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Threat Matrix 2025

Posted on 01/01/2025 6:44:53 AM PST by Godzilla

Welcome to Threat Matrix 2025

For historical reference TM2024 link is 

https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4207046/posts?q=1&;page=1#1

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 24th year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2024 has been “historic”: - The landslide election of Trump back into the Whitehouse, and the collapse of the massive lawfare effort against him. - Assassination attempts on Trump - Stunning defeat of Hamas and Hezbollah by Israel - Israel directly hits Iran after Iranian missile strikes, eliminating Iranian missile production capabilities for several years as well as destroying most of its air defense assets. - The almost overnight overthrow of Syria’s Assad and the associated serious losses to Russia and Iran/Hezbollah

I expect 2025 to be even worse as we are facing: - Massive political infighting as the Swamp tries to thwart the Trump agenda - Potential for civil unrest and violence driven by the communist left and Antifa affiliated elements. - Potential violence as Trump implements is deportation plan for millions of illegals. - The potential for a serious and deep recession - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - Combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Russian nuclear threats - China making a move on Taiwan - Israel and Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose – even more so following 2022.

So buckle up for the ride. This is an open thread that I want to continue as a clearing house of tidbits of intelligence contributed by the FR community so that we are all aware of what’s happening and what the impacts of those events will be. Knowledge is power


TOPICS: Government; Miscellaneous; Politics; Society
KEYWORDS: threatmatrix; threats; tm
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To: Oorang

Ryan popped up on my radar recently over the LV bombers ‘manifesto’ Still evaluating the quality of the information he is putting out on other subjects like this, but does have credible followers that I don’t generally discount.


41 posted on 01/05/2025 6:05:36 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Back in the saddle again. It was a busy weekend globally and nationally so some subjects are summarized.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025

Gay and transgender liberals around the country are arming themselves over perceived concerns they’ll be rounded up and placed in “concentration camps” under a second Trump administration, according to a report.

The Philadelphia Inquirer on Sunday profiled several members of the emerging gun-toting left, who belong to groups with names like the Liberal Gun Club, the Socialist Rifle Association and Pink Pistols.

Although precise figures regarding LGBTQ gun ownership are tough to ascertain given the small cohort, the Liberal Gun Club told the outlet that it’s received “thousands” of firearms training requests since the election — more than in all of 2023 combined — and that about a quarter of them were from those in the LGBTQ community.

“Three months before the election, that’s when the alarm bells started to ring,” said a 24-year-old trans woman who recently decided to purchase a gun, identified by the outlet only as “A.”

“Minorities that are armed are more difficult to legally oppress,” she said, expressing relief that she’d be ready to fight back “in the event of hate crimes or terrorist attacks.”

https://nypost.com/2025/01/05/us-news/lgbtq-liberals-start-arming-themselves-over-baseless-fear-of-being-placed-in-concentration-camps-report/

OBSERVATION - The growth of LGBTQ interest in guns and learning how to shoot them has grown from the 2016 period with the assistance of Antifa elements such as the Socialist Rifle Assoc and others. What we already know and the MSM refuses to acknowledge is that most of the mass casualty events of the past years have been committed by LGBTQ - based individuals. Now we have mentally unstable individuals having their paranoia stoked by the left looking more and more to the ‘legitimate’ use of guns in support of their ‘legitimate’ uses of violence against opposition.

Should things go sideway, this will add to the chaos. Many of these will be cannon fodder of the leftist foot soldiers should they try to go kinetic.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025

Considerable discussion over the potential for terrorism in the coming days. Some are very concerning. One from a few posts above note the following -

(ht/oorang) “We had two solid sources, one south of the border and then one from an element within our own government that confirmed independently of each other that some Iranian-made MANPADs had come across the border.”
Nine minute interview at link:

https://x.com/ShawnRyan762/status/1875366325154963712?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1875366325154963712%7Ctwgr%5Ecaa3bebf1222365fefacd888e995e03afc572c40%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fncrenegade.com%2Firanian-missiles-in-the-us%2F&mx=2

This concern was raised following the first Trump assassination attempt, that his very identifiable Trump Force 1 could be targeted by a manpad. It has been a concern over the past decade at least.

Another discussion raised is the likelihood of 1000 ISIS terrorists in country and setting up cells to strike vulnerable targets. Again, this has been on the radar for some time now - growing more dangerous with the biden border policies and the abundant reports of terrorists intercepted at the border - only to be released by DHS orders. If anyone thinks that no terrorists got into the country buried within the 12 million illegals, you will be sadly surprised one day.

Finally, a spinoff of the east coast drone mysteries - very much growing concerns of the used of FPV drones for assassination attacks. The Ukraine war has developed the technique and technology to a fine art. These drones are essentially impossible to stop due to the inability to detect early and newer, jamming bypassing controls. Once again - look to the above access into the US by hostile agents, not only jihadis but China, NK, Russia etc. Besides individual attacks, mass attacks on Air Force bases, and other key military facilities has been harkened to the next Pearl Harbor attack scenario. It doesn’t take a very big bomb to take out a B2 bomber folks, or strike Minuteman control centers.

In note the drone issue in linkage to the Los Vegas bomber who’s manifesto was reportedly sent out and incorporated claims of an anti-gravity drive unit used by both the US and China. Rantings of a man who’s lost his mind or a real warning? Not much else has popped on this. The only other item is higher quality photos of the moment of the explosion suggest that he was still alive when it exploded. I don’t expect much more detail wise.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Latest job numbers due out today


Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Western experts have publicly called on China to be more transparent about a viral outbreak overwhelming its hospitals — as data shows the virus is growing in the US.

It is thought China’s outbreak is being fueled by the relatively unknown virus human metapneumovirus (HPMV), which normally causes cold-like symptoms such as a blocked nose, headache, shivering and tiredness.

Their warning comes as the US experiences its own increase in HMPV cases, with positive test percentages doubling from the beginning to the end of December.

According to the latest CDC data, just under 300 positive test results reported during the last week of December, the latest figures available.

The US CDC said it is ‘monitoring’ the cases in China but believe they are ‘not currently a cause for concern in the US.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14255623/virologist-warning-chinese-hospitals-hmpv-virus.html

OBSERVATION - The globalist medical community looks to be looking for its next wuhan plague.

***
In a related search for a new plandemic - Louisiana reports its first human fatality from H5N1 bird flu.
The victim, over 65 years old with pre-existing medical conditions, contracted the virus through exposure to a mix of wild birds and a non-commercial backyard flock.

Question returns - did he die due to these pre existing conditions and the H5N1 piggybacked on these conditions?


POLITICAL FRONT –

Democrats did not object to the electoral college count of a Republican president for the first time in a century, making President-elect Donald Trump the official winner of the 2024 presidential election.

Before Monday, Democrats have objected to the election of every Republican president since 2001. Democrats tried to block Bush’s electoral vote in 2001. In 2005, a Democrat tried to challenge the electoral vote count in Congress. In 2017, House Democrats tried to object to electoral votes from multiple states, with then Vice President Joe Biden certifying the election.

In 2001, Democratic California Rep. Maxine Watters tried to challenge the results but she was denied by then Vice President Al Gore.

https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/06/first-time-this-century-democrats-dont-challenge-gop-president-electoral-votes/

OBSERVATION - They are planning other things.
“The short answer is that the whole thing was tactical. Democrats decided a while back that the 2016 tantrums are not advisable and no longer work. And are probably pointless anyway since Trump secured his second term. Now they’re bragging about how much they respect the constitutional process, not because they actually do, but because it serves to cover a change of strategies.”

https://www.frontpagemag.com/why-didnt-any-democrats-object-to-trumps-certification/

***
A Department of Justice bureaucrat who insisted on a SWAT-style raid with shoot-to-kill orders at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence has retired.

Jay Bratt has worked with the DOJ for over three decades and was staring directly at a potential humiliating termination by Trump’s incoming Attorney General Pam Bondi.

https://thepopulisttimes.com/wasnt-worth-it-trumps-classified-documents-prosecutor-jay-bratt-who-ordered-swat-raids-with-shoot-to-kill-orders-resigns/

OBSERVATION - They must think that by resigning (and there are many others doing the same) they will avoid legal scrutiny for their actions. They will find themselves very wrong it that is the idea. In the same manner they pursued Trump after he left the WH, so too they will be pursued.

***
Speaking of legal stuff, AG Garland and his staff, plus other DOJ Officials TBD potentially face criminal investigation for improper access/disclosure of Rule 6(e) materials to Jack Smith after he was DQ’d from the Florida case, and the D.C. case was dismissed?

Violations of Rule 6(e) are subject to a criminal penalty.

This comes about over another ‘report’ that Smith is preparing to release on his actions. If Smith still has access to those materials for purposes of writing his “Report” to the AG, has he been provided unauthorized access in violation of the Rule?

The defendants are urging the court to issue an injunction preventing Smith, Attorney General Merrick Garland, and the Department of Justice from finalizing or disseminating the report. They argue that its release would cause “irreparable harm” by violating due process and the rules governing criminal proceedings. A hearing on the matter has been requested to address these concerns fully.

https://redstate.com/joesquire/2025/01/06/jack-smith-breaking-more-rules-trump-co-defendants-file-motion-to-block-special-counsel-report-n2184032


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced on Monday that he intends to resign as party leader and prime minister after pressure from within his own Liberal Party increasingly grew amid heightened criticisms over his handling of the economy and threats levied by President-elect Donald Trump. He said he will resign once the party selects a new leader.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Just a note - biden gave soros and hillary the medal of freedom - downgrading it to a dime store piece of junk.


Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

US govt states that China is so deeply embedded into our infrastructure (power and water) it could shut the country completely down.


China –

Chinese cyberattacks on Taiwan government averaged 2.4 million a day in 2024, report says - Reuters

Attacks attributed mostly to China’s cyber forces, with telecommunications, transportations and defense among the top targets.

***
Taiwan is investigating a suspected Chinese link to the cutting of an undersea Telecom Cable. Authorities intercepted the Shunxin-39, a Cameroon-flagged Cargo Ship, but bad weather prevented boarding, and it continued to South Korea. The Ship is linked to a Hong Kong-based Company led by a Chinese National. Taiwan’s Chunghwa Telecom confirmed rerouting of traffic to ensure uninterrupted service. The $500 million Trans-Pacific Express Cable has linked countries in East Asia with the United States’ West Coast since 2008. Authorities are still investigating the incident.


North/South Korea –

North Korea launched their “hypersonic” ballistic missile yesterday. No evidence reported that the warhead showed any ability to independently maneuver to its target.

I expect that this missile may soon be seen in Ukraine for further testing.


Russia -

*****

The Russian Kilo-class submarine Novorossiysk (B-61) has left the Mediterranean, retreating from Syria. The withdrawal leaves Russia with no permanent sub based in the Mediterranean.

At Tartus, Syria, the naval piers are empty but the equipment to be evacuated stretches for almost a km

Logistics –
Russian forces are now reported to be actively using NK 172 mm SP artillery units. Trainloads were reported being seen shipped west from NK. Use of these guns does pose a logistical issue since it is a different caliber than standard Russian artillery.

Economic Impact –
January 5, 2025: Three years after invading Ukraine, the Russian defense budget has turned into a monster devastating the economy. This crisis has been brewing since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The increased defense spending and the years of economic sanctions have deformed the economy as more is spent on weapons and military needs. This displaces production of civilian goods. High casualties in Ukraine plus the millions of men who left Russia to avoid military service have caused a labor shortage.

Military spending also reveals another Russian tradition, corruption in military procurement Corruption is less tolerated and more frequently punished in the civilian economy. Military production does not directly impact civilians and their lives.

Now that there is more military spending, corrupt officials are getting rich while the soldiers get shoddy equipment. In the case of winter clothing procured for the soldiers, a lot of that ends up on the black market while the troops go without and the military procurement officials get rich.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htproc/articles/2025010505744.aspx#gsc.tab=0


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling from the 40s into the 20-30 with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Not much has changed on the basics. Another daily drone attack - Out of 38 Shahed drones launched, 28 were shot down and another 10 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 07/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1970 men ( over 800k since war start )
+10 tanks
+25 AFVs
+45 artillery systems
+2 MLRS
+4 (!) AD systems

Kursk Front -
Ukrainian forces launched a major new attack in Russia’s western Kursk region, Russian military bloggers reported on Sunday. Ukraine forces advanced on three axis in the general direction of Kursk, penetrating initially 8 Km. Russian forces have desperately conducted counterattacks seeking to stop the advance, with the most recent Ukraine report of 94 Russian army assaults. This is up from a few days earlier in the range of 10 attacks.

Ukraine reportedly hit the sector defended by Chechen forces.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia has maintained a high tempo of attacks. Analysts suggest that Russia is trying to surround the town from the north east and southwest.

Summary —
Ukraine surprised Russia again with its renewed offensive in Kursk. They have already caused Russia to commit more forces to the region and drawing them away from the Pokrovsk axis. Russia has been desperately trying to expel Ukraine from the region with only minor success but had reached an apparent stalemate. Many of the reinforcements sent to the region have sustained heavy losses - this includes the N Korean detachment.

Ukraine has also been using its deep strike assets in this sector to soften up the Russian forces and interfere with their support and reserve forces. HIMARS in particular has been busy hitting Russian troop concentrations and HQs.

Now having broken the 800K personnel losses mark, Russia seems to be refusing to change its tactics and is willing to push losses even higher. Daily losses in the 1800 - 2000 range have become the norm.

I really don’t seem much change in the tempo of fighting. I suspect that the Ukraine attacks in the Kursk sector will slow and forces consolidate for the inevitable counter attacks.
The Russian slog on Pokrovsk will also continue, with their efforts to strike at lateral areas less defended than the main city.


Europe / NATO General –

According to the BBC, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer may end his country’s security partnership with the United States if Donald Trump does not distance himself from Elon Musk’s recent comments on grooming gangs.

The report comes as Musk, who is widely seen as one of the most powerful voices in and around the incoming Trump administration, continues to wage war against the British government and specifically Keir Starmer over their persecution of anti-Islam activist Tommy Robinson and their refusal to hold an inquiry over the grooming scandal carried out by mainly Pakistani men against white British girls.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/01/report-keir-starmer-may-cut-britains-security-ties/

OBSERVATION - What is throughly disgusting about this whole thing is that the ruling elite are more angry at Musk for exposing and amplifying attention to this growing disgrace than they are towards there illegals who did this and the bureaucrats/leaders who condoned and protected these actions.
I can’t remember which party leader actually went as far as to blame the 11-12 year old girls who were ravaged by these groomers as “choosing their lifestyle” . I cannot imagine any girl of any age willingly submitting themselves to being gang raped and abused. This is an evil dark stain on Great Britain and those cowardly leaders who allowed their citizens to be brutalized while protecting the perpetrators.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- IDF starts withdrawals from parts of S Lebanon

- IDF increases operations against Hamas in Gaza.

- Trump reiterated his threat toward Hamas over failure to release all the hostages.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Senior Hamxs official Osama Hamdan:
“Our stance is firm: ceasefire, Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, prisoner exchanges, and Gaza’s reconstruction—no Israeli conditions.”

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

“There is an estimated 40% of the tunnels still remaining, hundreds of kilometers of tunnels the Israeli intelligence was not aware of,” said Yoni Ben Menachem, an expert of Middle Eastern affairs from Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs, told The Media Line. “There are still very long tunnels that Israel has yet to have located, some of them with hostages inside. This requires a very big operation and a massive amount of explosives that Israel currently does not possess.”

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-836273

Elements of a third IDF division have entered Gaza in support of a greatly increased ground operation against Hamas et al.

Published interview of Hamas leader captured at a Gaza hospital states that they didn’t think Israel would attack the hospital because of its ‘protected’ status. He described how they transferred fighters and arms/munitions into / out of the hospital to support attacks against IDF elements and tunnels.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army withdrew from the western section of the Lebanese border, in the most significant move since the start of the ceasefire with Hezbollah

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Over the weekend, IAF struck some more ammo dumps in Syria.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

PA forces and those loyal to Hamas have increased their conflict in recent days.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi’s have been regularly tossing one to two missiles towards Israel. There are rumors that China may have made a deal with them - supplying arms and munitions - to protect their shipping thru the Red Sea Region.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Wait and see game in Lebanon. Will the Lebanese Army step up and actually start disarming Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River as Israel pulls out of the south? The extensive effort Israel has placed into destroying Hezbollah fortifications and positions in S Lebanon will enable it to push back into those regions relatively quickly should the ceasefire break down.

Hamas is hardening the hostage issue - almost daring Trump to do something when he gets into office. Israel is already positioning its forces to increase ground operations into the refugee areas that Hamas has hidden itself in.

As noted above, intel indicates that as much as 40% of the tunnels remain and unlocated. These areas are beneath the refugee areas. Israel will increase operations in these areas if Hamas refuses to negotiate in good faith - something that they are not doing.

Iran is increasingly paranoid over potential strikes on its nuclear weapons related facilities. Gut feeling is that they are racing to try to get a working device. Globally, observers jump at any quake in Iran. People please, note the depths of these quakes before jumping to conclusions. Depths of 10km are not test explosions in regions highly prone to earthquakes in the range of 4 - 5.

Will biden order a strike before leaving office? With his efforts to try to stymie a Trump agenda for the region and his positioning of forces in the region, a major strike is very possible. Is he willing to start a war with Iran to get back at Trump? I don’t even want to think of that (see also Terrorisim above)


Iran –

IRGC launched an air defense drills near Natnaz Nuclear facility amid Israeli strike fears.

Released photographs show what appears to be a hodgepodge of air defense missiles systems - most likely scraped together from what was left over from previous Israeli air strikes - around the facility. Iran is portraying this as an unpenetratable air defense.

IN RELATED - Some talk out of Trump’s advisors that Iran could be within days of a nuclear breakout. Has some parallel to the reports out of the Biden camp that they are even considering an attack before Trump comes into office. (such an attack could serve the purpose of bogging him down into a war to mess with his agenda).


Lebanon -

Ahead of Thursday’s presidential election in Lebanon elections, here are the three main candidates (all Maronite Christians):

Suleiman Frangieh, Chairman of the Marada Movement, a Maronite party. He is the preferred candidate of Hezbollah.

Samir Geagea, President of the Lebanese Forces, the largest Christian party in the parliament. He is the preferred candidate of much of the Christian community and is a bitter political enemy of Hezbollah.

General Joseph Aoun, the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017, seen as a compromise candidate who is preferred by Saudi Arabia.


Syria -

US Treasury issues Syria-related exemption license. Allowing transactions with government institutions, some energy transactions and personal transfers in Syria.

***
Growing reports and rhetoric that Iran intends to destabilize Syria.


Turkey –

Talks about developing a larger missile force and moving to intermediate range missiles.



42 posted on 01/07/2025 7:20:15 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla
Question returns - did he die due to these pre existing conditions and the H5N1 piggybacked on these conditions?

