Threat Matrix 2025

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - ADVISORY - up dated Jan 19, 2025
May Day - May 1st

The May Day protest window starts tomorrow. I expect protests to reach their crest by Sat/Sunday. The initial protests, particularly in Antifa safe zones, may essentially be ‘preparation of the battlefield’ kinds of operations, to get the local nut jobs worked up for the larger riots. May Day is typically associated with violent protests to begin with. Still monitoring for more specifics and potential intensities. See previous posting on that.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

Tariffs come into full play today, and global markets are shuddering over potential consequences. For China, impacts may come from a surprising source. As noted perviously, China has cancelled a lot of pork deliveries. This has the consequence of hitting one of the largest meat processors in the US - one held by Chinese companies/interests.

POLITICAL FRONT –

The FBI has begun administering polygraph tests to employees to identify the source of leaks to media at the direction of Director Kash Patel.

OBSERVATION - Long in coming, but remember, Patel (as many other cabinet members) have a huge pile of globalist trash they have to eliminate and then surround themselves with loyal Americans - THIS TAKES TIME.
I expect polygraphs to move thru other departments, such as Defense and Homeland Security.

***
With all the squalling about the arrest of the Wisconsin judge being a political witch hunt, the hammer comes down on the lefts narrative. Wisconsin Supreme Court suspended Hannah Dugan, the Milwaukee judge accused of helping a man evade immigration authorities.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump was in top form at a rally celebrating his first 100 days of this term.

China -

China has waived the 125% tariff on ethane imports from the United States imposed earlier this month, two sources with knowledge of the matter said on Tuesday.

OBSERVATION - The great tariff wall is cracking?

***
USTreasury today sanctions an Iran regime missile procurement network tied to China supplying sodium perchlorate

OBSERVATION - Posting here rather than Iran because I noted in a previous post the fact that China was supplying rocket fuel to Iran would likely initiate sanctions. Now these sanctions are hitting Chinese companies.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Kremlin’s spokesperson says Russia will achieve “initial goals of military operation” through military means, though preferably to do it via diplomatic means

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 50 Russian drones overnight. Drone strikes reported in four districts of Kharkiv: Kyivskyi, Saltivskyi, Shevchenkivskyi, and Slobidskyi. Explosions were reported in Dnipro city. Over a dozen Shahed-type drones are approaching the area

Russian losses per 30/04/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1100 men
+1 tank
+1 AFVs
+11 artillery
+1 MLRS

Summary —

No significant changes in Russian Shahed attacks and ground activity.

International politics being wielded by putin continues to bluff and consternate Europe’s support to Ukraine.

Europe / NATO General –

Massive European power outage blamed on solar plant “breakdowns”

The UK was hit by unusual power activity hours in the hours before the massive blackout in Spain.
Control room staff at the National Energy System Operator saw unusual activity on Sunday morning with unexpected power frequency shift.
An outage was recorded at 2am at Keadby 2 gas-fired power plant followed by an unexplained failure of the Viking Link interconnector between the UK and Denmark.
At around 6pm, the frequency shifted unexpectedly again, with the cause still being unknown

OBSERVATION - Solar and wind are unreliable, and Spain in particular took great joy in destroying their coal plants to force the switch to ‘green’ power. Great Britain is on the same transjectory, and yes, portions of the US (Kalifornia and Texas in particular) on doing the same. We are entering an era of electricity shortages when we should have great surpluses.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT

***
Military movements and actions -

Overnight, fighting broke out between Pakistani and Indian forces in the Pargwal-Akhnoor sector of Jammu & Kashmir.
This is crucial because this new battleground is not located along the Line of Control, but rather on the internationally-recognised border between Pakistan and India.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given the Indian military “operational freedom” to respond to the Pahalgam terrorist attack.
PM Modi, during a high level meeting today, said that the Indian Armed Forces have ‘complete operational freedom’ to decide on the mode, targets, and timing of the response.

According to the Pakistani minister of information, Pakistani officials have assessed that India will conduct a “military strike within the next 24 to 36 hours.”

While no specific information and/or intelligence was provided in the statement, Indian decision-makers have reportedly given the Indian armed forces the option to decide on the nature of a response to the Pahalgam attack that sparked this most recent spat between the two nuclear armed powers. Both sides have surged military equipment to border areas in the past week as reports of tit-for-tat clashes between border forces continue.

Pakistani minister chose the term “military strike” and this could allude to the limited nature of potential Indian military actions, as the minister does not seem to be warning about a significant Indian ground operation—something many people have feared due to the buildup by both nations in the past week.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1917329512955515003?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

India TV reports that Pakistan has mobilized its 12th, 19th, and 23rd Infantry Divisions, placing them in forward positions near Jammu and Kashmir. These movements are part of a broader, significant increase in troop deployments along the border with India, reportedly in anticipation of a potential Indian strike.

Reports of heavy armed clashes between Pakistani and Indian forces across the Line of Control (LoC) in the disputed Kashmir region.

Political actions -

In response to the terror attack in Kashmir, India began to demolish “illegal mosques”

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
We’ll soon see if the Pakistani estimation of when India will strike are correct. We are nearing the 24 hours after the announcement. Time plus deployments to me suggest that the Indian response will be by this weekend.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi giving the military ‘operational freedom’ also indicates that India’s response in imminent. The largest question is how extensive will this response be? Low end could consist of air and ground incursions targeting terrorist bases in the Pakistani Kashmir. This is reflected by the Pakistani official indicating a “strike” instead of an invasion.

