It still plans to keep light weapons and anti-tank missiles.
OBSERVATION - There is a political battle in Lebanon between he civil govt and the Hezbollah ‘govt’. Currently, the civil govt has the upper hand - should they decide to use it. There is inherent weakness by stating that they will hand over “parts” of its missile / drone force, as well as remaining armed with ‘light’ arms.
Misc of Note –
Disastrous flooding in Central Texas. Hard to predict such events where the river level rises over 20 feet in less than an hour. Goes back to you doing your due diligence on natural hazards and potential extreme events. Haven’t seen the follow-up, but this flood did likely far exceed a 100 year event - the common marker for emergency management.
The extremely rapid rise in water levels also made evacuation nearly impossible to any but the few who got out right when the rains hit.
Reflects the need to always be ready. Especially with hurricane season developing and the threat of associated flooding rears it head. Get your act together, make your plans, gather your necessary preps and be ready to get out of dodge ahead of the sheep, with alternative evacuation routes mapped and physically reconned.
Thanks Godzilla
A fun 'PR' blitz - Public Service Ads that open with a picture of a person burning the American flag - and the message? "If YOU hate America THIS much AND want to live in a Marxist country or in Gaza - AND are willing to give up American citizenship - we will reimburse your plane ticket costs and send YOU an additional $1,000 to the commie county of your choice. Go for it - it's a win for everyone...
I like it
Heads up again. Summer travels will have me not posting from 10-14 July
CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WARNING - up dated June 10, 2025
- New “no king” style protest for July 17th
LA rioters attacked DHS, CBP, and Marines at an ICE facility. This is the most violent action in several weeks.
RELATED -
The Department of Homeland Security is closely monitoring a series of attacks near Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) facilities that happened in Texas and Oregon.
“We are closely monitoring the attacks on DHS detention facilities in Prairieland, TX, and Portland, OR, and are coordinating with the USAOs and our law enforcement partners. The Department has zero tolerance for assaults on federal officers or property and will bring the full weight of the law against those responsible,” U.S. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche posted on X.
Late Friday night a shooting occurred near the Prairieland Detention Center in Alvarado Texas. One officer was injured, and multiple armed suspects are in custody according to authorities. The injured officer was flown from the scene to a Fort Worth hospital, was treated and later released, according to the Alvarado Police Department.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/dhs-ice-immigration/2025/07/05/id/1217711/
MORE -
Portland — Federal police officers have been standing their ground against Antifa, engaging in subtle trolling.
On Thursday night, a vehicle driven by an officer blasted the song “See you later alligator” in reference to Alligator Alcatraz as it left the ICE office.
https://x.com/katiedaviscourt/status/1941681756798943360?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFc
OBSERVATIONS - Antifa based protestors are reaching to pull out the violence tactic to counter the loss of numbers in their protests. These violent attacks were likely more aligned with the 4th of July to gain publicity and not so much as a trend at this stage. Antifa et al will be evaluating the success / failures of these attacks for future operations.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Following his latest tiff with Trump, Musk announced the creation of the “American Party”.
OBSERVATION - I’m underwhelmed at the prospect.
Illegal Immigration –
The Army has posted thousands of the warnings in New Mexico and western Texas, declaring a “restricted area by authority of the commander.” It’s part of a major shift that has thrust the military into border enforcement with Mexico like never before. The move places long stretches of the border under the supervision of nearby military bases, empowering U.S. troops to detain people who enter the country illegally.
OBSERVATION - Biden regime complained that it needed legislation to control the border. Trump has proven them wrong many times over.
China -
“After all, this is the first time that Xi won’t attend a BRICS Summit in any capacity, not even remotely. The resultant optics fuel Western media speculation about China’s commitment to the group, which can manipulate some of the global public’s views regardless of its veracity. This sequence of events – China’s Indian rival (which is still friendly with the US in spite of the US’ latest efforts to subordinate it) visiting Brazil, Xi declining to attend the BRICS Summit, and Western media’s spin – aligns with US interests.”