Or did the medical treatment protocol inflicted on him by the hospital do him in?

43 posted on 01/07/2025 8:45:26 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: Godzilla
What we already know and the MSM refuses to acknowledge is that most of the mass casualty events of the past years have been committed by LGBTQ - based individuals. Now we have mentally unstable individuals having their paranoia stoked by the left looking more and more to the ‘legitimate’ use of guns in support of their ‘legitimate’ uses of violence against opposition.

The corrupt FBI has been searching for 'lone wolves' among the conservative community for years - might be time to redirect them to find 'lone wolves' among the sexual weirdo community. I'm guessing they could 'prevent' a lot more terrorists acts by investigating the community that actually does the killing.

Other than t that no one cares what the sexual weirdo community does if they just leave the rest of us - AND OUR CHILDREN -alone. They might think their 'kinks' are of interest but they're boring.

44 posted on 01/07/2025 9:34:37 AM PST by GOPJ (AMERICA FOR AMERICANS if anyone wants to live in an overpopulated hellhole they can MOVE there..)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025

Massive rumors coming from Steve Quale and Alex Jones that leftists are planning a 40-50,000 person riot on Jan 20th.

OBSERVATION - Some regard the two above as gold in regards to conspiracies. I’ve followed Quale for well over 10 years - by an large his prognostications have been on the side of the twilight zone. Many intel sources that I tap into have been closely monitoring leftists and their attempts to organize. Not gaining traction. I’m more concerned about the few hard core leftists who may try to generate a mass casualty event or even assassination attempt (see drone concerns from yesterday). They do not have the momentum they had in 2016 and 2020.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

New data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics released Tuesday showed there were 8.1 million jobs open at the end of November, an increase from the 7.84 million seen in October and the highest level of job openings since May 2023.
The October figure was revised higher from the 7.74 million open jobs initially reported. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had expected Tuesday’s report to show 7.74 million openings in November.

OBSERVATION - Analysts suggest that this indicates that the market is stabilizing.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass spent Tuesday in Africa as part of a taxpayer-funded delegation attending the inauguration of John Dramani Mahama as Ghana’s president. The Democrat was there as her city battled wildfires and thousands of residents fled for their lives.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2025/01/08/democrat-l-a-mayor-karen-bass-in-africa-as-her-city-burns/

OBSERVATION - Typical liberal democrat, let the people fend for themselves, I’m spending your money. See more on Misc below.

***
Judge Merchan’s “sentencing” of Trump is still on for the 10th. He has enough corrupt fellow judges above him to keep delaying the inevitable overturning of his verdict for a while. This only serves the left’s narrative of a ‘felon’ as president.


North/South Korea –

Yesterday, the court granted the reissuance of arrest warrant against President Yoon Suk Yeol, requested by CIO. CIO’s attempt to delegate the warrant execution to police was withdrawn after police refused due to legal concerns.

Yeol remains holed up in the presidential mansion. Previous attempt to serve the warrant caused Yeol supporters to turn out in mass, preventing the servers from reaching him.

***
North Korea has begun deploying 250 Hwasong-11D TELs, each equipped with four canisters and a range of approximately 300 km, to front-line units near the DMZ. According to South Korean military intelligence, this is the first time a nuclear-capable system has been assigned to the KPA Ground Force, signaling a shift toward tactical nuclear weapon use under local command authority


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling from the 40s into the 20-30 with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 64 Shahed drones of which 41 were shot down and another 22 were suppressed by electronic warfare. One flew back to Belarus.

Russian losses per 08/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1660 men
+4 tanks
+16 AFVs
+19 artillery pieces

Russian Ministry of Defense reports shooting down 105 drones.

General staff of armed forces of Ukraine confirmed attack at the “Kombinat Kristal” oil depot in Engels of Saratov region of Russia, videos show the majority of the facility violently burning.

The “Kombinat Kristal” fuel storage facility, is crucial for supplying the Engels-2 airbase, home to Russian strategic aviation.

Kursk Front -
Ukraine makes minor advances, Russia attempts counter attacks.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian channels report that Russia currently has about 140,000 dedicated to this portion the front - maintaining its status as the focus of their ongoing offensive.

Summary —

Major loss of fuel for the strategic bombers overnight. Report indicate that even though the Ukraine drones were ‘intercepted’, enough flaming debris hit the fuel facility to set nearly all the storage tanks on fire.

The fight in Kursk is more maneuver based, granting Ukraine advantages since Russian and in particular the Chechezen elements focused on - are very poor in those combat skills. Thus Ukraine has been able to throw the Russians off balance with an economy of force operation.

Continued brutal fighting on the Pokrovsk sector with Russia attempting to surround the town on the northeast and southwest.


Belarus -

Belarus has increased its military presence in the Ukrainian border area. Units of the Ground Forces of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus have been redeployed to the Stolin, Lelchitsy, Mozyr and Gomel districts

OBSERVATION - This does not appear to be a threat to Ukraine. I’ll be following up to see if this is another of its exercises.


Europe / NATO General –

Great Britain continues to writhe under the growing rape grooming scandal. Unbelievable that they would turn a blind eye to what they’ve allowed to happen to their daughters in the name of not being ‘islamophobic’. Quite honestly, the perpetrators should be taken out to sea and a rope affixed to a large rock (millstone) placed around their necks and send them for a swim.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas completely refuses to concede to any Israeli condition

- Intelligence suggests that only 20 to 40 of the hostages are still alive.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Reports of a one-week Gaza ceasefire in exchange for a list of hostages is incorrect - Netanyahu’s office

***
Multiple intelligence and security sources at the highest levels of the U.S. and Israel confirm that authorities believe only about 20 of the 251 hostages taken alive by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, remain alive.

One U.S. government source said that 20 is the “working number” of those believed to be alive in ongoing negotiations underway in Qatar between Israel and Hamas.

The figure of 20 is approximate and includes only civilians and female Israeli soldiers taken prisoner.

“If the number included Israeli male soldiers, it could go higher,” one senior Israeli source told Newsmax, but suggested it would not be a large increase.

Some public assessments, however, say the number of remaining hostages could be closer to 40.

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas took 251 Israelis, foreigners, and soldiers from Israel back into the Gaza strip. Over 100 of these captives were released in a ceasefire deal that ended in December 2023.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-hamas/2025/01/07/id/1194241/

RELATED - The body of hostage Youssef Ziyadne has been discovered in a tunnel in the Gaza Strip, according to The Times of Israel.

In the same tunnel, the IDF uncovered evidence raising serious concerns about the fate of his son, Hamza Ziyadne, who was abducted with him.

***
Unconfirmed reports that the IDF has been ordered to a high-state of alert by Chief of General Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, due to concerns that Iran may soon launch a “Surprise Military Action” against Israel.
This may be linked to an Iranian statement on state media that “in the coming hours, the world will witness unusual scenes and extraordinary events.”

NOTE - This ‘statement’ is now over 12 hours old.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Israel continues up tempo operations across Gaza striking identified Hamas hides-holes in refugee areas.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army announces destruction of 5 ammunition depots in southern Lebanon

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

As the IDF continues its operations in the West Bank trying to prevent murderous attacks such as the one that resulted in the murder of three Israelis on Monday, it still faces difficulties stopping the flood of illegal weapons making their way to the West Bank from Iran via the Jordanian border.

The IDF Central Command refers to these efforts as the “weapons campaign,” citing the over 1,100 rifles seized by troops in the past year through round-the-clock operations across the West Bank.

According to an intelligence assessment by Central Command from two years ago, one in six Palestinian households in the West Bank contains an illegal weapon, ranging from handguns and makeshift rifles to standard AK47s or M-16s.

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/hydvocji1e

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

CENTCOM forces carried out precision strikes on two Iranian-backed Houthi weapon storage facilities in Yemen on Jan. 8. These sites were used for attacks on U.S. Navy ships and merchant vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Ireland, invoking Article 63 of the ICJ Statute, filed a declaration of intervention in the case South Africa v Israel in support of S Africa.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Hamas is playing a dangerous game of chicken. With recent intelligence suggesting that as few as 20 hostages remain alive, it is little wonder they are refusing to provide names to Israel and third party negotiators. They are also waving a red flag at Trump, daring him on. While silent on what US options may be, one possibility is loading Israel up with deep penetration bombs and let them unleash hell. I don’t think at this moment he would commit regular forces. He could team special ops with IDF/Mossad for additional effect.

Iran has gotten froggy with their rhetoric of the past few days. Some think that they are on the verge of launching a ‘surprise’ drone/missile attack. Other speculation that the likely propaganda statement “in the coming hours, the world will witness unusual scenes and extraordinary events.” could relate to a nuclear test/detonation. Iran has had a habit of overstatement and hyperbola as a way to bluff Israel and other opponents. However, with Trump due back in the WH in less than 2 weeks, Iran may be contemplating doing something soon and while biden is essentially out of the loop.

Operations in Judea and Samaria are increasing in intensity as the PA fights Hamas affiliate groups and Israel security forces back up PA as well as combats the growth of armed terrorists. Iran has made a goal of opening this area as a new front in its war against Israel. This has seen an increase in terror attacks against Israeli’s over the past few weeks.

Finally, Israel is conducting tactical withdrawals from parts of S Lebanon, while clearly stating that they will remain in other areas for at least another 30 days in order to finish demolishing Hezbollah facilities and arms/munitions caches.

Short term - Wild card being any Iran actions - I expect to see increased operations in Gaza and more tactical withdrawals in S Lebanon as clearing operations are finished.


Iran –

Iran has installed a new over-the-horizon (OTH) radar with a range of 800 km in the northwest region of the country.