Both sides appear configured in readiness to fight a much larger war that would extend outside of the Kashmir region. Most still have Pakistan as the significant underdog in such a much larger conflict, a scenario that could see Pakistan use of nuclear weapons.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Massive wildfires engulfing parts of Israel.

- Reserve call ups in progress

- Israel warns Syria to back off from the Druze community.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

IDF notifies thousands of reservists for upcoming call-up as Israel plans to intensify Gaza operations; reserves to replace northern brigades being moved to Gaza, Kan News reports.

Massive wildfires driven by exceptionally strong winds have battered Israel today, sparking significant evacuations in the Jerusalem region. No word yet on causes, but probably is human caused - possibly even terrorist arson.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF and artillery have hit Hamas targets throughout the territory

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Overnight, Jolani-backed Islamists attempted to break through Druze cities on the outskirts of Damascus, claiming a Druze member insulted prophet Muhammad.

The head of the Druze community in the land of Sheikh Mofaq Tarif: “Calls on Israel to act immediately to prevent mass massacres in the Druze communities around Damascus”

Syrian government spokesman Muhammad al-Faisal released footage showing regime security reinforcements en route to the town of Sahnaya, in the Damascus suburbs, to restore order.

Syrian reported an Israeli drone attack in the Jarmana area (Druze area) in eastern Damascus. Reports of a second IDF attack in the town of Sakhaniya in the suburbs of Damascus. Report of casualties among the Syrian regime’s security forces

Netanyahu and Katz issue a statement: The army carried out a warning operation and attacked an extremist group that was preparing to attack the Druze in Sahnaya, Syria.
We sent a message to the Syrian regime that Israel expects it to act to prevent harm to the Druze.

Netanyahu:
“Israel will not allow attacks against the Druze community in Syria, out of deep commitment to our Druze brothers in Israel, who share strong historical and familial ties with their Druze brethren in Syria.”

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The U.K. Ministry of Defense has announced that British Forces participated in a joint operation Tuesday alongside U.S. Forces, against a military target of the Iranian-backed Houthi terrorist group in Western Yemen. The operation, which involved Royal Air Force Typhoon FGR4 Multirole Fighters supported by Voyager Aerial-Refueling Tankers from RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, reportedly targeted a cluster of buildings, used by the Houthis to manufacture drones of the type used to attack ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, using several Paveway IV Laser-Guided 500lb Bombs.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The situation in S Syria for now seems to be settling down as Jolani govt forces are entering the region to stop radical militias attempt to attack the Druze community. The govt forces are not in any shape to go toe to toe with Israel, nor do they want the Gaza treatment on Damascus. The actions by these militant Jolani supporting militias go to justify Israel’s occupation in Syria as they could become another Hamas - equivalent force that would involve a more significant operation in the future.

The Druze are not total weaklings, and have bloodied these militias pretty well. However, they are outnumbered and the islamists supporting Jolani have AQ/ ISIS roots.

Israel is moving towards a massive invasion into remaining areas of Gaza. It will take at least a couple of weeks for these reserves to fall in on their equipment, assemble and get their plans together. Means the clock is ticking down for Hamas in Gaza.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.

***
The New York Times quotes Iranian officials as saying it will take at least 20 days to complete firefighting operations at the port of Bandar Abbas.

Syria -

Renewed clashes on the Damascus-Suwayda road from the direction of Matla in the Damascus countryside, as Bedouin tribes continue to prevent the Druze convoy that left Suwayda from advancing towards Damascus.

OBSERVATION - This is associated with Jolani-supporting jihadi militias trying to move into Druze territory.

The May Day weekend is here, things could locally get spicy.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WATCH - up dated May 1, 2025
May Day - May 1st

(FO) As of this morning, left wing organizers have scheduled over 1,000 protests and demonstrations that run from today – May Day – through Sunday.
Organizers are reiterating a “commitment to nonviolence,” which will most likely be the norm for most of the May Day demonstrations. Protestors will rally against deportations and the broader Trump agenda, while rallying in support of workers, Palestine, and socialism.

***
A radical leftist group called May Day Movement USA is calling for a takeover of the National Mall in Washington, D.C. on May 1st until President Trump is deposed. The group is organizing the insurrection on @bluesky and is using @PayPal to solicit funds.

RELATED -
Far-left extremists are recruiting militants for an “anarchist contingent” at the Seattle May Day direct action at Cal Anderson Park—at the heart of where the 2020 Antifa CHAZ autonomous zone was. Seattle’s May Day protests regularly turn violent, especially in the evening. The flyers mandate masks and prohibit “yellow vests,” a term for citizen peacekeepers who anarchists believe dissuade violent criminal acts like vandalism and arson.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1917679459324330364?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Threat level elevated to WATCH, specifically for those places heavily controlled by Antifa and affiliated elements. Protests are expected to start today and likely crescendo towards the weekend. Maximum situational awareness for those in/around blue urban area and Antifa dominated regions.

***
Overnight, four pro-hamas students were tackled and arrested at Rutgers University after trying to storm a building and attacking police officers.
Pro Hamas / anti-Israeli protests/actions likely to be part of the May Day celebrations by the left.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

Yesterday’s terror triggered wildfires in Israel should be considered as a warning to the US as well if fire conditions become bad as some forecast in parts of the US.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025, as businesses rushed to stock up on imports ahead of tariffs.
The Commerce Department said U.S. gross domestic product—the value of all goods and services produced across the economy—fell at a seasonally and inflation adjusted 0.3% annual rate in the first quarter. That was the steepest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

“The headline decline overstates weakness because a lot of that was tariff-induced pull-forward,” said Shannon Grein, an economist at Wells Fargo. “Overall, I think that it was a relatively solid underlying report when it comes to demand.”