“Accordingly, Xi’s absence from the latest BRICS Summit (regardless of the real reason[s] behind it) might stimulate US-Brazilian ties and comparatively reduce China’s role in Brazil’s balancing act if India’s role therein soon becomes more significant, which can altogether be considered a setback for China. To be sure, it’s not a major one and it could potentially be reversed through skillful Chinese diplomacy, but it’s still difficult for any honest observer to describe this outcome as meaningless, let alone a success.”
https://korybko.substack.com/p/analyzing-xis-absence-from-the-latest
OBSERVATION - Some key thoughts on Xi’s absence from the upcoming BRICS meeting. Xi is also facing severe economic problems in China a well, and may fear an overthrow while he is out of country.
Japan –
Japan will export used navy destroyers to the Philippines to strengthen its deterrence against China’s maritime expansion, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Sunday, as the two U.S. allies increase cooperation to counter Beijing.
The export plan involves six Abukuma-class destroyer escorts in service with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force for more than three decades, the Japanese daily said, citing multiple unnamed government sources.
The Philippine Navy does not have destroyers, only frigates and corvettes, which are typically smaller and lighter armed.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/japan-philippines-china/2025/07/06/id/1217757/
OBSERVATION - Both Philippines and Japan are feeling the pressure of China’s incursions into internationally recognized island regions belonging to those countries. This is forcing an arms race in the region that may spiral into an actual shooting incident. Based upon current treaties and agreements, the US could be drawn into such a conflict.
Phillipines –
See Japan above.
Russia -
Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
*****
Personnel Issues –
According to the Main Directorate of Intelligence for the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine, Russia is currently attempting to draw Laos and other “partner nations” into their war against Ukraine, alongside North Korea who has already deployed up to 12,000 soldiers to Russia’s western border with Ukraine. As part of the ongoing effort, the Kremlin is said to be organizing the initial deployment of roughly 50 combat engineers with the Lao People’s Armed Forces (LPAF) to the Kursk Oblast of Western Russia, under the guise of a “humanitarian mission” in support of the Russian Armed Forces. Additionally, the Main Directorate of Intelligence reports that Laos is providing free assistance to Russia by conducting rehabilitation programs for wounded servicemen who participated in combat operations against Ukraine.
OBSERVATION - Russia continues to reach out to find more men and resources to assist in their war efforts. Laotian forces will free up Russian troops for front line work.
Logistics –
Russia looking to build ammo plants in Venezuela to support its war efforts.
Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025
WEATHER FORECAST – Temps in the 60-90 range, mostly sunny.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On the night of July 6, Russia launched 4 S-300 missiles and 157 Shahed-type drones and decoys from Russia and occupied Crimea. Ukraine neutralized 117 drones—98 shot down, 19 suppressed by EW.
Russian losses per 06/07/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff
+1180 men
+2 tanks
+3 AFVs
+39 artillery
+2 MLRS
+1 AD system
+1 aircraft
Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Sobolivka village in Kharkiv region and Piddubne village in Donetsk region of Ukraine
Ukraine hit the 4th Russian factory in as many days and is now in flames.
In Nizhnekamsk, one of the largest manufacturers of synthetic rubbers and plastics in Russia is burning, 1200km from Ukraine.
Summary —
Russian drone tactics and numbers continue to see successful hits, even at lower numbers.
Fighting on the ground continues to be at a near stalemate. Development of the (now) Summer offensive by Russia continues to show lack of organization and coordination.
No evidence of any major potential breakouts by Russia anywhere along the front. Only major threats are the pulsed drone/missile attacks Russia has launched over the recent months.
ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025
Key overnight developments -
- Israeli rejects Hamas demands, sends negotiation team to Qatar anyway.
- Intense IAF strikes throughout Gaza overnight.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he was sending a team to Qatar Sunday for talks on a truce and hostage release in Gaza, after Hamas said it was ready to start negotiations “immediately”
Netanyahu’s office clarifies: The changes Hamas seeks to make to the Qatari proposal were conveyed to us last night and are unacceptable to Israel. The negotiation team will nonetheless depart for talks in Qatar.
——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————
The Israeli Air Force attacked approximately 100 terror targets across the Gaza Strip over the past 24 hours, including rocket launchers and weapons storage facilities, the military said Friday afternoon.
***
Two American employees of the aid distribution organization backed by Israel and the US - the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) - were wounded in what it said was a grenade attack at its site in the Khan Younis area.
——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-
Hebron’s sheikhs propose to leave the Palestinian Authority and join the Abraham Accords
“The Oslo accord only brought us death”, they write
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthis fired a missile that was intercepted.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The EU will propose five measures against Israel on Wednesday, including trade limits and a possible arms embargo, over alleged Gaza-related human rights breaches.