A Nazir OTH radar was put into operation to monitor the country’s northern airspace in the highlands of Gilan Province and added to the country’s integrated air defense network.

Nazir radar with its 800 km range, can detect targets at altitudes exceeding 30 km. It can identify various low radar cross-section targets, such as drones and cruise missiles.

With the Nazir radar in Gilan, the entire airspace over the Baku government, Armenia, large parts of eastern Turkey, and the Caspian Sea will be under Iran’s air defense surveillance.

OBSERVATION - A big set up that under current tactical conditions, would be very easily taken out by Israel, leaving Iran essentially blind again.


Lebanon -

Elections remain the focus tomorrow and will indicate the path forward in regards to Hezbollah’s power in the country’s politics.


Syria -

Turkish Foreign Minister: Türkiye will launch a military operation against Kurdish militants in Syria if they do not comply with Ankara’s demands


Misc of Note –

The wildfires in the Los Angeles area are still ongoing and continuing to spread. Over 4,000 acres have now been burned between five separate wildfires. Over 30,000 have been ordered to evacuate. These fires have been driven by Santa Anna winds that have been gusting to nearly 100 MPH.

Late yesterday, firefighters found fire hydrants essentially empty, a result of the failure of local govts to fill water reservoirs.

Evacuation chaos lead to roads being clogged with abandoned vehicles, forcing fire fighting units to use bulldozers to push cars out of the way so they can access the fires.

Meanwhile, as noted above, the Mayor of LA is off on a boondoggle in Ghana.

OBSERVATION - First major disaster of the year. As with other major fires affecting urban areas, people waited to the last minute to try to get out - clogging the few roads away from the affected areas.

Seeing a smaller intensity natural emergency in the east with a major winter storm that has killed at least 6.

For both, a lack of preparedness and associated situational awareness is evident. In LA, videos show homes that have allowed the brush to grow close to their homes - very few put in any kind of a fire break. Forms of normalcy bias likely caused people to delay their evacuation until the last minute. In the east, weather warnings were issued days in advance, but people largely ignored them.

You have to be prepared to be your own first responder and ready to get the heck out of the way earlier rather than later.

Below is a NASA image of the fires

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ggxvo0YWMAECu6n?format=jpg&name=small


45 posted on 01/08/2025 8:20:20 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla
You kids need to chill back there.


46 posted on 01/08/2025 9:06:11 AM PST by Delta 21 (If anyone is treasonous, it is those who call me such.)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla.


47 posted on 01/08/2025 9:57:52 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla
Judge Merchan’s “sentencing” of Trump is still on for the 10th. He has enough corrupt fellow judges above him to keep delaying the inevitable overturning of his verdict for a while. This only serves the left’s narrative of a ‘felon’ as president.

Which isn't going to hurt him like they want it to.

Everything they try to bring him down backfires on them, making him more popular than ever.

Like muslims fighting Israel, they just aren't learning from the past.

48 posted on 01/08/2025 10:38:33 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Now coming up on 11 days until Trump’s return to the WH. biden et al still capable of dastardly actions though.


Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Seventeen years after it began design and development, the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) has completed work on the B61-12 nuclear warhead, the agency announced today.

The Last Production Unit of the upgraded warhead was completed on Dec. 18, roughly three years after production formally started on America’s updated nuclear gravity bomb. An October 2024 report from the agency [PDF] put the total program cost at around $9 billion.

“Completing the B61-12 on schedule is the latest example of what we’ve been saying for several years now: NNSA is delivering capabilities at the pace and scale needed by our Department of Defense partners and our deterrence requirements,” NNSA Administrator Jill Hruby said in the announcement.

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/01/us-completes-9b-b61-12-nuclear-warhead-upgrade/


Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics

Grand jury empaneled in Florida has found that Pfizer lied about the safety of the wuhan jab - and tried to hide the information.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Schumer saying that democrats should light up the fireworks as confirmation hearings begin for Trump cabinet members. He wants to swing the narrative initiative back to the democrats from the republicans/Trump.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden is considering preemptive pardons for certain individuals that may find themselves on President-elect Donald Trump’s enemies list, Biden told USA Today in an interview published Wednesday.

In addition to Pelosi and Cheney, rumors have circulated that Biden may grant pardons to former director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci and former Senator-elect Adam Schiff for his role in peddling the now debunked “Russia collusion” narrative.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/pardons-joe-biden-hunter-biden/2025/01/08/id/1194355/

OBSERVATION - I think I mentioned it before, but a second time wont hurt. The legal support for “preemptive pardons” is under intense scrutiny ever since biden pardoned hunter for a decade’s worth of undocumented crime. Traditionally, pardons applied to actual charges or convictions currently in the courts or post conviction conditions. The “preemptive” element covers a wide range of sins that are not under legal charges or adjudication. Some suspect it will not pass constitutional muster when challenged.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling from the 40s into the 20-30 with scattered rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine’s Air Force reports on a Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 70 Shahed drones launched, 40 were shot down and another 24 were suppressed by electronic warfare.
Explosions were reported in Kryvyi Rih, as it was hit with 2 Kh-59 missiles

Russian losses per 09/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1430 men
+17 tanks
+16 AFVs
+36 artillery systems

Summary —

Things returning to almost status quo again. Fighting in Kursk is scaling back with Ukraine making minor gains while Russia nibbles on the flanks. At the Pokrovsk axis, Russia forces continue to press to pass around the flanks of the city, taking heavy losses.

The Ramstine group, western allies and supporters of Ukraine, are meeting to map out future support for the war against Russia. This will be the last meeting prior to Trump returning to office.


Belarus -

Military build up on the border with Ukraine is an announced trading exercise, in some measures a command post exercise

As noted on other days, Russia Shahed drones continue to stray over the country .


Europe / NATO General –

Finnish Police said they have recovered a missing anchor as part of an investigation into suspected sabotage of power and internet cables in the Baltic Sea. The Russian Oil Tanker Eagle S was seized last month, suspected of dragging its anchor and damaging the Finnish-Estonian Estlink 2 Power Line and Telecom Cables. Finland impounded the ship and its cargo, while eight crew members face a travel ban amid sabotage allegations. The ship’s owner claims Finland lacks jurisdiction, but a Finnish court denied its release.


ISRAEL –

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Sec State Blinken says there is still a chance a ceasefire and hostage release can be worked out before Trump takes office.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Air and artillery strikes hit Hamas elements across Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The IDF 300th Territorial Brigade (146th Division) destroyed five Hezbollah weapons depots in southern Lebanon on January 8.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

IDF continues to move into abandoned Syrian army sites to remove weapons/munitions and destroy any elements that could pose a future threat to Israel.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Defense Minister Katz: Israel is on brink of war with West Bank terror groups; grave estimate presented in urgent meeting with local leaders in Judea & Samaria; IDF is ramping up prep for full-scale combat in the region.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Reports of several U.S-British aiirstrikes within the last hour, against the Jarban area within the Yemeni Capital of Sana’a.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Though not quite as organized with extensive tunnels and arms build-up, the growing Hamas affiliated threats in Judea and Samaria have grown to the point where Israel is now starting to use airstrikes to deal with concentrations of terrorist fighters. Many fights are occurring in densely populated towns, increasing collateral damage. The Palestinian Authority is in some ways cooperating with Israeli security forces as it sees these Hamas affiliated groups as a threat to their power base and fear they will topple the PA like they did in Gaza.

Operations continue to increase in tempo throughout Gaza, as Hamas et al continues to attack from ‘safe’ refugee regions and uses hospitals and schools for operations bases. In spite of Blinken’s assessment, it is increasingly unlikely that any kind of agreement will be reached before Trump returns to the WH.

Relative calm continues on the Lebanese front, with IAF continuing to destroy Hezbollah created infrastructure and bases. It does appear that in recent days the Lebanese army has been more proactive in moving against Hezbollah groups, but is more photo op than anything else.

The election of Aoun as the new Lebanese president will take a few days/weeks to further evaluate. A number of plusses and minuses in his background and intended plans for the country.

Iran continues to talk a big game, doing more press releases showing off its newest weaponry, the latest being an attack drone. Currently, Israel and Iran are at a facedown over who will launch the next attack and when. I believe that things will hold until after Trump takes over, then action, most likely by Israel, will take place.


Iran –

Two senior IRGC commanders admitted Iran’s inability to retaliate against Israel’s October airstrikes, citing financial struggles and the loss of Syria, its key ally. General Behrouz Esbati criticized delays in Iran’s response, saying earlier action could have bolstered their position.

Syria’s fall marked a devastating blow to Iran’s “Axis of Resistance,” with Assad’s regime collapsing under corruption and weak leadership. Esbati also accused Russia of betrayal, aligning with Israel after Iran’s initial retaliation.

IRGC General Esmail Kowsari echoed this, citing Iran’s financial constraints: “If we were stronger economically, True Promise-3 and even True Promise-4 could have been launched.” NYT

https://x.com/osint613/status/1877346872005685521?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA


Lebanon -

The 14th President of Lebanon is the commander of the Lebanese armed forces - Joseph Aoun!

General Joseph Aoun, the Commander of the Lebanese Armed Forces since 2017, seen as a compromise candidate who is preferred by Saudi Arabia and the US.

From the first speech of the newly elected Lebanese president:

- I pledge to ensure that the army will be the only body that will bear arms in Lebanon.

- I pledge not to grant citizenship to Palestinians in Lebanon during my term in office so as not to harm their right of return.

- I pledge that during my term of office, the state will work to fight terrorism and prevent Israeli aggression on Lebanese lands.