The reading fell short of the 0.4% growth that economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected.
Stocks fell sharply in early trading but ended up by days end.

https://www.wsj.com/economy/us-gdp-q1-2025-1f82f689

OBSERVATION - Other economists indicate the fundamentals are stronger than the GDP indicates and that what is being seen is a transitory effect from bidenomics to Trump’s plan. Next three months will be key.

***
(FO) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the “aperture” of uncertainty over tariffs will narrow as the Trump administration finalizes trade deals, and “everyone should take a deep breath.”
U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the Trump administration is nearing the announcement of a first tranche of trade deals in the coming weeks.

POLITICAL FRONT –

FBI agents who were photographed kneeling during a George Floyd protest have been dismissed from their posts - CNN

***
Meet Congressman Shri Thanedar — the man leading efforts to impeach President Trump.

In 2010, Thanedar owned an animal testing lab where more than 170 beagles and monkeys were left behind after his company filed for bankruptcy. The animals, previously used for laboratory experiments, were abandoned and locked inside the facility without food, water, or care. Their survival depended on the bravery of former lab workers who broke into the building to provide food and water, along with rescue groups who found homes and sanctuaries for the animals. Despite the abandonment, Thanedar portrayed himself as an animal lover and shifted blame onto the bank that had foreclosed on the property.

OBSERVATION - FAFO

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Senior officials in the Trump Administration are reportedly growing increasing concerned that White House Special Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, is incapable of dealing with Iran, Hamas or Russia, according to the New York Post. “Nice guy, but a bumbling **** idiot,” a member of Trump’s First Administration said of Witkoff, “He should not be doing this alone.”

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1917778844003586546?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Some words from the WH that Witkoff still has some support from the President, but clearly he is on wobbly ground. WitKoff has been underwhelming to say the least, and the results so far with Russia and Iran leave a lot to be desired.

TRUMP Watch –

Trump continued to rip CBS / 60 minutes over their heavily doctored interview with Harris

Illegal Immigration –

President Trump hints at suspending the Writ of Habeas Corpus to conduct mass deportations

OBSERVATION - This is a potentially harsh pushback to the judicial activism / insurrection the administration has been facing from these rogue judges (example below). You can bet 100% there will be a massive attempt at a legal dogpile on Trump should he suspend this. May also force the USSC / Roberts to get off their duffs and put these lower courts back into their place to preserve the integrity of the judiciary.

***
A California judge on Tuesday demanded Border Patrol agents allow people they think are living in the U.S. illegally to stay in the country, unless authorities have a warrant or reason to believe the person may flee before they can get a warrant.

U.S. District Judge Jennifer L. Thurston ruled on Tuesday that Customs and Border Protection (CBP) agents in the Eastern District of California cannot stop illegal immigrants without reasonable suspicion, or deport them via “voluntary departure,” unless that person is explained their rights and agrees to leave, according to a report from The Associated Press.

The decision comes after dozens of people were arrested in January during Border Patrol’s “Operation Return to Sender.”

OBSERVATION - Law specifically states that ICE / CBP does not need a warrant for the arrest of an illegal. Should be a slam dunk at even the 9th circuit, but another example of the judicial insurrection plaguing the country.

***
The Department of Justice (DOJ) filed the first “penalty for violation of security regulations” charges this week against 28 illegal aliens who crossed the border into the new national defense zones. The new charge increases the possible penalty for illegal entry to one year in jail and a $100,000 fine.

China -

China’s factory activity fell more than expected in April, dropping into contraction territory:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/chinas-factory-activity-drops-to-a-near-two-year-low-in-april-as-trade-tariffs-bite.html

OBSERVATION - China cannot afford to have what little manufacturing that has struggled post wuhan to flounder much further.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Russia preps for their annual massive parade celebrating their ‘victory’ in WW2.

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The US and Ukraine reached a deal over access to Ukraine’s natural resources Wednesday. Details still coming out. One thing is the resumption of military arms purchases by Ukraine

Russian forces launched a massive air attack against Ukraine, involving 5 Iskander-M ballistic missiles from Crimea and 170 drones, including strike UAVs and decoy drones. Ukraine confirmed the downing of 74 Shahed-type and other strike drones. Additionally, 68 decoy drones were neutralized without consequences. Odessa suffered from impacts.

Russian losses per 01/05/25 reported by Ukraine’s General Staff.

+1230 men
+3 tanks
+11 AFVs
+45 artillery
+1 MLRS
+2 AD systems

Summary —

The effects of the minerals agreement with Ukraine are yet to be seen. One key aspect is US claims on mineral deposits associated with the agreement in territories Russia wants annexed. Russia may not care about an agreement with what they consider to be an illegitimate govt, but it cannot totally ignore the US claims now. This could start the leveraging of other economic measures against Russia.

On the front, moderately heavy fighting continues, with little territorial changes. Rumors from Russia milbloggers suggest low morale is impeding the desired Russian spring offensive from getting off the ground more aggressively, even with improving weather. Russian losses have stabilized in the 1000 - 1200 per day range, down from the 1800 range last month.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT

***
Military movements and actions -

India has issued a NOTAM, blocking its airspace to all Pakistan-registered, operated, or leased aircraft, including airlines and military flights.

India reportedly has rapidly deployed high-frequency jamming systems to disrupt Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, including GPS, GLONASS, and Beidou, with aims to degrade Pakistan’s situational awareness, navigation, and precision-guided munitions capability

Several Pakistani posts on the International Border are rumored to have been left vacant and Pakistani Rangers have even removed their national flags from these positions.