——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-
Monday’s meeting between Trump and Netanyahu will be critical in regards to the prosecution of the Gaza conflict.
While Hamas struggles to get relief from the relentless pounding by Israel, so called ‘negotiations’ will be conducted in Hamas friendly Qatar. Witkoff’s plan and Hamas counter proposal have all played out in previous attempts at a hostage release / ceasefire. Certain to be a topic Monday between Trump and Netanyahu, it is questionable if Trump will try to force Israel into acceptance of any of Hamas’ demands. Of course, in his pursuit to be known as the peace president, such a move has potential.
IMHO Trump should continue to allow Israel a free hand in dealing with Hamas in Gaza.
Absent that, Hamas is continuing to lose ground and forces. It takes time to move the civilian population to designated, Israeli controlled safe areas, so Israel is forced to a slower, methodical rate of advance.
Announcement by Hebron’s sheikhs is more evidence that radial islamic elements - in this case the PA - are losing control of significant fractions of their arab alliance. I think a lot of this can be credited to Israeli support of the Druids both in Israel and in Syria. Good PR and evidence of being honest brokers, versus the very corrupt PA and Hamas
Iran –
Threat Level - WATCH Jun 30, 2025
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday made his first public appearance since the 12-day war between Israel and Iran began, attending a mourning ceremony on the eve of Ashoura. Images suggest he is wearing body armor under his robes.
***
President Donald Trump said on Friday that Iran had not agreed to inspections of its nuclear program or to give up enriching uranium. He told reporters aboard Air Force One that he believed Tehran’s nuclear program had been set back permanently although Iran could restart it at a different location. Trump said he would discuss Iran with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visits the White House on Monday.
***
A group of inspectors from the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog has finally and formally departed Iran after the country decided to halt its cooperation with the agency, following last month’s surprise bombing raids by Israel and the United States. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed in statement shared on X on Friday that its personnel are returning to the agency’s headquarters in Vienna, Austria.
OBSERVATION - Iran is holding to the same conditions that resulted in being timed out and smacked by Israel and the US in the 12 day war. They seem to think that doubling down is the way to go and that the US and Israel has no further desire to engage in any more combat. At least for the Israeli part of their calculation - they are dangerously wrong.
A great deal of speculation that Iran will immediately proceed to build a bomb. A difficult prospect given that the supporting facilities are in rubble and it is questionable that it has any weapons grade uranium to use, let along get processed by any surviving centrifuges. This also hinges on the religious blessings to produce such a device - a blessing that has been the prime hinderance to the Iranian nuclear program to date.
Lebanon -
The Lebanese Army announced that it had received a new financial payment from the State of Qatar, aimed at supporting the military amid Lebanon’s ongoing crisis. The statement noted that the funds were delivered based on the directives of Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani but did not disclose the amount.
According to information obtained by MiddleEast 24, Qatari sources have privately urged Lebanese officials to “avoid pressuring” Hezbollah to hand over its weapons. The same sources hinted that continued financial support — including military aid and development projects — could be at risk if the Lebanese state pursues direct confrontation with the Iran-backed militia.
Instead, Doha reportedly insisted that the issue of Hezbollah’s weapons be addressed solely through long-term political dialogue, a position seen as favoring the status quo and potentially delaying any disarmament process.
(ME24)
OBSERVATION - Struggle between a stronger, Lebanese military and its Hezbollah rivals in Lebanon may soon reach a critical point. Evidence suggests that Lebanon has gotten better in interception money and munitions coming in country to support Hezbollah and the shocking humiliation and defeat of both Hezbollah and Iran’s control of the region is swaying the opinions of those who’ve been under Hezbollah’s thumb.
For the near term, Hezbollah’s threat to Israel has been reduced by orders of magnitude. Its missile forces devastated, its arms stockpiles in S Lebanon blown up and military leadership decapitated. Absent the direct supply of materials from Iran, due to hostile new Syrian govt, rebuilding the force will be difficult at best.
With reduced manning and arms, Hezbollah still poses a threat via smaller scale infiltration and terror attacks in N Israel. This threat should grow less provided the Lebanese army takes the initiative and moves Hezbollah completely out of the region, as per current agreements.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.