- We have an opportunity for serious dialogue with Syria to solve common problems.

Israel’s foreign minister congratulates Lebanon -
“I congratulate Lebanon upon the election of a new President, following a lengthy political crisis. I hope that this choice will contribute towards stability, a better future for Lebanon and its people and to good neighborly relations.”

OBSERVATION - Gained the votes necessary after the Hezbollah backed candidate pulled out and endorsed Aoun. From his remarks, there is a bent against Israel and for the Gazans (Palestinians). Just how his pledge for the Lebanese army to be the only group to be armed remains to be seen how it will play out. As General he did nothing to stop Hezbollah or the IRGC - what makes anyone think as a President he will be any different?


Syria -

Despite having already removed the bounty from the now de facto leader of Syria, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani; the Biden Administration has decided to defer any further decisions regarding diplomatic relations with Syria, and whether to remove Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) as an International Terrorist Organization, to the incoming Trump administration.


Misc of Note –

The wildfires in the Los Angeles area are still ongoing and continuing to spread.
Overnight, Runyon Canyon moved rapidly towards residential and commercial areas

The Hollywood Hills Fire, now officially called the Sunset Fire, advanced rapidly down the mountain towards Hollywood Boulevard, reaching the famous landmark overnight, with fire officials requesting the closure of the road from the west and east. Multiple buildings along the Boulevard are on fire this morning.

Matters have become worse as arsonists are lighting fires in otherwise non-burning urban areas of LA.

Additional fire fighting resources are being assembled but are days away from deployment.

The driver of the firestorm are the Santa Anna winds. weather.com forecasts that winds will slacken on Thursday, but remain gusty in parts of Southern California. Friday could bring another uptick in gusty Santa Ana winds, followed by a lull Saturday. Santa Ana winds will likely return again early next week.

Until they can get water back into their water supply reservoirs and charge the lines to fire hydrants, most fire crews will continue to be forced to watch buildings go up in flames while using their limited onboard and trucked in water supplies attempt to prevent adjacent homes from facing the same.


49 posted on 01/09/2025 6:21:12 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

“Grand jury empaneled in Florida has found that Pfizer lied about the safety of the wuhan jab - and tried to hide the information.”

Fantastic! That is HUGE!

Prayers Up for those in the CA fires. I can’t even imagine it!


50 posted on 01/09/2025 6:48:53 AM PST by Diana in Wisconsin (I don't have, 'Hobbies.' I'm developing a robust Post-Apocalyptic skill set.)
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To: Godzilla
Matters have become worse as arsonists are lighting fires in otherwise non-burning urban areas of LA.

I've come to the conclusion that arson is a crime worthy of the death penalty. It is so evil in intent.

51 posted on 01/09/2025 8:47:25 AM PST by metmom (He who testifies to these things says, “Surely I am coming soon." Amen. Come, Lord Jesus)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

Wow, the first full week of 2025 is over. Already, things are heating up.


Globalism / Great Reset –

BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager overseeing approximately $11.5 trillion in assets, has decided to withdraw from a climate pact backed by the United Nations (UN) that advocates for aggressive de-carbonizing of the economy.

In November, Texas and 10 other Republican-led states sued BlackRock and rivals, alleging that they disrupted coal production and raised energy prices.

“Texas will not tolerate the illegal weaponization of the financial industry in service of a destructive, politicized ‘environmental’ agenda. BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street formed a cartel to rig the coal market, artificially reduce the energy supply, and raise prices,” Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton said in a statement. “This is a stunning violation of State and federal law.”

https://americafirstreport.com/blackrock-exits-un-backed-net-zero-climate-pact/

OBSERVATION - A major WEF player, Blackrock is attempting to lower its profile as it sees the winds coming back against it under Trump. It will remain a major player in forcing companies to go green and this exit will have little impact on how it does it.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025

Forward Observer notes attempts to rally support for protests leading up to Jan 20 are growing.

“Far Left “Festivals of Resistance” events begin this weekend in Chicago, IL and Sacramento, CA. These events were announced in early December on Far Left blogs to gather activists and militants in preparation for the Trump inauguration.

- While the bulk of the events are still scheduled for the weekend of 18 January, Chicago-area organizers are hosting workshops on how to fight deportation, while Sacramento-area organizers are hosting workshops on how to organize, alternatives to police, self-defense, direct action, and other topics.

Forward Observer analysis states: “This is the first concerted, nationwide effort pushed by Far Left groups against the incoming Trump administration. Numerous blogs and social media accounts published a series of all-calls to publicize these opportunities to rebuild atrophied networks and reignite a stagnant movement. In all, well over 100 protest events are scheduled for the weekend of 18 January. . “

My observation - these groups have had trouble for over a year now to gain some kind of traction for major protests against Trump and his agenda. I don’t think the act of swearing Trump back into office will be a big enough trigger to restart massive protests and riots. The one trigger that may work will be the implementation of mass deportations.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025

NBC Network Report:
A Russian citizen was caught at the Mexican border in Texas with two passports, Russian and Kazakh, and with a drone hidden in his bag. During his interrogation, he admitted that he belonged to the Wagner Group, but it is still unclear what his intentions were.

OBSERVATION - Components of this apprehension point to potential terror versus your standard illegal immigrant. Remember, the increased concerns of a drone being used in an assassination attempt. No word on the drone he carrying, but it likely had modifications to be lethal considering there availability of drones here in the US.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

Dock workers strike on the east coast appears to have been averted. Union leaders ‘thank’ Trump.


POLITICAL FRONT –

The USSC refused to delay today’s sentencing of Trump by the corrupt Merchan. Though he says he will not rule for jail time, I don’t trust him any farther than I can throw him.

Are the radical leftists like him willing to provoke a constitutional crisis by jail?


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

(FO) President-elect Trump said he is planning to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there are no specific details yet, but the Russian government welcomes the meeting and will set no conditions.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Observers noted a lot of bad blood between elements of the presidential section for Carter’s memorial yesterday.


Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024

(FO) Officials said China-linked hackers breached the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. (CFIUS) as part of a broader hack targeting the Treasury Department. The officials said the government is reviewing files accessed by the hackers to determine the national security impact of the stolen information.


Illegal Immigration –

The violent Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua gang has been wreaking havoc in the U.S. and along the border with Mexico ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration.

“President Trump has been clear, as I’ve been clear from day one, the president is going to concentrate on public safety threats and national security threats,” Homan recently told CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

And he warned that Tren de Aragua gang bangers will be sent packing soon.

“We’re hoping that President Trump will work with Venezuela and like he did with Mexico and El Salvador, and get these countries take them back,” Homan added, referring to actions during Trump’s first term. “If they don’t, they’re still gonna be deported. They’re just gonna be deported to a different country. We’re not gonna be held up on removing public safety trust in this country.”

https://dallasexpress.com/crime/violent-venezuelan-gang-tren-de-aragua-wreaking-havoc-along-border-ahead-of-trumps-inauguration/

OBSERVATION - Some of the violence TDA is perpetrating along the border is to secure a capability to continue to infiltrate and smuggle - in order to support and expand operations in the US.

***
Customs and Border Patrol reported an average of 1,000 daily migrant encounters in the first week of 2025. Officials report encounters have not been this low since April of 2020. The same time period in 2024 saw 2,000 average daily encounters.

OBSERVATION - Not due much to biden, but hesitancy of illegals to challenge Trump’s mass deportation plans.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 72 Shahed drones of which 33 were shot down and another 34 were suppressed by electronic warfare. In Kyiv region, a shot down Shahed drone fell on a high-rise building, damaging a building and two dozen cars. No casualties were reported.

Russian losses per 10/1/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1830 men
+10 tanks
+32 AFVs
+24 artillery systems
+3 AD systems

Overnight, Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the base of the 238th artillery brigade and a nearby military airfield in Krasnodar Krai.

In Gatchina, Leningrad Oblast, a factory producing acetone caught fire after an overnight Ukrainian UAV attack. The governor had previously reported a ‘fire in a private house in this village’ as a result of a UAV attack.

***
Trump’s envoy for Ukraine has said he hopes to bring an end to the war by May after the US president-elect backtracked on his campaign pledge to establish peace within 24 hours of taking office

Kursk Front -
Tempo of fighting has slowed a little with both Russia and Ukraine announcing gains.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces pressed the attack along the northern portion of the salient towards Pokrovsk

Summary —
Russian losses continue to show that they are trying to maintain the initiative and momentum of the fight. Pokrovsk continues to be their prime objective. Ukraine has been able to construction more extensive and defendable positions in and around the town over the course of the past months which will make the Russians task even more difficult.

There are rumors and unconfirmed reports that the Russian high command is becoming increasingly concerned over personnel and equipment losses stemming from putin’s dictated objectives in Ukraine. As Ive stated before, sustainability of combat as present tempo is fast approaching the wall for Russia - the availability of bodies to throw against the Ukraine defenses are growing smaller and smaller.


Europe / NATO General –

British leaders as well as the EU are increasingly calling for the arrest of Musk over his exposing the massive grooming scandal in England.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hostage talks have essentially collapsed due to Hamas backtracking to their hard line conditions.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Defense Minister Israel Katz says he has ordered the Israeli army to present him with a plan “for the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza,” if there is no hostage deal by the time incoming US president Donald Trump enters the White House.”