Political actions -

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio held calls with his Indian counterpart and the Pakistani prime minister today. Secretary Rubio urged both sides to deescalate and asked Pakistan’s leader to aid in the investigation of the recent terror attack in the Indian-administered Kashmir region. Rubio also pressed Pakistan to reestablish direct contact with Indian decision-makers. However, just yesterday, it was reported that the Islamabad–New Delhi hotline was used by Indian and Pakistani decision-makers, and it is assumed that the hotline remains open as of now.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1917784921726410869?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
OK, where’s the picture of the guy saying “Well, we’re waiting”? Apart from Rubio’s announced contacts, there have been little in the way of efforts to mediate the dispute. IMHO, both sides have had enough time to position their major forces along the border to effect what ever military option they desire to initiate. It still looks like the high probability of action by this weekend short of something happening to put the breaks on the whole situation.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Arson by hamas supporters believed to be the major cause of the fires yesterday in Israel which were made worse by the high winds.

- Israel warns Syria to back off the Druze, as ‘peace talks’ attempt to take hold.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Some of the largest fires in Israel’s history were calmed yesterday as heavy rains crossed over the region.
Fire fighters continue to battle hot spots to prevent things from getting out of hand as winds are expected to pick up later today.

Police have arrested 18 people suspected of arson, one of whom was caught in the act. Mapping of fires yesterday show that all the fires were within Israel an none were in Samaria and Judea.
Hamxs urges Palestinians to ignite fires across Israel, posting on Telegram: “Burn whatever you can. Groves, forests, settler homes. Youth in Judea and Samaria, Jerusalem, and inside Israel, set their cars ablaze. Gaza awaits the vengeance of the free.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IDF force buildup continues as it readies for a much larger operation in Gaza. Airstrikes across the territory.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Channel 12 Israel, citing a security source, reported: The army assassinated a Hezbollah member in a raid on southern Lebanon.
Channel 12 Israel, citing a source, reported: The army assassinated another Hezbollah member in a second raid on southern Lebanon.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IDF strikes reported yesterday near Damascus, most probably in support of the Druze. Reports of additional strikes by the Israeli Air Force, targeting positions of the Syrian Army in and around the Druze-majority town of Sahnaya.

Following an assessment this morning by Israeli Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir, the IDF has been instructed to target military sites of the Syrian Government “if the violence against the Druze does not stop.”

Druze leader Abu Yahya Hassan al-Atrash gave Syrian Jolani forces six hours to lift the siege on Sahnaya, stating in a video that he supports any external effort to protect his people, aka Israeli strikes.

After the Syrian government launched an operation in the Druze-majority town of Sahnaya and subsequent Israeli airstrikes targeting government forces, a Syrian government official has reportedly announced the end to the operation. Additionally, at least one government fighter has reportedly been killed as a result of at least two strikes by the Israel Defense Force (IDF) in the area. Top Israeli decision-makers have already vowed further action against any entity that threatens the Druze population in Syria.

The Syrian government and Druze leaders reach a preliminary ceasefire agreement in Jaramana and Sahnaya, SANA reports. The agreement was reached in “a tense meeting” between the governors of Damascus Countryside, Suweidah, and Quneitra, and a number of Druze dignitaries.

As-Suwayda Governorate: Initial ceasefire agreement in Jaramana and Ashrafieh Sahnaya, and formation of a joint committee to stop the bloodshed.

Renewed clashes erupted around the town of Kanaker in the southern countryside of Sweida between armed factions, amid mortar shelling targeting the outskirts of the town

OBSERVATION - Once a terrorist, always a terrorist. The actions by these Jolani supporting militias are prime example why the world should keep a very close eye on them. This is just another attempt at a genocide of a moslem group that doesn’t submit to the AQ/ISIS base of Jolani’s support.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Remarkably, no wildfires in the region as compared to Israel. Hmmm

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

US continues to target the Houthis.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

The situation in S Syria remains on an edge. It appears that Israel’s warning air strikes on Jolani / Syrian forces gave them pause and helped drive negotiations to stop the fighting. Note again, these Syrian forces are not the new ‘regular’ army elements, but radical extremist militias with intense AQ/ISIS affiliations seeking to bring these ‘apostate’ moslem sects like the Druze under their control. Israel has good reason to be concerned over post Assad Syria.

Terror related arson is the likely reason for the fires yesterday, taking advantage of the equivalent of our Red Flag conditions. Hamas et al has a history of attempting to start fires as a weapon. Remember many years ago they sent incendiary balloons out, hoping to set off similar wildfires. Yesterday appears to have been a coordinated effort. Should serve as a warning to the US as well.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.

***

Iranian Crown Prince Pahlavi Reza says he’s prepared to lead Iran through a democratic transition once the Mullah regime is overthrown.

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, “You know very well what the U.S. Military is capable of — and you were warned. You will pay the CONSEQUENCE at the time and place of our choosing.”

OBSERVATION -
Some reported that Hegseth was one of a group that encouraged Trump to delay military action against Iran in favor of ‘negotiations’ . These war drums do not match the previous reporting. Or perhaps it does, especially if the president sees Witkoff’s efforts failing to produce the desired Iranian concessions - but in fact are strengthening the Iranian position. The US has a lot of firepower in position and will need to use it to back up tough words, else Iran and the rest of the arab world will believe the US is another paper tiger afraid of Iran. A dangerous position.

Syria -

Reuters, citing a source in the Turkish Foreign Ministry: Ankara has given Damascus the necessary space to address its concerns regarding Kurdish militants.

The May Day weekend is here, things could locally get spicy.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WATCH - up dated May 1, 2025
May Day - May 1st

Reports of day 1 of the May Day weekend were scattered. One from Atlanta indicated a wide ranging group of protestors, with Antifa elements notably willing to get violent, though I didn’t see any reports of larger scale violence. Being Friday, I expects protests to be larger and then the main events on Saturday and Sunday.

This weekends efforts are seen as an attempt to light the fire under the left for more violent events this summer.

Maintain heightened situational awareness if you live in metropolitan areas that have seen Antifa and other leftist protests in the past.

Terrorism - Threat Level - WATCH as of Apr 21, 2025
- Potential for soon direct conflict with Iran could activate cells in the US.

Though it has largely dropped off the radar, Tesla vandalism continues, though apparently are rates far lower than when the leftist campaign began.
Also a factor is that law enforcement and DA’s are pressing felony charges on these mostly misfits.

POLITICAL FRONT –

US President Donald Trump has issued an executive order calling for all federal funding to the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) and National Public Radio (NPR) to be blocked.

The order instructs the board of the Corporation of Public Broadcasting, who distributes funding to PBS and NPR stations, to “cease direct funding” to the “maximum extent allowed by law”.

It adds that the board should “decline to provide future funding” to the news organizations. The BBC has contacted NPR and PBS for comment.

***
President Donald Trump declared Friday that “We are going to be taking away Harvard’s Tax Exempt Status,” saying “It’s what they deserve!”

The announcement from Trump comes after Fox News reported last week that his administration asked the Internal Revenue Service to revoke Harvard University’s tax-exempt status.

The Ivy League school’s failure to address antisemitism on campus is grounds for losing its 501(c)(3) status, sources said at the time.

OBSERVATION - Harvard reportedly folded to a degree earlier in the week, but it was insufficient to hold off this next level of punishments.

INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Alberta has gained 60% of the signatures required to hold a referendum on exiting Canada
Saskatchewan plans to follow in Alberta’s footsteps.

OBSERVATION - These two provinces have been at odds with the liberal govt of Canada for a long time. Resource strong and largely conservative, they’ve suffered over the past decade of climate change and social law changes. In recent years, Canadian policy has attacked the oil and agriculture industry and woke policies the social lives of these residents.

TRUMP Watch –

VDH on recent ‘polls’. “These polls weren’t designed to measure public opinion—they were designed to shape it.”

***
Mike Waltz, President Donald Trump’s national security advisor, is set to leave his White House post amid continued fallout weeks after he accidentally invited a journalist into a chat between top national security officials discussing plans for Yemen airstrikes.

A source familiar with the situation on May 1 confirmed Waltz’ exit, as well as deputy national security advisor Alex Wong.
FOX reports that more departures could follow

Next, Trump nominated Waltz for the UN ambassadorship.

WHAT?

Illegal Immigration –

Once hard evidence was provided linking Garcia (Maryland man) to MS13, he has quickly dropped off the MSM’s radar screen and democrat leaders in the house telling leftist congress critters to knock off trips to El Salvador.

Media did a hard shift to the judges arrested for assisting / harboring illegals - until the supreme courts in those states stripped the judges of their positions and legal standing.

China -

Workers throughout China are flooding the streets in revolt as U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs slam the fragile Chinese export economy.
From the cramped streets of Sichuan in the southwest to the cold outskirts of Inner Mongolia in the northeast, furious workers are demanding back pay and protesting mass layoffs as factories shutter under pressure from Trump’s tariffs.

https://dailycallernewsfoundation.org/2025/05/01/china-erupts-riot-factories-trump-tariffs/

OBSERVATION - I am a little skeptical about these reports, though under modern China they are possible. Getting accurate news counter to the CCP narrative is difficult. That said, China’s economy is a capitolist/communist hybrid that could trigger such protests. China’s economy is already assessed at being in a very difficult position post wuhan and tariffs that have shut down trade with the US will have impacts that will slow down or even shut down factories.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

RUMINT-
Some think Zelensky will launch a drone attack on the parade in Moscow on the 9th.

Economic Impact –

Russian defense spending reached nearly half a billion dollars last year, which is 6.7 percent of GDP. It is also more than the combined spending of all the other European countries. Russian spending is expected to reach 7.5 percent of GDP in 2025. But by 2026 or 2027 economic and military reality will catch up with the Russian war effort. That’s because the Russian people are fed up with the lack of jobs, consumer goods and basic food supplies. Government officials are concentrating on money making activities and consider the war an annoying lost cause. Vladimir Putin eventually lost the support of the wealthy oligarchs because these businessmen were losing their fortunes to inflation and western sanctions. Without western components there was not much Russian factories could produce besides basic commodities using local resources.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/2025050201646.aspx#gsc.tab=0

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched another large drone attack involving 150 strike and decoy UAVs. Air defenses successfully shot down 64 attack drones, while 62 decoys failed to reach their targets.
At least 10 drone strikes were reported in Zaporizhzhia,

Ukraine launched a large drone attack across Crimea overnight. Russian Telegram channels say Ukrainian drones hit near Zhuravlivka in the Simferopol area. Air defenses and the Black Sea Fleet were active over Orlovka, Kacha, and the coast near Tarkhankut. Some drones were also flying toward Yevpatoria and Saky.
Dozens of explosions reported in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea.
Major explosions reported this morning near Russian-occupied Saki Airbase in Crimea, as Ukrainian attack drones swarm the peninsula.