***
The US House has voted 243-140-1 to sanction anyone associated with the International Criminal Court’s efforts to investigate, arrest, detain, or prosecute any “protected person” of the US and its allies — namely, Israel. 45 Democrats joined Republicans in voting for the bill

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IDF prepping for increase in the tempo of operations in the coming days.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Very quiet. The new Lebanese president has become outspoken about disarming and removing Hezbollah from S Lebanon.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Israeli security forces continued to be active throughout the area.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Reports of several U.S. Coalition Airstrikes within the last few minutes on the Harf Sufyan District of Western Yemen, to the North of the Capital City of Sana’a.

At least 12 Strikes against Houthi Military Sites between the cities of Sana’a and ʽAmran.

Some confusion as to whether or not IAF struck the area as well, judging from targets hit like the power plant, etc.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Countdown is on again for Gaza. With things stable versus Hezbollah, Syria and Houthi’s and even Iran (to a limited extent), Israel can now divert ground forces to make the final push against Hamas et al.

Israel has not occupied 100% of Gaza but only areas where Hamas had major forces and installations. It has largely stayed away from declared refuge areas. Hamas has taken advantage of this by establishing new command centers in them and operating the fight against the IDF from them. Going even a far as setting up a few rocket launches in the middle of refugees to fire at Israel.

Katz’s orders will likely direct Israeli operations into these refugee areas, necessitating more relocations and leveling more terrain. With estimates of 40% of the Hamas tunnel network yet to be found (with associated arms and munitions - even hostages) the fight could locally be fierce. It will also create another refugee crisis that would serve to make the Israeli operations go quicker to mitigate global complaints.

The extent of US cooperation with Israel IAW Trump’s promise to bring ‘hell’ on Hamas is not certain at this time . I suspect that at least initially Trump will allow Israel a much freer hand in going after Hamas than biden did. In 10 days we will find out.


Iran –

Iranian General Behrouz Ethbati accuses Russia of lying to Tehran about bombing Syrian rebels, saying that “its planes were targeting the desert instead of the opposition forces.” Ethbati blamed Russia for the fall of Bashar al-Assad, explaining that Russian forces did not attack the opposition and disabled radars during the raids

OBSERVATION - Lover’s spat between Iran and Russia. Not sure this will go much farther as Iran is relying heavily on support from Russia in exchange for drones and some of Irans dwindling missile supplies.


Iraq -

Since making their agreement with the Iraqi govt a few weeks ago, Iranian backed militias have held their fire against US and Israel.


Lebanon -

The new Lebanese president has come out to state that Hezbollah will be disarmed across the entire country and removed from S Lebanon.


Syria -

Turkey says that France should take back its own ISIS prisoners from Syria instead of considering military deployment to establish a ceasefire with SDF along the Turkish border

Turkish Defense Ministry warns it will continue operations across the border in Syria if “terrorist groups” do not” surrender their weapons

OBSERVATION - Turkey and its supported proxy continue to press attacks against Kurdish SDF forces in N Syria. So far the new regime in Damascus has had little to say about it. They have been working with SDF to try to come into an agreement on unity, but as long as Turkey presses the attacks in the north, and Turkish support to the new regime, they are rightly reluctant.

Turkish attacks are also getting close to US forces in the region and could trigger some severe consequences.

***
It is becoming apparent that many gulf Arab states are working hard to gain the favor of Syria and supplant Turkey as its major supporter. Much of this effort comes from offers of aid and reconstruction efforts designed to edge Turkey away from influencing the govt. This is due in large part to the observation that Turkey intends to eventually work to grow the restoration of the Ottoman caliphate on Syrian backs with these Arab gulf states in the cross hairs.


Turkey –

See Syria above


Venezuela -

Aides to Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado said she was detained Thursday, followed moments later by official denials, in a confusing episode that capped a day of protests seeking to block President Nicolás Maduro from clinging to power.

It’s not clear exactly what transpired after Machado bid farewell to hundreds of supporters, hopped on a motorcycle and raced with her security convoy through the empty streets of eastern Caracas to an undisclosed location.

At 3:21 p.m. local time, Machado’s press team said in a social media post that security forces “violently intercepted” her convoy. Her aides later confirmed to The Associated Press that the opposition hardliner had been detained, and international condemnation immediately poured from leaders in Latin America and beyond demanding her release.

But about an hour later, a 20-second video of Machado was posted online by a Maduro supporter in which the opposition leader said she was followed after leaving the rally and that she had dropped her purse. “I’m good, I’m safe,” Machado said in a raspy voice, adding “Venezuela will be free.”

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/venezuelan-opposition-leader-maria-corina-machado-arrested-after-anti-maduro-protest

OBSERVATIONS - This event could trigger the renewal of protests and riots against Maduro’s govt.


Misc of Note –

Using this to hang the ongoing LA firestorm. A lot of bullet items.

The wildfires in the Los Angeles area are still ongoing and continuing to spread. Tens of thousands of total acres in flame and less that 1% containment. Winds are forecast to increase today after a period of lowered winds yesterday.

Anarchy is growing with arsons setting new blazes and in some instances ignited by bands of looters who set the fire to generate an evacuation order, then sweep in to take what they can. Newsom is deploying California National Guard MP units to Los Angeles wildfires, says, “Looting will not be tolerated.”

One arsonist was captured by the public and held until police arrived. The individual was known to be a homeless person.

The death toll from wildfires in Los Angeles has risen to 10 from seven, Los Angeles County’s Medical Examiner said.

Calfire map of blazes as of 1000 PM yesterday -

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/1536/cpsprodpb/2b23/live/c4800bf0-cf3f-11ef-94cb-5f844ceb9e30.png.webp

Leading up to this weeks fires, a crime wave of fire hydrant thefts in Los Angeles has been hindering fire fighters’ efforts to save lives and property, even before this week’s deadly fires broke out in the area.

Hundreds of L.A. fire hydrants have been stolen from the ground over the past two years, with the surge in thefts appearing to peak last June.

“Catalytic converters, bronze statues, copper wire: Nothing is safe from theft in Los Angeles. And as of the last couple years, you can now add fire hydrants to the list,” LAist reported at the time:

“Between January 2023 and May 2024, more than 300 fire hydrants were stolen from L.A. County streets, according to data from the Golden State Water Company, which manages the fire hydrants. That’s led to a $1.2 million loss for the company.”
“The first half of 2024, it’s just really ramped up,” the district’s the Golden State Water Company general manager, Kate Nutting, told The L.A. Times.

“It is a big public safety issue,” Nutting warned.

To remove the hydrants from the ground, thieves have either unscrewed the bolts holding the hydrants in place – or simply rammed the hydrants with their vehicles.

https://www.mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/la-hit-fire-hydrant-crime-wave-prior-current-fires

RELATED - LAFD reportedly canceled their annual fire hydrant testing a few weeks ago citing “fiscal challenges.”

U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) has released a statement saying that a total of 8 C-130 aircraft equipped with Modular Aerial Fire Fighting Systems (MAFFS) have been sent to the Channel Islands in Southern California to assist in the ongoing firefighting operations in the Los Angeles area. While this isn’t new news, the release provides additional insights into the units involved and the time frame for their deployment.
Additionally, March Air Reserve Base has been designated as a FEMA Incident Support base for the “forward distribution of supplies and equipment.”

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1877518732873891854?s=46&t=nfRT-Yioj0xALNzJelzFcA

OBSERVATIONS - This fire disaster and fiasco has uncovered the convergence of everything the progressive left stands for and they are desperately trying to spin it off on someone or something else.

Santa Anna winds are a regular event this time of year and the weather service was forecasting much stronger than usuals winds. Historically, major fires have occurred under these conditions. What was the short term response to these warnings?

The mayor ignores warnings and flies of to Africa for fun and games, making no preparations for potential disaster.

Even the LGBT fire chief warned funding cuts were dangerously hurting the departments capabilities to address disasters (perhaps they also spent too much on LGBT and DEI boondoggles) Speaking of the LGBT fire chief, her policies left the department undermanned and ill prepared for the firestorm

The woke woman uncharge of the water system left reservoirs empty with full knowledge that they were heading into peak fire season, trying to blame it on everyone else (ie one excuse was that it was the peoples fault for using water)

State policies forwarded by Newscum (a term i’ve used even before Trump did) forced extreme cutbacks in water supplies via the California Aqueduct as well as prohibited removal of fuels in the region.

In part I don’t feel bad for the people of LA - they voted for this, consistently. Now the chickens have come home to roost. Many of the loudest winers are the big name Hollywood lefties.

OTOH I do feel for some of the general population - though again, most voted for these imbeciles and grifters into office - because they lost their workplaces and homes.

Will these fires create any change in the awareness of the blue population of Kalifornia? IDK, perhaps the biblical phrase “dog returns to its vomit” could be applicable. The incompetency of the LA leadership - from the mayor on down - is deep and would be a massive task to cauterize the damage caused by liberal DEI policies and return common sense to govt. Same goes for newscum on down at the state level. They are too invested in policies and actions that tear the state down to suddenly do a 180 and start thinking of its citizens first.

Lets add another layer to the mess that democrat policies have created. News has already noted that in the months preceding these fires, insurance companies have been pulling policies and even leaving the state due to hostile regulatory policies and allowance of excess vegetation to endanger properties and cities. The remaining companies will be even more reluctant to reinsure or continue policies barring significant changes by the state. If they do, rates will skyrocket, and they have to or the companies will go out of business, very fast.

Kalifornia better hope and pray that the “Big One” continues to hold off. That could crash what remains of the Kalifornia economy as well as stress the US economy.


52 posted on 01/10/2025 7:21:51 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

The inauguration poses a significant target due to the numbers of people expected to be present for the event.


Economy- HIGH Threat - as of Jan 1, 2025

The devastating Los Angeles wildfires have left many Californians wondering about the future of a home insurance industry that was already in crisis. Most of California’s major insurers cut coverage after wildfires in 2017 and 2018, when they paid out around twice as much in claims and expenses as they received in premiums, the New York Times reports. CNN reports that, according to the California Department of Insurance, insurance companies declined to renew 2.8 million homeowner policies between 2020 and 2022, including more than 500,000 in Los Angeles County. Last summer, around 1,600 homeowners in Pacific Palisades lost coverage when State Farm dropped policies in the Santa Monica Mountains due to wildfire risks.

OBSERVATION - The insurance industry has been reeling from recent disasters and this one my cause a lot of chaos as things look to rebuild in LA. A large part of Kalifornia’s problems are burdensome regulations on the industry which prohibits rates from reflecting risks.

***
The final jobs report under President Joe Biden is in—and it’s a strong finish. The US economy added 256,000 jobs in December, far exceeding expectations.
The unemployment rate dipped to 4.1%, while wages grew 3.9% over the past year—well above the 2.7% inflation rate.

OBSERVATION - High probability that these numbers will eventually be revised way down.


POLITICAL FRONT –

The US House of Representatives passed the Illegitimate Court Counteraction Act today (Thursday) to impose sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) and its Chief Prosecutor, Karim Khan, in response to its arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. The legislation passed 243-140. 198 Republicans and 45 Democrats voted in favor of the bill. All “Nay” votes came from Democrats, including House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY), and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif).

***
President-elect Donald Trump is preparing more than 100 executive orders starting day one of the new White House, in what amounts to a shock-and-awe campaign on border security, deportations and a rush of other policy priorities.

https://www.newsmax.com/us/trump-order-transition/2025/01/10/id/1194663/

OBSERVATION - None too soon.

***
Trump sentenced with unconditional discharge in NYC hush money case. No jail time, no fine, no punishment - other than being branded as a convicted felon.

OBSERVATION - Scott Adams said it very well on “X” -

“The lawfare against Trump didn’t simply fail.
It tore the lid off the corrupt Democrat machine and let us all watch.
This is a perfect ending. Anything cleaner would have let us forget. Now, every time Dems call Trump a felon, we get to remember what they did to the country.
Their Scarlet Letter strategy was as dumb as their leadership.”

https://x.com/ScottAdamsSays/status/1878076438106218593

***
Trump’s incoming National Security Adviser Mike Waltz says ALL intelligence officials assigned to the National Security Council under Biden must leave by 12:01 p.m. Eastern on Inauguration Day.

OBSERVATION - The first of many house cleaning operations. Hopefully, prosecutions will be soon to follow.


Biden / Harris Watch –

biden set to give is farewell address this coming Wednesday


Illegal Immigration –

About 600,000 Venezuelans and more than 230,000 Salvadorans already living in the United States can legally remain another 18 months, the Department of Homeland Security said Friday, barely a week before President-elect Donald Trump takes office with promises of hardline immigration policies.

Biden’s administration has strongly supported Temporary Protected Status, which he has broadly expanded to cover about 1 million people. TPS faces an uncertain future under Trump, who tried to sharply curtail its use during his first term as president. Federal regulations would allow the extensions to be terminated early, although that’s never been done before.

Homeland Security also extended TPS for more than 103,000 Ukrainians and 1,900 Sudanese that are already living in the U.S.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/biden-extends-time-us-venezuelans-salvadorans-trump-immigration-rcna187235

OBSERVATION - Throwing more speed bumps to slow Trump’s agenda.

***
Border Patrol agents uncovered a man-made tunnel connecting Ciudad Juárez to El Paso early Thursday, equipped with lighting, ventilation, and wood bracing, U.S. Customs and Border Protection officials said.

https://www.elpasotimes.com/story/news/immigration/2025/01/10/man-made-tunnel-discovered-beneath-us-mexico-border-in-el-paso-texas/77616318007/

OBSERVATION - No word on what it was used for, though it could easily handle both human as well as drug smuggling.


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Russia launched 74 Shahed drones. In total, 47 were shot down and another 27 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 11/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1570 men
+10 tanks
+18 AFVs
+28 artillery systems
+1 AD system

On Jan 10, SBU drones overloaded Russian air defense, followed by a direct hit by a “Neptune” missile near Chaltyr. The target: a depot storing reconnaissance drones & ammunition. Locals reported explosions all night, including secondary detonations.
Overnight Ukrainian UAVs targeted Kotovsk, Tambov region. At least 11 injuries reported after debris hit an apartment building. Drones also hit Dzhankoy, Anapa, Berdyansk, Slavyansk-na-Kubani, Voronezh, Feodosia, Kerch, Kursk, and Novorossiysk overnight.

At Novorossiysk Ukrainian UAVs struck an oil storage and loading facility.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to press the attack across the whole front.

Summary —

The center of Russian efforts continue to be around Pokrovsk. Moderately heavy combat reflected by overnight Russian losses.

Ukraine has ticked up the drone campaign, while Russia continues to throw relatively ineffective Shahed attacks against Ukraine. I suspect with the uptick in Ukrainian attacks, Russia will likely launch an enhanced attack using missiles and a lot of Shaheds.

In spite of the continued pressure on Pokrovsk, there is no evidence of any major Russian breakout or success. Russian forces have picked up terrain in various locations, usually very small and limited. If Russia were to break through the lines in a substantial way, Russia would be hard pressed to be able to drive tanks and armored vehicles thru any breach given their shortages and very poor training in mobile tactics. Most recent Russia attacks have been company sized with several tanks leading 6-8 APCs or other vehicles. Most of the time, Ukraine drones spot the column coming and marshal the FPV drone swarms to stop and force Russian forces back - under fire with heavy losses. Russia would need to manage armor maneuvers at the battalion and higher to exploit any breakthroughs.


Poland –

Poland’s prime minister has assured Benjamin Netanyahu that he will have safe passage and won’t be arrested during his visit this month to mark the 80th anniversary of the liberation of Auschwitz.

Polish President Andrzej Duda urged the government to ensure Netanyahu’s safety, citing the “exceptional circumstances” of the event, according to a letter obtained by Bloomberg News.

Netanyahu has not travelled abroad since the ICC arrest warrant was issued in November. He has only visited the United States twice since the 7 October 2023 Aqsa Flood.
Source: Bloomberg

OBSERVATION - In spite of the assurance, I would be very skeptical of the ability of the Polish PM and President to keep their promises.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Some glimmer of hope of a hostage release but very slim absent any significant Hamas concession, which doesn’t appear to be coming.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

A senior Israeli official also stated on Saturday that progress has been made in negotiations over the hostage deal in Qatar. He noted that an ongoing assessment is underway to determine whether this progress justifies elevating the Israeli delegation by sending the Mossad chief, Shin Bet director, and Maj.-Gen. Nitzan Alon to Doha. According to the official, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to decide on the matter later today.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/2025-01-11/live-updates-837023

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

Not very much action overnight

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

US representatives stating that Israel will be out of S Lebanon at the end of the 60 cease fire period.

——— JUDEA AND SAMARIA——————————-

Relatively calm overnight

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Between 30-40 strikes were carried out this morning (yesterday) by U.S. and Israeli Forces on Houthi military and infrastructure sites near the cities of Sana’a, Amran, and Hodeida in Western Yemen. While coordinated, these do not appear to have been Joint-Strikes by the two countries.

The IDF confirms that IAF fighter jets struck Houthi military targets in Yemen, including the Hezyaz power station and the Hodeidah and Ras Isa ports.

Strikes in Sanaa were reportedly carried out by US forces.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Clock is ticking down to the return of Trump to the WH and actions by combatants in the ME are apparently waiting for that dynamic to change before acting further.

Hamas is trying to put up a vicious front, but they have little left to fall back on except for the few remaining alive hostages they are believed to continue to hold. And soon to be unencumbered by biden arms embargo threats, Israel is ready to drop the hammer once again to try to exterminate Hamas.

In Lebanon, there is some hope that the new president will have the backbone and support of the military to confront and disarm / disband Hezbollah throughout the country. That assessment will need some time as he has to consolidate power and rebuild the presidency which has been vacant for two years.

The Houthi’s have been facing a steadier rounds of air strikes by both US and Israel. It will take a long term campaign to shut down the Houthi threat. Israel seeks to shorten the period via the hunt for Houthi leadership and taking them out.

Iran continues to beat its chest and showing off strategic facilities or public consumption. Latest is an underground missile complex that they claim participated in the last missile strike against Israel. Such displays of Iranian ‘power’ worked to deter in the past - but that is the past. Current realities are their missile attacks have not been successful, they have lost the vast majority of their key anti aircraft defenses and very soon, a Trump administration more willing to let Israel have its way in addition to very likely contributing some very BIG bunker buster bombs is on its way in.

This is also Iran’s way of attempting to show strength to the rest of the arab world following its embarrassing losses from the latest Israeli air strikes, heavy losses of Hezbollah and being chased out of Syria. Iran faces a rough decision - strike Israel now or face bigger strikes in the next months.

Finally, covert efforts by Iran to arm islamic terrorists in Judea and Samaria are expected to continue. Here they face two challenges - the PA and Israeli Security forces. With very little preparation like Hamas and Hezbollah has been able to make for a long term fight, they are limited to a large part to man portable weapons (rifles, RPGs, IEDs etc.) Israel has no qualms about having to rubble hostile arab areas like they have Gaza and Lebanon. And the PA is desperate to put them down to protect their rule over the territories. Action in this area is expected to rise in the short term.