Russian Ministry of defense reported shooting down 121 drones, including 89 over occupied Crimea and 23 over Black Sea

Russian losses per 02/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1110 men
+9 tanks
+5 AFVs
+50 artillery
+4 AD systems

Kursk -

In Kursk region Ukrainian forces have repelled 33 Russian army assaults, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports. As far as the number of reported attacks, the Kursk sector leads the pack.

Summary —

Ukraine did a lot of targeting of Russian sites in Crimea overnight. Little specifically said about the exact targets engaged, but I have a hunch that they were air defense related. I further suspect that the ‘threat’ to hit the parade in Moscow might actually be a diversion for Ukraine’s real target -the Kerch Strait Bridge. Given all the peace discussion where the US is positioning to allow Russia to keep the captured territory, Ukraine may well be thinking - sure, but no bridge for you. Its been a while since Ukraine has focused on the bridge, a very weak link to Russian’s logistical support of the region as well as forces the southern front. This time of year is also when Russians flock to Crimea to soak up the sun on the (now oily) beaches of the Black Sea.

Ukraine still holds a small portion of Russian Kursk, and the numbers of attacks show Russia still working hard to get it all back.

Moderately heavy fighting continues along the front, with no evidences of where the Russian spring offensive is going to strike.

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT

***
Military movements and actions -

GPS spoofing by Pakistan shifting locations inside Pakistan to inside India
Civilian aircraft from Lahore being shifted to a location in Rajasthan near the international border, standing still, spinning in mid air

Political actions -

US continues calls to India and Pakistan to try to defuse the situation.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -

India’s military has been given the green light for military operations. The big question is where and with how much. I still suspect that something will kick off this weekend.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- IAF airstrike near Syrian presidential palace as a warning to leave the Druze alone.

- Mobilization for an enlarged Gaza operation(s) continue

——— GENERAL ——————————-

A ship carrying aid to Gaza in a bid to break Israel’s blockade has been hit by drones in international waters off Malta, according to the Freedom Flotilla Coalition, the group that organized the mission

Wildfires across Israel have largely been brought under control. Search underway for individuals seen on cameras starting some of the blazes.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

The IDF is preparing to intensify its operations in Gaza next week, according to Ynet. Reserve units have been notified by their commanders to get ready for deployment.

IAF hit targets all across Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Rumors that Israel is revisiting a plan to reinvade S Lebanon due to the failure of the Lebanese govt to uproot and disarm Hezbollah forces.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Emergency consultations are held at the Prime Minister’s Office regarding the situation in southern Syria. Two days ago, Israel pledged to defend the Druze, and now it is time to demonstrate that commitment in practice.

Israeli security source:
“We are closely following developments in Syria with the Druze.
We have carried out 5 warning strikes so far.
If the new regime attacks the Druze, we will intervene directly to hit them.”

Forces of the Syrian Interior Ministry heading towards the Suwayda Governorate tonight, where they will establish positions along the border between Rif Dimashq and Suwayda.

After a meeting earlier tonight consisting of nearly all Druze religious, civil, and community leaders in the Suwayda Governorate of Southwestern Syria, they have released a statement swearing loyalty to a unified Syria led by the government in Damascus, rejecting any violence by rebel or extremist groups, and accepting forces of the Syrian Interior Ministry, with plans to recruit security forces from the local populous of Suwayda.

An unusual and joint statement from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yisrael Katz has now been issued:

Israeli Air Force launched a precision-airstrike meters away from the Presidential Palace in Damascus, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stating following the strike, “This is a clear message to the Syrian regime. We will not allow a deployment of forces south of Damascus and any threat to the Druze community.”

Netanyahu’s office: The Prime Minister spoke with the spiritual leader of the Druze community in Israel, Muwaffaq Tarif, regarding the situation in Syria. Sheikh Tarif thanked the prime minister for his directives to act decisively to defend the Druze in Syria.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Red Alerts across Northern Israel, following the launches of two long-range ballistic missile by the Houthis. Both were successfully intercepted Minor damage from debris was noted.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Situation in S Syria is still tense. The radical followers of Jolani have been mostly stopped from moving further into Druze territories and the Syrian govt has issued assurances of protection that have been skeptically agreed to by Druze leaders. This agreement, though seems to work to isolate Druze settlements and restrict them and their ability to defend themselves. IAF strikes in Damascus sent a very clear warning to Jolani and his govt to shape up and get his terror militias under control.

Movement towards a larger Gaza engagement continue. Hostage and ceasefire talks, though technically ongoing, are not gaining any real traction. One big strategic question is just where is Israel going to herd the “non combatants” to when they move in?

Houthis managed to launch a couple of ballistic missiles towards Israel, the first in many days. Houthi launches have been progressively further and further apart, indicating that the US air campaign is wearing this aspect of the Houthi military down. Remember also, these are mobile units that are often difficult to spot and practice a ‘shoot and scoot’ tactic to further their life expectancy.

Key observations on Iranian involvement and FAFO below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.

All purchases of Iranian Oil, or Petrochemical products, must stop, NOW! Any Country or person who buys ANY AMOUNT of OIL or PETROCHEMICALS from Iran will be subject to, immediately, Secondary Sanctions. They will not be allowed to do business with the United States of America in any way, shape, or form. Thank you for your attention to this matter, PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP”

***
US Secretary of State says Iran must completely halt uranium enrichment and grant American inspectors access to nuclear sites. “If you’re not building a bomb, you shouldn’t be afraid of inspections, including by Americans”

***
It was Iran that called off the upcoming Saturday meeting with E3 representatives, which was set to address the nuclear program among other issues. “The reason for the cancellation is unclear,” a European diplomat told Yisrael Hayom.

The fourth round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks set for Saturday in Rome is likely delayed to next week. Friday’s Iran-EU meeting may also be postponed - Axios
Talks between the US and Iran scheduled for Saturday have been postponed for “logistical reasons,” per an announcement from Omani FM. According to the Iranian Foreign Ministry they were postponed due to US criticizing “the contradictory approach of American decision-makers and their lack of goodwill and seriousness in advancing the path of diplomacy.” a probable reference to Hegseth’s threat of military action .

Note -CONNECTING THE DOTS?

- USS Truman’s emergency maneuvers may point to Iranian involvement to enhance Houthi targeting.

- See trumps new sanctions above

- Hegseth’s warning yesterday (inferring Iranian actions in the Houthi targeting of the Truman).

- Warning from weeks ago that actions by Houthis will be seen as actions by Iran.

Now the sudden pull out of talks by Iran. I think Iran tried to help houthis take out the carrier by providing technical support and other intel. This was not missed by US intel, and previous warnings to Iran not to support houthis may have crossed a big red line. Now Iran is publicly pulling out of talks, trying to make themselves out to be the victim.

The case is now being made to strike Iran by the US. Iran participated in a direct manner in an effort to take out the USS Truman and is being dishonest at the negotiation table. With hawk Rubio as new National Security Advisor (as well as Sec State), the swing towards the military option is gaining.

Iran may have only until around May16 to reverse this trend.

Iraq -

Upcoming national elections see Iranian backed militia groups putting forth competing candidates for office, potentially splitting the vote and allowing anti-iranian candidates to win.

May the Farce Be With You

CW2 / Domestic violence - Threat Level - WATCH - up dated May 1, 2025
May Day - May 1st

Yesterday so far seems relatively quiet for the May Day series of protests. Reports from sources likely to be up later today and tomorrow for todays actions. One report from a couple of days ago -

Four suspected violent Antifa militants were arrested at a May Day violent direct action in Frederick, Md. on May 1.

Around 20 masked militants in black bloc began attacking vehicles with umbrellas and intimidating the public, according to the local police. Responding officers were assaulted by the group. One officer was hit on the head with a projectile and another was bashed with a metal pole.

Four militants were arrested and found with laser pointers (to blind targets), explosive devices and riot tools.

https://x.com/mrandyngo/status/1918344261797593555?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - When they call for “Black Bloc” you know that there will be violence.

Economy- Threat Level - WATCH - as of April 4, 2025

U.S. workers saw wages rise, with hourly earnings up 3.8% and weekly earnings up 4.1% year-over-year in April.

The United States added 177,000 jobs in April, despite nearly 9,000 federal workers losing their positions, according to a new report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This exceeded expectations

In Friday’s report, the BLS indicated that there was no change in the unemployment rate between March and April, as it remained at 4.2%.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

USN successfully fired an end to end test of a hypersonic missile slated to be installed on the Zumwalt class of ships. Warhead is maneuverable, contrary to many of the ‘hypersonic’ weapons of opposing nations.

POLITICAL FRONT –

DC Appeals Court reverses judicial coup against key Trump moves to lay off workers and cancel grants, activities at Voice of America and other left propaganda agencies. Majority rules lower court had no jurisdiction, which means grantees must go to different court to litigate a contract dispute and employees must use the administrative personnel dispute process to fight about being fired. If upheld, this push back on judicial activism could largely destroy the Left’s judicial coup against Trump’s effort to restore political control of the administrative state.

https://x.com/tomfitton/status/1918780493106946333?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATION - Appeals courts are beginning to turn the tide of the activist judges in their attacks on Trump’s policies.

China -

Persistent reports of protests and plant closings in China due in part to shutdowns resulting from the Trump tariffs. Again, tight country controls on news headed out of the nation.

Phillipines –

Six China Coast Guard (CCG) personnel landed on the disputed Sandy Cay in the Spratly Islands, possibly signaling that the PRC will aggressively pursue territorial claims in the South China Sea amid growing US-Philippine military cooperation.

The Philippines stated that it witnessed “the illegal presence” of a PRC Coast Guard vessel 1,000 yards from one of the sandbanks near Sandy Cay and seven PRC militia vessels in the area. Philippine officials later claimed that the PRC did not seize the disputed reef.

OBSERVATION - China will likely soon establish a ‘base’ on the sand bar, surrounded with combat capable vessels, forcibly taking it from Philippines who’s only means of retrieval would be a war.

Russia -

Threat Level WATCH, Ongoing - into the fourth year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

*****

Zelensky says he cannot guarantee the safety of diplomats and leaders to the May 9 parade in Moscow.

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Putin says he hopes Russia won’t need to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine:

“They wanted to provoke us, to make us slip. There was no need to use [nuclear] weapons — and I hope there won’t be. We have enough forces to bring what we started in 2022 to a logical conclusion with the result Russia needs.”

Ukraine –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing Apr 24, 2025

WEATHER FORECAST – Temps 40 - 60s with scattered rain and showers.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russia launched 165 drones overnight on May 3–4, including strike UAVs and decoys; Ukrainian defenses shot down 69 Shahed-type drones and neutralized 80 decoys that failed to reach their targets.