Syria -

Lebanon PM Mikati meets Syria leader A-Sharaa in Damascus. This is the first visit of a Lebanese PM in Damascus since 2010

***
The Intelligence Directorate of the Syrian Transitional Government has now said that they stopped an attack by the Islamic State (ISIS) on the Sayeda Zeinab shrine on the outskirts of Damascus. The group was intercepted and arrested before they could carry out the attack on the shrine. If true, this would not be the first time that ISIS has targeted the shrine—with a 2017 attack that claimed the lives of 40 people being the most deadly.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1878071104301871571

OBSERVATION - No honor among terrorists.


Turkey –

(ISW). Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan said on January 10 that the HTS-led interim Syrian government should be given the opportunity to address Kurdish militants’ presence within the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) before Turkey takes military action.

OBSERVATION - Turkey is fixated on killing the Kurds wherever they can find them. They are facing two challenges in Syria. First, Turkey risks hitting US forces in these same regions, as the US and Kurds have been going after elements of ISIS in a combined way.

Second, Kurds are moving separately to come into some sort of agreement with the new Syrian regime that would grant them recognition and hold off further Turkish attacks. There are moves on to swing the new govt away from Turkey’s aggressive desires for the region, even though they backed the new regime.


Venezuela -

The Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has now been sworn in for his third, and hopefully final, term. This comes after the arrest and subsequent release of former opposition candidate and opposition leader María Corina Machado. It’s important to remember that the U.S. and many other nations do not recognize him as the winner of the Venezuelan elections and instead recognize Edmundo González Urrutia, who has had to flee the country, as the true winner of the rigged elections.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1877736162162344046


Misc of Note –

Using this to hang the ongoing LA firestorm. A lot of bullet items.

***
Mayor Bass pulled 17 million from fire fighting budget for homelessness. Well she got a return on that as now there are thousands more who are homeless.

***
Winds decreased yesterday allowing for some progress against the fires. However, winds are expected to pick up once again today, fanning hot spots into infernos.

The Palisades Fire, which stretches for over 22,000 acres and is only 8% contained, has passed through the Mandeville Canyon and is now heading towards neighborhoods in the San Fernando Valley; with mandatory evacuations being issued for thousands of additional residents.

***
Is she or is she not fired? That is the question this morning after yesterday’s actions.
The DailyMail is reporting that LA Fire Chief Kristin Crowley was fired by Mayor Karen Bass on Friday afternoon.

Bass reportedly fired Crowley just hours after Crowley said city leadership “failed” the fire department.

“Kristin was summoned by Bass this afternoon, about 4pm. She came back from that meeting, hugged her staff goodbye and left. She said she was fired,” a source told the outlet.

Hours earlier, Crowley ripped Bass for budget cuts that “severely limited the department’s capacity to prepare for, train for, & respond to large-scale emergencies, including wildfires.”

Bass’ office has denied allegations that Crowley was fired by the mayor.

***
Death toll has risen by 1 to eleven.

***
newscum is already working to have burned up areas rezoned from R1 to R3 - so that apartment buildings can be built. Wonder who he has in mind to occupy those apartments . . . .


53 posted on 01/11/2025 6:34:02 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla.


54 posted on 01/11/2025 7:26:41 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla

Do you think that there’s a possibility that the jobs report is better as a function of President Trump’s electoral win?


55 posted on 01/11/2025 3:38:17 PM PST by Silentgypsy (In my defense, I was left unsupervised.)
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To: Silentgypsy

No, one last swing showing Biden to be great. They overestimated last fy by some million jobs. It’ll be walked back.


56 posted on 01/11/2025 4:35:49 PM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Relatively lighter post today


Globalism / Great Reset –

Conflict brewing between the EU an German politicians of AfD. EU is threatening to interfere with the voting results - over riding Germany’s sovereign rights - to prevent any shift to the right in the parliament. In part, this is driven by Musk’s support of the party and allowing them to use “X” as a platform to put their message out to Germans.

As a prototype of a global governing mechanism, the EU has to silence opposing views because the views of the EU cannot stand investigation in the light of day. This will be a main component of any eventual global govt structure - censorship of opposing views. Not just censorship, but making such statements a criminal offense.


CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Jan 1, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

Still monitoring potential actions on Jan 20th.

***
Massive, organized gangs of looters are roaming evacuated zones in LA. Police and newly deployed NG Military Police units are having difficulties securing these areas.


Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of Jan 2, 2025
Danger date - Jan 20th

The inauguration poses a significant target due to the numbers of people expected to be present for the event.


POLITICAL FRONT –

Special counsel Jack Smith has resigned. Hopefully he will be pursued by DoJ for his illegals actions in his cases against Trump.

***
More than a dozen of President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees will face confirmation hearings in the Senate next week.

The back-to-back Senate hearings are likely to prove the first major test of Trump’s second term in office, as some of the president-elect’s selections have stoked controversy on both sides of the aisle in recent months.

OBSERVATION - This will be the initial key fights for Trump and see how squishy the RINOs are. Schumer has designs to turn these hearings into circuses.


INTERNATIONAL GENERAL –

Trump’s banter about making Greenland a new US territory has found some fertile ground in Greenland. Leadership there is sour towards continued Dutch rule, but do not want US either, but is apparently very willing to host US military bases.


Biden / Harris Watch –

Note - This section will soon be converted over to Trump Watch.


Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Dec 18, 2024


Illegal Immigration –


Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures cooling into the 20-30 with rain and snow.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Overnight, Ukrainian forces repelled another big Shahed drone attack. Out of 94 launched, 60 were shot down and another 34 were suppressed by electronic warfare.

Russian losses per 12/01/25 reported by the Ukrainian General Staff.

+1750 men
+5 tanks
+18 AFVs
+22 artillery systems

Ukraine claimed responsibility for a drone attack on Russia’s Taneco oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, sparking a large fire more than 700 miles into Russian territory. Taneco is one of the largest and most modern refineries in Russia, with a processing capacity of over 16 million tons of oil per year.

Kursk Front -
Number of Russia counter attacks are down.

Ukraine claims to have captured two wounded NK soldiers and is interrogating them. Initial information indicates that NK units are conducting ‘meat’ attacks where human waves try to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russia continues to press the attack across the whole front.

Summary —
Russia continues to take heavy losses even though there seems to be a minor overall decline in actual attacks.

Russia also continues to throw massive numbers of Shahed drones at Ukraine with very little return on the effort. After the initial shock of the deployment of these drones, like all other areas of war, counter measures have been developed and in Ukraine’s case, very effective ones. In this case, EW has increased Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.


Belarus -

Just a reminder, the large Russia Shahed drone attacks result in up to a dozen or more drones being spoofed to fly into Belarus. In most instances they are not interfered with, but on occasion they are shot down.


ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Lebanon moving forward with replacement of Hezbollah elements in S Lebanon.

——— GAZA FRONT / HAMAS ———————————-

IAF conducted drone strikes on identified Hamas elements.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army says it carried out a drone strike earlier today in southern Lebanon after spotting several Hezbollah operatives leaving a building known to be used by the terror group. The strike hit the operatives “to remove a threat,” the military says. According to Lebanese media, the strike was carried out in the village of Kounine.

***
The Lebanese army says it is completing its deployment of troops to the western sector of southern Lebanon, following the withdrawal of Israeli forces. In a post on X, the Lebanese Armed Forces says it is deploying to the border towns and villages of Naqoura, Aalma ash-Shaab, Dhayra, Aitaroun, Bint Jbeil, Tayr Harfa, Majdal Zoun, Salhani, and Qouzah.

——— ASSESSMENT AND FUTURE OPERATIONS ————————-

Overall, the region has the appearance of relative calmer conditions. This seems to be part of the new status quo of an ebb and flow intensity of action.

Tensions continue to rise in Judea and Samaria. IAF reports that since Oct 7, forces have made around 100 airstrikes on the territories. The increasing use of airstrikes has been an unusual development from previous uprisings. Many of these strikes have been from drones, but a number of heavier strikes have been in the mix as well.


Iraq -

Iraqi Interior Minister to Al-Hadath: We are coordinating with the “SDF” regarding the areas it controls through the international coalition


Saudi Arabia –

The Arab-International Meeting on Syria Begins in the Saudi Capital, Riyadh


Syria -

The new govt continues to meet with foreign dignitaries to legitimize their rule.


Misc of Note –

Using this to hang the ongoing LA firestorm. A lot of bullet items.

***
Death count now at 16.

The Palisades wildfire reached California’s Brentwood neighborhood, where Kamala Harris owns a home, on Saturday. The community is under an evacuation order.

After a period of calmer winds, the National Weather Service warned that strong Santa Ana winds could soon return. Winds picked up over night driving the Palisades fire to the edge of Brentwood. Next week could be as nearly disastrous as last week if the winds come out as forecast.



57 posted on 01/12/2025 5:27:34 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

aargh, ping to the above


58 posted on 01/12/2025 5:28:18 AM PST by Godzilla (“When tyranny becomes law, rebellion becomes duty” - Thomas Jefferson)
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To: Godzilla

Thanks Godzilla


59 posted on 01/12/2025 7:13:46 AM PST by PGalt (Past Peak Civilization?)
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To: Godzilla
As a prototype of a global governing mechanism, the EU has to silence opposing views because the views of the EU cannot stand investigation in the light of day. This will be a main component of any eventual global govt structure - censorship of opposing views. Not just censorship, but making such statements a criminal offense.

Without Trump coming down the escalator years ago we would have been part of that horror. It's what WOKE was all about...

60 posted on 01/12/2025 8:14:35 AM PST by GOPJ (AMERICA FOR AMERICANS if anyone wants to live in an overpopulated hellhole they can MOVE there..)
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