Russian losses per 04/05/25 reported by the Ukrainian general staff

+1340 men
+11 tanks
+24 AFVs
+52 artillery
+1 MLRS
+1 AD system
+2 aircraft. Su30s over the Black Sea

Ukrainian drone boats used Western-supplied AIM-9 Sidewinder missiles to shoot down a pair of Russian Su-30SM fighters over the Black Sea on Friday, per Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov. These would be the first Sidewinder kills on Russian fast jets during the Ukraine war.

Russian Territory –

The Strela transformer plant in Bryansk’s Suzemka is burning, confirmed by local residents and the regional governor.
Strela specializes in producing transformers, autotransformers, and reactors, serving key sectors such as defense, aerospace, electronics, and research. This plant has already been targeted in past attacks in November 2024 and December 2023.

Summary —

The anti-aircraft defense drone boats were with a group of other drone boats launching attacks on Crimea. They launched drones against Russian targets. The ADA boats were protecting them from Russia fighters that were attacking the flotilla. Impressive ingenuity.

Ukraine’s air defenses are still struggling to confront the new Shahed tactics, and a lot of them are getting thru to their targets. These targets however, tend to be civilians and not military, hence having even less ADA protection.

Fighting ticked up a little on the front. Observers and analysts are noting that Russia’s efforts on the ground are failing to capture ground like they did during the Oct - Dec 2024 timeframe, yet still suffering high losses. It ceases to amaze me that Russia doesn’t actually concentrate a force and use maneuver with supporting fire to break thru. They daily just throw groups across the ‘no mans land’ with virtually no followup hoping to reach Ukraine lines to get a toe hold. Lacking any kind of a followup force, the survivors of the charge usually get picked apart.

May 9 could be interesting should Ukraine launch an attack on Moscow during the parade, or even target the parade. Such an act could be used by putin to launch tactical nukes against Ukraine - he’d almost be forced to. A slightly lesser affront to Russia would be to take out the Kerch Strait bridge - using a Moscow attack as a head fake. Bottom line, should Ukraine do something extreme towards Russia, I would expect putin to reply with exceptional force and it won’t be pretty

Pakistan / India – Threat Level - WATCH, April 23, 2025

At this stage, a lot of the information is not confirmed and in some cases fully RUMINT

***
Military movements and actions -

Pakistan says it will use “the full spectrum of power, both conventional and nuclear” in response to a conflict with India.

OVERALL OBSERVATIONS -
Quiet, too quiet. Still some chest pounding by both sides. Could be the different commands are evaluating the updated troop positions and goals of any attack. If we get thru the rest of the weekend, I think the likelihood of a big battle will start to decline.

ISRAEL –
Threat Level WATCH Ongoing - Apr 24, 2025

Key overnight developments -

- Houthi missile hits Ben Gurion

- IAF hit numerous targets in Syria as a warning to leave the Druze alone

- Call up for Gaza ops accelerating.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Israel is processing approximately 60,000 call-up orders to reserve forces in the coming days.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————

IAF airstrikes across the territory

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

While I was traveling, IAF hammered Syrian targets. Observers noted the scope of Israeli attacks in Syria was larger than usual. Either Israel is making good on its warnings to the Sharaa government about its hostile treatment of Druze minority or a UAV that was launched toward Israeli territory earlier today came from Syria & not Yemen.

The Israel Defense Force has confirmed that fighter aircraft struck a military site, anti-aircraft guns, and surface-to-air missile infrastructure tonight in southwestern Syria, adding that the “IDF will continue to operate as necessary to defend Israeli civilians.”

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthis fired a ballistic missile that managed to get past Arrow and THAAD interceptors and strike an open area at Ben Gurion airport.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

The UK, alongside France, is in discussions with Saudi Arabia about recognizing a Palestinian state at a United Nations conference in June.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

It looks like full speed ahead for Gaza operations. The wheels have been set in motion.

Tension still with Syria, though it looks like the Jolani militias are standing down.

Israel will likely launch an airstrike against the Houthis this week - perhaps targeting their airport.

I still think the clock is ticking on Iran, see below.

Iran –
Threat Level - WARNING Apr 24, 2025
- May 5th - projected end of negotiation window Perhaps extended to May 16th due to Trump visit to the region.

A 4.0-magnitude earthquake struck the city of Mahdasht, west of Tehran Province, at a depth of 8 kilometers, state media reported. Residents of parts of Tehran and Karaj also felt the tremor.

POSSIBLY RELATED -
Report of massive explosion at a power station in Karaj, in Iran’s Alborz Mountains

OBSERVATION - Station’s proximity to the epicenter and timing suggest that the quake may be the cause of the fire/explosion.

***
The New York Post:
Tehran has every reason to drag its feet with the nuclear talks if Witkoff and Trump allow it, because they believe that ‘as long as Washington talks, Jerusalem doesn’t shoot’ - and through this prism everything else flows.

The main component of Tehran’s diplomatic strategy today is not to obtain sanctions relief, but to use direct contact with the US as a real human shield against a preemptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities.

OBSERVATION - This is what I’ve ben saying for a while now. Iran doesn’t want an agreement, they want to delay, delay and delay any operations against them. As long as they are ‘talking’ to the US, Israel will be hindered from acting independently.

Iraq -

Iran loses another significant financial income: Iraq will stop importing electricity from Iran following US sanctions. Iraq has used alternative electricity lines to import from Jordan and Turkey.

Syria -

International coalition aircraft destroyed infrastructure around the Al-Omar oil field base east of Deir Ezzor. The infrastructure that was bombed had been used by US forces before being recently evacuated.

Mexico -

Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum has just rejected President Trump’s offer for US military intervention to combat cartels in Mexico.

OBSERVATION - No surprise here

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